The bubble is weak this year so you may be right but if they got in at 7-11 I hope it is not at the expense of some mid major team that has a very good year but loses their conference tourney. I understand strength of schedule but not even winning 40% of your conference games is pushing it. At that point maybe we should just call it the P5 Tournament.
Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24
- Thread starter jncuse
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The bubble is weak this year so you may be right but if they got in at 7-11 I hope it is not at the expense of some mid major team that has a very good year but loses their conference tourney. I understand strength of schedule but not even winning 40% of your conference games is pushing it. At that point maybe we should just call it the P5 Tournament.
jncuse
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I personally have no problem putting in a team like Middle Tennessee St, over a 7-11 Pitt team, or a 7-11 Oklahoma St team. But
1) Does the committee the same way -- not last year.
2) Even if they let in a Middle Tennessee St, there are not many of that type of quality team to let in. I guess you would need to let in some A-10, AAC or MWC teams that are just not that impressive.
At best they are going 2-2, that puts them at 6-12 in the conference, they aren't getting a bid being 6 games under 500 in the league.
Yeah I'm not talking from a predictive point of view in terms of what the Committee will do. Who knows as they're a bit unpredictable and not entirely consistent from year to year. I'm more talking about philosophically I'd rather see a couple of mid-majors than some below .500 teams from a P5 conference. They just provide more charm to the tournament.
As for MTSU I think when we see where they're seeded we'll see they were not really on the bubble.
Rutgers Rutgers the game, I am actually pulling for Nwestern to get in.
MSOrange
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I am too. I can't imagine being a fan of a major conference team and never making the tournament.
MSOrange
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orangenirvana
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Don't look now but Syracuse's two great wins are gradually losing their luster.
We need to win three of our final four. Period.
We need to win three of our final four. Period.
pearl31
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ah man, not you too, nirvana!
LOOK AT THE TEAMS WE'RE COMPETING WITH
I mean, sure, it might take 11-7 to get there, and that would obviously be in our best interest. But 10-8 could easily do it. Hell, 9-9 might even do it. That's how mediocre the resumes of the bubble teams are.
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Nova over SH
WVU over T Tech
Duke over Wake-
Miami over Clemson better for bubble worse for conference4/4
Iowa state over TCU 5/5
SMU over Houston -SMU- 6/6
Kentucky over Georgia -- 7/7
Xavier lost to Marquette -- 7/8
Michigan state lose 8/9
These are upset dependent:
Old miss over Arkansas 0/1
Missouri over Tennessee 0/2
Texas over Kansas state 0/3
Sunday:
Creighton over Georgetown-Sun--
Loyola over IllinoisSt -Sun
WVU over T Tech
Duke over Wake-
Miami over Clemson better for bubble worse for conference4/4
Iowa state over TCU 5/5
SMU over Houston -SMU- 6/6
Kentucky over Georgia -- 7/7
Xavier lost to Marquette -- 7/8
Michigan state lose 8/9
These are upset dependent:
Old miss over Arkansas 0/1
Missouri over Tennessee 0/2
Texas over Kansas state 0/3
Sunday:
Creighton over Georgetown-Sun--
Loyola over IllinoisSt -Sun
obliterata
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Certainly was a great day with Clemson, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Georgia, and even Michigan State losing. Throw in Cal's loss on Friday and if Gtown and Michigan lose later today it'll be just about all you could hope for.
Please SU, please please please please please.....
Please SU, please please please please please.....
orangenirvana
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Hard to believe Georgetown is still an at-large threat. They're 14-12.
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I actually think we're in a much safer spot than people think. I think beating GaTech twice is probably enough. 1 ACCT win would be the icing on the cake.
Let's go with Orange79's post above.
CBS has Minnesota a 6; compared to 'Cuse and URI an 11.
Let's look at us vs. Minnesota.
Minnesota gets a big edge in RPI (23 vs. 83) and SOS (23 to 48). But we are much closer to them in KenPom (39 for them, 48 for us) and Sagrin (37 for Minneosta and 38 for Syracuse). However for BPI we have the edge (30 for us, 44 for them)
So Minnesota has a slight edge on us in the metrics. As you can clearly tell, the main outlier is RPI - all the other 3 ranking systems have us very close.
So I think we can all agree that just going off that, there is NO way Minnesota should be 5 seed lines ahead of us. That's the same difference from Minnesota to a #1 seed.
So - CBS must have Minnesota so much higher because of their resume then, since the numbers are fairly close. Well, let's look
vs. top 50 - Minnesota (5-5); Cuse (5-6)
vs. 51 to 100 - Minnesota (4-2); Cuse (2-2)
TOTALS VS. TOP 100: Minnesota (9-7) vs. Cuse (7-8)
101 + losses: Syracuse (3); Minnesota (0)
Minnesota has done a good job avoiding the bad loss this year - we haven't. Although we haven't had one since January 1st.
Wins away from home: Minnesota (5); Syracuse (2)
Minnesota challenged themselves OOC with wins vs. #33 Arkansas, #36 Texas Arlington and #49 Vanderbilt on a neutral court. They lost @FSU.
