I've seen it mentioned by some how expensive a new coach is

[leftytg]

Rutgers has to be considered unsettled at the AD position given how gaffe prone Herrman has been. Any prospective football coach worth his salt would factor that as a big negative. The prospect of your boss, the one who hired you, being out in a year or two, buts a coach in a vulnerable and uncomfortable position.

 

[MSOrange]

Rutgers has to be considered unsettled at the AD position given how gaffe prone Herrman has been. Any prospective football coach worth his salt would factor that as a big negative. The prospect of your boss, the one who hired you, being out in a year or two, buts a coach in a vulnerable and uncomfortable position.

And even if she's not out, the prospect of working for her is just as terrifying.

 

[CaliCuse]

Not only nice but should be a requirement. We've been down that road before...often.

I and its a huge "IF" Coyle decides to replace Shafer it most likely be a West coast candidate because Coyle obviously will have knowledge and contacts west of the Mississippi. If that person has recruiting mojo here. GREAT. Shafer won't go before the completion of next season. Its kind of a certainty. This does not include assistant coaches presently on staff. Louisville will be a game that will tell us much about the short future. My gut says we have a good game Saturday I see a come back game from Dungy and more Strickland touches. If the OL does its job moderately well the Orange may be able to get up some meaningful points on the board.

 

[GoSU96]

Since if we let Shafer go we'd need to pay both his contract and the new coach's contract, and the new contract might be pretty high in order to get somebody good. So that adds up as money going out.

On the other side of things... unless there's a big time rally we're walking in to next season coming off of a second straight losing season. We have some young guys that we can market around, but it's looking pretty likely that ticket sales are going to be in the tank. That represents potential dollars that are not coming in. That might turn out to be a big part of the equation. How much does Coyle think the expense of an exciting new coach can be offset by a potential uptick in gate, vs not spending that money and likely facing low gate next season?

I think we can all agree that the best case scenario is that the staff turns it around, and we clobber a decent team in a bowl so we ride in to next season with some steam and hopefully better ticket sales. Short of that though... I don't know, this program is in a rough spot and it's not clear what Coyle values. My guess is he's a big picture guy though, and these sorts of things are a big part of his calculus.

Ticket sales? Not a driver any more.

Here is what SU has reported for football since 2005. It once made a difference, now SU is just a partner in a content provider.

Year Total Revenues ..... Total Expenses .... .....Net
2005 $ 19,054,865.00 ... $ 14,554,800.00... $ 4,500,065.00
2006 $ 14,866,061.00 ... $ 15,023,146.00 ....$ (157,085.00)
2007 $ 15,001,438.00... $ 14,988,358.00 ..... $ 13,080.00
2008 $ 17,086,213.00 ...$ 17,920,590.00.... $ (834,377.00)
2009 $ 19,152,691.00 ...$ 15,300,740.00.... $ 3,851,951.00
2010 $ 18,783,752.00... $ 16,420,281.00 .... $ 2,363,471.00
2011 $ 28,688,904.00.... $ 21,731,165.00..... $ 6,957,739.00
2012 $ 33,213,622.00 ... $ 22,663,307.00.... $ 10,550,315.00
2013 $ 38,532,172.00 .... $ 23,622,247.00 ....$ 14,909,925.00

 

[elimunelson]

Ticket sales? Not a driver any more.

Here is what SU has reported for football since 2005. It once made a difference, now SU is just a partner in a content provider.

Year Total Revenues ... Total Expenses ... ...Net
2005 $ 19,054,865.00 ... $ 14,554,800.00... $ 4,500,065.00
2006 $ 14,866,061.00 ... $ 15,023,146.00 ...$ (157,085.00)
2007 $ 15,001,438.00... $ 14,988,358.00 ... $ 13,080.00
2008 $ 17,086,213.00 ...$ 17,920,590.00... $ (834,377.00)
2009 $ 19,152,691.00 ...$ 15,300,740.00... $ 3,851,951.00
2010 $ 18,783,752.00... $ 16,420,281.00 ... $ 2,363,471.00
2011 $ 28,688,904.00... $ 21,731,165.00... $ 6,957,739.00
2012 $ 33,213,622.00 ... $ 22,663,307.00... $ 10,550,315.00
2013 $ 38,532,172.00 ... $ 23,622,. . . .00 ...$ 14,909,925.00

School has plenty of money. The money argument is gone. It's the reason we're in the ACC.

We got a seat at the table. It's now incumbent to find the right guy, if it's not Shafer, to get us back to where we belong

 

[Crusty]

Ticket sales? Not a driver any more.

