Four Year Basketball

[SWC75]

People are already starting to speculate about next year’s team. We will lose CJ Fair and Baye Moussa Keita. Will we have Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant? There was some speculation on the radio about what it would have been like if all our players stayed for four years. Of course, every other school could wonder about the same thing but it certainly gets you to thinking about the subject. I’m focusing only one guys who jumped to the NBA before their eligibility was up.

PEARL WASHINGTON
Our first “jumper” was Pearl Washington who would have been on the 1986-87 shoulda been a national championship team. Of course, Sherman Douglas inherited pearl’s point guard spot and began his own legend. He had played behind the Pearl in 1985-86 and did pretty darn well:

Pearl Washington 32.2m 21.5p 3.1r 9.7a 3.2s 0.0b 37.5+ 7.3mfg 1.8mft 4.1to 3.4pf 16.6- = 20.9NP 12.4OE 8.5FG
Sherman Douglas 11.4m 19.0p 4.3r 7.4a 4.3s 0.7b 35.7+ 4.7mfg 1.7mft 4.3to 4.3pf 15.0- = 20.7NP 12.6OE 8.1FG

The General was even more commanding when he got tossed the keys in 1986-87:
Sherman Douglas32.6m 21.3p 3.1r 9.3a 2.1s 0.2b 36.0+ 7.0mfg 1.7mft 3.9to 2.3pf 14.9- = 21.1NP 12.6OE 8.5FG

We’d be in good shape with either one of them at the helm. We’d have more depth with both. Could they have somehow played together? I think they could have meshed their skills, even alternated controlling the ball. But you wonder if egos might have gotten in the way and neither was a consistently long-range shooter, which the under-rated Greg Monroe was:
Greg Monroe31.0m 16.6p 3.2r 5.2a 1.5s 0.0b 25.0+ 6.4mfg 0.6mft 1.8to 1.7pf 10.5- = 14.5NP 9.6OE 4.9FG

Maybe the three of them would have formed a triumvirate, like Jardine-Triche-Waiters in 2011-2012.

Would we have been remarkably better? Probably not. If the Pearl and the General each wanted their own ball, they might have been worse. But they just needed two more points to become a national champion. Could the Pearl have provided those two points? Might he have demanded the ball after Smart’s shot and dribbled the length of the court to score? It would have been just like him to do that.

BILLY OWENS
Bill left after his junior year in 1990-91 when he’d led the team to their first out-right Big East regular season title, (and our last for two decades). Unfortunately the season ended with our only double one and done: We blew a 16 point lead against a 15-13 Villanova team in the BET and then a shell-shocked team lost to Richmond in the NCAAs a week later. But that team still wound up 26-6 and ranked #7(writer’s)/8 (coaches) and the only other significant loss was LeRon Ellis. Dave Johnson and Adrian Autry were back, as was Mike Hopkins. And Conrad McRae would move from being a back-up center to the starter. And a freshman named Lawrence Moten was about to join the team.

But Moten only got his chance to start because of the absence of Owens. He certainly would have made an interesting sixth man. Instead he became the star, (with Dave Johnson) of the 1991-92 team that went 22-10, 10-8 in the conference and lost to John Calipari’s first really good UMASS team, 71-77 in overtime, in the NCAAs, (helped by a bad out of bounds call in the final seconds of regulation that the refs later apologized for). That was the first of the pretty good teams of the90’s we had to get used to after “Raw Recruits”, the Post Standard series, the NCAA investigation and the probation that hit us for the 1992-93 season. But with Billy, it would have been the last of the “powerhouse” teams of the 1985-91 period:

1985-86 26-6, 9th ranked; 1986-87 31-7 3rd; 1987-88 26-9, 9th; 1988-89 30-8 7th; 1989-90 26-7 6th; 1990-91 26-6 7th

1991-92 22-10 21st; 1992-93 20-9, unranked; 1993-94 23-7 15th; 1994-95 20-10, 25th 1995-96 29-9 15th; 1996-97 19-13 unranked; 1997-98 26-9 20th; 1998-99 21-12 20th

Lawrence Moten in 1992-92:
33.8m 21.6p 7.1r 2.3a 1.7s 1.3b +34.0 7.2mfg 1.9mft 3.0to 3.2pf -15.3 = 18.7NP 9.6OE 9.1FG

Billy Owens in 1990-91:
38.0m 24.5p 12.2r 3.6a 2.6s 1.2b +44.1 9.0mfg 2.5mft 3.7to 2.8pf -18.0 = 26.1NP 13.0OE 13.1FG

CARMELO ANTHONY
The ultimate “one and done” guy. Here are his freshmen numbers:
2002-03 36.4m 24.4p 11.0r 2.4a 1.7s 0.9b +40.4 10.5mfg 2.2mft 2.4to 2.4pf -17.5 = 22.9NP 11.7OE 11.2FG

And he led us to our only national championship. He then became an NBA star and used some of his millions to build us the Carmelo Anthony Center which has enabled us to play at a very high level the last few years, even if he wasn’t playing on those teams. He’s become “the face of the franchise” for Syracuse basketball and his contributions to our program arguably exceed that of any four year player. But what if he’d stayed for four years?

Our greatest teams have had superior players at forward. Forwards are usually your leading scorers and best all-around player. They can contribute in all phases of the game and are in the bets position to “carry” a team by demanding the ball during the rough patches. Addison and Alexis. Coleman and Owns, Wallace and Burgan. Johnson and Jackson or Joseph. Joseph and Fair. Fair and Grant. I still remember Coleman and Owens dominating Georgetown when they had Mourning and Motumbo when we beat them for the first time at Georgetown, 95-76, 1/27/90.

Melo’s partner at forward for what would have been his first three years was another one of our great forwards, Hakim Warrick:
2002-03 32.7m 18.1p 10.4r 2.0a 1.7s 1.5b +33.7 5.8mfg 2.2mft 3.2to 3.3pf -14.5 = 19.2NP 10.1OE 9.1FG
2003-04 37.3m 21.3p 9.2r 2.8a 1.0s 1.2b 35.5+ 7.4mfg 2.6mft 3.3to 2.9pf 16.2- = 19.3NP 11.3OE 8.0FG
2004-05 37.5m 22.8p 9.2r 1.6a 1.0s 0.8b 35.4+ 6.6mfg 3.1mft 2.7to 2.5pf 14.9- = 20.5NP 13.1OE 7.4FG

Melo would have gotten better and better himself and his partnership with Warrick would have been something to see those next two years.

