FSU forms Expansion/Realignment Committee

[Bayside44]

Hasn't the ACC won 3 of the last 6 NCAA tournaments? 9 schools in the dance is fantastic, you get to play a conference opponent in the 2nd round that has your scheme figured out.

I wouldn't stand in the middle of Death Valley on gameday and tell them they're not respectable. I however have stood on the banks of the Raritan and told those guys exactly that.

 

[raf4488]

Hasn't the ACC won 3 of the last 6 NCAA tournaments? 9 schools in the dance is fantastic, you get to play a conference opponent in the 2nd round that has your scheme figured out.

I wouldn't stand in the middle of Death Valley on gameday and tell them they're not respectable. I however have stood on the banks of the Raritan and told those guys exactly that.

The rest of the conference is not even competitive with Duke and UNC at this point. For the soccer fans out there, Duke and UNC are Barca and Real Madrid, and everyone else knows they're playing for 3rd before the season even starts.
Our ninth place team won the title, their third place team was FSU. If that doesn't show you the gulf in quality between the leagues, I don't know what will.
The only reason we played a conference opponent in the second round is the stupidity of the committee. They could have easily arranged the BE teams so none met on the first weekend, but couldn't or didn't want to.
Comparing Clemson to Rutgers just isn't fair. I could go to Wallace Wade on any fall weekend and there might be 20K there, even Rutgers fans would laugh.

 

[shantydaze]

Please offer your explanation considering:

1) FSU looks and jumps from the ACC, while VPI and others are looking elsewhere
2) the ACC is clearly the weakest AQ conference
3) The Big East is soon to make more money by all accounts
4) There is no incentive to join a weaker football conference for less money

Oh, yeah, you just want to. Good business sense. Not sure why your last statement means anything if FSU leaves. Why would anyone want the ACC over any other AQ if there is no respectable football, they earn less money and they suck in basketball. At the very least, every Big East team will wait until negotiations next fall before considering a jump to the ACC since they cannot get the money any sooner in the ACC or the Big East and the potential differnce is too great to not wait and see what is offerred.

Not being from the Northeast, I admittedly find the ACC more intriguing because I would find SU football games against the majority of ACC schools more interesting than games against USF, Louisville, and Cincinnati. In fact, prior to coming to SU, the only BE team I paid attention to was Miami.

As you pointed about about the ACC, absent FSU the only national brand in the ACC is Miami. But, since Miami left to go to the ACC, has the BE had a national brand? To be a national brand, I think people will tune in regardless of whether the team is winning or losing (think Notre Dame and the number of people who revel in watching them lose). As a result, I do not think there are many national brand teams:

ACC - Miami, FSU
BE - ?
Big Ten - Michigan, OSU, Nebraska
Big 12 - Texas, Oklahoma
Pac-12 - USC
SEC - Alabama, Florida

Teams like Boise State, TCU, West Virginia, Texas Tech, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Oregon, etc. can be a flavor of the month when they are undefeated and potentially spoilers for the national title picture, but as soon as they lose a game (or in the case of SEC teams, two games) does anyone care? Think of how quickly Boise State fell off the map last year after the loss to Nevada and how little TCU is talked about this year after the opening loss to Baylor.

I am also not sure the ACC is "clearly" the weakest AQ conference. When looking at bowl wins, out of conference wins, etc., the Big East does look good, but how many casual or non-BE football fans look at and consider those facts. Without a playoff, strength of a conference is largely about perception and rankings. Since 2005, the ACC has had 25 teams ranked in the Preseason AP Top 25 and 21 in the final AP rankings. The BE on the other hand has 12 teams ranked in the preseason and 13 in the final rankings.

Year Preseason Final
ACC BE ACC BE
2005 5 1 4 2
2006 4 2 3 3
2007 2 3 3 2
2008 3 3 3 2
2009 4 0 4 3
2010 5 2 4 1
2011 2 1

Granted this does not take into account where the teams are ranked, but it does show the perception of BE football, especially before the games are played. In the end, neither conference is setting the world on fire.

 

[Bayside44]

The rest of the conference is not even competitive with Duke and UNC at this point. For the soccer fans out there, Duke and UNC are Barca and Real Madrid, and everyone else knows they're playing for 3rd before the season even starts.
Our ninth place team won the title, their third place team was FSU. If that doesn't show you the gulf in quality between the leagues, I don't know what will.
The only reason we played a conference opponent in the second round is the stupidity of the committee. They could have easily arranged the BE teams so none met on the first weekend, but couldn't or didn't want to.
Comparing Clemson to Rutgers just isn't fair. I could go to Wallace Wade on any fall weekend and there might be 20K there, even Rutgers fans would laugh.

