Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[jncuse]

Long story short - I believe our resume compares more closely with the 6 seed than it does the 11 that CBS has playing against in the play-in game.

Good analysis, but here is the problem and it has nothing to do with you. The reason we are so much better than the other #11 seed in Rhode Island, is because they are an absolutely terrible pick to be at the 11 seed. They are a clear out right now.

 

[jdubs30]

Lunardi just said if we lose tonight - we move to the "Last 4 In" category

 

[jdubs30]

Good analysis, but here is the problem and it has nothing to do with you. The reason we are so much better than the other #11 seed in Rhode Island, is because they are an absolutely terrible pick to be at the 11 seed. They are a clear out right now.

I do agr4ee.

It was more of a post to get people to think about what other team's resumes look like - not just ours. We can't look at our resume in a vacuum and "perceive" that it's not good enough when they aren't basing that on anything else.

The main reason I used URI/Minnesota was because it was just posted

 

[jdubs30]

I see Palm has Wichita St out. (I assume he has Illinois St because of even record and Illinois St higher RPI) They should be in regardless.

Yes, let's start with the obvious they have beaten nobody. But they are 13 in KP, 16 in Sagarin, 18 in BPI. When you don't have apples and oranges to compare teams this becomes a useful tool to look at. I see no way a team with those rankings, especially when the committee now says they consider them would be left out.

Palms last few brackets have been head scratchers

 

[tbonezone]

ever felt comfortable and been left out ? i know the feeling too well. best to win a few games in the ACCT.

 

[jdubs30]

Another comment on Palm's bracket. Rhode Island is in? Really?

Yes they beat Cincy on a neutral floor. That is nice. The other 2 top 100 wins are at Home vs Belmont (#60 RPI, #81 in KP) and at home vs St. Bonaventure (#95)

And it's not like Rhode Island did not have other chances to at least get one more quality win. H against Dayton, At Dayton, At Valpo, at Providence, At Houston, Neutral Duke. Some of those games are not easy, but you could have won at least one of those road games. Add in Cincy and they went 1-6 in their 7 toughest games. Not good enough -- especially since they have bad losses.

They lost to a sub 200 RPI team at home in Fordham -- also lost loss to Lasalle at home.

They are 55/41/56 in the 3 ranking systems. Not enough to overcome the mediocrity above.

Quite frankly, I think Palm is mailing it in this year -- I also viewed him as the top of the game. He also had Auburn and Ohio St on the last teams out line a few weeks ago which was ridiculous.

Maybe he's throwing a bunch of guesses out there so when a team like Tulsa last year randomly gets in, he can claim he "called it"

 

[jdubs30]

ever felt comfortable and been left out ? i know the feeling too well. best to win a few games in the ACCT.

Anyone who's projected at a 7 seed or worse should be uncomfortable

 

[MSOrange]

Question for anybody that has the data or knows the answer.

If Northwestern gets in, will Rutgers become the P5 team with the longest drought?

I'm pretty sure. I did a brief scan of this list. There aren't a ton of Division 1 teams in general that haven't gotten a bid sometime in the 2000s, let alone P5 teams. But Rutgers goes back to 1991.

NCAA Men's Division I Tournament bids by school - Wikipedia

 

[jncuse]

I'm pretty sure. I did a brief scan of this list. There aren't a ton of Division 1 teams in general that haven't gotten a bid sometime in the 2000s, let alone P5 teams. But Rutgers goes back to 1991.

NCAA Men's Division I Tournament bids by school - Wikipedia

Thanks for the link -- you can sort by the last year in. So assuming Northwestern is the only P5 school not in (which we have heard many times) than it is in fact Rutgers.

In terms of P5 Schools we have:
Rutgers 1991
TCU 1998
Auburn 2003
Depaul 2004
South Carolina 2004

So after this year the gap could be 12 years between Rutgers and the next closest. A real coup by the Big 10.

 

[orange79]

Maybe he's throwing a bunch of guesses out there so when a team like Tulsa last year randomly gets in, he can claim he "called it"

Over the last 10+ years (back to when he ran collegerpi.com before he moved to CBS Sports), he's been the most consistently accurate of all the 'bracketologists'. I know past performance isn't indicative of future results, but he's really good.

 

[jncuse]

ever felt comfortable and been left out ? i know the feeling too well. best to win a few games in the ACCT.

You have been over exaggerating what is needed for the past 2 years.

There is a difference between caution and fear mongering.

 

[jncuse]

Over the last 10+ years (back to when he ran collegerpi.com before he moved to CBS Sports), he's been the most consistently accurate of all the 'bracketologists'. I know past performance isn't indicative of future results, but he's really good.

As I said I thought he was always the top of the game. And part of the reason I liked him was because he provided good input during the process -- many can throw the numbers in the end and that is not how I value bracketologists. But even that input seems a little less this year (or maybe I am not looking for it)

This year he has had some strange choices that just don't make sense.

