Bubble Watch - March 5 and March 6

[jncuse]

hey jncuse what do you make of St. Joe's right now after losing at home today to Duquesne and blown out the other day by the Bonnies?

That was their first bad loss all year, couple of top 50, 6-6 vs top 100. I think they are OK -- I guess they can worry if they have another bad loss in the A-10 toutney. So maybe not 100% lock, but that is a conservative take given what is going on around them.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Keep rooting for Duke and A&M to keep winning. The better they look, the better we look.

 

[jncuse]

How far "in view" relative to the good guys?

Even with the win today, Virginia Tech's current RPI is 88 (before today it had to be around 100) so that is why they were ignored.

As of now:
RPI 88
Top 50: 3-9
Top 100: 7-11
OOC SOS - 270 (5 of their OOC wins were against sub 300 teams)

Top 50 Wins (all at Home) - Virginia, Pitt, Miami
Bad Losses - RPI #269 Alabama St at Home. #114 Northwestern at Home.

Our wins are better in quantity and quality because they are on the road.
In terms of the bad losses -- Home vs Alabama St is actually well worse than at St. John's. Northwestern is basically the same as Clemson. We have Georgetown on the road as well, but that is not that bad.

Teams that pile up wins against really bad OOC teams tend to get punished by the committee -- ultimately it gets punished by huring their ability to get a decent RPI.

If they go 2-1 in the ACC, with that second win being a a top 25 win, get the RPI around 70. maybe they surprise on selection Sunday.

But despite being 10-8 in the ACC, they have alot more work to do than us.

 

[jncuse]

Keep rooting for Duke and A&M to keep winning. The better they look, the better we look.

I can cheer for Duke against UNCheat -- about the only time I can root for them.

 

[jncuse]

7:20 Update

Nice win for South Carolina after they had put themselves in trouble. I think they are a lock at this point. It's amazing that teams can turn the momentum from game to game. Unheard of (sarcasm intended for the doubters)

Easy win for Tulsa against a sub 200 RPI at home. Win doesn't help them, but teams ahead of them did lose today.

We really need Oregon St to lose this one.

Today's Record
Teams Above the Line: 4-4
Teams Below the Line: 2-6 (Florida St. who still has work to do, and Virginia Tech who has a whole lot of work to do. So nobody outsdie the bubble has played themselves in yet today )
Likely Bubble Busters - 1 Spot (Wichita)

 

[jncuse]

So what does Pitt vs Syracuse mean?

A win vs Pitt is worth much more than a win vs Virginia Tech.

IMO, it means that win next game and we are in. I felt very strongly that 1 win in the ACC would likely be enough (I was using 75-80%) before today. Now it's 100% if we win.

- It's a quality win
- It should move us ahead of Pitt who will also be on that line
- Teams are losing today as expected on both sides.

Now of course the obvious setback is that our % chance of winning is down quite a bit. This game scares the crap out of me.

Can we get in with a Loss to Pitt?

This, IMO, now becomes the more relevant question.

Our probabilities are moving up. No serious bubble team has won today except for FSU, and they are still behind us. Who is going to steal the bid in terms of teams looking for an at-large.

Wichita St losing hurt, but I think the amount of bubble busters can still stay at two.

And one good thing is that if we lose it's not a "bad" loss.

Let's reassess this one in detail after tomorrow's final regular season games. Chart the teams, and I think we might be surprised at the scenarios.

 

[MGP]

Easy win for Tulsa against a sub 200 RPI at home. Win doesn't help them, but teams ahead of them did lose today.

FWIW, Tulsa was actually down for a good portion of this game. Pulled away in the last few minutes. Oh well...

 

[jdubs30]

People have to remember not to look at this thing in a vacuum.

We finish 19-12 and 9-9, period. It doesn't matter that we lost today, our record is our record.

jncuse makes an interesting point about since we will be playing Pitt, we avoid the bad loss; also that Pitt would be a quality win it virtually locks us into the field with a W.

We are in an enviable position to most teams, as long as there aren't a bunch of crazy bid stealers we still might be OK even with a loss to Pitt

 

[jncuse]

FWIW, Tulsa was actually down for a good portion of this game. Pulled away in the last few minutes. Oh well...