Go across the street from Wally Wade and you have a cathedral of American sport. Go across the street from the Rutgers Stadium and not so much.

Let's see what Maryland does with Turgeon...Gary got stale the past few years at Maryland. The rest of those schools I agree have some issues, but they have investments in their programs.

 

[IthacaMatt]

http://www.statesman.com/sports/lon...three-viable-realignment-options-1851020.html

UT to the ACC not just fan fiction? Andy Katz thinks it could happen as well.

One last spot.

It HAS to happen. Nobody can remain in a conference with the Longhorns having their own separate TV deal. Everybody else is assigning themselves to second class status in their own conference. Each remaining school becomes another version of the Washington Generals, fodder for the viewers to see Texas beat each week. Nobody can stay in that conference. Texas thinks they can cram a deal down the ACC's throat like Notre Dame has with the Big East. The ACC is the only conference who would go for it (or the Big East, of course, but that would never ever happen, because our bulk and imbalance makes us likely to be second to go down.

The Big 10 and Pac 10 has taken the position that they are all pooling their TV money. They won't allow Texas to keep its network, so those 2 won't happen. Period. That's not hard to see.

Texas won't hold the Big 12 together, that's what we just found out with the Oklahoma and OK State discussions with the Pac 10. So it's every man for himself mode. They seem done to me.

The Big East looks smart for having started talking to the refugees from Kansas, K State and Missouri. That really secures the BCS status of the football league. Not necessarily elite teams, but good enough teams that they are viewed as legitimate BCS schools, not teams making the step up. That's huge for the Big East's brand, not to turn into the Metro Conference or Conference USA, version 2 (or 3).

So that leaves 2 issues:

1. If Texas goes to the ACC, do they go to 14 or 16?

2. When Texas A&M goes to the SEC, who else does the SEC add to balance things, and do they stop at 14 or go to 16?

I think if Texas goes to the ACC, it helps keep Fla. State, who has been advertising their availability the past couple days. And it makes the ACC want to make that fell swoop, and grab 3 from the Big East to fill out the 16. I don't see the ACC wanting Kansas, K State, Mizzou, or the Okies. They just don't fit. Texas has the best academic profile, and the schools do want bragging rights about these things, the academic prestige. So, does the ACC grab Syracuse, UConn and Pitt to wrap things up? I think so. I don't think Rutgers really has any brand for TV purposes, while Pitt does, and it is a good academic school with an impressive amount of research.

That leaves a Big East of

TCU, Kansas, K State, Missouri, Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, Rutgers, West Virginia - still a viable football conference that would keep the name and the automatic BCS bid and a 4 home / 4 away conf. schedule.

Remaining hoops onlies: Villanova, St. John's, Georgetown, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Seton Hall - which is still the magical 16 teams for purposes of hoops, with 9 for football .

But where's Notre Dame? Unless the Big 10 can poach someone good to go with them to make a league of 14, I think Notre Dame stays in the Big East for as long as they stay good enough to keep their own football contract (with NBC or independently, like Texas has done).

Who would the Big 10 add of the caliber to make it worthwhile? The only school I see is Oklahoma, whose rivalry with Nebraska would be a HUGE game for the Big 10. Can Oklahoma do it without Okla State? Only their legislature knows for sure. But that would be a hell of a conference TV package.

If all of that happens, it shakes out like this:

ACC - 16

Texas, Fla State, Miami, Ga Tech, Clemson, NC State, NC, Duke, Wake, BC, Pitt, SU, UConn, Maryland, Va Tech, Va

Big 10 -14

Mich, Mich State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Wisc, Iowa, Minn, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue

That's what it's looking like to me.

 

[Moontan]

Since 2005, the ACC has had ... 21 in the final AP rankings. The BE on the other hand has ... 13 in the final rankings.

You seem to overlook the fact that the ACC is 50% larger than the BE. If you were to include TCU in the BE's numbers and account for the size differential they'd be about equal. Throw in the anti-BE media influence (who votes in the AP poll again?), which is very evident in the preseason polls, and you may see things a bit differently.

 

[Alsacs]

It HAS to happen. Nobody can remain in a conference with the Longhorns having their own separate TV deal. Everybody else is assigning themselves to second class status in their own conference. Each remaining school becomes another version of the Washington Generals, fodder for the viewers to see Texas beat each week. Nobody can stay in that conference. Texas thinks they can cram a deal down the ACC's throat like Notre Dame has with the Big East. The ACC is the only conference who would go for it (or the Big East, of course, but that would never ever happen, because our bulk and imbalance makes us likely to be second to go down.

The Big 10 and Pac 10 has taken the position that they are all pooling their TV money. They won't allow Texas to keep its network, so those 2 won't happen. Period. That's not hard to see.