More importantly, the Terrence Roberts Era would have been postponed until he was a senior:
2003-04: 7.6m 9.3p 9.0r 0.8a 1.9s 1.7b 22.7+ 6.4mfg 1.9mft 2.7to 7.6pf 18.6- = 4.1NP 1.0OE 3.1FG
(In fact we really didn’t have a second forward that year: Pace, Edelin and then Nichols took most of those minutes)
2004-05: 18.5m 15.6p 8.5r 1.3a 2.4s 1.8b 29.6+ 4.7mfg 2.4mft 3.0to 6.5pf 16.6- = 13.0NP 8.5OE 4.5FG
2005-06: 31.9m 13.5p 9.6r 2.0a 1.7s 1.6b 28.4+ 7.6mfg 1.0mft 2.2to 3.3pf 14.1- = 14.5NP 4.9OE 9.6FG

We’d have been national title contenders every year Melo was here. Now if we also could have had Edelin at the point and GMAC at the 2 for four years, we’d have been regulars in the Final Four and probably won more than the one title.

DONTE GREENE
He was a lanky, talented guy who surprisingly left after one year:
35.8m 19.8p 8.0r 2.3a 1.4s 1.8b 33.3+ 9.7mfg 1.2mft 2.9to 3.2pf 17.0- = 16.3NP 8.9OE 7.4FG
I don’t even remember him being as good as those numbers but they are certainly very good numbers for a freshman. Let’s compare those numbers to Jerami Grant as a sophomore this year:
31.1m 15.4p 8.7r 1.8a 1.0s 0.7b 27.6+ 5.7mfg 2.4mft 1.4to 2.8pf 12.3- = 15.3NP 7.3OE 8.0FG

Donte was a growing boy, (6-9 when he was here, 6-11 now) and would have gotten better and better as he progressed here. Instead he opted for the NBA money after a disappointing 21-14, NIT season. Looking at the minutes played by the guys on the 2007-08 and 2008-09 teams:

2007-08: Paul Harris 1264; Donte Greene 1253; Jonny Flynn 1243; Arinze Onuaku 1070; Scoop Jardine 646; Kristoff Ongenaet 634; Eric Devendorf 342 (in 10 games before he got hurt).

2008-09: Jonny Flynn 1418; Eric Devendorf 1220; Paul Harris 1130; Andy Rautins 1059; Arinze Onuaku 1017; Rick Jackson 839; Kristoff Ongenaet 515; Kris Joseph 458.

The guy who replaced Donte Green was mostly Andy Rautins, one of my favorite recent players but not one who produced as much statistically:
2008-09 28.6m 14.6p 4.6r 4.2a 2.0s 0.2b 25.6+ 7.9mfg 0.5mft 2.8to 2.8pf 14.0- = 11.6NP 6.2OE 5.4FG
2009-10 32.5m 14.9p 4.2r 6.0a 2.4s 0.3b 27.8+ 5.8mfg 0.5mft 3.4to 2.7pf 12.4- = 15.4NP 8.6OE 6.8FG

The other guy who picked up Greene’s minutes, (and, like Greene, was a forward), was Rick Jackson:
2008-09 22.1m 15.0p 10.4r 1.7a 1.6s 2.9b 31.6+ 4.0mfg 1.9mft 2.9to 3.6pf 12.4- = 19.2NP 9.1OE 10.1FG
2009-10 26.3m 14.8p 10.7r 2.6a 1.6s 3.0b 32.7+ 4.5mfg 1.9mft 3.0to 3.0pf 12.4- = 20.3NP 8.4OE 11.9FG
2010-11 35.6m 14.7p 11.6r 2.5a 1.5s 2.8b 33.1+ 4.3mfg 2.1mft 2.3to 2.3pf 11.0- = 22.1NP 8.3OE 13.8FG

I think Rautins in 2009-10 was a better player than greener in 2007-08 and that Rich Jackson was certainly better, even in 2008-09. Whether they were better than what Greene could have become here, I don’t know. Greene actually became a pretty good NBA player, averaging 13.0ppg for four years. The injury bug bit him after that. We did a pretty good job of replacing him after he left here and had some of our best teams.

JONNY FLYNN
Here’s Jonny Flynn’s freshman year:
2007-08 35.5m 17.6p 3.0r 6.0a 1.7s 0.2b 28.5+ 7.2mfg 1.0mft 3.1to 1.6pf 12.9- = 15.6NP 9.4OE 6.2FG

Here’s Tyler Ennis as a freshman:
2013-14 35.5m 14.0p 3.8r 6.2a 2.3s 0.2b 26.5+ 6.6mfg 1.3mft 2.0to 2.3pf 12.2- = 14.3NP 6.1OE 8.2FG

Jonny is the better scorer. Tyler, (who is a little bigger) is a better rebounder, despite Jonny’s famous “hops” and gets more steals. Jonny misses a few more shots and has more turnovers. Tyler somehow commits more fouls. Jonny’s better overall but Tyler’s edge in the floor game might be more important to his point guard position.

Here is Jonny’s second year:
2008-09 37.3m 18.7p 2.9r 7.2a 1.5s 0.2b 30.5+ 7.2mfg 1.4mft 3.6to 1.6pf 13.6- = 16.7NP 10.1 OE 6.6FG

He scored more, assisted more but turned the ball more even more. We’ll see what Tyler’s second year looks like.

Jonny missed being on one of our greatest teams, my favorite of the recent bunch, 2009-10. We had two of everything on that team: two inside scorers, Onuaku and Jackson, two good outside shooters, Johnson and Rautins. We also had two point guards:

Brandon Triche
2009-10 21.3m 15.2p 3.4r 5.3a 1.6s 0.1b 25.6+ 5.4mfg 1.6mft 3.8to 2.4pf 13.2- = 12.4NP 8.2OE 4.2FG
2010-11 28.8m 15.5p 3.7r 4.0a 1.1s 0.1b 24.4+ 7.1mfg 0.6mft 2.9to 2.7pf 13.3- = 11.1NP 7.8OE 3.3FG

Scoop Jardine
2009-10 22.2m 16.3p 3.5r 7.8a 2.1s 0.1b 29.8+ 6.1mfg 1.2mft 3.4to 2.6pf 13.3- = 16.5NP 9.0OE 7.5FG
2010-11 32.1m 15.6p 2.7r 7.3a 2.0s 0.2b 27.8+ 7.7mfg 1.3mft 3.6to 2.2pf 14.8- = 13.0NP 6.6OE 6.4FG

They did a very good job and Jardine’s numbers in 2009-10 are similar to Flynn’s the previous year. But, as with Greene, we don’t know how good Jonny could have gotten. He might have added a little more strength to the 2009-10 team but that team’s main problem was losing Onuaku at the wrong time. He might have a greater impact on the 2010-11 team, when both Jardine and Triche had somewhat worse years. I have to believe that a senior Flynn might have handled things better down the stretch vs. Marquette in the NCAAs.

