Expectations

[JeremyCuse]

Didn’t know where to put this:

I think due to the youth of some of the guys it might be 2/3rds good and 1/3rds bad this year but next year watch out that secondary should be top 3 in the ACC. Ton of talent there and if guys stay healthy they could really break out.

 

[GoCuse08]

Didn’t know where to put this:

Love info like this.

 

[KevMonstah]

What I'd like ...

a defense that keeps SU in games, not letting them get out of hand, as they have done.
an offense that is consistent, and this flat out means dungey has to finish the season.
and a bowl game. this schedule looks to have an easy path to five wins:

@wmu, wagner, uconn, unc, @wake. they have to win these.
@bc, "home" vs und, Clemson. these look like losses.

that leaves fsu, ncsu, and lville at home, and away vs pitt where they need to come
up with one win. for the last several years, it's been a small set of 4ish games that
determine the season, and for almost all of them, SU loses them all. it is time for
them to start winning some of these either-way games. if they'd stop giving up a
kabillion yards of offense, they'd win. i'm all for a go-fast offense, but sometimes
they run it to the detriment of the defense, and it shows with 600+ yards and 45+
pts given up. somewhere, they have to learn to balance in some clock usage.

it comes down to asking for, win the games that you're better than the other team.
and please win ONE of the ones that might be a 50-50 or 60-40 game. just one.

kevin

 

[bigmike]

What I'd like ...

a defense that keeps SU in games, not letting them get out of hand, as they have done.
an offense that is consistent, and this flat out means dungey has to finish the season.
and a bowl game. this schedule looks to have an easy path to five wins:

@wmu, wagner, uconn, unc, @wake. they have to win these.
@bc, "home" vs und, Clemson. these look like losses.

that leaves fsu, ncsu, and lville at home, and away vs pitt where they need to come
up with one win. for the last several years, it's been a small set of 4ish games that
determine the season, and for almost all of them, SU loses them all. it is time for
them to start winning some of these either-way games. if they'd stop giving up a
kabillion yards of offense, they'd win. i'm all for a go-fast offense, but sometimes
they run it to the detriment of the defense, and it shows with 600+ yards and 45+
pts given up. somewhere, they have to learn to balance in some clock usage.

it comes down to asking for, win the games that you're better than the other team.
and please win ONE of the ones that might be a 50-50 or 60-40 game. just one.

kevin

I only ask that one of those wins is against Louisville.

I hate the way they acted in last years game.

 

[Eric15]

Didn’t know where to put this:

Last three years we've been an atrocious 109th, 121st and 115th in passing defense. If we can get to a respectable say Top 75 that should hopefully be enough for us to crank out a few extra wins.

 

[GoSU96]

Fix the defense.

Here is where Babers is vs four other major rebuilds. Data shows he started further ahead than the other four, strength of schedule notwithstanding.

The whole woe is me it's such a hard schedule hasn't prevented the offense from being substantially better.

Get the defense in the 70s with no net improvement in the offense and this is a six, seven , eight win team.

 

[CanadianSU]

8-4 - great year.
7-5 - good year.
6-6 - acceptable
5-7 - getting a little worried
4-8 - hot seat Dino.

accurate.

 

[Chip]

Fix the defense.

Here is where Babers is vs four other major rebuilds. Data shows he started further ahead than the other four, strength of schedule notwithstanding.

The whole woe is me it's such a hard schedule hasn't prevented the offense from being substantially better.

Get the defense in the 70s with no net improvement in the offense and this is a six, seven , eight win team.

View attachment 137266

Just get the defense to play like the first 9 games last year, offense keeps improving (and has a backup plan to a Dungey injury) and we're fine.

I don't think there's been too much woe is me about the schedule. But maybe there has. Won't be this year and certainly won't be next year.

 

[TheCusian]

Just get the defense to play like the first 9 games last year, offense keeps improving (and has a backup plan to a Dungey injury) and we're fine.

I don't think there's been too much woe is me about the schedule. But maybe there has. Won't be this year and certainly won't be next year.

It’s not woe is me - it’s you can’t compare year two of Marrone (100+ SoS) with year two of Babers (#8).

People (not you Chip) like to compare like it’s apples to apples. SoS is context. And it’s really, really important context.

If the Knicks go undefeated and the Warriors lose 10 games - but then it’s later revealed that the Knicks played only vs Chinese league while the Warriors played a full NBA slate it would be important context.

But in CFB, where schedules can vary by a ton it’s even more important. Conferences and divisions help - but we played the #8 SoS, while BC played #56. 4-8 vs #8 or 7-6 vs #56?

