Bubble Watch - March 5 and March 6

[jncuse]

Saturday will be perhaps the most active day for bubble watchers all year. So many games that matter. What we will need for the rest of the season will be clearer.

Obviously the Syracuse - FSU game steals the spotlight. But 8 other games of significance will have tipped off by 2:30. I will keep an eye on things while we take down the Noles.

Updated Matrix Rankings

The Matrix had 63 brackets updated so far today. Below are the rankings of the teams that are not quite locks (teams that may need to win a game or more)

I am ranking them so you can see teams we are ahead of on the bubble. Many of those teams below us have challenging road games.

Obviously these are not "official" standings by any means, but it is good to see that people that are looking to drop a team are looking at other teams before us.

IN (not locks, out of 63)
Pitt - 63... (Sat 2:00 - AT Georgia Tech)
Providence - 63... (Sat 12:30 - AT St. John's)
Vanderbilt - 62... (Sat 12;00 - AT Texas A&M)
USC - 62... (Sat 4:00 - vs Oregon)
Butler - 62...... (Sat 2:30 - vs Marquette)
Syracuse - 61*... (Sat 2:00 - AT Florida St)
VCU - 61 ...... (Sat 8:00 - AT Dayton)
St. Bona - 59.... (Sat 8:00 - AT St Louis)
UConn - 56...... (Sun 2:00 - vs UCF)
South Carol - 55.. (Sat 5:00 - AT Arkansas)
Oregon St - 54... (Sat 6:30 - AT UCLA)
Michigan - 49... (Sat 9:00 - vs Iowa)
Cincinnati - 47... (Sun Noon - vs SMU)
Tulsa - 36...... (Sat 5:00 - vs South Florida)

OUT
Temple - 46*... (Sun 3:00 - AT Tulane)
Gonzaga - 23 ... (Sat - midnight - vs Portland, WCC quarterfinal)
Florida - 11...... (Sat 7:30 - AT Missouri)
George Wash - 5 (Sat 3:30 - AT Davidson)
Houston - 4 ... (Done for Regular Season)
Stanford - 1 .... (Sat 4:00 - AT Arizona)
Florida St - 1 ... (Sat 2:00 vs Syracuse)

NO VOTES, But a Big Win and a Run could make them contenders.
Ohio St at Michigan St (Sat 12:00)
LSU at Kentucky (Sat 2:00)
Creighton at Xavier (Sat 2:30)
Alabama at Georgia (Sat 4:00)

Bubble Buster Games
San Diego St vs UNLV (Sat 10:00, regular season game)
St. Mary's vs Team X (Sat 10:00, WCC quarterfinal)
Wichita St vs Northern Iowa (Sat 3;30, MVC Semifinal)
Monmouth vs Team X ( Sun 4:30, MAAC Semifinal)


* Send complaints here. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/ Terrible, just terrible.

** reversed with Tulsa as I sense some are still placing them here because they lead the AAC and not because they are an at-large. But they are in the at large discussion now.


Observations

• An interesting thing to look at is the schedules of teams behind Tulsa and VCU on the in side... some of those teams are going to lose tomorrow as are a few teams just a tad above us.

• If you were not convinced before, this should make it clear that a win over FSU clinches this thing. Look at the bubble line -- not strong. Look at the teams behind us. As a group they have tough games tomorrow - Not enough for us to be caught by enough teams if we win tomorrow

• If there is a lack of bubble busters, it should be clear we are not out of it with a loss. We lose, we will stay above the line by the end of the weekend. I'm not going to speculate any more on our chances if we lose unless it actually happens..
• 
  
• The unthinkable (and I am not going to mention it today) is starting to rise in possibility.

• 4 teams that appear to be well out have huge road games as opportunities to re-start their resume. Stanforf at Arizona, Ohio St at Michigan St, LSU at Kentucky, Creighton at Xavier. If it happens they are new contenders... but I think most will get knocked out with losses.

I am still going the matchup pictures after this so you can see team records and the lines.

Enjoy the day folks,,, and hopefully an Orange win.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple - 4 Other Teams above the line lose tomorrow - that would be a very nice outcome.

The realistic lost opportunities that can go either way will make up my top 5 games of the day (other than Syracuse(

Clear Lock if they win

Ohio St probably moves in with one game --- of course they are a 15 point dog. In fact Providence below has more chances up losing to St. John's.

Same as Ohio St, except maybe a little farther back if they win.. But they are a 13 point dog

 

[jncuse]

Game of the Day

Let's go Orange

Top 5 Game of the Day - Loss Opportunity to non Tourney team

No line yet. Should be Butler -8 or -9

See Ohio St, see LSU. Creighton should be about an 8 or 9 point dog.

 

[jncuse]

Not an easy game for a team like GW that needs to make something happen.

Tourney Game - We want Wichita St to win. They will be around an 8 point favourite.

Both teams need this game and to win 2 or 3 extra games in the SEC.

