So four games. 2-2 record. A pretty interesting mix of teams played (FCS newby, the best program in the country, a potential big 5 on the rise and a MAC team that is a fairly dangerous mid-major). What have we learned? What are we watching for? Think 3 or 4 weeks in is always a good chance to draw somewhat fair conclusions and it should give us an idea of the big storylines going forward. So let's take a look (oh, and if you're someone who doesn't think dino should ever get critiqued for anything, I apologize in advance).
What we know
This offense is a work in progress
I think we're all a little disappointed to be sitting here at 2-2 having been outscored 137-102. Beating Clemson was always a bit pie in the sky and I think we all (or at least I) underestimated Maryland's potential (still not sure if they'll be great but clearly they have some talent and could have a solid or maybe even better season).
But offensively it's really been a struggle until we broke out a bit last week. Young, dinged up OL has struggled, Tommy has had nice moments and some brutal moments (IMO), and the receivers haven't been the playmakers we thought they would be (though Trishton is making some plays).
What's encouraging, at least, after last week is that we still have the potential to be solid here and ideally we can continue to improve. We have Holy Cross then a bye so there's a little time here to work on ironing things out. We also don't face Clemson again. That should help. Would love to see the tempo speed up and execution to get more consistent.
The defense doesn't tackle well
Whether or not we ever have a dominant defense given how we want to play offense, is debateable but in this world of spread offenses, if giving up first downs and yards is inevitable, you at least want to be able make teams execute in the red zone to score TDs, make tackles to prevent huge plays and chunk yardage as much as possible, and create turnovers.
The turnovers are still a part of what we've been doing (luck or otherwise) but we give up a ton of big plays. The angles we take to tackle are occasionally painful to watch. The yards per play surrendered are bad enough -- 7.8 ypp to MD, 8 to clemson and 7 to WMU -- but when you factor in that Maryland effectively shut it down after taking a huge lead on their first drive of the third quarter and WMU lost a huge key to their offense in Eskridge in the first quarter and lost Bellamy later in the game -- and those numbers are even worse.
Whatever the numbers are or aren't overall for this defense, we need to improve on tackling, rallying to the ball and at least making teams work for points and 10+yard plays. That doesn't seem like that high a bar to set.
Hoftrichter is outstanding
It always sucks to be bragging about your punter but that kid has been nails this year. Really nice weapon to have back there and he and Szmyt are such a luxury.
Neal has improved so much in four years
As up-and-down as the offense has been so far, it's cool to see the vision and patience Moe Neal is running with right now. His big run to get us a first down late in the WMU game where he made most of the WMU defense whiff with a ridiculous cutback was a thing of beauty. Had a nice subtle cut (that he wouldn't have made as a frosh or soph) to break free for the TD that put Liberty away late. He's also made a bunch of nice plays in the passing game. Fumble kind of sucked against WMU but he's developed into a much better player than I anticipated early in his career.
We've been outschemed a bunch this year
Maybe next year we should hold preseason camp in an undisclosed location in the Adirondacks because while we locked everyone out of camp again, we had nothing that surprised liberty, got beat to the punch on both sides of the ball all day at maryland, had absolutely zero clue how to handle Clemson's blitzing scheme and at best played to a draw with WMU with our offense creating problems for them while their offense ripped off huge chunks of yardage against us. Before people start hyperventilating, I like Dino and co. and I'm not begging for Ward to be fired or Lynch let go. I liked the wrinkle of the shovel pass and DeVito designed runs against WMU as well as the fact that we attacked the middle of the field more in the passing game. I also think a huge part of football is simple -- have a system, execute it well and try to get good talent to develop with a strong S&C program. Easier said than done but it doesn't require a PhD. So I'm not sure individual game plans are as important as our overall execution, just pointing out that, for whatever it's worth, we haven't really been on the plus side of that ledger much this season.
What we don't know ... at least not yet
How good is Tommy?
Tommy was mostly brutal against Liberty, OK but nowhere near as good as the stats would suggest against UMD, pretty solid against Clemson all things considered and really good against WMU. So the trend line is a good one. What we definitely know is that when a play goes off without a hitch as it's drawn up in the playbook, it's easy to see why people like Tommy as much as they do. Strong arm, good accuracy not bad overall athleticism. The improvising and moving within the pocket has improved already in four games, so that's a good sign too. I was also impressed with how he battled against Clemson right to the last throw where he got crushed (that's two games in a row where he's been left in to take a big hit for no real good reason, by the way).