As it stands now, we have 2 top 15 wins, and Minnesota's best win is #21 Purdue - but that was on the road.
I do agree that Minnesota clearly has a better resume than us - but 5 seed lines better? Hell no. Our computer numbers are similar to their's as is our record vs. top 100 teams.
So now part 2 - CBS has us matched up with Rhode Island as an 11 - which implies they think our resumes are similar.
RPI: URI (54); Cuse (83)
SOS: URI (67); Cuse (48)
KenPom: URI (55); Cuse (48)
Sagrin: URI(56); Cuse (38)
BPI: URI(41); Cuse (30)
The only system they have the edge on us is RPI - which is clearly an outlier for us. However, their RPI falls in line with their rest of their metrics. To me looking at strictly those numbers, there should be 1 seed line separating these teams - now let's look at the rest of the resume
Top 50: URI (1-3); Cuse (5-6)
This is where URI gets their big time win - Cincy on a neutral court in November
51-100: URI (2-3); Cuse (2-2)
TOTAL VS. TOP 100: URI (3-6); Cuse (7-8)
Quick Note - URI's best win since November 25th is #96 St. Bonaventure. We have 7 better wins since then.
Bad Losses: Surprisingly we are very similar to URI here - they have losses to 101,102 and 194; we have losses to 111,112 and 205.
URI was decent OOC - beating Cincy on a neutral floor and Belmont at home. They also lost to Duke, Valpo, Houston and Providence.
URI's best road win is #105 Davidson. They have 5 total road wins. We only have 2, but one was against #60 Clemson.
I think our resume is more closely compared to Minnesota's than it is to URI's. #14 Cincinnati is a nice win, but we have #13 FSU and #15 UVA. We also have wins against 38,45,47,55 and 60 before you talk about URI's next best win, which is #64 Belmont.
URI is 0-2 vs. Dayton - they really could have used one of those. They haven't played VCU yet though.
Long story short - I believe our resume compares more closely with the 6 seed than it does the 11 that CBS has playing against in the play-in game.
Let's go with Orange79's post above.
CBS has Minnesota a 6; compared to 'Cuse and URI an 11.
Let's look at us vs. Minnesota.
Minnesota gets a big edge in RPI (23 vs. 83) and SOS (23 to 48). But we are much closer to them in KenPom (39 for them, 48 for us) and Sagrin (37 for Minneosta and 38 for Syracuse). However for BPI we have the edge (30 for us, 44 for them)
So Minnesota has a slight edge on us in the metrics. As you can clearly tell, the main outlier is RPI - all the other 3 ranking systems have us very close.
So I think we can all agree that just going off that, there is NO way Minnesota should be 5 seed lines ahead of us. That's the same difference from Minnesota to a #1 seed.
So - CBS must have Minnesota so much higher because of their resume then, since the numbers are fairly close. Well, let's look
vs. top 50 - Minnesota (5-5); Cuse (5-6)
vs. 51 to 100 - Minnesota (4-2); Cuse (2-2)
TOTALS VS. TOP 100: Minnesota (9-7) vs. Cuse (7-8)
101 + losses: Syracuse (3); Minnesota (0)
Minnesota has done a good job avoiding the bad loss this year - we haven't. Although we haven't had one since January 1st.
Wins away from home: Minnesota (5); Syracuse (2)
Minnesota challenged themselves OOC with wins vs. #33 Arkansas, #36 Texas Arlington and #49 Vanderbilt on a neutral court. They lost @FSU.
As it stands now, we have 2 top 15 wins, and Minnesota's best win is #21 Purdue - but that was on the road.
I do agree that Minnesota clearly has a better resume than us - but 5 seed lines better? Hell no. Our computer numbers are similar to their's as is our record vs. top 100 teams.
So now part 2 - CBS has us matched up with Rhode Island as an 11 - which implies they think our resumes are similar.
RPI: URI (54); Cuse (83)
SOS: URI (67); Cuse (48)
KenPom: URI (55); Cuse (48)
Sagrin: URI(56); Cuse (38)
BPI: URI(41); Cuse (30)
The only system they have the edge on us is RPI - which is clearly an outlier for us. However, their RPI falls in line with their rest of their metrics. To me looking at strictly those numbers, there should be 1 seed line separating these teams - now let's look at the rest of the resume
Top 50: URI (1-3); Cuse (5-6)
This is where URI gets their big time win - Cincy on a neutral court in November
51-100: URI (2-3); Cuse (2-2)
TOTAL VS. TOP 100: URI (3-6); Cuse (7-8)
Quick Note - URI's best win since November 25th is #96 St. Bonaventure. We have 7 better wins since then.
Bad Losses: Surprisingly we are very similar to URI here - they have losses to 101,102 and 194; we have losses to 111,112 and 205.
URI was decent OOC - beating Cincy on a neutral floor and Belmont at home. They also lost to Duke, Valpo, Houston and Providence.
URI's best road win is #105 Davidson. They have 5 total road wins. We only have 2, but one was against #60 Clemson.