WES JOHNSON
Wes had two years of eligibility left after his transfer from Iowa State but only sued one of them. But it was quite a year:
2009-10 35.0m 18.9p 9.8r 2.5a 1.9s 2.1b 35.2+ 6.7mfg 1.1mft 2.6to 2.4pf 12.8- = 22.4NP 11.1OE 11.6FG

Compare that to Carmelo Anthony’s one year here:
2002-03 36.4m 24.4p 11.0r 2.4a 1.7s 0.9b +40.4 10.5mfg 2.2mft 2.4to 2.4pf -17.5 = 22.9NP 11.7OE 11.2FG

Both were the star players for 30-5 teams. Wes’ team got to the #1 ranking and Melo’s won the national title. Melo was the greater scorer and rebounder. Wes blocked more shots and missed far fewer. Their net numbers are virtually identical.

When Wes left for a disappointing and injury-plagued pro career, Kris Joseph, CJ Fair and James Southerland got his minutes. Their skills at the time, if combined, might have added up to Wes Johnson:
Joseph: 32.4m 17.6p 6.5r 2.7a 1.9s 0.8b 29.5+ 6.8mfg 1.9mft 2.7to 2.3pf 13.7- = 15.8NP 8.9OE 6.9FG
Fair: 18.6m 13.7p 8.2r 0.9a 1.7s 1.7b 26.2+ 4.6mfg 1.7mft 1.8to 2.6pf 10.7- = 15.5NP 7.4OE 8.1FG
Southerland: 14.1m 13.7p 6.4r 1.3a 1.4s 1.6b 24.4+ 7.0mfg 0.3mft 0.6to 3.5pf 11.4- = 13.0NP 6.4OE 6.6FG
But none, as an individual, was his equal.

With Rick Jackson having a tremendous year inside, he and Wes, (and Jonny) might have given us an unbroken string of 30 win seasons in this decade. But as it was, we went 27-8, which is still pretty good.

I’m not going to include Fab Melo in this group because, given his acadme3ic problems, I don’t think his coming back was an option, even if he hadn’t gone to the NBA.


DION WAITERS
Here are Dion’s numbers in his last year here, when we went 34-3:
2011-12 24.1m 21.0p 3.8r 4.1a 3.0s 0.5b 32.4+ 8.4mfg 1.4mft 2.2to 3.1pf 15.1- = 17.3NP 11.2OE 6.1FG

Here are the numbers for his replacement, Trevor Cooney:
2012-13: 11.2m 12.2p 2.9r 2.1a 2.6s 0.3b 20.1+ 9.1mfg 0.4mft 1.7to 3.0pf 14.2- = 5.9NP 2.7OE 3.2FG
2013-14: 32.6m 15.3p 2.6r 1.5a 2.4s 0.1b 21.9+ 7.2mfg 0.3mft 0.9to 1.3pf 9.7- = 12.2NP 7.8OE 4.4FG

Our last two teams have been offensive challenged and Dion Waiters is exactly what we needed to solve that problem.


MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS
Let’s compare MCW last year to Tyler Ennis this year:
MCW: 35.2m 13.5p 5.5r 8.3a 3.2s 0.5b 31.0+ 6.8mfg 1.6mft 3.9to 2.6pf 14.9- = 16.1NP 5.1OE 11.0FG
Ennis: 35.5m 14.0p 3.8r 6.2a 2.3s 0.2b 26.5+ 6.6mfg 1.3mft 2.0to 2.3pf 12.2- = 14.3NP 6.1OE 8.2FG
Tyler is actually scoring slightly more but MCW was a better rebounder, passer and ball-hawk. He did have more turnovers- a lot more. But on balance, he was the better player. And he would have been better this year than last, with Tyler Ennis to back him up, (which I think was JB’s plan).

Imagine if we had a backcourt of MCW as a junior and Dion Waiters as a senior. Here are their NBA numbers this year, (per 40 minutes, rather than 48):
MCW: 34.4m 19.5p 6.5r 7.3a 2.3s 0.8b 36.4+ 10.7mfg 1.9mft 4.4to 3.5pf 20.5- = 15.9NP 6.96OE 9.0FG
Waiters: 27.7m 20.8p 4.1r 3.7a 1.3s 0.3b 30.2+ 10.8mfg 1.4mft 3.2to 3.1pf 18.5- = 11.7NP 8.6OE 3.1FG

There’s a lot of missed shots there and more turnovers than we’ve been having but these and 1sty and 2nd year players in the NBA. Will Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney even be NBA players? Surely if MCW and Neon Dion were our starting backcourt, we’d have no trouble scoring.

 

[AccuRater]

Wow! Where to begin? Great stuff here, as always. Some surprises:

I don't recall Donte looking like his numbers. Seemed like more of a perimeter player than a banger. But that's a lot of rebounds.

Of course Wes was terrific. But I wasn't aware that his net numbers were so close to Carmelo's. Interesting that Carmelo missed so many shots. My orange tinged memory forgot a lot of those.

No question Tyler is an exceptional talent, while Scoop was frustrating at times. But Scoop's numbers as a freshman surpassed Tyler's! And the Sophomore numbers were close. I guess the turnovers and occasional questionable decisions stick in one's memory.

Lot's more to chew on here. But I gotta get to work. It will be fun to revisit after our season is over. Hopefully no sooner than April 9.

 

[weedsportwarriors]

Great write up. The part I like best is this sentence on comparison of Ennis to Flynn.

"He scored more, assisted more but turned the ball more even more. We’ll see what Tyler’s second year looks like." I hope we get this chance to see him in orange for a second year.

