Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[Briancuse]

Conference record isn't a criteria.

Sure it is.

 

[orangenirvana]

Sure it is.

Oh. You might want to let the committee know then.

 

[jncuse]

To finish off the weekend

I think a win by Georgetown would have put them in as of now -- at least in my bracket.

A shaky performance by a team with horrid uniforms. But they will take the win.

So the 18 teams I tracked this weekend went a combined 6-11, which weakened the bubble a little more.

 

[pearl31]

still hanging on by a thread, as of today

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse

How disappointing. Of the teams I have tracked around the bubble the last few weeks, I think the total record has been 24-33, and it has been much worse for teams below the line. Just one win the last 3 games would have been enough to keep us in fairly good shape.

We need at least 2 wins out of the next 3 games. It's certainly possible -- less than 50%, but not crazy odds either. But we still have hope and forI will continue to track our position on the bubble until I know we are done. And we are very far from done at this point.

 

[jncuse]

I will create a matrix update tomorrow for the games from Monday-Thursday. The games of interest tomorrow will have Miami-Virginia and Iowa St - Texas Tech.

 

[jncuse]

UConn is on a nice little run. No they are not on the bubble. They would have to win out which includes beating SMU, Cincy and Houston, to even be considered. But their RPI is up to 102. So the UConn game may not be considered a bad loss after all... although it was another game that we will look as a blown opportunity if we are a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT.

 

[orangenirvana]

Updated rankings:

Sagarin - 41
KenPom - 48
BPI - 31
RPI - 86

 

[Nicknack]

I like our chances against Dook at home, I really do. They're on a nice run, but not dominating. There will be a heck of a lot riding on the game + just wanting to beat Dook. Everyone will be fired up for this game. Just figure out a way to beat Dook and then repay GTECH and we should be back in good standing.

 

[sugrad68]

In all likelihood, unless a minor miracle occurs, we go into the last game of the regular season on a 5 game losing streak. We will be heavy underdogs against both Duke and Louisville. What are our chances, assuming we beat GT, or getting into the tournament with an 18-15 record (assuming 1-1 in the ACC tournament) and no out of conference major wins?

 

[Ryand877]

In all likelihood, unless a minor miracle occurs, we go into the last game of the regular season on a 5 game losing streak. We will be heavy underdogs against both Duke and Louisville. What are our chances, assuming we beat GT, or getting into the tournament with an 18-15 record (assuming 1-1 in the ACC tournament) and no out of conference major wins?

None. Under the above scenario, need at least 2 in ACC Tournament. That is why last night was so huge.

 

[jdubs30]

In all likelihood, unless a minor miracle occurs, we go into the last game of the regular season on a 5 game losing streak. We will be heavy underdogs against both Duke and Louisville. What are our chances, assuming we beat GT, or getting into the tournament with an 18-15 record (assuming 1-1 in the ACC tournament) and no out of conference major wins?

I think beating GaTech and going 1-1 in the ACCT - assuming that 1 win is someone like Miami or Wake - would be enough to keep us on the upper side of the discussion. It's really hard to say though because it greatly is based on what other teams do. What if we finish 18-15; but what if Michigan, Cal and Seton Hall lose out? What if VaTech loses out without Clarke? There is really so much more to this than what we do.

Monmouth will finish the season in the top 50 of RPI - it's not a sexy win - but it's a nice one to have on the resume.

We have to go into Selection Sunday with at LEAST 18 wins. If we're at 17 we don't have a shot. 18 we're in the conversation. Anything over 18 I think we're in.

If we defend the dome the rest of the year and finish 2-1; we will be in.

 

[Nicknack]

Yes, last night's game was disappointing. No question about that. However, after we beat Dook, things will be better again. ;-)

 

[orangenirvana]

In all likelihood, unless a minor miracle occurs, we go into the last game of the regular season on a 5 game losing streak. We will be heavy underdogs against both Duke and Louisville. What are our chances, assuming we beat GT, or getting into the tournament with an 18-15 record (assuming 1-1 in the ACC tournament) and no out of conference major wins?

This team has shot the ball horribly the last two games and still had great chances to win. I'm optimistic that they'll find their shooting strokes and win 3-4 more games.

 

[sugrad68]

This team has shot the ball horribly the last two games and still had great chances to win. I'm optimistic that they'll find their shooting strokes and win 3-4 more games.

