Expectations

[ORRange]

Last year we ranked 79th in rushing yards per carry and 116th in Babers first year. Strickland has only two 100 yard games during that time. Lots of excuses that I've read on here as to why but it has to change. It will next year if Adams keeps his nose clean but here are my expectations this year.
1) That we should not have our starting QB lead us in rushing.
2) That we rank 50th in rushing yards per carry to keep the defense honest because our passing attack will not be as good.
3) That we use the tight end more.
4) That Strickland is replaced by game 5 because he is not a P5 caliber running back.
5) That injuries won't decimate us as badly because we have a little depth.

 

[TheCusian]

More context and why fixing the defense is the key. SU's stat history since Gerg's last year. Unless the scoring offense really aligns with yards, and that's not likely because of individual talent at the skill position, the defense can't be this bad and have a winning record. The defense doesn't have to be good, but it can't be the last two years bad.

Below is what I think is reasonable progression for 2018 and if they can get there, 6-6 should be achievable.

View attachment 137625

I don’t disagree. I do think last year needs to be split between when Martin and Scoop were healthy and when they were banged up. The D was in the 60’s through those games. It fell off a cliff in the last 3.

 

[721Comstock]

So we should invite him to faith day

Devil worship *is* a faith.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We need 6 wins and a bowl appearance because a) it's garbage when a class graduates without getting a bowl and b) next year's schedule should be lighter. If we go into next year coming off a bowl we have the chance to build momentum and change perception.

 

[anomander]

Mahoney did well as a backup and moved the offense. When ED has been injured, our inability to stop anyone on D was the primary reason we went on a slide without ED.

I’m sorry but Mahoney was a huge drop off. Eye test and look at the stats

 

[djorange1989]

I’m sorry but Mahoney was a huge drop off. Eye test and look at the stats

Yep great kid but not close to a P5 QB.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Expecting a rebound season, nearly akin to 2012, with 7 regular season wins.

Why? Both lines are better -- defense will surprise our fans. Across the OL and TE, we are better than any group since 2012. Senior QB and other seniors in key roles. Only need 1 young WR to emerge in a big way; 1 young LB to emerge; and a few surprising inputs from RsF or true , with many possible candidates. Not that much to ask. Most fans are depressed, so it will take a few games to realize that this team is actually good.

I want to feel this, too, but we keep losing depth and we keep having early season injuries. I just hope we can stay healthy this year.

 

[JLine]

I wish this was an expectation, but more of a hope. I hope our fans don’t heat up Dino’s seat if we don’t make a bowl game. I’m all in even if we only win two games. Dino is the answer. That said, I expect 6-7 wins and a bowl win. We have great talent on both lines. Senior QB, and some young players that have the ability to step up at key spots like WR and LB. LGO!

 

[SoBristol]

I want to feel this, too, but we keep losing depth and we keep having early season injuries. I just hope we can stay healthy this year.

Have to build a roster that can withstand the typical bout of August injuries (and early season injuries). Last season we had Roberts and Black out pre-season, and lost Cordy early -- essentially 3 starters. Heckel stepped in at OG, Robinson replaced Black, Jordan Martin replaced Cordy. It was the second round of injuries (Dungey, Coleman, Martin, Butler (the CB)) that hurt the performance, together with having several defensive starters banged up though continuing to play.

The depth situation should be better this round, as long as Strickland, Pierce, and Coleman can get healthy by Western Michigan (2 weeks). We have a couple of spare OL who were starters; a good second unit DL; a promising QB in the wings, and some frosh and RS- who should be ready to help by mid-season. Maybe not ideal ACC caliber depth all-around -- but the 2s are better than we have had in a while. And, yes, this is Orange-colored optimism.

 

[qdawgg]

Lol. Now you’re putting words in my mouth. I didn’t say ppl were saying Babers was a failure due to his w/l record. I said hold him accountable with w/l record - but put some context around it so that we can see clearly.

We’ve gone from zombie Big East to the 3rd toughest division in college football (with an added OOC like LSU).

Honest. Do you think Marrone’s 2nd season was more impressive than Babers?

You were the one that brought up Marrone. Nobody had previously said Marrone had done a better job. You seem to get tweaked pretty easy about these things. But you did the same thing while Shafer was the coach until the bitter end.

