How many of these guys will make an NBA roster?

[OttoinGrotto]

Our walk ons, or any walk ons? Because there's a solid chance the #1 pick in this years draft will be a walk on.

You got me there.

 

[moqui]

I think people are underrating our talent actually.

first of all, I think they are vastly overrating it
second of all, I have to believe that you don't watch much NBA basketball.

Fab is a 1st rounder

Waiters and Joseph will get a look, late 1st or 2nd round

that is it.

MCW and Rak are wait and see, but based only on what we've seen, it is a "no."

 

[OttoinGrotto]

first of all, I think they are vastly overrating it
second of all, I have to believe that you don't watch much NBA basketball.

Fab is a 1st rounder

Waiters and Joseph will get a look, late 1st or 2nd round

that is it.

MCW and Rak are wait and see, but based only on what we've seen, it is a "no."

I watch the NBA.:noidea:

I think we're just treating this exercise a lot differently. My bar for what making it to the NBA means is really low. Part of the exercise for me is reconciling that with what I think guys will do since they aren't a finished product.

Overall, I'm bullish on our guys because I'm not differentiating between fringe NBA talents and sure NBA talents.

 

[moqui]

My bar for what making it to the NBA means is really low.

that much is obvious .

I guess if you define the bar so low that appearing in a few games with the Maine Red Claws or the Erie Bay Hawks makes you a fringe NBA player then, sure, Scoop Jardine and CJ Fair are fringe NBA players.

 

[CorduroyG]

These debates are silly, and we have them every year. Nobody really knows. The same people laughing about scoop getting a crack at the nba are probably the same people who laughed about andy rautins getting a crack. (and no i dont think scoop will make the nba, just making a point.) If chris quinn can last 5 years in the nba then its stupid to say "so and so has no shot."

Might as well throw in my 2 cents. Kris will get drafted and id be surprised if he didnt stick around a couple years before he takes his talent overseas. I think melo and dion are locks

 

[OttoinGrotto]

that much is obvious .

I guess if you define the bar so low that appearing in a few games with the Maine Red Claws or the Erie Bay Hawks makes you a fringe NBA player then, sure, Scoop Jardine and CJ Fair are fringe NBA players.

What can I say, I'm easy.

 

[jekelish]

that much is obvious .

I guess if you define the bar so low that appearing in a few games with the Maine Red Claws or the Erie Bay Hawks makes you a fringe NBA player then, sure, Scoop Jardine and CJ Fair are fringe NBA players.

I think you vastly underestimate CJ Fair's potential.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

These debates are silly, and we have them every year. Nobody really knows. The same people laughing about scoop getting a crack at the nba are probably the same people who laughed about andy rautins getting a crack. (and no i dont think scoop will make the nba, just making a point.) If chris quinn can last 5 years in the nba then its stupid to say "so and so has no shot."

Might as well throw in my 2 cents. Kris will get drafted and id be surprised if he didnt stick around a couple years before he takes his talent overseas. I think melo and dion are locks

Did Andy really get a crack? Chris Quinn played actual minutes in the NBA.

 

[jekelish]

If you remain on a roster for an entire year, then I say yes, you got a crack.

 

[CorduroyG]

Did Andy really get a crack? Chris Quinn played actual minutes in the NBA.

A full season on an nba roster, not sure if thats a crack or not, but i guarantee its 1 season more than 98% of the people on this board thought he'd get

 

[moqui]

I think you vastly underestimate CJ Fair's potential.

both can be true - I can underestimate his potential and at the same time know that at the moment he in no way, shape or form resembles an NBA player. He is drastically undersized as an NBA 4 and does not have the remotest resemblance of a 3's offensive game - not a chance in hell to be an NBA player.

 

[jekelish]

Fair point. Right this second, obviously CJ is not an NBA player. I'm thinking of where I THINK he will be in two more years. At that point, I think he'll be an All-ACC (that was weird to type) player and will get a long look in the NBA.

 

[OttoMets]

I think you vastly underestimate CJ Fair's potential.

Trouble is, he's only got NBA guard size (despite the claims of some on here, even Boeheim's on record saying that Fair is 6'5"). To scouts, Fair's ceiling isn't much different from Joseph's.

He might become a really good college player, and he might get a look from an NBA team, but he'd need a dramatically improved (and different) game in order to stick.

I'll look forward to seeing what CJ does next year as our starting 3.

 

[jekelish]

Fair is bigger than 6-5. Now, he may only be 6-6 or maybe 6-7, but he's bigger than 6-5. Last time I went to a game, he was easily 2 inches taller than Mookie standing over on the sideline.

 

[The General]

Agreed. I think people tend to underestimate how incredibly few available NBA roster spots there are.

With the new CBA teams will have to fill out rosters with cheap rookies to try to stay under the cap. Take a look at the Lakers. They have kept all four of their second round picks from the last two years. Ebanks, Goudlock, Morris, Caracter all made the roster.

Did anyone think that Ebanks would be an NBA starter? Wes Matthews?

Now, both those guys are better athletes than Fair. But CJ is only a Soph. If he's a legit 6'7, 6'8 and continues to progress, work on his range... couldn't he be a defensive minded 3 at next level? He rebounds well, has good feel, touch on his J, if he can play solid m2m, why can't he be a Barnes or Sefalosha or whatever?

