HRE Otto IV
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Absolutely. My thread starter was more about the end game and how JW will handle a putrid start to 2021 (a 0-2 with a loss to Rutgers). That will heat the water around here to levels that will be tough to escape. I am just VERY curious how JW is going to handle this situation. Everything that was considered an excuse seems to have been mitigated by JW and the school.
My bigger existential issue is the ACC and how we are situated in it. The conf did us zero favors with the divisional alignment. We're fishing in a pond that is truly deep for our abilities IMO. Not saying we can't compete but to play both FSU and Clemson yearly (talking historically) is a tough ask. We sometimes get seduced by our bowl performances against the southern heavy weights but I tend to think we punch above our weight against schools unhappy about the bowls they are in when they face us.
Anyway, this season is a breakfast ball, in golf parlance. No one with a brain can hold this against Dino. I'm just worried about next year when you can start to question the coaching at this level in this conference. He came in with a philosophy that may not work in the ACC with our personnel. If he can't revise on the fly, he's going to be a former HC at some point in 2021
Our schedule is fine. Currently there is a 6 year ACC cycle where we will play every Coastal team once and ND twice. SO using that as a template:
Yearly FCS and 2 yearly G5s I will be conservative here and say we should go 16-2 over that 6 year cycle vs these teams.
Yearly Clemson plus 2 games vs ND while think one win is possible over a 6 year span, I will be conservative and say 0-8. So now we are 16-10.
Yearly vs FSU we should be able to get 2 wins over the next 6 years. They are easily a few years away from being a Top 25 team again and further from being a Top 10 team. That is assuming they have the right guy as HC. So I think 2-4 is realistic and gets us to 18-14 overall.
Then we have 6 games (3 home and 3 away) yearly vs the rest of the ACC. Is it really asking too much to go .500 against Louisville, NC State, Wake, BC, Pitt, Coastal teams? But let's be conservative. At home we should easily be able to achieve 2-1 each year (12-6 over 6) so that is 30-20 overall. For the road games let's say we win one game 2/3 of the time. Which is 4-14 over 6 years getting our total to 34-34.
That leaves 4 games vs an OOC P5. If we schedule light here we should be able to go .500 but even being conservative we should go 1-3. Bringing our final 6 year total to 35-37. That will get us to a Bowl 2/3 of the time.
So being conservative a HC over the 6 year cycle should be pretty close to .500 here even with Clemson every year. That is how Wake, BC, and to a lessor extent NC State have been able to make Bowls consistently. Also this is assuming that divisions do not go away which would certainly help us.