 

[AccuRater2]

I wish more players would stay for 4 years. Actually, I wish the NBA would change its rules and follow MLB and/or NFL rules. It's frustrating to get "into" someone who you know is going to leave in one year. I remember how excited we were with Wes Johnson coming to SU. Then we only got to watch him for one year.

 

[Dave85]

I wish more players would stay for 4 years. Actually, I wish the NBA would change its rules and follow MLB and/or NFL rules. It's frustrating to get "into" someone who you know is going to leave in one year. I remember how excited we were with Wes Johnson coming to SU. Then we only got to watch him for one year.

Things may be a little different this year. Over the last few years a lot players leaving early for the NBA have not done very well. A player making the decision today may be more willing to take into account the amount of playing time they will actually get in the NBA or D-League in their decision. Would you rather be the first or second best player on the team and get lots of playing time or just sit on the bench. Yeah the money is great but sitting on the bench is not going to improve a player's game very quickly. I think players might considered how best to have a long and more successful career in the NBA. There's always going to be one or two players who are one and done and then become NBA superstars like Anthony or James. But I don't think Grant or Ennis fall into same category that includes Anthony and James. As great and athletic Grant is on our team my impression is he would be just barely average in the NBA. I doubt Ennis would have the kind of season MCW is having. MCW is a freak of nature in which his natural abilities just work in the NBA. Ennis would be less than average in the NBA at this point. I doubt he would even get any playing time and would end up in the D-league after one year. The NBA is a completely different animal that college ball.

I hope Ennis and Grant stay another year. I think it will ultimately benefit them more in having a longer more successful NBA career. This is just my opinion so for anyone who reads this do not go ape crazy calling me an idiot.

 

[OttoMets]

I'm not inclined to mess with a good thing retroactively; I tend to think that a lot of the good SU teams mentioned here were good in part because of - not in spite of - the early departure of talented players. This includes the Pearl.

Exceptions (however unrealistic it may be that some of these guys would have stayed in school):

Carmelo. Even if Edelin didn't consistently stick with the team, this would've given us an extra scorer and made us a potential Final Four team in 2004 and probably a championship favorite in 2005. And he could have improved his game - upping that ~35% three-point percentage to something ridiculous and becoming a 25-12-5 player.

Edelin. I think his absence cost us somewhere from 12-16 wins over the last three years of his career. His presence would have given us a good shot at a Final Four in 2004 and 2005. Unfortunately it also would have cost Eric Devendorf a lot of court time (I hesitate to say "slowed his development," since he wasn't a player who seemed to develop much) in 2006; perhaps McNamara could have made up for this lost shooting.

Fab. Hard to say he made the right choice, given his current career situation. It's not like he hurt our chemistry when he was here; the problem was that he was a lazy turd who wasn't always here. With a 2012-level Fab, I think we'd have played Louisville for the title last year. With improvement, who knows. He'd add something this year, too, especially defensively (a great interior defender can make up for porous defense up top). And in 2012? He could have made a difference.

Partial exceptions:
Wes could've helped. How much, I don't know. But he made a good career choice and we had a pretty decent team in 2011.
Paul Harris could've - in a perfect world - helped. I don't think we'd have lost to Butler with him on the floor. But it's not a perfect world and I don't think we'd have gotten to 30-4 with him on the team in a very reduced role.
In terms of gross scoring, Dion could've helped. In terms of chemistry and the possibility of Michael Carter-Williams pulling a Kermit Washington on him (or vice versa), that could have spiraled into a 2002 situation last season. Limited as it was, it's best that we had that backcourt last season.
Billy Owens could've helped. But I don't want to change much about Moten's career and I sure don't want to change the composition of that Dave Johnson Big East Championship team. Billy was extremely talented, if not a leader or a particularly hard worker. We would have had a better seed and a better draw with him on the team. Better end result? Who knows.

The rest:
Thanks for the effort, guys. You'd have made those teams more talented, but I bet they wouldn't have been more successful.

 

[SWC75]

I think they should allow players to go right to the pros if they want to but if a player goes to college, use the rule that applied in the old days: you can't draft them until their college class has graduated, to encourage kids to get a degree.

 

[Doc5120]

People are already starting to speculate about next year’s team. We will lose CJ Fair and Baye Moussa Keita. Will we have Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant? There was some speculation on the radio about what it would have been like if all our players stayed for four years. Of course, every other school could wonder about the same thing but it certainly gets you to thinking about the subject. I’m focusing only one guys who jumped to the NBA before their eligibility was up.

PEARL WASHINGTON
Our first “jumper” was Pearl Washington who would have been on the 1986-87 shoulda been a national championship team. Of course, Sherman Douglas inherited pearl’s point guard spot and began his own legend. He had played behind the Pearl in 1985-86 and did pretty darn well:

Pearl Washington 32.2m 21.5p 3.1r 9.7a 3.2s 0.0b 37.5+ 7.3mfg 1.8mft 4.1to 3.4pf 16.6- = 20.9NP 12.4OE 8.5FG
Sherman Douglas 11.4m 19.0p 4.3r 7.4a 4.3s 0.7b 35.7+ 4.7mfg 1.7mft 4.3to 4.3pf 15.0- = 20.7NP 12.6OE 8.1FG

The General was even more commanding when he got tossed the keys in 1986-87:
Sherman Douglas32.6m 21.3p 3.1r 9.3a 2.1s 0.2b 36.0+ 7.0mfg 1.7mft 3.9to 2.3pf 14.9- = 21.1NP 12.6OE 8.5FG

We’d be in good shape with either one of them at the helm. We’d have more depth with both. Could they have somehow played together? I think they could have meshed their skills, even alternated controlling the ball. But you wonder if egos might have gotten in the way and neither was a consistently long-range shooter, which the under-rated Greg Monroe was:
Greg Monroe31.0m 16.6p 3.2r 5.2a 1.5s 0.0b 25.0+ 6.4mfg 0.6mft 1.8to 1.7pf 10.5- = 14.5NP 9.6OE 4.9FG

Maybe the three of them would have formed a triumvirate, like Jardine-Triche-Waiters in 2011-2012.

Would we have been remarkably better? Probably not. If the Pearl and the General each wanted their own ball, they might have been worse. But they just needed two more points to become a national champion. Could the Pearl have provided those two points? Might he have demanded the ball after Smart’s shot and dribbled the length of the court to score? It would have been just like him to do that.

