important to remember where shafer left us on defense

[orange_in_VA]

Shafer didn’t deserve more time and it wasn’t because of his record. He was an unhinged moron, especially his last season. It was clear he had no real plan either, except for recruiting kids who didn’t belong in the ACC in most cases. Shafer was also in the program for 4 years before becoming HC so he had his players to play his scheme on D already in place when he was hired.

The guy is a millionaire who is well respected in his profession and has coached some of the best defenses in school history, but he's an "unhinged moron"?

 

[TheCusian]

Marrone never recruited a replacement for Nassib and filled a lot of holes with JUCO players. Shafer wasn't left with much. Still, managed to win a bowl game with Terrel Hunt and won road games against ACC teams with AJ Long and Zach Mahoney starting at QB

No plural on there... AJ Long won at Wake. Mahoney won at home vs BC.

 

[orange_in_VA]

I don't think it's supposed to be a we want Shafer back or Dino to go kind of thing. What Orange_in_VA and I are trying to do is open up some eyes. People are still blinded by the Clemson win, but we got freaking rocked at home against BC. Wake scored 35 points on us in a half. This defense is bad. People are making excuses. Do I see flashes? Sure, so did Grob apparently. We played some close games, lucky us. At the end of the day, we got beat by MTSU and both of our supposed 'peer' teams. I'm laughing at the guys saying yup, Addazio got it rolling after 6 years! These are the same guys at the beginning of the year who thought BC would be hiring right now and had that game penciled as a sure win.

THIS!!! +1000000

 

[Scooch]

Here's the thing that I get and other defensive meatheads get. If you keep the score low and close when you are outmanned then you give yourself the luck factor. Shafer kept games close so if you get a bounce your way, i.e. a pick 6(his aggressive defense was designed to confuse QBs and force mistakes), a fumble, a PR for a TD, etc then you might just have a chance. Babers philosophy doesn't offer this, we just get our doors blown off by competent QBs.

Shafer kept games close?

This took 3 minutes to calculate...

In the Shafer era we had 10 games (out of 37) that were decided by 9 points or less. We won 5 of those.

In the Babers era we have had 9 games (out of 24) that were decided by 9 points or less. We've won 4 of those.

Shafer kept 27% of his games close, while Babers has kept 38% of his games close.

So Baber's approach has literally kept significantly more games close than Shafer's.

And FWIW, the average loss under Shafer was by 18.9 points. Under Babers it has been 21.2 points. Shafer had 3 losses by more than 30 points, and Babers has had 4.

So yeah, Babers approach leads to closer games and roughly 0.33 more super-blowout losses per year than Shafer.

Damning.

 

[orange_in_VA]

No plural on there... AJ Long won at Wake. Mahoney won at home vs BC.

Fair enough. Thought Mahoney won at BC

 

[TheCusian]

I don't think it's supposed to be a we want Shafer back or Dino to go kind of thing. What Orange_in_VA and I are trying to do is open up some eyes. People are still blinded by the Clemson win, but we got freaking rocked at home against BC. Wake scored 35 points on us in a half. This defense is bad. People are making excuses. Do I see flashes? Sure, so did Grob apparently. We played some close games, lucky us. At the end of the day, we got beat by MTSU and both of our supposed 'peer' teams. I'm laughing at the guys saying yup, Addazio got it rolling after 6 years! These are the same guys at the beginning of the year who thought BC would be hiring right now and had that game penciled as a sure win.

This defense is no worse than any other when you take into account the SoS. And the offense is better.

Wake is a good team. So is BC.

 

[Alsacs]

The guy is a millionaire who is well respected in his profession and has coached some of the best defenses in school history, but he's an "unhinged moron"?

I think your one of the better posters but on this subject we disagree 100%.
That ISIS postgame PC.
The 3-0 CMU PC.
The post Pitt 2015 PC.
The guy was not a good leader and showed it.
I am sure he is a nice man but no P5 school was going to hire him as a HC in 2014.
Hell he wasn’t even mentioned for any HC job when we hired him.

I don’t think he is this great coach either. He did well as DC when we were in the Big East and Marrone was an excellent game planner.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

If the argument has morphed into who fielded the better defenses between Shafer and Babers so far there really isn't a good argument for the latter. You can argue reasons why but based on performance numbers it's not close save Shafers last season which was about as bad as Babers first two. In sum, the defense has been brutal. If the trend continues we have to score 40+ to win games in the ACC.

 

[Trueblue25]

We’re a struggling team thats clearly rebuilding under Dino. Dino’s regathering the program and rebuilding from the ground up.


We were an absolutely light weight laughing stock under HCSS. I don’t hate him. I appreciated the effort he tried to put forth. However, his antics, hiring, recruiting and decision making made our program into a joke agin.

 

[Alsacs]

Babers can be criticized without defending the pathetic era of Shafer.

Babers>>>>>>>> Shafer.
Shafer was a terrible decision.
Babers has atleast hope.

