can dungey make the leap next year (crazy talk bear with me) | Page 5 | Syracusefan.com

can dungey make the leap next year (crazy talk bear with me)

Millhouse said:
so much of the game now is the QBs mind making all the checks and reads

the world is your oyster in this offense

i might be nuts but i don't think mayfield is that gifted, he's just really smart when it comes to playing (really stupid in non-playing ways)

wolford is nothing special talent wise and it showed his first three years. now look at him - 1,000 more yards, way more efficient.

if dungey has the senior year light bulb moment along with his other talents, what does this offense do if he has a 150 qb rating? is a 15% improvement in yards per play reasonable? I think so

if so, at this years number of plays, that equal 524 yards per game

that's 6th in the country.

What if the defense gets only 5% better per play? that's only 94th in the country. It's not unreasonable to expect that. at the same number of plays, that gets you giving up 420 yards per game

If you average 104 more yards than your opponents, you're going to be really good

Now the defense might face more plays by not giving up so many long TDs... raining on the parade

But still, this shows what is possible when you crank up the pace and get extra plays by not punting as much

it wouldn't surprise me if babers does this sort of math when he projects out when his teams make the leap. crank up the number of plays takes some time to get there but he eventually thinks his offense will be better than theirs and you amplify it with way more plays from pace and non-punts
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Gratuitous bump but the numbers are close. We are at 523 ypg with dungey at 164 rating

Defense is way better so far but that will come back to Earth
 
Millhouse said:
Gratuitous bump but the numbers are close. We are at 523 ypg with dungey at 164 rating

Defense is way better so far but that will come back to Earth
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I have to admit I was surprised his rating is so high because I haven’t felt great about passing game so far this year.

Then I looked up stats for WMU and FSU and found a 14/32 259 yards total. Completion percentage of 44%.

I know he can throw but I am convinced his arm isn’t right. He is making up for it with his legs but how sustainable is that?

How much of running is captured in the rating?
 
SUskibum said:
I have to admit I was surprised his rating is so high because I haven’t felt great about passing game so far this year.

Then I looked up stats for WMU and FSU and found a 14/32 259 yards total. Completion percentage of 44%.

I know he can throw but I am convinced his arm isn’t right. He is making up for it with his legs but how sustainable is that?

How much of running is captured in the rating?
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running isn't part of it. completion percentage keeps it from being really high. td to int, ypa are good. completion % is average because of the other two games
 
SUskibum said:
I have to admit I was surprised his rating is so high because I haven’t felt great about passing game so far this year.

Then I looked up stats for WMU and FSU and found a 14/32 259 yards total. Completion percentage of 44%.

I know he can throw but I am convinced his arm isn’t right. He is making up for it with his legs but how sustainable is that?

How much of running is captured in the rating?
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WMU we had a ton of drops but yeah he didn't have a great game
FSU you could tell his arm wasn't right
In the Wagner and UCONN game he was a combined 44/59 so 75% compilation rate, so he can complete passes at a good clip
Will be interesting to see which Dungey shows up this week
 
Millhouse said:
Gratuitous bump but the numbers are close. We are at 523 ypg with dungey at 164 rating

Defense is way better so far but that will come back to Earth
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The overall offensive improvement comes down to running the ball more and running it better. For the pass offense attempts are down but TD/Int ratio is way up.

1537885325408.png


In my opinion we haven't seen this offense really go yet. I think there's a gear or two left.
 
GoSU96 said:
The overall offensive improvement comes down to running the ball more and running it better. For the pass offense attempts are down but TD/Int ratio is way up.

View attachment 140054

In my opinion we haven't seen this offense really go yet. I think there's a gear or two left.
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the passing efficiency is much better. could be a result of better running, better situations but i think it's also improved on its own. so many easy pitches and catches
 
I saw Don McPherson passing a light bulb to DunG after a practice back in August. Question is if it went on.
Starting to get a slight 87 feel.
 