Here is what SU has reported for football since 2005. It once made a difference, now SU is just a partner in a content provider.

Year Total Revenues ... Total Expenses ... ...Net
2005 $ 19,054,865.00 ... $ 14,554,800.00... $ 4,500,065.00
2006 $ 14,866,061.00 ... $ 15,023,146.00 ...$ (157,085.00)
2007 $ 15,001,438.00... $ 14,988,358.00 ... $ 13,080.00
2008 $ 17,086,213.00 ...$ 17,920,590.00... $ (834,377.00)
2009 $ 19,152,691.00 ...$ 15,300,740.00... $ 3,851,951.00
2010 $ 18,783,752.00... $ 16,420,281.00 ... $ 2,363,471.00
2011 $ 28,688,904.00... $ 21,731,165.00... $ 6,957,739.00
2012 $ 33,213,622.00 ... $ 22,663,307.00... $ 10,550,315.00
2013 $ 38,532,172.00 ... $ 23,622,. . . .00 ...$ 14,909,925.00

Certainly TV revenues are the biggest driver, but not the only driver. Other than making it to a good bowl, the only way to increase marginal revenue is through ticket sales. These are important revenues since so much goes to the bottom line.

 

[GoSU96]

Certainly TV revenues are the biggest driver, but not the only driver. Other than making it to a good bowl, the only way to increase marginal revenue is through ticket sales. These are important revenues since so much goes to the bottom line.

It's a lagging metric and shouldn't be a reason to make hiring and firing decision.

They are up $20 million in revenues from 2010 to 2013 according to that reporting. Shouldn't be a big deal.

 

[Crusty]

It's a lagging metric and shouldn't be a reason to make hiring and firing decision.

They are up $20 million in revenues from 2010 to 2013 according to that reporting. Shouldn't be a big deal.

Sorry, but that makes little sense to me. The increase in ACC revenues has nothing to do with the coaches while attendance does.

 

[GoSU96]

Sorry, but that makes little sense to me. The increase in ACC revenues has nothing to do with the coaches while attendance does.

The point is they more than doubled gross revenue since 2010

There isn't an immediate need to grow revenue therefore it shouldnt be a consideration in make a decision to change

 

[NKR1978]

All depends on who's available this year vs next year.

I'd rather get my 1st choice in 2016 than my 5th or 6th choice next month.

Big jobs open up all the time. We don't even know what surprise P5 openings there will be. No one expected Oregon State and Wisconsin to open up last year.

And as has been said, if Shafer is let go, we are likely competing against Maryland and Illinois with Rutgers and Virginia as possibilities. I think Rutgers and Maryland are tough sells because of who they're competing with in their division.

We might be a tough sell as well because FSU and Clemson aren't going anywhere for at least 5 years. But those two aren't as formidable as Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and a possibily resurgent Penn State.

 

[Crusty]

The point is they more than doubled gross revenue since 2010

There isn't an immediate need to grow revenue therefore it shouldnt be a consideration in make a decision to change

Wow, just wow. Nobody in their right mind will sit by and watch attendance drop with no end in sight, especially a new AD. The university is under heavy financial pressure, which it will be for the next couple of decades. Every revenue stream is critical. Coyle was not hired to sit on his hands.

 

[OrangeSky]

Syverud surprised us all by hiring Coyle, an apparent home run (or touchdown?).

That hire says to me we're going to get serious about football.
In similar fashion, I think it's very possible that Coyle, with Syverud behind him, will be able to get a pretty big name here and surprise us all if and when Shafer leaves.

Just a "feeling" with no good objective data to back it up.

 

[kcsu]

Good post, although I think a 6k increase in attendance is a lot. That's what, 13% of the Dome's capacity.

I think that is a minimum more like 2m as the average fan is going to spend much more than 10 a game the point is simple simple win fill the stadium and it more than pays for the coaching staff

 

[Chip]

If we fire Shafer this year, rush the hire, and get Grob 2.0, then keeping Shafer one more year isn't such a bad move.

I don't think Shafer will get fired at halftime of a bowl game, so we should have a little more time.

I'd guess if you had an honest moment with Coyle right now, he'd rattle off about 10 names before you stop him and say ok, I get it.

 

[CaliCuse]

Ticket sales? Not a driver any more.

Here is what SU has reported for football since 2005. It once made a difference, now SU is just a partner in a content provider.