BILLY OWENS
Bill left after his junior year in 1990-91 when he’d led the team to their first out-right Big East regular season title, (and our last for two decades). Unfortunately the season ended with our only double one and done: We blew a 16 point lead against a 15-13 Villanova team in the BET and then a shell-shocked team lost to Richmond in the NCAAs a week later. But that team still wound up 26-6 and ranked #7(writer’s)/8 (coaches) and the only other significant loss was LeRon Ellis. Dave Johnson and Adrian Autry were back, as was Mike Hopkins. And Conrad McRae would move from being a back-up center to the starter. And a freshman named Lawrence Moten was about to join the team.

But Moten only got his chance to start because of the absence of Owens. He certainly would have made an interesting sixth man. Instead he became the star, (with Dave Johnson) of the 1991-92 team that went 22-10, 10-8 in the conference and lost to John Calipari’s first really good UMASS team, 71-77 in overtime, in the NCAAs, (helped by a bad out of bounds call in the final seconds of regulation that the refs later apologized for). That was the first of the pretty good teams of the90’s we had to get used to after “Raw Recruits”, the Post Standard series, the NCAA investigation and the probation that hit us for the 1992-93 season. But with Billy, it would have been the last of the “powerhouse” teams of the 1985-91 period:

1985-86 26-6, 9th ranked; 1986-87 31-7 3rd; 1987-88 26-9, 9th; 1988-89 30-8 7th; 1989-90 26-7 6th; 1990-91 26-6 7th

1991-92 22-10 21st; 1992-93 20-9, unranked; 1993-94 23-7 15th; 1994-95 20-10, 25th 1995-96 29-9 15th; 1996-97 19-13 unranked; 1997-98 26-9 20th; 1998-99 21-12 20th

Lawrence Moten in 1992-92:
33.8m 21.6p 7.1r 2.3a 1.7s 1.3b +34.0 7.2mfg 1.9mft 3.0to 3.2pf -15.3 = 18.7NP 9.6OE 9.1FG

Billy Owens in 1990-91:
38.0m 24.5p 12.2r 3.6a 2.6s 1.2b +44.1 9.0mfg 2.5mft 3.7to 2.8pf -18.0 = 26.1NP 13.0OE 13.1FG

CARMELO ANTHONY
The ultimate “one and done” guy. Here are his freshmen numbers:
2002-03 36.4m 24.4p 11.0r 2.4a 1.7s 0.9b +40.4 10.5mfg 2.2mft 2.4to 2.4pf -17.5 = 22.9NP 11.7OE 11.2FG

And he led us to our only national championship. He then became an NBA star and used some of his millions to build us the Carmelo Anthony Center which has enabled us to play at a very high level the last few years, even if he wasn’t playing on those teams. He’s become “the face of the franchise” for Syracuse basketball and his contributions to our program arguably exceed that of any four year player. But what if he’d stayed for four years?

Our greatest teams have had superior players at forward. Forwards are usually your leading scorers and best all-around player. They can contribute in all phases of the game and are in the bets position to “carry” a team by demanding the ball during the rough patches. Addison and Alexis. Coleman and Owns, Wallace and Burgan. Johnson and Jackson or Joseph. Joseph and Fair. Fair and Grant. I still remember Coleman and Owens dominating Georgetown when they had Mourning and Motumbo when we beat them for the first time at Georgetown, 95-76, 1/27/90.

Melo’s partner at forward for what would have been his first three years was another one of our great forwards, Hakim Warrick:
2002-03 32.7m 18.1p 10.4r 2.0a 1.7s 1.5b +33.7 5.8mfg 2.2mft 3.2to 3.3pf -14.5 = 19.2NP 10.1OE 9.1FG
2003-04 37.3m 21.3p 9.2r 2.8a 1.0s 1.2b 35.5+ 7.4mfg 2.6mft 3.3to 2.9pf 16.2- = 19.3NP 11.3OE 8.0FG
2004-05 37.5m 22.8p 9.2r 1.6a 1.0s 0.8b 35.4+ 6.6mfg 3.1mft 2.7to 2.5pf 14.9- = 20.5NP 13.1OE 7.4FG

Melo would have gotten better and better himself and his partnership with Warrick would have been something to see those next two years.

More importantly, the Terrence Roberts Era would have been postponed until he was a senior:
2003-04: 7.6m 9.3p 9.0r 0.8a 1.9s 1.7b 22.7+ 6.4mfg 1.9mft 2.7to 7.6pf 18.6- = 4.1NP 1.0OE 3.1FG
(In fact we really didn’t have a second forward that year: Pace, Edelin and then Nichols took most of those minutes)
2004-05: 18.5m 15.6p 8.5r 1.3a 2.4s 1.8b 29.6+ 4.7mfg 2.4mft 3.0to 6.5pf 16.6- = 13.0NP 8.5OE 4.5FG
2005-06: 31.9m 13.5p 9.6r 2.0a 1.7s 1.6b 28.4+ 7.6mfg 1.0mft 2.2to 3.3pf 14.1- = 14.5NP 4.9OE 9.6FG

We’d have been national title contenders every year Melo was here. Now if we also could have had Edelin at the point and GMAC at the 2 for four years, we’d have been regulars in the Final Four and probably won more than the one title.

DONTE GREENE
He was a lanky, talented guy who surprisingly left after one year:
35.8m 19.8p 8.0r 2.3a 1.4s 1.8b 33.3+ 9.7mfg 1.2mft 2.9to 3.2pf 17.0- = 16.3NP 8.9OE 7.4FG
I don’t even remember him being as good as those numbers but they are certainly very good numbers for a freshman. Let’s compare those numbers to Jerami Grant as a sophomore this year:
31.1m 15.4p 8.7r 1.8a 1.0s 0.7b 27.6+ 5.7mfg 2.4mft 1.4to 2.8pf 12.3- = 15.3NP 7.3OE 8.0FG

Donte was a growing boy, (6-9 when he was here, 6-11 now) and would have gotten better and better as he progressed here. Instead he opted for the NBA money after a disappointing 21-14, NIT season. Looking at the minutes played by the guys on the 2007-08 and 2008-09 teams:

2007-08: Paul Harris 1264; Donte Greene 1253; Jonny Flynn 1243; Arinze Onuaku 1070; Scoop Jardine 646; Kristoff Ongenaet 634; Eric Devendorf 342 (in 10 games before he got hurt).