Millhouse said:
the passing efficiency is much better. could be a result of better running, better situations but i think it's also improved on its own. so many easy pitches and catches
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His efficiency should be up, but that's not what's driving the increase in total offense.
 
its interesting because the running game has just been ok.. but far more fall forward for 1-3 and less zero plays.. also seems like we really arent going for it on 4th because we havent had to and also been ahead so really slowed it down most of every 2nd half except WMU
 
upperdeck said:
its interesting because the running game has just been ok.. but far more fall forward for 1-3 and less zero plays.. also seems like we really arent going for it on 4th because we havent had to and also been ahead so really slowed it down most of every 2nd half except WMU
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It's funny -- for years, OT has been a challenge for our offensive line play. And when we've had good players there, there's been virtually no depth.

This year, the OT are the strength of the line, with the interior being not quite where they need to be. Can't help but wonder if Sampson would have helped in that regard.

Babers and staff have done an impressive job of retooling the OL and stocking the pipeline with quality system fits in a short amount of time. Once the interior OL catches up to the improved play at OT, we'll see the running game go to the next level.

Of course, next year we'll have to replace Martin / Conway...
 
GoSU96 said:
His efficiency should be up, but that's not what's driving the increase in total offense.
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i think it's all related. you can't improve your passing efficiency that much without it greatly benefiting the total offense
 
upperdeck said:
its interesting because the running game has just been ok.. but far more fall forward for 1-3 and less zero plays.. also seems like we really arent going for it on 4th because we havent had to and also been ahead so really slowed it down most of every 2nd half except WMU
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we're 84th in punts per game which is good

0.8 punts less per game without having a bunch of 4th down go-for-its

might punt more if we get big leads which is fine
 
honestly when i watch the game replays the OT play is mostly what is killing the passing game. I also dont think the center play has been solid.. but when you get B level play more than D level it all seems better without really playing great
 
GoSU96 said:
The overall offensive improvement comes down to running the ball more and running it better. For the pass offense attempts are down but TD/Int ratio is way up.

View attachment 140054

In my opinion we haven't seen this offense really go yet. I think there's a gear or two left.
Expand...

I don't think we see the extra gear until next year. If the dropoff at OT isn't too severe, then look out. Every other spot is loaded and ready to go. Some with upgrades.
 
upperdeck said:
its interesting because the running game has just been ok.. but far more fall forward for 1-3 and less zero plays.. also seems like we really arent going for it on 4th because we havent had to and also been ahead so really slowed it down most of every 2nd half except WMU
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#32 in per run att
#9 in yards per game
#13 in rushing TD

We are pretty good at running the ball. The question is level of competition
 
Chip said:
I don't think we see the extra gear until next year. If the dropoff at OT isn't too severe, then look out. Every other spot is loaded and ready to go. Some with upgrades.
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I think the extra gear is closer to 50/50 play ratio and Dungey completing between 65% - 70% for 4 quarters.
 
Millhouse said:
fwiw, dungey was 32nd in the espn qbr that i don't really understand , 47th last year, and 55th the year before

nassib as 38th his senior year, 72nd his junior year, 95th his soph year

hopefully dungey keeps getting better.

a small increase in his passing efficiency will make this offense explode
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WRs who can catch will help a great deal.
 
OrangePA said:
WRs who can catch will help a great deal.
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for sure - so far, they've recovered from drops and kept getting first downs.

funny how chucking it downfield was our only offense at first and now we're dropping those

custis will have a 250 yard day sometime this year
 
Millhouse said:
for sure - so far, they've recovered from drops and kept getting first downs.

funny how chucking it downfield was our only offense at first and now we're dropping those

custis will have a 250 yard day sometime this year
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Saturday would be nice
 
upperdeck said:
its interesting because the running game has just been ok.. but far more fall forward for 1-3 and less zero plays.. also seems like we really arent going for it on 4th because we havent had to and also been ahead so really slowed it down most of every 2nd half except WMU
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goes to show how bad the running game was before - improves 20% without really impressing

we still need more from neal and whoever gets carries after neal

it's amazing how well the offense is doing with so little from butler - we all thought he was key in this thread months ago
 
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