What we don't know is how good Tommy can be. Can he be a guy that leads this team and this offense to a good season this year? Can he show that intangible quality that intangible quality that takes a good offense and makes it a great one? Can he sync up with his receivers so we don't throw bad picks to waiting defenders (who luckily don't always catch the ball)? Can he bail out a weak offensive line with good decisions? Will be interesting to watch.
Where are all those guys we were excited about in the offseason?
Trill, Cisco, Courtney Jackson, Nykiem Johnson, Abdul Adams, Taj Harris, Sean Riley ... Really quiet start for most of these guys. Obviously Trill had a huge play against Liberty and Cisco had a couple picks before missing the WMU game. But overall I would say we're still waiting on all of those guys to become true difference-makers for this team. Cisco is still a bullet making a play on a ball but has to get better down-to-down making plays. Trill is a phenomenal athlete but is inconsistent. Nykiem has looked really bad so far, Courtney Jackson isn't playing, Adams had a bad fumble and, while he's had some moments, hasn't emerged as a stud RB, Taj is OK but it's been somewhat underwhelming so far and Riley averaging 7 yards a catch on 4 catches a game. Need more from these guys.
How good are the teams we've played?
This is an interesting question b/c Liberty actually has two wins and while we know they're not going to be great, is there a chance they're a frisky 4-win team? Maryland had the trap game loss at Temple (which isn't as bad a loss as it looks like on the ticker), but could very well beat PSU this week and may yet prove to be a pretty good team. Clemson is obviously ridiculous, but WMU is 2-2 with two blowouts against weak competition and two not terribly pretty losses against good competition. So have we played tough teams and made it out with a 2-2 record or do liberty and wmu stink while Maryland is only a middle of the road P5 type team? The answer to that question could make a big difference in how we view the start of this season several weeks from now.
Can our offensive line grow into something more than what it is right now?
As bad as the OL has looked at times, they kept tommy upright for good portions of UMD and WMU and we obviously ran the ball well last week. Clemson abused us, but they'll do that to a lot of people. If we can get healthy and some of the younger kids come along, that would be a really encouraging sign for many reasons.
Can we improve our tempo offensively?
There are a lot of factors in this b/c, among other things, the OL needs to be solid, we need to avoid self-destructive plays -- penalties, turnovers, poorly executed plays -- and in good shape and we need tommy to make some big plays to keep drives alive.
At the end of the day if you were grading out where we are, it would be a bit bleak. But how this team grows the next couple weeks and how they start ACC play could go a long way toward making us all feel better about this season.
What we know
This offense is a work in progress
I think we're all a little disappointed to be sitting here at 2-2 having been outscored 137-102. Beating Clemson was always a bit pie in the sky and I think we all (or at least I) underestimated Maryland's potential (still not sure if they'll be great but clearly they have some talent and could have a solid or maybe even better season).
But offensively it's really been a struggle until we broke out a bit last week. Young, dinged up OL has struggled, Tommy has had nice moments and some brutal moments (IMO), and the receivers haven't been the playmakers we thought they would be (though Trishton is making some plays).
What's encouraging, at least, after last week is that we still have the potential to be solid here and ideally we can continue to improve. We have Holy Cross then a bye so there's a little time here to work on ironing things out. We also don't face Clemson again. That should help. Would love to see the tempo speed up and execution to get more consistent.
The defense doesn't tackle well
Whether or not we ever have a dominant defense given how we want to play offense, is debateable but in this world of spread offenses, if giving up first downs and yards is inevitable, you at least want to be able make teams execute in the red zone to score TDs, make tackles to prevent huge plays and chunk yardage as much as possible, and create turnovers.
The turnovers are still a part of what we've been doing (luck or otherwise) but we give up a ton of big plays. The angles we take to tackle are occasionally painful to watch. The yards per play surrendered are bad enough -- 7.8 ypp to MD, 8 to clemson and 7 to WMU -- but when you factor in that Maryland effectively shut it down after taking a huge lead on their first drive of the third quarter and WMU lost a huge key to their offense in Eskridge in the first quarter and lost Bellamy later in the game -- and those numbers are even worse.
Whatever the numbers are or aren't overall for this defense, we need to improve on tackling, rallying to the ball and at least making teams work for points and 10+yard plays. That doesn't seem like that high a bar to set.
Hoftrichter is outstanding
It always sucks to be bragging about your punter but that kid has been nails this year. Really nice weapon to have back there and he and Szmyt are such a luxury.