Maybe he isn't quick/athletic enough. And if ur telling me he's 6'5 and not the listed 6'8, then forget it. But it's not gonna be about offense. Those players, their job is to D up, crash boards, get loose balls and hit the occasional wide open J. Every team needs those guys.

He'll be our starting 3 next year. We'll see. I still think he has an outside shot as a niche player.

 

[The General]

Btw I love Waiters. But he's either Rashard McCants or at best a JR Rider type. He will get drafted, he'll get a chance. But a McCants type career wouldn't surprise me. And if he had a career like JR (minus the headaches) I'd be pleased.

 

[moqui]

He'll be our starting 3 next year.

I wouldn't take that to the bank if I was you.

 

[The General]

"making a roster" is a pretty low bar. Mookie Watkins and Damone Brown have made NBA rosters, and there are several guys on this team better than them.

The real question is "how many guys on this team will play meaningful NBA minutes?" Answering that requires us coming up with a meaningful definition of "meaningful NBA minutes."

how about these standards:
How many players on the current SU roster will:

• garner over 500 minutes of gametime in the NBA (Dave Johnson and Damone Brown fail this test)
• appear in at least 50 games in any single NBA season
• appear in at least 40 games in two or more NBA seasons (LeRon Ellis fails this test)
• if a late first round pick, earn an NBA contract beyond their 3 year guarantee (Donte Greene will probably fail this test)
• if a 2nd round pick, will earn a 2nd NBA contract of any length

This list is basically the Lawrence Moten standard. Moten passed every one of these tests (except of course the 1st round pick test). And, I think most of us would agree that Moten was a bare minimum NBA player. At least, most of us who watch the NBA.

So, how many guys on the current roster will have an NBA career as long as Lawrence Moten (parts of 3 seasons, 119 games, 1800+ minutes)?

Better way to look at it than just sticking on a roster, agreed. By this criteria hell, I'm not sure any of them. I could see Melo flaming out and not getting a contract past year 3. Same with Waiters. Yes, making a roster is one thing, having an NBA career is another thing entirely.

 

[The General]

I wouldn't take that to the bank if I was you.

Southerland? Yikes.

Is CJ really a 4? I guess when Hop and JB compare him to Pace I think of him as our future 3.

Id prefer to bring Southerland off the bench. I think he's more comfortable. Remember when we started him last year?

Care to expound on this?

 

[RF2044]

I wouldn't take that to the bank if I was you.

I would. Fair will be a starting forward next season--mark it down. Southerland may also start at forward, but only if Fab departs and Coleman isn't ready to replace him--in which case we'd start one big [XMas? Keita?] alongside those two.

 

[The General]

I would. Fair will be a starting forward next season--mark it down. Southerland may also start at forward, but only if Fab departs and Coleman isn't ready to replace him--in which case we'd start one big [XMas? Keita?] alongside those two.

Yeah isn't it DC, Rak, Fair, Triche, Waiters next year? or Melo, Rak, Fair, Triche, Waiters? Feel free to sub MCW if Waiters leaves...

I just don't see Southerland over Fair. Do we really think his game will expand much beyond what it is from Jr to Sr year? He's a shooter. Fair does so much more.

 

[AZOrange]

I dont see how CJ is not the starter next year, he is the first forward off the bench.

 

[moqui]

I would. Fair will be a starting forward next season--mark it down. Southerland may also start at forward, but only if Fab departs and Coleman isn't ready to replace him--in which case we'd start one big [XMas? Keita?] alongside those two.

you have to think about spacing on the offensive end. for all the talk of CJ's improved mid range jumper, it really isn't there with any consistency. He is not an offensive threat outside of 8 feet. It is a given that two of Fab/Keita/Rak/DC2 will be starting. It doesn't make any sense to have another forward whose game is, at best, inside-out. You need JS in that spot in order to properly space the halfcourt offense.

CJ will have to make a quantum jump in his perimeter game for him to start. He will be the sixth man.

 

[AZOrange]

you have to think about spacing on the offensive end. for all the talk of CJ's improved mid range jumper, it really isn't there with any consistency. He is not an offensive threat outside of 8 feet. It is a given that two of Fab/Keita/Rak/DC2 will be starting. It doesn't make any sense to have another forward whose game is, at best, inside-out. You need JS in that spot in order to properly space the halfcourt offense.

CJ will have to make a quantum jump in his perimeter game for him to start. He will be the sixth man.

honestly i could see Keita being the real odd man out in this equation. If Fab goes pro, i could really see it be Rak/DC/CJ or even DC, CJ, South

 

[moqui]

honestly i could see Keita being the real odd man out in this equation. If Fab goes pro, i could really see it be Rak/DC/CJ or even DC, CJ, South

Again, I can't see Rak/DC/CJ because the spacing problems. I suppose it is possible that both CJ and JS start together with one of the bigs, but I think that is both unlikely and even if it did occur, then I would still be correct because CJ would not be the starting 3 in that contingency.

The odds that CJ starts at the 3 next year are slim, IMO.