I had noted they were down at halftime. Would of been a big result.

 

[jncuse]

Another disappointing result. I was really hoping that South Carolina and Oregon St would lose today. Wichita St.

There has been a lot of losses today, but those are the ones I really wanted.

We need this one to go to Iowa.

Florida had 11 of 63 votes for in before today... it will gain a few more just because teams are moving down.


Today's Records
Teams Above the Line: 5-4
Teams Below the Line: 2-6 (Neither FSU or Virginia Tech rise above the line with those wins)
Bubble Buster - 1 (MVC steals a spot with the Wichita St loss)

 

[jncuse]

11:00 Update

Big win by Dayton, they were down all of the second half. This could have locked it for VCU. This was the Sixth Loss by a team that was "In but not a lock" today. I would have really liked it if South Carolina and Oregon St had lost because I feel they are a tad behind us. But we will have to take this.

Bonnies made sure they avoided a bad road loss. I can't put a questionable A-10 team as a lock, just because the committee has made some tough choices on A-10 teams in the past 10 years.

Michigan may be the team that falls out today, as a result of the Wichita St game.

 

[MGP]

Can the WCC get 2 bids? If St. Mary's & Gonzaga both lost, could they get 3?

 

[jncuse]

Assuming that Gonzaga and St. Mary's take care of business tonight, here is what I think the consensus bubble line is. I am working under the assumption that Wichita St has an at-large

Inside (But no Lock) (it is very close amongst the teams above Tulsa)
USC
Vanderbit
Butler
Pitt
Syracuse
Oregon St
VCU
St. Bonaventure
UConn
Cincinnati
Tulsa or Michigan
OUTSIDE
Michigan or Tulsa
Gonzaga
Florida
Temple

Others with a shot but a lot of work to do - Florida St, Ohio St, Houston, Georgia, George Washington

 

[jncuse]

I would prefer if Gonzaga was in this type of trouble. St. Mary's is still in play for an at-large if they lose.

 

[jdubs30]

Can the WCC get 2 bids? If St. Mary's & Gonzaga both lost, could they get 3?

Gonzaga would have to beat St. Mary's in your scenario for that to be a possibility.

 

[jncuse]

Can the WCC get 2 bids? If St. Mary's & Gonzaga both lost, could they get 3?

I guess if St. Mary's loses tonight, and BYU beats Gonzaga tomorrow night, it's possible. That would be a major hit.

But I think Gonzaga would probably sent home in that scenario. But their "eye test" value scares me -- I think they have a good rep with the committee because they will test themselves OOC.

 

[jncuse]

Gonzaga would have to beat St. Mary's in your scenario for that to be a possibility.

I'm counting on that.

 

[MGP]

I guess if St. Mary's loses tonight, and BYU beats Gonzaga tomorrow night, it's possible. That would be a major hit.

So St. Mary's has a better resume (and better shot at at-large) than Zags right now?

 

[pearl31]

Alright, just to summarize the games that mattered for us today...

The good:
Vandy lost to A&M
Ohio St lost to Mich St
LSU lost to Kentucky
Creighton lost to Xavier
GW lost to Davidson
USC lost to Oregon
Alabama lost to Georgia
Stanford lost to Arizona
VCU lost to Dayton
Michigan lost to Iowa

The bad:
Wichita St :bang:
Butler beat Marquette
South Carolina beat Arkansas
Oregon St beat UCLA

Of those "bad" I think only the Wichita St situation and Oregon St winning could be construed as potentially damaging to us. All things considered (i.e., our loss to Fla St), we are in pretty good shape right now bubble wise.

 

[jdubs30]

Alright, just to summarize the games that mattered for us today...

The good:
Vandy lost to A&M
Ohio St lost to Mich St
LSU lost to Kentucky
Creighton lost to Xavier
GW lost to Davidson
USC lost to Oregon
Alabama lost to Georgia
Stanford lost to Arizona
VCU lost to Dayton
Michigan lost to Iowa

The bad:
Wichita St :bang:
Butler beat Marquette
South Carolina beat Arkansas
Oregon St beat UCLA

Of those "bad" I think only the Wichita St situation and Oregon St winning could be construed as potentially damaging to us. All things considered (i.e., our loss to Fla St), we are in pretty good shape right now bubble wise.