2008-09: Jonny Flynn 1418; Eric Devendorf 1220; Paul Harris 1130; Andy Rautins 1059; Arinze Onuaku 1017; Rick Jackson 839; Kristoff Ongenaet 515; Kris Joseph 458.

The guy who replaced Donte Green was mostly Andy Rautins, one of my favorite recent players but not one who produced as much statistically:
2008-09 28.6m 14.6p 4.6r 4.2a 2.0s 0.2b 25.6+ 7.9mfg 0.5mft 2.8to 2.8pf 14.0- = 11.6NP 6.2OE 5.4FG
2009-10 32.5m 14.9p 4.2r 6.0a 2.4s 0.3b 27.8+ 5.8mfg 0.5mft 3.4to 2.7pf 12.4- = 15.4NP 8.6OE 6.8FG

The other guy who picked up Greene’s minutes, (and, like Greene, was a forward), was Rick Jackson:
2008-09 22.1m 15.0p 10.4r 1.7a 1.6s 2.9b 31.6+ 4.0mfg 1.9mft 2.9to 3.6pf 12.4- = 19.2NP 9.1OE 10.1FG
2009-10 26.3m 14.8p 10.7r 2.6a 1.6s 3.0b 32.7+ 4.5mfg 1.9mft 3.0to 3.0pf 12.4- = 20.3NP 8.4OE 11.9FG
2010-11 35.6m 14.7p 11.6r 2.5a 1.5s 2.8b 33.1+ 4.3mfg 2.1mft 2.3to 2.3pf 11.0- = 22.1NP 8.3OE 13.8FG

I think Rautins in 2009-10 was a better player than greener in 2007-08 and that Rich Jackson was certainly better, even in 2008-09. Whether they were better than what Greene could have become here, I don’t know. Greene actually became a pretty good NBA player, averaging 13.0ppg for four years. The injury bug bit him after that. We did a pretty good job of replacing him after he left here and had some of our best teams.

JONNY FLYNN
Here’s Jonny Flynn’s freshman year:
2007-08 35.5m 17.6p 3.0r 6.0a 1.7s 0.2b 28.5+ 7.2mfg 1.0mft 3.1to 1.6pf 12.9- = 15.6NP 9.4OE 6.2FG

Here’s Tyler Ennis as a freshman:
2013-14 35.5m 14.0p 3.8r 6.2a 2.3s 0.2b 26.5+ 6.6mfg 1.3mft 2.0to 2.3pf 12.2- = 14.3NP 6.1OE 8.2FG

Jonny is the better scorer. Tyler, (who is a little bigger) is a better rebounder, despite Jonny’s famous “hops” and gets more steals. Jonny misses a few more shots and has more turnovers. Tyler somehow commits more fouls. Jonny’s better overall but Tyler’s edge in the floor game might be more important to his point guard position.

Here is Jonny’s second year:
2008-09 37.3m 18.7p 2.9r 7.2a 1.5s 0.2b 30.5+ 7.2mfg 1.4mft 3.6to 1.6pf 13.6- = 16.7NP 10.1 OE 6.6FG

He scored more, assisted more but turned the ball more even more. We’ll see what Tyler’s second year looks like.

Jonny missed being on one of our greatest teams, my favorite of the recent bunch, 2009-10. We had two of everything on that team: two inside scorers, Onuaku and Jackson, two good outside shooters, Johnson and Rautins. We also had two point guards:

Brandon Triche
2009-10 21.3m 15.2p 3.4r 5.3a 1.6s 0.1b 25.6+ 5.4mfg 1.6mft 3.8to 2.4pf 13.2- = 12.4NP 8.2OE 4.2FG
2010-11 28.8m 15.5p 3.7r 4.0a 1.1s 0.1b 24.4+ 7.1mfg 0.6mft 2.9to 2.7pf 13.3- = 11.1NP 7.8OE 3.3FG

Scoop Jardine
2009-10 22.2m 16.3p 3.5r 7.8a 2.1s 0.1b 29.8+ 6.1mfg 1.2mft 3.4to 2.6pf 13.3- = 16.5NP 9.0OE 7.5FG
2010-11 32.1m 15.6p 2.7r 7.3a 2.0s 0.2b 27.8+ 7.7mfg 1.3mft 3.6to 2.2pf 14.8- = 13.0NP 6.6OE 6.4FG

They did a very good job and Jardine’s numbers in 2009-10 are similar to Flynn’s the previous year. But, as with Greene, we don’t know how good Jonny could have gotten. He might have added a little more strength to the 2009-10 team but that team’s main problem was losing Onuaku at the wrong time. He might have a greater impact on the 2010-11 team, when both Jardine and Triche had somewhat worse years. I have to believe that a senior Flynn might have handled things better down the stretch vs. Marquette in the NCAAs.

WES JOHNSON
Wes had two years of eligibility left after his transfer from Iowa State but only sued one of them. But it was quite a year:
2009-10 35.0m 18.9p 9.8r 2.5a 1.9s 2.1b 35.2+ 6.7mfg 1.1mft 2.6to 2.4pf 12.8- = 22.4NP 11.1OE 11.6FG

Compare that to Carmelo Anthony’s one year here:
2002-03 36.4m 24.4p 11.0r 2.4a 1.7s 0.9b +40.4 10.5mfg 2.2mft 2.4to 2.4pf -17.5 = 22.9NP 11.7OE 11.2FG

Both were the star players for 30-5 teams. Wes’ team got to the #1 ranking and Melo’s won the national title. Melo was the greater scorer and rebounder. Wes blocked more shots and missed far fewer. Their net numbers are virtually identical.

When Wes left for a disappointing and injury-plagued pro career, Kris Joseph, CJ Fair and James Southerland got his minutes. Their skills at the time, if combined, might have added up to Wes Johnson:
Joseph: 32.4m 17.6p 6.5r 2.7a 1.9s 0.8b 29.5+ 6.8mfg 1.9mft 2.7to 2.3pf 13.7- = 15.8NP 8.9OE 6.9FG
Fair: 18.6m 13.7p 8.2r 0.9a 1.7s 1.7b 26.2+ 4.6mfg 1.7mft 1.8to 2.6pf 10.7- = 15.5NP 7.4OE 8.1FG
Southerland: 14.1m 13.7p 6.4r 1.3a 1.4s 1.6b 24.4+ 7.0mfg 0.3mft 0.6to 3.5pf 11.4- = 13.0NP 6.4OE 6.6FG
But none, as an individual, was his equal.