Year Total Revenues ... Total Expenses ... ...Net
2005 $ 19,054,865.00 ... $ 14,554,800.00... $ 4,500,065.00
2006 $ 14,866,061.00 ... $ 15,023,146.00 ...$ (157,085.00)
2007 $ 15,001,438.00... $ 14,988,358.00 ... $ 13,080.00
2008 $ 17,086,213.00 ...$ 17,920,590.00... $ (834,377.00)
2009 $ 19,152,691.00 ...$ 15,300,740.00... $ 3,851,951.00
2010 $ 18,783,752.00... $ 16,420,281.00 ... $ 2,363,471.00
2011 $ 28,688,904.00... $ 21,731,165.00... $ 6,957,739.00
2012 $ 33,213,622.00 ... $ 22,663,307.00... $ 10,550,315.00
2013 $ 38,532,172.00 ... $ 23,622,. . . .00 ...$ 14,909,925.00

Well they can afford to hire who they need for success should they choose to do so.Despite the slim attendance success,television revenue is clearly profitable. It far more than merely "a content provider". Surprisingly many are aware of the university and its history here in California. It ain't just basketball either.

 

[RoatanCuse]

Coyle had a great gig at Boise State, he could have been there a very long time. It's also a great town and great college atmosphere.

He didn't take a position here thinking he would be on a shoe string budget for the 1 sport that matters for the rest of the country. The writing is on the wall as far as the football program. Money is being spent, upgrades are happening, progress is being made. Whoever is coaching here will get a real salary or a real salary for the staff. Not ridiculous money but enough to get a quality hire. Coyle is a smart guy.

Seeing the big picture. Great post.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Seeing the big picture. Great post.

Yeah, he knew what the plan was moving forward when he took the job. Just need to see what that plan is. Something needs to change just a question of when and how patient they feel they can be. The next 4 games will determine the decision. 4 wins is where I can see it being difficult but it will also depend on who Coyle thinks he can hire. It will play itself out

 

[kcsu]

In looking around the country i have come to the conclusion that the amount of money paid to the head coach doesnt seem to make that much of a difference in the record. There are a ton of highly paid coaches and staffs that are getting blown out and fired. There are also many lower level schools with moderate budgets and resources who are doing well. For me i think that you need to focus on hiring a very strong and balanced staff. Strong OL and DL coaching seems to be the foundation of success. Start with the core and move out from there. If we retain HCSS beyond next year i hope that he upgrades the OL coaching. I doubt he would do this as it would force him to fire a friend.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

In looking around the country i have come to the conclusion that the amount of money paid to the head coach doesnt seem to make that much of a difference in the record. There are a ton of highly paid coaches and staffs that are getting blown out and fired. There are also many lower level schools with moderate budgets and resources who are doing well. For me i think that you need to focus on hiring a very strong and balanced staff. Strong OL and DL coaching seems to be the foundation of success. Start with the core and move out from there. If we retain HCSS beyond next year i hope that he upgrades the OL coaching. I doubt he would do this as it would force him to fire a friend.

I think he has more problems that just his OL coach

 

[kcsu]

What other position coaches do you think are the weakest

 

[IthacaBarrel]

What other position coaches do you think are the weakest

Everybody but Daoust can go if you ask me, not talking recruiting but coaching here. Look at where Marrone's position coaches are now, you think anyone on this staff will be there in 3 years? Doubt it

 

[JoeSU]

Football coaches are a known commodity? Not so much. There have been a large number of coaches in recent years that were highly successful at one school and shat the bed at their next job. Nothing is a given when it comes to hitting a coach.

Totally agree. On paper GRob looked like a great hire - NFL experience, DC at a major program. The college coaching landscape is littered with coaches who cashed-in their success at one stop to move up the food chain, only to fail miserably at their next gig (guys like Turner Gill). That's why I'm leery of coaches like Matt Campbell.

 

[kcsu]

I like Campbell and think that he is worth the risk. He has OL and OC experiance. Seems to be more in the Doug mode than a buddy type of coach and has been sited as being a very strong recruiter. Still to your point it is a crap shoot.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Totally agree. On paper GRob looked like a great hire - NFL experience, DC at a major program. The college coaching landscape is littered with coaches who cashed-in their success at one stop to move up the food chain, only to fail miserably at their next gig (guys like Turner Gill). That's why I'm leery of coaches like Matt Campbell.

I am leery of coordinators with no HC experience, as KCsu said it's a crap shoot eitherway

 

[GoSU96]

Totally agree. On paper GRob looked like a great hire - NFL experience, DC at a major program. The college coaching landscape is littered with coaches who cashed-in their success at one stop to move up the food chain, only to fail miserably at their next gig (guys like Turner Gill). That's why I'm leery of coaches like Matt Campbell.

Robinson was a bad hire on paper. He'd been fired his two prior NFL jobs. The one thing consistent about his career is how bad his defenses are.