Uncharted waters means we have not dealt with this large of a buyout before...ever. We will find out whether Syracuse has the means and fortitude to pull the trigger on a high end buyout for a private entity. If you operate on the premise that his $15m buyout in 21 drops to $10m in 22 and you add in $5m to $6m for new HC and staff that is not a small outlay. This is new territory for them.
And that's why I keep saying, he's going to be here 2 more years, regardless of what he does.
This is not a school that likes to pay sports coaches millions of dollars to go away.
This is a frugal private school. Dino will be here, short of some sort of scandal, for the next 2 years almost regardless of how the team does.
Only if the team looks on pace for another 1 or 2 win season in 2021 does he find himself possibly being fired next season, especially after everything that just happened (and likely will continue to impact the spring football period).
Let's be honest, the virus is going to keep rising until probably February, at a minimum, based on current rates and all the holiday travel. We honestly might lose spring football completely. Hopefully a national containment strategy for the virus will be put in place before March, but there won't be widespread access to vaccines probably until summer.
So, next year could be messed up, too.
By 2022, you can reasonably "demand" a bowl result, because there's only 1 year left on his agreement to be bought out. That's what likely, in my opinion.
Short of a train wreck again next year, or some sort of scandal affecting player welfare, then Dino is our man for at least the next 2 years. Whether he is still here beyond that is up to him (i.e. results). But I don't see him getting fired next year, almost regardless of the results.
That's just not who this program is.