 

[TheCusian]

If the argument has morphed into who fielded the better defenses between Shafer and Babers so far there really isn't a good argument for the latter. You can argue reasons why but based on performance numbers it's not close save Shafers last season which was about as bad as Babers first two. In sum, the defense has been brutal. If the trend continues we have to score 40+ to win games in the ACC.

Do you look at SoS? *Who* you play matters. The ACC Atlantic has morphed into the best division in CFB. When we were in the Big East it was fringe "P6"

 

[NKR1978]

SoS included above (just so it's clear)

And since O numbers matter too:

2008 - 18.1 (108 of 120) Robinson vs #34 ranked schedule
2009 - 21.2(98 of 120) Marrone vs #36 ranked schedule
2010 - 22.2(93 of 120) Marrone vs #73 ranked schedule
2011 - 24.2(83 of 120) Marrone vs #55 ranked schedule
2012 - 30.0(55 of 124) Marrone vs #45 ranked schedule
2013 - 22.7(99 of 125) Shafer vs #57 ranked schedule
2014 - 17.1(121 of 128) Shafer vs #41 ranked schedule
2015 - 27.3(77 of 128) Shafer vs #39 ranked schedule
2016 - 25.7(90 of 128) Babers vs #8 ranked schedule
2017 - 27.4(76 of 128) Babers #5 ranked schedule

Those SOS numbers the last two years are insane. Amazing how much we're scoring.

 

[orange_in_VA]

I think your one of the better posters but on this subject we disagree 100%.
That ISIS postgame PC.
The 3-0 CMU PC.
The post Pitt 2015 PC.
The guy was not a good leader and showed it.
I am sure he is a nice man but no P5 school was going to hire him as a HC in 2014.
Hell he wasn’t even mentioned for any HC job when we hired him.

I don’t think he is this great coach either. He did well as DC when we were in the Big East and Marrone was an excellent game planner.

I'm not saying Shafer is some amazing coach. I believe he was an above average defensive coach and more passionate than he should have been at some moments. I still believe he should have been given more time and the main reason I defend him at all now is because of the people giving Babers all the same excuses that weren't good enough for Shafer.

Again, I am very happy we got Babers and hope he retires here. He's the best we're gonna get here and I hope he turns it around. His staffs recruiting is more exciting to me than anything else and gives me hope moving forward. With that being said, there are many things to be critical of so far. People have put him in a god-like status around here like he's above being judged. That's nonsense.

 

[cuse10]

Why is MTSU being brought up as if they are a bad program? Prior to getting knocked out for most of the season, Brent Stockstill was one of the top rated QBs for the upcoming NFL Draft with a couple of pros at the receiver position. They went 8-5 last season. 6-6 this year with a backup QB for half the year.

 

[Trueblue25]

I don't think it's supposed to be a we want Shafer back or Dino to go kind of thing. What Orange_in_VA and I are trying to do is open up some eyes. People are still blinded by the Clemson win, but we got freaking rocked at home against BC. Wake scored 35 points on us in a half. This defense is bad. People are making excuses. Do I see flashes? Sure, so did Grob apparently. We played some close games, lucky us. At the end of the day, we got beat by MTSU and both of our supposed 'peer' teams. I'm laughing at the guys saying yup, Addazio got it rolling after 6 years! These are the same guys at the beginning of the year who thought BC would be hiring right now and had that game penciled as a sure win.

After 100 beers and many a chuckle I removed the orange sunglasses following the clemson game and believe me the losses since were sobering.

However, Dino has other positives to look at when we have discouraging losses. Look at his incoming recruiting classes. Look at the players he was able to redshirt because his system allowed us to take non ACC talent and make it serviceable for the rebuild to start. Or, just look at him in interviews and how he represents our program.

These are encouraging things to fall back on for reassurance that I just never had with HCSS. Bless the guy and his fire but he wasn’t fit for the job and we suffered because of it. Was just a trainwreck.

 

[Pyle]

Babers can be criticized without defending the pathetic era of Shafer.

Babers>>>>>>>> Shafer.
Shafer was a terrible decision.
Babers has atleast hope.

I think your first line says it all. I bring up Shafer not because I think he's better necessarily, it wasn't a good 3 years, but because I don't see Dino doing that much better of a job...yet. It looks better when you play a few teams close and get a big win, but the MTSU loss was worse than any Shafer had(yeah GT was bad but they were a peer), our defense is historically bad, and the offense was stuck in cement without Dungey which is sort of a major concern heading into the off-season. Why can't anyone else move the ball? I won't compare Shafer and Dino anymore unless someone points at Shafer as the reason for all of Dino's problems in which case I'll be happy to throw up some stats.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

does it adjust for scores that have nothing to do with the defense or bad field position?

Do you look at SoS? *Who* you play matters. The ACC Atlantic has morphed into the best division in CFB. When we were in the Big East it was fringe "P6"

Yes. That's why I believe in adjusted points per possession as a good measure. Certainly it correlates most closely to W/L % in P5 football.