Babers has done a great job so far but there is definitely room for improvement. You can blame schedule, conference, injuries, building the roster, etc if you want but we've done that with every coach since Marrone.

There's nothing wrong with expecting more and I think Babers will get us there but it's still okay to ask questions without you having to bring up conference and SOS every single time.

 

[TheCusian]

You were the one that brought up Marrone. Nobody had previously said Marrone had done a better job. You seem to get tweaked pretty easy about these things. But you did the same thing while Shafer was the coach until the bitter end.

Babers has done a great job so far but there is definitely room for improvement. You can blame schedule, conference, injuries, building the roster, etc if you want but we've done that with every coach since Marrone.

There's nothing wrong with expecting more and I think Babers will get us there but it's still okay to ask questions without you having to bring up conference and SOS every single time.

Sorry, got you on ignore.

I’ll ignore the “you always” stuff and just hit the meat of it.

I brought up Marrone because people hold his 2nd year in high regard without mentioning who it was against. No context. Same as my OP in this thread, just reversed.

SOS and QB injuries are not excuses or looking for blame. They are important context.

I didn’t say we couldn’t hold Babers accountable or ask hard questions about the job he’s doing. I’ve simply stated that it’s helpful to have the proper context.

Do you typically disregard SoS or injuries when judging a coaches performance? What measure works best in your opinion?

 

[SoBristol]

Have to give Marrone credit for rebuilding from a very dark period, and getting to a bowl in year 2. Yes, it was against Big East opponents, not the 2017 SOS -- but he did not have the corresponding advantages of the ACC (more money for staff, the facilities upgrades, the ACC brand as a recruiting platform).

Looking at the SU performance in October 2017 (beating Pitt and Clemson, competing hard in other big games), Babers has the team heading in the right direction. And this season --- get to a bowl.

 

[JeffCuse]

Tom Brady is the devil

Or a God

 

[TheCusian]

Have to give Marrone credit for rebuilding from a very dark period, and getting to a bowl in year 2. Yes, it was against Big East opponents, not the 2017 SOS -- but he did not have the corresponding advantages of the ACC (more money for staff, the facilities upgrades, the ACC brand as a recruiting platform).

Looking at the SU performance in October 2017 (beating Pitt and Clemson, competing hard in other big games), Babers has the team heading in the right direction. And this season --- get to a bowl.

Yeah - I give him credit. An important year for the program, coming out of a horrible stretch. It can be important and not all that impressive at the same time. Perception is really important in CFB.

 

[GoSU96]

Yeah - I give him credit. An important year for the program, coming out of a horrible stretch. It can be important and not all that impressive at the same time. Perception is really important in CFB.

He won 8 out of 13 games. The guy before won 10 out of 47 over four seasons.

Yeah, that's impressive no matter the opposition.

 

[TheCusian]

He won 8 out of 13 games. The guy before won 10 out of 47 over four seasons.

Yeah, that's impressive no matter the opposition.

That might be the weakest schedule in our history.

I actually think the year before was more impressive. He is a good coach and his time here was pretty good. I’m not pooping on the guy.

 

[rrlbees]

 

[qdawgg]

Yeah - I give him credit. An important year for the program, coming out of a horrible stretch. It can be important and not all that impressive at the same time. Perception is really important in CFB.

That might be the weakest schedule in our history.

I actually think the year before was more impressive. He is a good coach and his time here was pretty good. I’m not pooping on the guy.

In fairness, you're kind of dropping a little bit a of a poop on the guy. You talk about the "context" with Babers all the time but then dismiss, to some degree, the context with Marrone. Marrone faced some significant roadblocks, significant.

You brought up Marrone, out of the blue. There was no reason to. Marrone had his time here and did a good job at the time. Babers has done a good job as well. I think he's a great hire, the best person we could have hired and I hope he's still here in a few years and we continue on an upward trajectory.

You can throw me back on ignore.

 

[TheCusian]

In fairness, you're kind of dropping a little bit a of a poop on the guy. You talk about the "context" with Babers all the time but then dismiss, to some degree, the context with Marrone. Marrone faced some significant roadblocks, significant.

You brought up Marrone, out of the blue. There was no reason to. Marrone had his time here and did a good job at the time. Babers has done a good job as well. I think he's a great hire, the best person we could have hired and I hope he's still here in a few years and we continue on an upward trajectory.