The Bracket Project - Ranking the Bracketologists

In terms of historical results, the documented results don't really back up your claims. In the last 5 years, he is ranked 61st out of 88 on the matrix. But in his defence the final bracket is sometimes a crapshoot **, and to me the best bracket guys are those that share good insight throughout the year -- which he has done. But this year, don't know.

** I probably would not be much higher, and it's a little easier for random Jim. Jim can change his mind, and move teams around arbitrarily but it is harder for someone that has to lock in his opinion on a major site. Most year I put together a bracket here on the last day and check what I did vs the matrix. I think 3 years ago, I would have been top 4 or 5. But I think the year after I went bottom 10.

Not to pick on a fellow Syracuse Fan, as SyracuseFan7 has had great results at the end. Can't deny that and if he posts here he should take kudos for it. But if you look at his website he has posted 2 brackets all year, and last one was 9 days ago. So he is very good at predicting, but he is not somewhere you go for information.

 

[bpo57]

Thanks for the link -- you can sort by the last year in. So assuming Northwestern is the only P5 school not in (which we have heard many times) than it is in fact Rutgers.

In terms of P5 Schools we have:
Rutgers 1991
TCU 1998
Auburn 2003
Depaul 2004
South Carolina 2004

So after this year the gap could be 12 years between Rutgers and the next closest. A real coup by the Big 10.

Seems Auburn never recovered from that regional semi-final loss to SU in Albany.

 

[djorange1989]

Thanks for the link -- you can sort by the last year in. So assuming Northwestern is the only P5 school not in (which we have heard many times) than it is in fact Rutgers.

In terms of P5 Schools we have:
Rutgers 1991
TCU 1998
Auburn 2003
Depaul 2004
South Carolina 2004

So after this year the gap could be 12 years between Rutgers and the next closest. A real coup by the Big 10.

Rutgers needs some good social media PR to help turn things around. Maybe slo motion action shots of Mike Rice throwing basketballs at his players to really highlight their great history?

 

[tbonezone]

you take care of business you can walk comfortably on the road and not tiptoe atop the guardrails .

 

[MSOrange]

Rutgers needs some good social media PR to help turn things around. Maybe slo motion action shots of Mike Rice throwing basketballs at his players to really highlight their great history?

I don't think many programs have gotten publicity on SNL so I'll give them that.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Rutgers needs some good social media PR to help turn things around. Maybe slo motion action shots of Mike Rice throwing basketballs at his players to really highlight their great history?

Rutgers needs to double pay Jim Boeheim once he retired from Syracuse. Probably sign a two or three years deal then Rutgers has a good chance to turn it around.

 

[MSOrange]

Eron Harris officially out for the year. Blow to the Spartans

 

[pearl31]

Another comment on Palm's bracket. Rhode Island is in? Really?

Yes they beat Cincy on a neutral floor. That is nice. The other 2 top 100 wins are at Home vs Belmont (#60 RPI, #81 in KP) and at home vs St. Bonaventure (#95)

And it's not like Rhode Island did not have other chances to at least get one more quality win. H against Dayton, At Dayton, At Valpo, at Providence, At Houston, Neutral Duke. Some of those games are not easy, but you could have won at least one of those road games. Add in Cincy and they went 1-6 in their 7 toughest games. Not good enough -- especially since they have bad losses.

They lost to a sub 200 RPI team at home in Fordham -- also lost loss to Lasalle at home.

They are 55/41/56 in the 3 ranking systems. Not enough to overcome the mediocrity above.

Quite frankly, I think Palm is mailing it in this year -- I also viewed him as the top of the game. He also had Auburn and Ohio St on the last teams out line a few weeks ago which was ridiculous.

yep was thinking the exact thing re RI - no way they're in right now - think they'll have to do damage in the a10 tourney to have a chance...
and yeah, Palm has been ??? at best so far this year

 

[jncuse]

Illinois St should be banned from the tournament for the uniforms they are wearing today. (On ESPN U)

 

[JoeySimz]

Eron Harris officially out for the year. Blow to the Spartans

Wow. Tough year for them. (I imagine their fans are up in arms about their coach too lol) They have a similar record.

 

[JoeySimz]

Illinois St should be banned from the tournament for the uniforms they are wearing today. (On ESPN U)

Haha. Their court is "fun" too. Lots of threes back and forth.

 

[iommi]

Illinois St should be banned from the tournament for the uniforms they are wearing today. (On ESPN U)

Yeah, The Washington Generals look like Minnesota today.

 

[Briancuse]

Pitt is back in the discussion...

They are 4-10 in the conference, they shouldn't be.

 

[orangenirvana]

They are 4-10 in the conference, they shouldn't be.

Conference record isn't a criteria.