Texas won't hold the Big 12 together, that's what we just found out with the Oklahoma and OK State discussions with the Pac 10. So it's every man for himself mode. They seem done to me.

The Big East looks smart for having started talking to the refugees from Kansas, K State and Missouri. That really secures the BCS status of the football league. Not necessarily elite teams, but good enough teams that they are viewed as legitimate BCS schools, not teams making the step up. That's huge for the Big East's brand, not to turn into the Metro Conference or Conference USA, version 2 (or 3).

So that leaves 2 issues:

1. If Texas goes to the ACC, do they go to 14 or 16?

2. When Texas A&M goes to the SEC, who else does the SEC add to balance things, and do they stop at 14 or go to 16?

I think if Texas goes to the ACC, it helps keep Fla. State, who has been advertising their availability the past couple days. And it makes the ACC want to make that fell swoop, and grab 3 from the Big East to fill out the 16. I don't see the ACC wanting Kansas, K State, Mizzou, or the Okies. They just don't fit. Texas has the best academic profile, and the schools do want bragging rights about these things, the academic prestige. So, does the ACC grab Syracuse, UConn and Pitt to wrap things up? I think so. I don't think Rutgers really has any brand for TV purposes, while Pitt does, and it is a good academic school with an impressive amount of research.

That leaves a Big East of

TCU, Kansas, K State, Missouri, Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, Rutgers, West Virginia - still a viable football conference that would keep the name and the automatic BCS bid and a 4 home / 4 away conf. schedule.

Remaining hoops onlies: Villanova, St. John's, Georgetown, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Seton Hall - which is still the magical 16 teams for purposes of hoops, with 9 for football .

But where's Notre Dame? Unless the Big 10 can poach someone good to go with them to make a league of 14, I think Notre Dame stays in the Big East for as long as they stay good enough to keep their own football contract (with NBC or independently, like Texas has done).

Who would the Big 10 add of the caliber to make it worthwhile? The only school I see is Oklahoma, whose rivalry with Nebraska would be a HUGE game for the Big 10. Can Oklahoma do it without Okla State? Only their legislature knows for sure. But that would be a hell of a conference TV package.

If all of that happens, it shakes out like this:

ACC - 16

Texas, Fla State, Miami, Ga Tech, Clemson, NC State, NC, Duke, Wake, BC, Pitt, SU, UConn, Maryland, Va Tech, Va

Big 10 -14

Mich, Mich State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Wisc, Iowa, Minn, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue

That's what it's looking like to me.

OU will never get into the B1G for academic reasons. Plus, Oklahoma State is attached at the hip with Oklahoma no chance they go to the B1G without little brother and there is NO CHANCE Okie State would get into the B1G. If the B1G got Notre Dame the 14th team from the West would be Missouri. Solid AAU academics brings the KC and St. Louis markets into the BTN fold, and it has a pretty good rivalry with Illinois.
However, I honestly don't see 16 team conferences happening right now because of ESPN's influence. One of the biggest undertalked aspects has been ESPN's relationship with the LHN and their interest in protecting their properties. ACC would take WVU over UConn if the SEC didn't take them because the ACC lawsuit is really going to hurt UConn to the ACC. BC will oppose them greatly and if they don't have to take them they won't if there are other options. I could see the ACC going Texas, Kansas, Syracuse, Pittsburgh. Creating a blue-blood basketball conference.

 

[SmilinBob]

WV is very unhappy with the BE and wants out, what happens if they leave? We gain TCU and lose WV. Granted their only option is the SEC but they are chompin at the bit to leave and if they get an invite and do leave, how does that look for BE stability? What if Pitt goes to the ACC or Big 10 as well then what does SU have then? Those Big 12 leftovers really don't want to be in the BE and Kansas would leave for the PAC if they get the chance along with Missouri always wanting to be in the Big 10.

If by some miracle the ACC gets Texas and ND Syracuse would be incredibly foolish not to go. My other question is what happens if Pitt and SU go to the ACC, what is ND going to do when two BE basketball powerhouses leave, will the money still be too good to stay or would it be better for ND to work out a deal like Texas and have their network and be in the ACC for all sports. If the ACC can swing this my guess is they can renegotiate a deal that could be huge.

There are a lot of unknown variables out there but money is most the most coveted and then stability. Who will offer the best of both? The key to me is that SU is smart and doesn't get caught with their pants down and if conferences go to 16 and SU waits it's possible there won't be a chair to sit in when the music stops.

 

[Alsacs]

Cuse will make the 4 x 16, 64 over Cincinnati, USF, Iowa State, Kansas State and Baylor no problem to worry about that, but we just need to get into a conference that fits the profile we are trying to create. The ACC guy on the radio link from yesterday said it right you want to be a conference you deem has academic and athletic peers you want to associate with. Give an ACC with Texas, Pitt, and any 16th school over Kaiser's BMW.