You can throw me back on ignore.

I’m not being unfair to Marrone. I was illustrating a point by drawing a comparison. I was clear then and I’m being clear now. I’m not disregarding context with Marrone. The guy took the job at a low point and built it up. It was and is impressive. But that season was not as impressive as Babers 2nd or even Shafer’s 1st. I *wish* Babers could have an easier schedule for year 2.

SOS is what it is. It’s largely out of a coaches hands. But when evaluating you *have to look at it*...

Guy says I ran 3 miles. Other guy says I did 15. The first guy says “mine was uphill pushing a bus” ...

 

[qdawgg]

I’m not being unfair to Marrone. I was illustrating a point by drawing a comparison. I was clear then and I’m being clear now. I’m not disregarding context with Marrone. The guy took the job at a low point and built it up. It was and is impressive. But that season was not as impressive as Babers 2nd or even Shafer’s 1st. I *wish* Babers could have an easier schedule for year 2.

SOS is what it is. It’s largely out of a coaches hands. But when evaluating you *have to look at it*...

Guy says I ran 3 miles. Other guy says I did 15. The first guy says “mine was uphill pushing a bus” ...

Were both beating dead horses. You're looking at context, one dimensionally. You use the illustration of the bus as if that only works towards explaining Babers SOS situation. That illustration also works the other way, with pushing the bus uphill being all of the things Marrone had to deal with, as has posted.

It doesn't matter. We rarely see things in any similar way and that's okay.

 

[TheCusian]

Were both beating dead horses. You're looking at context, one dimensionally. You use the illustration of the bus as if that only works towards explaining Babers SOS situation. That illustration also works the other way, with pushing the bus uphill being all of the things Marrone had to deal with, as has posted.

It doesn't matter. We rarely see things in any similar way and that's okay.

I’m fine with looking at all of the context when evaluating. I’m not trying to pick and choose which one is worth more. It all matters.

In terms of the OP? I just wanted to make sure we don’t just measure success by bowl games and w/l without context. And I think we’ve done a decent job of setting the bar pretty appropriately.

Of course, the first loss and all the crazies will come out.

 

[SoBristol]

…..

In terms of the OP? I just wanted to make sure we don’t just measure success by bowl games and w/l without context. And I think we’ve done a decent job of setting the bar pretty appropriately. ….
.

Success should be measured by bowl games & W/L, though context (SOS) comes into that. Then there is progress -- measured by recruiting wins, beating Clemson as one of those 4 wins, competing into the 4th quarter against strong teams. Babers made progress in year 2. Success in year 3?

 

[shu 49]

Marrone wouldn’t have been 8-5 2nd year if sos was 8 th in the country. No ifs and or buts about it.

 

[BlueShaq]

If you also wanna compare Marrone with Babers, I think it's also fair to consider the caliber of players each coach started out with. Gerg may not've been a great coach, but he recruited some high potential players for having such a garbage team. Marrone inherited the likes of Doug Hogue, Delone Carter, Chandler Jones, Andrew Tiller, Justin Pugh, Ryan Nassib, and Shamarko Thomas, all of whom were drafted in the first 6 rounds. When you look at the players that dino inherited, you have Dungey, Slayton, Zaire (7th round pick), Ish, (undrafted), Riley Dixon (7th round), and Cordy. Marrone got to start out with a bunch of guys who were pretty much almost physically ready guys to play big east football, they just needed to be taught technique. What Babers inherited was a bunch of undersized kids who may not have a lot of talent, but they have a lot of heart. Those'll make for some cool stories Shafer, but that's not gonna win you games in the ACC. I think there's a reason why we only have 12 shafer seniors left when there were 27 commits who were supposed to be playing this year.

 

[TheCusian]

Marrone wouldn’t have been 8-5 2nd year if sos was 8 th in the country. No ifs and or buts about it.

I think he’d have 3-4 wins. Nassib’s first year, system on O not fully formed, coming from further back after Robinson. D was good - but against elite O’s, the risky Shafer D exposes itself more.

He’d get 1 cupcake, 1 MAC win, and he’s good enough and proved enough to knock off one or two of the lower P5 teams on the schedule. I don’t think they get a win vs the best team on their schedule. Marrone actually had multiple chances at getting an elite P5 scalp and Louisville was as close as he got (my fav Marrone win, FWIW).