With Rick Jackson having a tremendous year inside, he and Wes, (and Jonny) might have given us an unbroken string of 30 win seasons in this decade. But as it was, we went 27-8, which is still pretty good.

I’m not going to include Fab Melo in this group because, given his acadme3ic problems, I don’t think his coming back was an option, even if he hadn’t gone to the NBA.


DION WAITERS
Here are Dion’s numbers in his last year here, when we went 34-3:
2011-12 24.1m 21.0p 3.8r 4.1a 3.0s 0.5b 32.4+ 8.4mfg 1.4mft 2.2to 3.1pf 15.1- = 17.3NP 11.2OE 6.1FG

Here are the numbers for his replacement, Trevor Cooney:
2012-13: 11.2m 12.2p 2.9r 2.1a 2.6s 0.3b 20.1+ 9.1mfg 0.4mft 1.7to 3.0pf 14.2- = 5.9NP 2.7OE 3.2FG
2013-14: 32.6m 15.3p 2.6r 1.5a 2.4s 0.1b 21.9+ 7.2mfg 0.3mft 0.9to 1.3pf 9.7- = 12.2NP 7.8OE 4.4FG

Our last two teams have been offensive challenged and Dion Waiters is exactly what we needed to solve that problem.


MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS
Let’s compare MCW last year to Tyler Ennis this year:
MCW: 35.2m 13.5p 5.5r 8.3a 3.2s 0.5b 31.0+ 6.8mfg 1.6mft 3.9to 2.6pf 14.9- = 16.1NP 5.1OE 11.0FG
Ennis: 35.5m 14.0p 3.8r 6.2a 2.3s 0.2b 26.5+ 6.6mfg 1.3mft 2.0to 2.3pf 12.2- = 14.3NP 6.1OE 8.2FG
Tyler is actually scoring slightly more but MCW was a better rebounder, passer and ball-hawk. He did have more turnovers- a lot more. But on balance, he was the better player. And he would have been better this year than last, with Tyler Ennis to back him up, (which I think was JB’s plan).

Imagine if we had a backcourt of MCW as a junior and Dion Waiters as a senior. Here are their NBA numbers this year, (per 40 minutes, rather than 48):
MCW: 34.4m 19.5p 6.5r 7.3a 2.3s 0.8b 36.4+ 10.7mfg 1.9mft 4.4to 3.5pf 20.5- = 15.9NP 6.96OE 9.0FG
Waiters: 27.7m 20.8p 4.1r 3.7a 1.3s 0.3b 30.2+ 10.8mfg 1.4mft 3.2to 3.1pf 18.5- = 11.7NP 8.6OE 3.1FG

There’s a lot of missed shots there and more turnovers than we’ve been having but these and 1sty and 2nd year players in the NBA. Will Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney even be NBA players? Surely if MCW and Neon Dion were our starting backcourt, we’d have no trouble scoring.

As usual, awesome job! This helps get me through work on a Friday.

I do have 1 question on some of the stats though...are they based on 40 min? For example, you have Carmelo averaging 24.4 pts, Wes Johnson at 18.9 and Dion at 21. I thought these seemed a bit high, so I looked them up and verified they are higher than their actual averages. Again, just wondering if I was misreading or if these are based on 40 min. Thanks SWC.

 

[SWC75]

As usual, awesome job! This helps get me through work on a Friday.

I do have 1 question on some of the stats though...are they based on 40 min? For example, you have Carmelo averaging 24.4 pts, Wes Johnson at 18.9 and Dion at 21. I thought these seemed a bit high, so I looked them up and verified they are higher than their actual averages. Again, just wondering if I was misreading or if these are based on 40 min. Thanks SWC.

m = minutes per game in which the player was available
p = points per 40 minutes
r= rebounds "
a = assists "
s = steals "
b = blocks "
+ = the total of p + r + a +s + b
mfg = missed field goals per 40 minutes
mft = missed free throws "
to = turnovers "
pf= personal fouls "
- = mfg + mft + to + pf
NP = + minus ("Net Points")
OE = p minus mfg and mft ("Offensive Efficiency")
FG = NP - OE ("Floor Game")

 

[General20]

I don't agree at all that Moten would have been the sixth man had Owens stayed. You don't bench a guy capable of putting up 18ppg.

If Owens had stayed we would have been looking at a starting line up of Autry, Moten, Johnson, Owens, McRae and that would have been arguably the most talented Syracuse team of all time.

 

[OttoMets]

I don't agree at all that Moten would have been the sixth man had Owens stayed. You don't bench a guy capable of putting up 18ppg.

If Owens had stayed we would have been looking at a starting line up of Autry, Moten, Johnson, Owens, McRae and that would have been arguably the most talented Syracuse team of all time.

That would have been a very potent lineup, like the next two Moten/Autry teams.

But Boeheim, like a lot of coaches, often benches someone capable of those numbers. He did it that very year with Anthony Harris.

Especially given the amount of man they played in 1992, I can't see Boeheim starting Moten as a guard or giving him significant minutes there, intriguing as that idea is.

 

[RF2044]

I'm not inclined to mess with a good thing retroactively; I tend to think that a lot of the good SU teams mentioned here were good in part because of - not in spite of - the early departure of talented players. This includes the Pearl.

Exceptions (however unrealistic it may be that some of these guys would have stayed in school):

Carmelo. Even if Edelin didn't consistently stick with the team, this would've given us an extra scorer and made us a potential Final Four team in 2004 and probably a championship favorite in 2005. And he could have improved his game - upping that ~35% three-point percentage to something ridiculous and becoming a 25-12-5 player.

Edelin. I think his absence cost us somewhere from 12-16 wins over the last three years of his career. His presence would have given us a good shot at a Final Four in 2004 and 2005. Unfortunately it also would have cost Eric Devendorf a lot of court time (I hesitate to say "slowed his development," since he wasn't a player who seemed to develop much) in 2006; perhaps McNamara could have made up for this lost shooting.

Fab. Hard to say he made the right choice, given his current career situation. It's not like he hurt our chemistry when he was here; the problem was that he was a lazy turd who wasn't always here. With a 2012-level Fab, I think we'd have played Louisville for the title last year. With improvement, who knows. He'd add something this year, too, especially defensively (a great interior defender can make up for porous defense up top). And in 2012? He could have made a difference.