I think our resume is more closely compared to Minnesota's than it is to URI's. #14 Cincinnati is a nice win, but we have #13 FSU and #15 UVA. We also have wins against 38,45,47,55 and 60 before you talk about URI's next best win, which is #64 Belmont.
URI is 0-2 vs. Dayton - they really could have used one of those. They haven't played VCU yet though.
Long story short - I believe our resume compares more closely with the 6 seed than it does the 11 that CBS has playing against in the play-in game.
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jncuse
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I think there are ways to get in with less.
That being said there will always be Committee Judgment, Committee Inconsistency, and Committee Error. If you put yourself on the bubble, you did enough bad things during the year to be subjected to those factors and IMO deserve your fate whatever it is.
Given the way the bubble has played in recent weeks, 11-7 should take all of the above 3 factors out of the equation. So to absolutely control our own destiny, I do agree its 3 out of 4. But I think it's possible we survive the bubble with less than that.
jncuse
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Question for anybody that has the data or knows the answer.
If Northwestern gets in, will Rutgers become the P5 team with the longest drought?
Cusefan0307
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We are going to go 4-2 down the stretch and be in as a 10 seed.
jncuse
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If my calculations are right (and they may be off be a few games), I have the teams that I have around us on the bubble in the last 3 sets of games at a cumulative record of 22-32 (41%) -- don't have the actual numbers but I suspect the teams outside of the bubble line at the time won less than 30% of the games. We have to win at least one of the 3 parallel games to take advantage of this total collapse by most teams below us.
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I don't know the answer but I believe the last time Rutgers got in was 1991.
jncuse
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The thing with Georgetown is they have not had a bad loss. Their worst loss was to RPI #75 Arkansas St. 7 losses are to teams who will likely be in the top 7 seeds. They are 0-2 against Providence, 0-1 against Seton Hall, and 1-1 against Marquette. So they are currently 1-4 against the Big East teams right on the bubble which isn't great (sort of the opposite of us in that regard)
But still no bad losses. Out of Conference they beat Oregon on a Neutral Court and won at Syracuse. In Conference they won at Butler and beat Creighton.
In Summary the following looks like a framework for good resume,
- No bad losses
- Quality OOC wins away from Georgetown
- 4 really nice wins
- 1-4 against teams on the bubble in their own conference
But then the 14-12. I personally think if Georgetown gets to 18 wins (including the Big East Tourney) they will get in -- even with a record of 18-15.
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If we go 4-2 we'll be much better than a 10 seed
jncuse
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I see Palm has Wichita St out. (I assume he has Illinois St because of even record and Illinois St higher RPI) They should be in regardless.
Yes, let's start with the obvious they have beaten nobody. But they are 13 in KP, 16 in Sagarin, 18 in BPI. When you don't have apples and oranges to compare teams this becomes a useful tool to look at. I see no way a team with those rankings, especially when the committee now says they consider them would be left out.
Yes, let's start with the obvious they have beaten nobody. But they are 13 in KP, 16 in Sagarin, 18 in BPI. When you don't have apples and oranges to compare teams this becomes a useful tool to look at. I see no way a team with those rankings, especially when the committee now says they consider them would be left out.
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4-2 might yield a six
jncuse
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Another comment on Palm's bracket. Rhode Island is in? Really?
Yes they beat Cincy on a neutral floor. That is nice. The other 2 top 100 wins are at Home vs Belmont (#60 RPI, #81 in KP) and at home vs St. Bonaventure (#95)
And it's not like Rhode Island did not have other chances to at least get one more quality win. H against Dayton, At Dayton, At Valpo, at Providence, At Houston, Neutral Duke. Some of those games are not easy, but you could have won at least one of those road games. Add in Cincy and they went 1-6 in their 7 toughest games. Not good enough -- especially since they have bad losses.
They lost to a sub 200 RPI team at home in Fordham -- also lost loss to Lasalle at home.
They are 55/41/56 in the 3 ranking systems. Not enough to overcome the mediocrity above.
Quite frankly, I think Palm is mailing it in this year -- I also viewed him as the top of the game. He also had Auburn and Ohio St on the last teams out line a few weeks ago which was ridiculous.
Yes they beat Cincy on a neutral floor. That is nice. The other 2 top 100 wins are at Home vs Belmont (#60 RPI, #81 in KP) and at home vs St. Bonaventure (#95)
And it's not like Rhode Island did not have other chances to at least get one more quality win. H against Dayton, At Dayton, At Valpo, at Providence, At Houston, Neutral Duke. Some of those games are not easy, but you could have won at least one of those road games. Add in Cincy and they went 1-6 in their 7 toughest games. Not good enough -- especially since they have bad losses.
They lost to a sub 200 RPI team at home in Fordham -- also lost loss to Lasalle at home.
They are 55/41/56 in the 3 ranking systems. Not enough to overcome the mediocrity above.
Quite frankly, I think Palm is mailing it in this year -- I also viewed him as the top of the game. He also had Auburn and Ohio St on the last teams out line a few weeks ago which was ridiculous.
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