Bubble Watch - March 5 and March 6

[jncuse]

I just can't see at this point how we don't make it if we bear Pitt -- so it becomes the bad scenario. And as I was hinting at yesterday morning, the "unthinkable" at least has some likelihood.

No different than before, it's about the following -- but we just have a lesser resume. It probably also helps a bit that if we lose it is vs a tourney team compared to a non tourney team.

• #1 Limited Bubble Busters
• #2 - Teams that are out in P5+3 (AAC, A-10, BE) confernces do not win enough confernce games... and for most it's not a matter of just winning one game.
• #3 - How are we ranked on the teams that are not "locked" but still in in the committee view (and we have no idea we can only use the matrix as the best proxy available)

Here is an example for the 3rd point,
- Who does the committee have ahead right now -- Syracuse or Oregon St
- If it's Syracuse that is deemed ahead and they lose to Pitt, does Oregon beating a bad Arizona St team and then losing to Cal pull them ahead? Maybe because they are around 90 on the RPI but maybe not.

It is quite possible that there is going to be a lack of push up from #2, and maybe not many bubble busters. That we could always follow and make some good educated guesses on. But whether we are #31 or #33 on the at-large rankings matters right now, and that is what is basically impossible to assess.

At this point if we lose to Pitt, and we fail to get in we have no one to blame and we deserved that fate. But things can still work out in our way,

I see it as well less than 50%, but let's see what happens as new info comes in over the next week.

 

[jdubs30]

Cincy about to lock up a spot -- They went about 8 minutes without scoring and SMU couldn't take advantage. Ugly basketball from both.

Cincy probably the only lock right now for the AAC -- need them to win the AAC Tourney next week

 

[Chris02M]

Cincy isnt a lock yet

 

[orangenirvana]

Cincy isnt a lock yet

That's a big win for them, though. This should put their RPI in the low 40's.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Cincy isnt a lock yet

Need to root for UConn against Cincy next week.

 

[Chris02M]

That's a big win for them, though. This should put their RPI in the low 40's.

Yes it helps but most had them either just in or just missing.its a home win probably moves them up a little but not a full seed line

 

[jncuse]

Not sure if Cincy is a lock or not -- they are close. I think it's best to pick the 2 best teams in the AAC before the conference tourney, and hope they make the final. I think it will be Cincy and UConn -- hope everybody else stink it up.

Not sure how there bracket will shape up however. That may change things.

 

[orangenirvana]

Can someone explain why Wichita State is a lock? Is it because they're Wichita State? Their RPI is #47 and they have one good win: Utah. Is that enough to make them a guarantee?

 

[jncuse]

OK - I just noticed Cincy / UConn plays each other. That changes my assessment above.

 

[pearl31]

OK - I just noticed Cincy / UConn plays each other. That changes my assessment above.

Probably want Cincy and Temple in champ game I'm thinking - with Tulsa (and ucon) losing as early as possible

 

[orangenirvana]

Good CAA Semifinal game right now between William&Mary (RPI 61) and Hofstra (57).

 

[jdubs30]

OK - I just noticed Cincy / UConn plays each other. That changes my assessment above.

So what's our best bet? Hope Cincy beats UConn since they're closer to a lock then win the whole thing? Or hope Cincy loses and it's enough to knock them out -- but then UConn could make a run.

Root for UCF hard right now, then hope UConn loses to Cincy, then they'd be done for sure.

I think at this point we'd rather have a team OUT then 2 iffy teams that both could be in .

 

[jncuse]

Can someone explain why Wichita State is a lock? Is it because they're Wichita State? Their RPI is #47 and they have one good win: Utah. Is that enough to make them a guarantee?

I think people fear the "eye test". The committee chair on CBS halftime openly stated the early season injury factor, and its crucial for them because its the most important games of the year.

Per the Matrix
Wichita In - 22
Wichita Out - 6 (including Palm)

So certainly not everybody thinks its a lock.

 

[jncuse]

So what's our best bet? Hope Cincy beats UConn since they're closer to a lock then win the whole thing? Or hope Cincy loses and it's enough to knock them out -- but then UConn could make a run.

Root for UCF hard right now, then hope UConn loses to Cincy, then they'd be done for sure.

I think at this point we'd rather have a team OUT then 2 iffy teams that both could be in .

The AAC is such a mess.

I think UConn and Cincy are fairly close. The winner is clearly in at that point, so whoever we want them to win the tourney.

Hope Memphis and Houston create havoc on the rest of the bracket and are the other team in the final, and hope Houston did not do enough.

I don't have the bracket in front of me though. so I don't even know if that is possible.

 

[jncuse]

At the Half - AAC Still Stinks. But the teams that needed to win, will wim.

 

[jncuse]

The "We Are" AAC commercials must be embarrassing for Storrs.

So the AAC looks like this:

On One Side
1 Temple
8 Some AAC Chump

4 Cincy
5 UConn

On the Other Side

2 Tulsa
7 Some AAC Chump

3 Houston
6 Memphis

(I may have 2/3 backwards, but same conclusion)

I think the best scenario is
- Whomever wins the UConn/Cincy game, knocks out Temple, and wins the AAC
- The winner of Houston / Memphis, beats Tulsa, loses the AAC.

 

[pearl31]

The "We Are" AAC commercials must be embarrassing for Storrs.

So the AAC looks like this:

On One Side
1 Temple
8 Some AAC Chump

4 Cincy
5 UConn

On the Other Side

2 Tulsa
7 Some AAC Chump

3 Houston
6 Memphis

(I may have 2/3 backwards, but same conclusion)

I think the best scenario is
- Whomever wins the UConn/Cincy game, knocks out Temple, and wins the AAC
- The winner of Houston / Memphis, beats Tulsa, loses the AAC.