Partial exceptions:
Wes could've helped. How much, I don't know. But he made a good career choice and we had a pretty decent team in 2011.
Paul Harris could've - in a perfect world - helped. I don't think we'd have lost to Butler with him on the floor. But it's not a perfect world and I don't think we'd have gotten to 30-4 with him on the team in a very reduced role.
In terms of gross scoring, Dion could've helped. In terms of chemistry and the possibility of Michael Carter-Williams pulling a Kermit Washington on him (or vice versa), that could have spiraled into a 2002 situation last season. Limited as it was, it's best that we had that backcourt last season.
Billy Owens could've helped. But I don't want to change much about Moten's career and I sure don't want to change the composition of that Dave Johnson Big East Championship team. Billy was extremely talented, if not a leader or a particularly hard worker. We would have had a better seed and a better draw with him on the team. Better end result? Who knows.

The rest:
Thanks for the effort, guys. You'd have made those teams more talented, but I bet they wouldn't have been more successful.

A couple of quick reactions:

• Agree 100% about your assessment of Pearl / Sherman. Addition by subtraction, as talented as Dwayne was. Sherman needed the ball in his hands to be effective, but so did Pearl. They wouldn't have meshed [just like Sherman and Earl Duncan couldn't mesh].

• Wes would have helped that 2011 team IMMENSELY. That team was offensively challenged, lacked consistent shooters, and was at its best with Rick shifting from the 4 to the 5. Wes would have increased our size on the backline, given us improved rebounding, and another perimeter threat. He and Rick would have been an outstanding inside / outside combo.

• Not sure that Paul would have helped in 2010. I don't want to pile on Harris, who I think gets dumped on a lot here. But that 2010 team had perfect balance and chemistry. They also were perhaps the best interior passing team we've ever had. I'm not sure where Paul would have played; maybe he could have paired with Rautins and given us unbelievable size on the top of the zone. But more likely, he would have played as an undersized 3 and cut into Kris Joseph's playing time [and KJ ended up being nationally rated as the top 6th man that year by one prominent publication]. Would Harris have started over, say, a Brandon Triche? Hard to say. More likely, he wouldn't have taken a bench demotion well and might have impacted overall team chemistry.

• I like your point about Edelin--no doubt, he cost us a number of games. He was really beginning to play well when his issues / demons took him away. And I think that although GMac was capable of handling the point, he was at his best as a complimentary shooter / scorer, and Edelin would have allowed him to play off of the ball. Those 2004 / 2005 teams were a bit undersized, and would have been miniscule on the perimeter with that backcourt, but I believe that Edelin [as a savvy four year player] would have really helped those teams.

 

[General20]

That would have been a very potent lineup, like the next two Moten/Autry teams.

But Boeheim, like a lot of coaches, often benches someone capable of those numbers. He did it that very year with Anthony Harris.

Especially given the amount of man they played in 1992, I can't see Boeheim starting Moten as a guard or giving him significant minutes there, intriguing as that idea is.

I liked Harris as a freshmen but there is absolutely no comparison between he and Moten. Moten is Syracuse's (and the Big East's) all time leading scorer, he would not have played fewer than 30 min a game on any Syracuse team, especially not in favor of Edwards and Hopkins. Moten had no trouble defending shooting guards (and neither did Johnson for that matter). Absolutely no chance he sits the bench for extended minutes.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

One thing that people don't talk about when they discuss guys going pro early - that opens up more scholarships for other student-athletes. Somebody passing on the college game to attempt to go pro is an invitation to another to get a scholarship.

 

[Syracuse44]

Again, players leaving early is part of the equation of being a top 10-15 team. You will get great 1-2 year talents like MCW, Wes, Dion, Ennis, Grant, etc. you just have to blend those guys with good 4 year program guys like CJ, Keita, Scoop, Kris, Andy, etc. JB and the staff have done an exceptional job of this for the last 5 years.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

Great list couldn't you add Devo and Paul? Didn't they leave a year ofeligibility

 

[OttoMets]

I liked Harris as a freshmen but there is absolutely no comparison between he and Moten. Moten is Syracuse's (and the Big East's) all time leading scorer, he would not have played fewer than 30 min a game on any Syracuse team, especially not in favor of Edwards and Hopkins. Moten had no trouble defending shooting guards (and neither did Johnson for that matter). Absolutely no chance he sits the bench for extended minutes.

Unfortunately there's no way of knowing.

I'm of the opinion that a lot of these guys are high-level talents and would score 15 points a game if force-fed minutes and given a lot of touches. (Of course Moten did better than that.) There are capable guys who don't produce simply because they aren't given the playing time needed to produce.

Moten got his opportunity when Owens bailed. Had he not, I think, he would have been one of the many players who makes the "sophomore leap" after playing inconsistent minutes during his first year.

 

[SWC75]

Great list couldn't you add Devo and Paul? Didn't they leave a year ofeligibility

They didn't wind up in the NBA and my impression is that they were pushed, rather than jumped.

 

[SWC75]

This article in the Sunday paper:
The 10 greatest What-If teams in Syracuse basketball history
... prompted me to bump this old thread

 

[RandygoCuse]

Strange that we had so few Big East titles. I guess in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't mean much. But with our consistency, you'd think we would have ended up on top more.

 

[OttoMets]

This article in the Sunday paper:
The 10 greatest What-If teams in Syracuse basketball history
... prompted me to bump this old thread

I'm a sucker for that kind of exercise, but that was full of stupid what-ifs. Big disappointment; 100 posters on here could've made a more reasonable list. What if Carmelo Anthony was a junior in 2005? Come on, that's ridiculous.

I also take issue with the "definitely not an NIT team" conclusion about the 2008 team. Why, because they had such a difficult time scoring without Devendorf? Please, they were a 6-3 team with him. Offense wasn't what they lacked; leadership and defense were the missing elements, and a full year of Devendorf wasn't going to make up for that.

That list is like "Ten Hypotheticals for People Who Don't Really Follow Basketball." Give me some Edelin what-ifs, some Darryl Watkins without the December 2004 injury, some Earl Duncan speculation. This was outrageous and off-the-wall stuff combined with foolishness like "Hey, maybe continued mediocre production from Chris McCullough would've made a crappy team better."

Nevertheless, nice bump. I like the old thread a lot more than the professional's piece.