That's 10-4...I'll take it. Like you said Wichita will cost the field a bid and OSU might be in now...but Butler and South Carolina were in already most likely, so they wouldn't replace us in the field.

I'm sure jncuse will do his thing, but at first glance, here's games today that could effect us with the bolded teams being who we should root for:

SMU @ Cincy - no brainer here, a win vs. a top 25 team would be huge for the Bearcats
UCF @ UConn - a must win for UConn, but it doesn't lock them in. They can't afford a bad loss at home with their possible matchup in the AAC tourney being Cincinnati
Temple @ Tulane - I guess the positive is Temple/UConn can't help themselves TOO much today, but W's help them say afloat
Nebraska @ Northwestern - I don't think NW has much of a shot, but who knows if they make a run in the B10 tourney and beat some really teams along the way. Nebraska is 14-16 so this would be a bad loss.
Fairfield @ Monmouth - Want to avoid a Wichita type situation here, obviously. If Monmouth adavnces, they will face a really tough challenge in Iona/Siena -- Iona is the better team so we probably want Siena to win that one to make it as easy as possible for Monmouth
Wisconsin @ Purdue - Meh, Wisconsin is already in. Even if they lose today and in round 1 of the conference tournament they are probably fine.

That's it for today.

Only things that could really hurt us:
Cincy winning - CBS (as of their last updated Bracket last night) has Cincy as #1 in the First Four Out list. Obviously a win vs. SMU would put them in for now. They can really help themselves the most today.
Monmouth losing - self explanatory

It'd be nice if Tulane and UCF pulled the upsets, but it doesn't seem likely. Good thing for us is those wins don't do much for the resumes either.

Looking at the whole field/bubble, a loss to Pitt wouldn't be the dagger. Although it puts us in the really tough spot that chalk has to win pretty much every conference tournament and we can't have bubble teams winning.

CBS has us as a 10 seed (I'm not sure where we rank on the 10 line though) -- which means there's a slight buffer for us right now. Remember, in order for us to be moved out of our spot in the field, someone has to move in for us -- and as of today that hasn't happened. Oregon State and Wichitas loss probably stole someones spot, but it most likely wasn't ours; we could be out of space if 2 or 3 teams jump us though.

Thoughts jncuse?

 

[Knicks411]

I think at this point it's going to come down to the Pitt game. Is there a chance we can make it with a loss? Probably yes but so many things have to go our way.

 

[MGP]

I see we haven't moved off the first 10 line in the bracket matrix this morning - even with the Wich. St. loss. That's encouraging. They project the stolen MVC bid as a 14 seed...

 

[pearl31]

I see we haven't moved off the first 10 line in the bracket matrix this morning - even with the Wich. St. loss. That's encouraging. They project the stolen MVC bid as a 14 seed...

True, but the matrix is always slow (old brackets coming off) to reflect the current situation... Palm doesn't have Wich St in the field as an at-large, is putting them in "Probably Out" category

 

[jncuse]

I see we haven't moved off the first 10 line in the bracket matrix this morning - even with the Wich. St. loss. That's encouraging. They project the stolen MVC bid as a 14 seed...

The matrix was last updated at 9:13 last night -- it has some posting from March 5 that could have our game considered, but I suspect most are just from before yesterday. It's hard to tell which ones.

I am looking for the first matrix posting of today, and will only count the March 6 submissions. They are pretty active at this time of year, so I suspect that update will come this afternoon

 

[jncuse]

Good summary Pearl, and preview JDub. I will just quickly add the pic's.

THE AAC steals the show today

Cincy right on the line - -don't want a quality win

I know what we want, but the 17 point line speaks for itself.

This would be crushing to Temple... and it's only a 6 point line, so it is possible.

A semi-final. With Wichita St possibly getting an at-large, this becomes crucial. The next game if they win (Iona or Siena will be tough)