 

[creatorsgam]

Last three years we've been an atrocious 109th, 121st and 115th in passing defense. If we can get to a respectable say Top 75 that should hopefully be enough for us to crank out a few extra wins.

Absolutely. Especially if we can get a stronger running attack and make our offensive possessions more efficient.

 

[GoSU96]

It’s not woe is me - it’s you can’t compare year two of Marrone (100+ SoS) with year two of Babers (#8).

People (not you Chip) like to compare like it’s apples to apples. SoS is context. And it’s really, really important context.

If the Knicks go undefeated and the Warriors lose 10 games - but then it’s later revealed that the Knicks played only vs Chinese league while the Warriors played a full NBA slate it would be important context.

But in CFB, where schedules can vary by a ton it’s even more important. Conferences and divisions help - but we played the #8 SoS, while BC played #56. 4-8 vs #8 or 7-6 vs #56?

1. Who said it was apples to apples?
2. Is that the only data point in the post?
3. SoS is just one item that provides context.

 

[SUskibum]

What I'd like ...

a defense that keeps SU in games, not letting them get out of hand, as they have done.
an offense that is consistent, and this flat out means dungey has to finish the season.
and a bowl game. this schedule looks to have an easy path to five wins:

@wmu, wagner, uconn, unc, @wake. they have to win these.
@bc, "home" vs und, Clemson. these look like losses.

that leaves fsu, ncsu, and lville at home, and away vs pitt where they need to come
up with one win. for the last several years, it's been a small set of 4ish games that
determine the season, and for almost all of them, SU loses them all. it is time for
them to start winning some of these either-way games. if they'd stop giving up a
kabillion yards of offense, they'd win. i'm all for a go-fast offense, but sometimes
they run it to the detriment of the defense, and it shows with 600+ yards and 45+
pts given up. somewhere, they have to learn to balance in some clock usage.

it comes down to asking for, win the games that you're better than the other team.
and please win ONE of the ones that might be a 50-50 or 60-40 game. just one.

kevin

The defense hasn’t played many more defensive snaps (70ish) under Dino than the previous coaches.

Our increased offensive snaps have had no correlation to defensive breakdowns in November. What HAS been a correlation is a move to a tougher strength of schedule and switching coaches every few years decimating depth.

 

[Eric15]

It’s not woe is me - it’s you can’t compare year two of Marrone (100+ SoS) with year two of Babers (#8).

People (not you Chip) like to compare like it’s apples to apples. SoS is context. And it’s really, really important context.

If the Knicks go undefeated and the Warriors lose 10 games - but then it’s later revealed that the Knicks played only vs Chinese league while the Warriors played a full NBA slate it would be important context.

But in CFB, where schedules can vary by a ton it’s even more important. Conferences and divisions help - but we played the #8 SoS, while BC played #56. 4-8 vs #8 or 7-6 vs #56?

That's ridiculous... the Knicks aren't beating any Chinese teams.

 

[elimunelson]

Once we know if Dino is a good or great coach, then the issues of schedule and depth will erode into the background. We have become blame heavy (i do the same thing) on extraneous issues that have really become part of our narrative. One very easy solution is finding the right coach to get Syracuse winning games again.

We need someone to coach up this program now. Dino has his opportunity this year to do it. If we mire in a 3-4 win season again, it won't put him on the hot seat but will make me wonder if we're once again hitched to the wrong guy. I'm very optimistic he's gonna get us to 8 wins though

 

[Ish88888]

I always think expectations are a dangerous thing. The tendency is to set it at a win level. The problem with that is that if you get better (perform better, play harder, score more, etc) but your schedule gets tougher - your W/L record may look the same or worse.

Shafer, 2014: 3-9 (SoS: 57th toughest schedule)
Shafer, 2015: 4-8 (SoS: 41st toughest schedule)
Babers, 2016: 4-8 (SoS: 39th toughest schedule)
Babers, 2017: 4-8 (SoS: 8th toughest schedule)

Throw in injuries (esp at QB) and other unforeseen things - and it's pretty dubious to set expectations just at some random W number.

I also think "getting to a bowl" is kind of crap too. Sometimes a 5 win teams get in. Lesser teams from weak conferences but with .500 records play in bowls. Teams we'd beat more often than not. Is 4-8 vs the number 8 SoS worth more than 6 wins in the AAC? No one actually asks these questions (though, I hope Wildhack thinks this way).

Whatever. I think this is reasonable vs this year's schedule:

- A realistic chance to win vs every team we play (Clemson is the obvious outlier, IMO - but last year)
- A more efficient, higher scoring offense
- A better red zone TD %
- Less INT from ED
- A better running game from RB
- More sacks and TFL
- More INT from our secondary
- Less pass yards given up
- Less of a cliff if ED goes out due to injury on both offense and defense (TD should provide more than Rex and Mahoney last year, the D should have more faith in TD, and we should still believe the season won't be lost)

Thoughts?

Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense. When ED has been injured, our inability to stop anyone on D was the primary reason we went on a slide without ED.

 

[sufandu]

Eventually improvement has to lead to wins. The longer that takes, the harder it is to pitch the program to good players. We were close enough to 2 more wins last year that the improved depth and a healthy ED along with an upgraded back up if he goes down again has me expecting at least 6 wins.

 

[TheCusian]

1. Who said it was apples to apples?
2. Is that the only data point in the post?
3. SoS is just one item that provides context.

I didn’t say “@GoSU96 said it’s apples to apples” ... I said “people” ... which means some of the people who post

What data point in what post?

SoS is one of the most important points to get right for context. I didn’t say it was the only point. You’re correct

 

[TheCusian]

Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense. When ED has been injured, our inability to stop anyone on D was the primary reason we went on a slide without ED.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think the entire team feels they could have beaten anyone with ED, and not so much Mahoney. This isn’t insane as Dungey was the starter and leader of the team pretty clearly.

Not sure on your last sentence?

 

[cuse62]

My expectation is to have a team I/we can be proud. The way the coaching staff and players conduct themselves on and off the field. I believe winning is important; but not worth selling our souls.

I also expect this board to do one of two things. If we lose, Coach Babers is on the hot seat crap, or when we win, Coach Babers is leaving for a different school crap.

 

[TheCusian]

Once we know if Dino is a good or great coach, then the issues of schedule and depth will erode into the background. We have become blame heavy (i do the same thing) on extraneous issues that have really become part of our narrative. One very easy solution is finding the right coach to get Syracuse winning games again.

We need someone to coach up this program now. Dino has his opportunity this year to do it. If we mire in a 3-4 win season again, it won't put him on the hot seat but will make me wonder if we're once again hitched to the wrong guy. I'm very optimistic he's gonna get us to 8 wins though

I think SoS is different than a lot of other things that get cited as an “excuse” or reason. I really think it should be mentioned next to all W/L records. Going 9-5 in the SEC is different than 9-5 in the MAC (everyone agrees on this). But for some reason we don’t look at it within a conference or division as much.

 

[Chip]

Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense. When ED has been injured, our inability to stop anyone on D was the primary reason we went on a slide without ED.

Last year, Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense in the first half of the Wake game. That was it.

But yes, our defense fell off a cliff with the combination of overwork to starters and injuries.

I'd like to think that won't happen again, but who knows.

 

[Ish88888]

Last year, Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense in the first half of the Wake game. That was it.

But yes, our defense fell off a cliff with the combination of overwork to starters and injuries.

I'd like to think that won't happen again, but who knows.

Yes it did and i was critical on the staff that ED's loss impacted both sides of the ball so much. That the kids , while upset at the loss of their leader, cant fold as they did . I know depth was part of it, but the team lost their moxy too and that cant happen.

 

[shu 49]

I hate to say this but the bc game was a demoralizing ass kicking that I couldn’t wrap my head around last year. They pee pounded the crap out of us and they didn’t do it fancy. Dillon came down hill and no one wanted to hit him at all. Dline lb or safeties. It was ugly and it looked like we layed down. Nothing like earlier in year. I was ashamed that day. Over it now and this year is different. Let’s go.

 

[SoBristol]

Yes it did and i was critical on the staff that ED's loss impacted both sides of the ball so much. That the kids , while upset at the loss of their leader, cant fold as they did . I know depth was part of it, but the team lost their moxy too and that cant happen.

I wonder about this -- especially in the Wake game. Mahoney lit up Wake for 35 points in one half -- the offense did not miss Dungey in that half. Best half of SU offense in several years. In the second half, Wake rolled the defense -- pushed the DL around, and their QB ran wild on bootleg keepers. So, our guys missed Dungey, but only in the second half? Or, with a thin defense, several players out with injury, they wore out physically in the second half, and Mahoney reverted to average?

 

[Ish88888]

I hate to say this but the bc game was a demoralizing ass kicking that I couldn’t wrap my head around last year. They pee pounded the crap out of us and they didn’t do it fancy. Dillon came down hill and no one wanted to hit him at all. Dline lb or safeties. It was ugly and it looked like we layed down. Nothing like earlier in year. I was ashamed that day. Over it now and this year is different. Let’s go.

Yes, that game was a head scratcher in terms of trusting the process. I understand growing pains and building a program with depth, but once ED went out, the team QUIT and that was on the staff. No other explanation. Talk about depth all you want, but those last few games, especially the BC game...just not right.