 

[SmilinBob]

But if they all go to 14 and Pitt and WV are gone, what then?

 

[All4SU]

Since 2005, the ACC has had 25 teams ranked in the Preseason AP Top 25 and 21 in the final AP rankings. The BE on the other hand has 12 teams ranked in the preseason and 13 in the final rankings.

Year Preseason Final
ACC BE ACC BE
2005 5 1 4 2
2006 4 2 3 3
2007 2 3 3 2
2008 3 3 3 2
2009 4 0 4 3
2010 5 2 4 1
2011 2 1

The rest of your post was great. But the above info is misleading for obvious reasons. 12 teams vs. 8 teams don't really make an Apples to Apples comparison. Other than that, spot on.

 

[shantydaze]

You seem to overlook the fact that the ACC is 50% larger than the BE. If you were to include TCU in the BE's numbers and account for the size differential they'd be about equal. Throw in the anti-BE media influence (who votes in the AP poll again?), which is very evident in the preseason polls, and you may see things a bit differently.

Actually it is only 33% larger. As I pointed out in the last sentence of my post, the rankings show the perception of BE football. For most casual fans who do not follow a BE school, the rankings are all they see and they judge the BE accordingly.

 

[All4SU]

Umm...12 is 50% larger than 8.

 

[VaSaltine]

Umm...12 is 50% larger than 8.

love it

 

[IthacaMatt]

If ND were to go to the Big 10, I think that Oklahoma would be the better 14th school, to reestablish their rivalry with Nebraska. They are a tremendous brand, and reasonably contiguous. I see the northestern Big East football schools (other than maybe Pitt or Rutgers) winding up in the ACC

 

[Faegan]

If ND were to go to the Big 10, I think that Oklahoma would be the better 14th school, to reestablish their rivalry with Nebraska. They are a tremendous brand, and reasonably contiguous. I see the northestern Big East football schools (other than maybe Pitt or Rutgers) winding up in the ACC

Ok and Ok State are joined at the hip. No way Ok St is getting into the Big 10.

 

[IthacaMatt]

OU will never get into the B1G for academic reasons. Plus, Oklahoma State is attached at the hip with Oklahoma no chance they go to the B1G without little brother and there is NO CHANCE Okie State would get into the B1G. If the B1G got Notre Dame the 14th team from the West would be Missouri. Solid AAU academics brings the KC and St. Louis markets into the BTN fold, and it has a pretty good rivalry with Illinois.
However, I honestly don't see 16 team conferences happening right now because of ESPN's influence. One of the biggest undertalked aspects has been ESPN's relationship with the LHN and their interest in protecting their properties. ACC would take WVU over UConn if the SEC didn't take them because the ACC lawsuit is really going to hurt UConn to the ACC. BC will oppose them greatly and if they don't have to take them they won't if there are other options. I could see the ACC going Texas, Kansas, Syracuse, Pittsburgh. Creating a blue-blood basketball conference.

Neither Nebraska nor Notre Dame are in that prstigious research consortium. All the earlier criteria we heard from the Big 10 (contiguous states, AIA membership, cable TV homes, NYC market) have all turned out to be wrong. They went for the biggest natinal brand - Nebraska. Oklahoma & Nebraska reunited would be tremendous programming.

 

[shantydaze]

Umm...12 is 50% larger than 8.

Eight is also 66% of 12, so the missing four teams are only 33% of the total 12 teams. I do see where you and jurrie came up with 50% though. It all depends on how you approach the question. I approached it from what percentage of 12 is eight and the two of you looked at what percentage of eight is required to reach 12.

 

[longtimefan]

Eight is also 66% of 12, so the missing four teams are only 33% of the total 12 teams. I do see where you and jurrie came up with 50% though. It all depends on how you approach the question. I approached it from what percentage of 12 is eight and the two of you looked at what percentage of eight is required to reach 12.

Here's how it goes:

Going from 8 to 12 is a 50% increase.

Going from 12 to 8 is a 33⅓% decrease.

So yes, 12 is *50%* greater than 8.

 

[kyleslamb]

if the B1G gets ND and then they get mizzou...they take BC before maryland.

regardless, Syracuse is still better off in the acc than some bullsheep newBMW with a leftover kansas, iowa and whatever is left in texas.

I'm fairly certain BC won't get a B1G invite. Their R&D is not very good. In fact, it would be the lowest in the Big Ten by over $200 million a year. Big Ten presidents are looking very much at those figures and Notre Dame is the only school that will get a pass in research.

Maryland is poised for an invite in some form or another IMHO. I think they have risen to the top of the Big Ten's list (sans Notre Dame and Texas).