See Ohio St, See LSU. Key game for Stanford, but they are 13 point dogs.

 

[pearl31]

Great job (as always) jn. To help out a bit with which important games are when, I thought I'd throw together listings by time.

Here are the games on Saturday, 3/5 that have direct or indirect significance to Syracuse (note that there are a few potential others I have left off because I either think it's incredibly unlikely of it going our way, such as South Florida @ Tulsa, or just not relevant enough). I have bolded each team we should be rooting for...

Noon EST
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M
NC St @ Notre Dame
Clemson @ Boston College
Ohio St @ Michigan St

2:00 EST
LSU @ Kentucky
Pitt @ Georgia Tech

2:30 EST
Creighton @ Xavier
Marquette @ Butler

3:00 EST
Kansas St @ Texas Tech

3:30 EST
George Washington @ Davidson

4:00 EST
Oregon @ USC
Alabama @ Georgia
Stanford @ Arizona

5:00 EST
South Carolina @ Arkansas

6:30 EST
Oregon St @ UCLA

7:30 EST
Florida @ Missouri

8:00 EST
St. Bonaventure @ St. Louis
VCU @ Dayton
Iowa @ Michigan

10:00 EST
UNLV @ San Diego St

 

[jncuse]

This obviously locks it up for USC if they win such a quality game

BYU is far out at this point. But they would play Gonzaga tomorrow. Not sure what is better - BYU to lose and take a way a top 100 win opportunity for Gonzaga. Or have BYU win and a better opponent for Gonzaga Sunday.


Top 5 Game of the Day - Loss Opportunity to a Non Tourney Team

 

[jncuse]

Top 5 Game of the Day - Loss Opportunity against a non tourney team

Florida should win, but they need more substance to get back in the picture

Trap game for the Bonnies after some recent big wins. They escaped with a 3 point win at home earlier this season.

Top 5 Game of the Day - Avoid Top 25 Win for Michigan

 

[pearl31]

yeah I feel like the Org St/UCLA and Iowa/Mich games are the 2 biggest of the day

 

[jncuse]

Top 5 Game of the Day - Loss opportunity for an "in" team just below us.

While the MWC is way down, I would hate to see a team with a 16-2 MWC regular season record as an at large candidate. This is a REGULAR SEASON GAME, so cheer for UNLV in this one.

Gonzaga is such a tough resume to read. But they have to be liking everybody losing around them. They may or may not be in of now in the committee's view

10:00 (WCC Quarterfinal)
Loyola Marymount 14-16
St. Mary's 24-4
(Estimated Line is St. Mary's -14)

 

[jncuse]

Something to think About

Of the 14 teams above that are "In" but not locks, 7 are underdogs this weekend (although slight), and 2 others are playing "EVEN" games.

So there could be a lot of losses above the line tomorrow. But how many teams below the line can realistically take advantage of that? As I hinted at in my first post, based on what happens tomorrow the once unthinkable can become a real possibility... but I am not discussing it any further until I know what happens in the FSU game.

 

[jncuse]

Great job (as always) jn. To help out a bit with which important games are when, I thought I'd throw together listings by time.

Here are the games on Saturday, 3/5 that have direct or indirect significance to Syracuse (note that there are a few potential others I have left off because I either think it's incredibly unlikely of it going our way, such as South Florida @ Tulsa, or just not relevant enough). I have bolded each team we should be rooting for...

Noon EST
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M
NC St @ Notre Dame
Clemson @ Boston College
Ohio St @ Michigan St

2:00 EST
LSU @ Kentucky
Pitt @ Georgia Tech

2:30 EST
Creighton @ Xavier
Marquette @ Butler

3:00 EST
Kansas St @ Texas Tech

3:30 EST
George Washington @ Davidson

4:00 EST
Oregon @ USC
Alabama @ Georgia
Stanford @ Arizona

5:00 EST
South Carolina @ Arkansas

6:30 EST
Oregon St @ UCLA

7:30 EST
Florida @ Missouri

8:00 EST
St. Bonaventure @ St. Louis
VCU @ Dayton
Iowa @ Michigan

10:00 EST
UNLV @ San Diego St

Good idea Pearl -- makes everything that much clearer, in terms of sched and who to cheer for.

 

[jncuse]

yeah I feel like the Org St/UCLA and Iowa/Mich games are the 2 biggest of the day

I agree with that. I would put South Carolina at Arkansas as #3. Then the SMU at Cincy game on Sunday.

I put Pitt as top 5, but even if Pitt loses, it may run out of time to lose it's spot.

 

[jncuse]

I updated the Standings as the Matrix was updated tonight with 24 new brackets from today.

Everything pretty much stayed the same. One notable mistake I had made originally was that I had said Florida had no votes. They are actually at 11 of 63 right now. so they are 2nd or 3rd best outside of the line right now. Their resume sort of sucks, but with an easy road win tomorrow, they may get very close to the bubble line as we enter conference play.