Neal has improved so much in four years
As up-and-down as the offense has been so far, it's cool to see the vision and patience Moe Neal is running with right now. His big run to get us a first down late in the WMU game where he made most of the WMU defense whiff with a ridiculous cutback was a thing of beauty. Had a nice subtle cut (that he wouldn't have made as a frosh or soph) to break free for the TD that put Liberty away late. He's also made a bunch of nice plays in the passing game. Fumble kind of sucked against WMU but he's developed into a much better player than I anticipated early in his career.
We've been outschemed a bunch this year
Maybe next year we should hold preseason camp in an undisclosed location in the Adirondacks because while we locked everyone out of camp again, we had nothing that surprised liberty, got beat to the punch on both sides of the ball all day at maryland, had absolutely zero clue how to handle Clemson's blitzing scheme and at best played to a draw with WMU with our offense creating problems for them while their offense ripped off huge chunks of yardage against us. Before people start hyperventilating, I like Dino and co. and I'm not begging for Ward to be fired or Lynch let go. I liked the wrinkle of the shovel pass and DeVito designed runs against WMU as well as the fact that we attacked the middle of the field more in the passing game. I also think a huge part of football is simple -- have a system, execute it well and try to get good talent to develop with a strong S&C program. Easier said than done but it doesn't require a PhD. So I'm not sure individual game plans are as important as our overall execution, just pointing out that, for whatever it's worth, we haven't really been on the plus side of that ledger much this season.
What we don't know ... at least not yet
How good is Tommy?
Tommy was mostly brutal against Liberty, OK but nowhere near as good as the stats would suggest against UMD, pretty solid against Clemson all things considered and really good against WMU. So the trend line is a good one. What we definitely know is that when a play goes off without a hitch as it's drawn up in the playbook, it's easy to see why people like Tommy as much as they do. Strong arm, good accuracy not bad overall athleticism. The improvising and moving within the pocket has improved already in four games, so that's a good sign too. I was also impressed with how he battled against Clemson right to the last throw where he got crushed (that's two games in a row where he's been left in to take a big hit for no real good reason, by the way).
What we don't know is how good Tommy can be. Can he be a guy that leads this team and this offense to a good season this year? Can he show that intangible quality that intangible quality that takes a good offense and makes it a great one? Can he sync up with his receivers so we don't throw bad picks to waiting defenders (who luckily don't always catch the ball)? Can he bail out a weak offensive line with good decisions? Will be interesting to watch.
Where are all those guys we were excited about in the offseason?
Trill, Cisco, Courtney Jackson, Nykiem Johnson, Abdul Adams, Taj Harris, Sean Riley ... Really quiet start for most of these guys. Obviously Trill had a huge play against Liberty and Cisco had a couple picks before missing the WMU game. But overall I would say we're still waiting on all of those guys to become true difference-makers for this team. Cisco is still a bullet making a play on a ball but has to get better down-to-down making plays. Trill is a phenomenal athlete but is inconsistent. Nykiem has looked really bad so far, Courtney Jackson isn't playing, Adams had a bad fumble and, while he's had some moments, hasn't emerged as a stud RB, Taj is OK but it's been somewhat underwhelming so far and Riley averaging 7 yards a catch on 4 catches a game. Need more from these guys.
How good are the teams we've played?
This is an interesting question b/c Liberty actually has two wins and while we know they're not going to be great, is there a chance they're a frisky 4-win team? Maryland had the trap game loss at Temple (which isn't as bad a loss as it looks like on the ticker), but could very well beat PSU this week and may yet prove to be a pretty good team. Clemson is obviously ridiculous, but WMU is 2-2 with two blowouts against weak competition and two not terribly pretty losses against good competition. So have we played tough teams and made it out with a 2-2 record or do liberty and wmu stink while Maryland is only a middle of the road P5 type team? The answer to that question could make a big difference in how we view the start of this season several weeks from now.
Can our offensive line grow into something more than what it is right now?
As bad as the OL has looked at times, they kept tommy upright for good portions of UMD and WMU and we obviously ran the ball well last week. Clemson abused us, but they'll do that to a lot of people. If we can get healthy and some of the younger kids come along, that would be a really encouraging sign for many reasons.
Can we improve our tempo offensively?
There are a lot of factors in this b/c, among other things, the OL needs to be solid, we need to avoid self-destructive plays -- penalties, turnovers, poorly executed plays -- and in good shape and we need tommy to make some big plays to keep drives alive.
At the end of the day if you were grading out where we are, it would be a bit bleak. But how this team grows the next couple weeks and how they start ACC play could go a long way toward making us all feel better about this season.