I think I agree... though I could see Houston getting some fairly strong consideration if they get to the champ game and lose - but you're right, I'll take my chances with Houston in that game over Tulsa - having Tulsa lose as early as possible is best for us

 

[Chris02M]

Can someone explain why Wichita State is a lock? Is it because they're Wichita State? Their RPI is #47 and they have one good win: Utah. Is that enough to make them a guarantee?

I dont thimk they are but im reserving the right to change my mind later

 

[upperdeck]

can someone explain how lunardi has teams seeded behind us in his brackets ahead of us in his brackatology?

 

[pearl31]

can someone explain how lunardi has teams seeded behind us in his brackets ahead of us in his brackatology?

well for one thing I don't think he's fully updated his bracket, even though it says it was updated today (3/6) - for example it is still showing Wich St sitting as a 7 seed

 

[jncuse]

The matrix was updated this morning (28 brackets were submitted today)

These are teams that may not be locks entering today. I welcome any feedback on my lock assessments.

Out of 28 brackets

ABOVE THE LINE
South Carolina - 28 ... (I think they are a lock ... they are 8-4 vs RPI top 100, and 3-1 vs top 50)
Providence - 28... (I think they are a lock - the worse they can do at this point is lose to Butler which is not punishing)
Vanberbilt - 28 ... (Many 9/10/11's on the bracket -- I don't think they want to test losing that first SEC game to Tennessee / Auburn)
Butler - 28 ... (Many 8/9, some 10's... they are close to a lock, and first game is against Providence. I don't think they need to win, just a reasonable amount of teams below them not doing what they need to do)
USC - 27 ...(Some may have them as a lock -- seem to be 9 seed in most -- but I am sure they do not want to lose to UCLA in first round)
Oregon St - 27... (9 to 11 seed in most, so certainly not a lock... may need to beat Arizona St in the first game of the AAC
St. Joseph's - 26 ... (Many view them as a lock, but I don't think they want to tempt a bad loss in first A-10 game, followed up by teams below them playing well)
Pitt - 26 ...(Can't call them a lock quite yet)
St, Bonaventure 26 - ... (Not a lock)
VCU - 25 ... (Not a lock)
Cincy 23 ... (Sure it's closer to 28 after SMU win today... but maybe not a lock)
Syracuse - 22 ... (Not a lock)
UConn - 22... (Not a lock)
Wichita St - 21... (Most controversial resume right now)
Tulsa - 20 ... (Not a lock)

BELOW THE LINE
Gonzaga 9
Michigan 6
Florida 3
Temple 22
Houston 1 (beating Memphis and Tulsa would not be enough for them, so they cannot get an at large)
BYU 1 (no shot at an at-large)

There are other teams below the line with no votes that we need to watch -- I will analyze those later.

 

[pearl31]

More and more I think it's going to come down to two things (if we lose to Pitt):

- How the "just off the radar" P5 (plus Big East) teams do in their conf tourneys: Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, Ga.Tech, Fla St, Stanford, Washington, Creighton, Maquette, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia. These are the teams we want to lose as early as possible in their tourneys. (a few of those listed would probably have to win their tourney but would still get strong consideration if they were to make it to the champ game or even Semis)

- How the committee views the AAC and A10. Just a big bubble mess with those teams right now. There is no lock in the AAC (Cinci probably closest to it after beating SMU today) and in the A10 really only Dayton is a lock (as jn says above, many regard St.Joes as lock but I don't think so). AAC could get 1-3 teams, A10 could get 2-4 teams.

And, obviously, if a team like NC St in the ACC or UCLA in the Pac12 or Penn St in the B1G goes crazy and wins their tourney - well, you know.

And lastly need Ark St, Monmouth and Valpo to win their tourneys to keep it at Wich St as the only potential lower mid-major bid stealer.

 

[jncuse]

More and more I think it's going to come down to two things (if we lose to Pitt):

- How the "just off the radar" P5 (plus Big East) teams do in their conf tourneys: Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, Ga.Tech, Fla St, Stanford, Washington, Creighton, Maquette, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia. These are the teams we want to lose as early as possible in their tourneys. (a few of those listed would probably have to win their tourney but would still get strong consideration if they were to make it to the champ game or even Semis)

- How the committee views the AAC and A10. Just a big bubble mess with those teams right now. There is no lock in the AAC (Cinci probably closest to it after beating SMU today) and in the A10 really only Dayton is a lock (as jn says above, many regard St.Joes as lock but I don't think so). AAC could get 1-3 teams, A10 could get 2-4 teams.

And, obviously, if a team like NC St in the ACC or UCLA in the Pac12 or Penn St in the B1G goes crazy and wins their tourney - well, you know.

And lastly need Ark St, Monmouth and Valpo to win their tourneys to keep it at Wich St as the only potential lower mid-major bid stealer.

I agree. 2 minor points:
1) Add San Diego St to that last group.
2) Add Virginia Tech. You were probably over conservative on some of those teams getting an at-large -- I am fairly certain Marquette and Northwestern can't get an at large. Not sure about Georgia... many of those teams may need to make the final.

 

[pearl31]

I agree. 2 minor points:
1) Add San Diego St to that last group.
2) Add Virginia Tech. You were probably over conservative on some of those teams getting an at-large -- I am fairly certain Marquette and Northwestern can't get an at large. Not sure about Georgia... many of those teams may need to make the final.

yep, forgot SD st and VaTech

 

[bpo57]

Wichita State is close to a lock IMO. They had three losses to decent comp in November when VanVleet was out of action. Since then they've had two OT losses but otherwise dominated at 16-2 in their league. I'd be shocked (no pun intended) if they didn't get in.