I certainly hope so. Terrible time of the year for the 3-point shooting to fall apart.

 

[jncuse]

You can only go so long without losing hurting your bracket position. Based on 42 brackets from today.

Today we are on 16 of 42 brackets (38%. Per the matrix we are the last team out. We have been replaced by Georgia Tech who moves into the last spot in with 23 of 42 brackets (55%)

In terms of the bubble, my quick count is as follows for the 42 brackets.

Standings at Monday. February 20

Kansas St 41
Michigan St 41
Cal 39
Seton Hall 36
Marquette 35
Illinois St 27
TCU 26
Georgia Tech 23
----IN / OUT LINE----------
Syracuse 16
Clemson 14
Tennessee 13
Wake Forest 7
Rhode Island 5
Providence 3
Vanderbilt 3
Houston 2
Alabama 2
Texas Tech 2
Pitt 2

Syracuse, Clemson move out this weekend.
Marquette, Georgia Tech move back in

 

[jdubs30]

You can only go so long without losing hurting your bracket position. Based on 42 brackets from today.

Today we are on 16 of 42 brackets (38%. Per the matrix we are the last team out. We have been replaced by Georgia Tech who moves into the last spot in with 23 of 42 brackets (55%)

In terms of the bubble, my quick count is as follows for the 42 brackets.

Standings at Monday. February 20

Kansas St 41
Michigan St 41
Cal 39
Seton Hall 36
Marquette 35
Illinois St 27
TCU 26
Georgia Tech 23
----IN / OUT LINE----------
Syracuse 16
Clemson 14
Tennessee 13
Wake Forest 7
Rhode Island 5
Providence 3
Vanderbilt 3
Houston 2
Alabama 2
Texas Tech 2
Pitt 2

Syracuse, Clemson move out this weekend.
Marquette, Georgia Tech move back in

First glance:
- MSU is in trouble with the Harris injury - if they struggle down the stretch they're out
- I don't think Illinois State will get an at-large
- I don't see both Hall and Marquette getting in


We're still in a decent spot

 

[iommi]

First glance:
- MSU is in trouble with the Harris injury - if they struggle down the stretch they're out
- I don't think Illinois State will get an at-large
- I don't see both Hall and Marquette getting in


We're still in a decent spot

If we lose to Duke, we are in a horrendous spot. We are not going to win in Yum. We could beat Georgia Tech but would then need 2 in the ACC Tourney, where we have never won one game. We will be dogs against Duke obviously.

 

[jdubs30]

Cal:

4-8 vs. the top 100 (1-6 vs. the top 50)
Best OOC win: #52 Princeton
3 road wins


Please

 

[jdubs30]

If we lose to Duke, we are in a horrendous spot. We are not going to win in Yum. We could beat Georgia Tech but would then need 2 in the ACC Tourney, where we have never won one game. We will be dogs against Duke obviously.

Yeah if we lose to Duke we'd need to beat GaTech 100%. Then 2 wins in the ACCT would be a lock. Beating GaTech and going 1-1 in the ACCT will keep us on life support

 

[djorange1989]

First glance:
- MSU is in trouble with the Harris injury - if they struggle down the stretch they're out
- I don't think Illinois State will get an at-large
- I don't see both Hall and Marquette getting in


We're still in a decent spot

And we get a chance to knock Tech off head to head. Still need to beat Duke too.

 

[pearl31]

hey guys/gals! we heart Lunardi again! he's still got us as one of last 4 byes in his updated bracket today!

 

[NineOneSeven]

We just needed to either beat one of Pitt or GaTech (not to mention, we had a chance for a gamewinner against UL), and we would have given ourselves such a better shot.

So frustrating.

 

[jdubs30]

We just needed to either beat one of Pitt or GaTech (not to mention, we had a chance for a gamewinner against UL), and we would have given ourselves such a better shot.

So frustrating.

On the flip side - without the miracle shot from Gillon or Battle we'd be in an even worse spot. Sometimes you make the plays, sometimes you don't

 

[jncuse]

hey guys/gals! we heart Lunardi again! he's still got us as one of last 4 byes in his updated bracket today!

View attachment 89941

It's amazing when you look at a bubble with 15 of the 16 teams in the P5+BE conferences. I have never seen anything as unbalanced as this. (Matrix or Lunardi).