No one below the line has a reasonable chance of doing something really beneficial tomorrow. Other than the long shots with a chance to win a road game, the only reasonable win possilbe is George Washington getting a top 100 road win at Davidson.

 

[jncuse]

1:00 Update (All Good so Far)

At the Half
Vanderbilt down 7 at Texas AM
Ohio St down 10 at Michigan St

Providence up 16 at St. John's, 14 minutes into the game. They will avoid that bad loss (not that it was expected)

 

[721Comstock]

ND is LIGHTING UP NC State right now. Up by 15, after it had been cut to 1.

 

[jncuse]

Totally irrelevant to the bubble

• looks like BC will pull off the winless season -- BC Down 24

• Did Minny suspend every scholly? I know the suspended 3 earlier this week. Down 31-9 at Rutgers!!! Looks like Rutgers will win a game. It would be glorious to see them blow this.

 

[jncuse]

2:00 Update

It's not a bad loss on the road. They are still certainly above the line, but they don't want to do anything stupid in their first SEC game next week.

The announcers speculated that they would be fine if they win their first 2 Big 10 games. That was definetely incorrect.

Providence still cruising up 14 at St. John's.

Today's Record: Note, above the line is for teams that are not "locks", and below the line if only for teams with still a shot at an-large.

Teams Above the Line : 0-1
Teans Below the Line : 0-1

 

[jncuse]

3:00 Update

Avoid the Bad Loss, This may be enough for them -- let's see at the end of the day.

Top 100 Road Win would probably lock it up for Pitt.

Top 100 Road Win should lock it up for Syracuse. (let's win first!!)

A loss should finally finish the golden boy.

Eleswhere:
Butler up 11 vs Marquette
Creighton up 9 vs Xavier -- this would shoot them back into the teams close to the bubble line.

Today's Record

Above the Line: 1-1
Below the Line: 0-1

 

[jncuse]

4:10 Update

LSU = Done

Pitt is still alive either way, but this result was very much like Syracuse today. They now need to win next game. Let's see by end of day, perhaps GTech comes back in to play as a team that can slide in with a real run in the ACC tourney.

Comments for for both teams can be very similar to the Pitt- Gtech game above. FSU may only 2 wins in the ACC tourney. Tech may need 3. Syracuse is not out. Still a good chance with just one win, but let's see what happens by the end of the day.

Safe to call this one. Butler is in very good shape by this point. Not sure if they are a lock yet --- let's see by end of day.

Games in Progress
Creighton down 12 at Xavier
George Washington down 3 at halftime vs Davidson
Wichita up 9 against Norhthern Iowa in the MVC Semi's.
Bama up 1 against Georgia early
USC down 3 against Oregon early
BYU up 6 vs Santa Clara early
Stanford down 5 vs Arizona early

Today's Updated Record (Finals or Called Games Only)

Above the Line: 2-3
Below the Line: 1-2

 

[jncuse]

5:10 Update

A couple crucial games coming down to final 10 minutes

GW is the 3rd or 4th last team out by consensus

Let's go Wichita St -- we don't need a bubble buster.

Creighton pushed Xavier but they lost in the end.

Today's Bubble Record (Finals)
Teams Above the Line: 2-3
Teams Below the Line: 1-3

 

[pearl31]

ugh Wich St Oh Lord

I don't think they're deserving of an at-large - but I think they'll get one anyway

 

[jncuse]

6:10 Update

My guess is they get an at-large due to weaker bubble. A bit of a stinger.

The teams below the bubble have proved nothing so far today. Takes away some of the sting of Wichita.

Stanford was the last of the 4 teams out, with a chance to jump start themselves with a massive road win. The teams went 0-4.

Virginia Tech was not in view before today (because there RPI was around #100), but they merit some consideration as a bubble watch team. I will look at their resume shortly.

 

[pearl31]

hey jncuse what do you make of St. Joe's right now after losing at home today to Duquesne and blown out the other day by the Bonnies?

 

[jncuse]

6:10 Update (Part 2)

Neither was in today, but Alabama was much closer due to their win profile. Good result for us.

BYU is not really on the bubble -- I would have preferred that Gonzaga does not get a chance to beat them again.

We can call this one. USC is still in as of now, but this would have locked it for them.

Today's Record
Teams Above the Line: 2-4
Teams Below the Line: 2-6 (and that is including Virginia Tech who is a longshot)
Likely Bubble Busters - 1 Spot (Wichita)

Teams around the Bubble today are 4-10, and that is not including Wichita St loss, and giving the benefit of the doubt to V-Tech. Terrible.

 

[creatorsgam]

6:10 Update

View attachment 57092View attachment 57096

Virginia Tech was not in view before today (because there RPI was around #100), but they merit some consideration as a bubble watch team. I will look at their resume shortly.

How far "in view" relative to the good guys?