No statistic is perfect but it's the closest relative measure ive found and I've been looking at the advanced stats for quite awhile now.

You should know by now I don't nitpick advanced stats to choose a favorite I just like looking at the numbers to see trends and correlation to wins and losses. The numbers spwak for themselves.

The assessment of the full season numbers for this year say we need to get much better consistently on both sides of the ball by next year or we'll have another 4 win season. That's what I see.

Edit: I don' believe there is a field position adjustment. To my recollection, I have never seen any statistic that adjusts for field position.

 

[OttoMets]

The guy is a millionaire who is well respected in his profession and has coached some of the best defenses in school history, but he's an "unhinged moron"?

 

[Alsacs]

I'm not saying Shafer is some amazing coach. I believe he was an above average defensive coach and more passionate than he should have been at some moments. I still believe he should have been given more time and the main reason I defend him at all now is because of the people giving Babers all the same excuses that weren't good enough for Shafer.

Again, I am very happy we got Babers and hope he retires here. He's the best we're gonna get here and I hope he turns it around. His staffs recruiting is more exciting to me than anything else and gives me hope moving forward. With that being said, there are many things to be critical of so far. People have put him in a god-like status around here like he's above being judged. That's nonsense.

Shafer didn’t deserve the job based on his resume.He was a cheap continuation hire. Thus he didn’t deserve patience. Gross didn’t do a national search.
Babers was hired for a rebuild.

Dino has made mistakes this year but the guy has won more recruiting battles than Shafer did against peer schools and has a plan.

 

[Scooch]

I'm not saying Shafer is some amazing coach. I believe he was an above average defensive coach and more passionate than he should have been at some moments. I still believe he should have been given more time and the main reason I defend him at all now is because of the people giving Babers all the same excuses that weren't good enough for Shafer.

Again, I am very happy we got Babers and hope he retires here. He's the best we're gonna get here and I hope he turns it around. His staffs recruiting is more exciting to me than anything else and gives me hope moving forward. With that being said, there are many things to be critical of so far. People have put him in a god-like status around here like he's above being judged. That's nonsense.

The issue about the excuses is that Shafer and Babers were hired for different reasons and their tenure was/is being evaluated under different circumstances. Bayside keeps saying it but Shafer was expected to be a continuity hire. He was supposed to build on the four years of foundation that he and Marrone constructed. Unfortunately he regressed. I gave Shafer a lot of credit for going 7-6 in his first season, particularly because we lost Nassib/Lemon/Sales/Pugh from the '12 team. But things got worse from there and recruiting sure didn't seem to improve. Babers took over in a rebuild mode. I will agree that in about 18 months Babers sheds the rebuild excuses and needs to stand entirely on his own.

 

[Pyle]

After 100 beers and many a chuckle I removed the orange sunglasses following the clemson game and believe me the losses since were sobering.

However, Dino has other positives to look at when we have discouraging losses. Look at his incoming recruiting classes. Look at the players he was able to redshirt because his system allowed us to take non ACC talent and make it serviceable for the rebuild to start. Or, just look at him in interviews and how he represents our program.

These are encouraging things to fall back on for reassurance that I just never had with HCSS. Bless the guy and his fire but he wasn’t fit for the job and we suffered because of it. Was just a trainwreck.

I won't argue recruiting. I don't follow it, I don't like to. Too many Baskins, Preasters, etc. I don't pay much attention to guys who aren't on the two-deep yet. I hear the hype with Devito. Just going to say I remember the hype with Arob, Zach Allen, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. I care when it's game time.

 

[orange_in_VA]

Shafer didn’t deserve the job based on his resume.He was a cheap continuation hire. Thus he didn’t deserve patience. Gross didn’t do a national search.
Babers was hired for a rebuild.

Dino has made mistakes this year but the guy has won more recruiting battles than Shafer did against peer schools and has a plan.

I don't disagree with any of this. I didn't bring up Shafer because I'm anti-Babers.

 

[dasher]

Shafer is an excellent D.c. and sadly he proved it against us this year. Beating Dino's offense with a crap MTSU team. That should never have happened.

 

[Alsacs]

Note the score at the time of this was Clemson 35 Syracuse 7 in the 2ND QUARTER it is impossible to claim someone is running the score up in the 2nd quarter.
Shafer was embrassing.

 

[orange_in_VA]

The issue about the excuses is that Shafer and Babers were hired for different reasons and their tenure was/is being evaluated under different circumstances. Bayside keeps saying it but Shafer was expected to be a continuity hire. He was supposed to build on the four years of foundation that he and Marrone constructed. Unfortunately he regressed. I gave Shafer a lot of credit for going 7-6 in his first season, particularly because we lost Nassib/Lemon/Sales/Pugh from the '12 team. But things got worse from there and recruiting sure didn't seem to improve. Babers took over in a rebuild mode. I will agree that in about 18 months Babers sheds the rebuild excuses and needs to stand entirely on his own.

Best response to my point so far. Thank you