Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

[IthacaMatt]

That was a hell of a highlight tape.

I've thought that Mintz might not be athletic enough for the next level. He might be a great college player, but not NBA big enough for his speed, able to finish well enough at the rim, etc. I worry that he might be the basketball equivalent of a AAAA player: too good for the minors, but not a regular on a big league roster. The biggest thing is that he is more crafty than explosive. I wonder if his crafty moves and fakes will be enough against the best athletes in the world.

This particular scout who put together the video seems to disagree. A couple of footwork issues with ball handling and a tweek in his shooting might be enough to get Mintz over the bar.

Mintz needs to prove he can hit open 3s as a catch and shoot player and hit open 3s when the defender goes under the pick on the PNR. This is such an obvious point to all of us who've seen him play 30+ games. These are such minor adjustments it seems likely he can be a much better player next year.

In his last 7 games last year, Mintz attempted 2.7 3s per game at an insane 57.9% clip. The rest of the season, in 25 previous games, he attempted 1.9 per game at a dismal 19.1% success rate. His real predictable success rate is in the middle, but asking him to make 40% when he's only taking 3s when defenders go under the PNR screen and on open catch and shoot doesn't seem implausible.

I really hope Mintz comes back for selfish reasons. Even if he's a AAAA baller, my favorite team plays in the minor leagues and I think he's a guy who can win us a title.

I also want him to be a first rounder so he can get the guaranteed contract he needs to prove his real talent level in the NBA.

Mintz is very very good.

His tape does look great. I think it comes down to how he does in the work-outs against other guards.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

If Judah goes, I wish him the best. And i would never @ him with my thoughts here. But I feel supremely confident for only the 2nd time in 3 decades watching players leave SU early that his NBA career will be far shorter and less impactful, and far less financially lucrative, if he goes now vs if he stays another year. But thats just one opinion and I don't bat 1.000 either

I have mixed feelings. The G League is set up so much different now. A lot of franchises have their G League teams in very close proximity so the players benefit first hand from the big league coaching and facilities.

That said, the competition is cut throat. There are many good players who never get a sniff and there are other players who come out of basically nowhere and end up sticking because they fill a certain niche.

I love reading the bios of some Johnny come lately to see the path they have taken. Playing in small towns and countries that can't be spelled, let alone pronounced.

Lottery picks will still get the biggest opportunities, especially if the brass that drafted them are still in command. So, Judah could definitely benefit staying a year, but if he's willing to grind it out and get a favorable contract, he can make his future work.

 

[kidorange]

His tape does look great. I think it comes down to how he does in the work-outs against other guards.

Agree. Feel like any speculation at this point is premature. I've taken all takes in this thread with a grain of salt.

 

[Niastri]

The BIG thing that all the “you need to focus on the 2nd NBA contract” folks keep missing is -

There is NO 2nd contract, if you never get the 1st one!!!!

For all the fans who act as if guys like Ennis, Mali, Lydon, etc are busts because they never got a 2nd NBA contract -

All those guys were multimillionaires in their early 20’s off of the 1 NBA contract they did get.

Compare that to guys who “came back to improve their draft stock” like:
KrisJo, CJ, Tyus, etc -

None of those guys got that 1st NBA contract, so they can’t possibly ever get a 2nd one.

It’s great that Jerami & O’shae managed to get their foot in the door and stick, and eventually get paid.
(Jerami in particular)

IF a player gets a shot at the Association, they’ve gotta take it.

This whole post is no longer as true as it used to be... If Judah Mintz stays at Syracuse all four years, he will also be a millionaire, perhaps better compensated than if he went and was a late first round pick.

If he comes back to Syracuse, this season, he will be handsomely paid in NIL dollars. Before the season starts.

If, next year, he immediately proves himself to be a national player of the year candidate by the end of Maui, the big money NIL will start rolling in. The shoe, apparel and other companies that lavish gigantic endorsement deals have stayed on the sidelines so far. I think that might change soon.

NIL changes the economics of going pro in ways not really apparent to the common person yet.

Remember the Shaquille O'Neal quote from 20 years ago "I don't work for the Orlando Magic, I work for Pepsi!"

If he can become a household name, NIL is really big, compared to the uncertainty of the draft process. Either way it's a bet on himself. But it's not Lydon or Richardson redux.

 

[Niastri]

His tape does look great. I think it comes down to how he does in the work-outs against other guards.

I'm more worried about NBA bigs. I wonder how many of Mintz's dipsy doodle layups and shot attempts that go in or draw fouls against college defenders are going to be blocked by NBA ready big men and forwards.

 

[Melancer46]

I'm more worried about NBA bigs. I wonder how many of Mintz's dipsy doodle layups and shot attempts that go in or draw fouls against college defenders are going to be blocked by NBA ready big men and forwards.

It’s fair but the spacing for most NBA teams is so good at this point that he’ll likely have the ability to get those shots off or kick out to a wide open shooter in the pros. Whether or not he can consistently get to the rim against NBA athletes is a larger concern but I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances in the NBA.

 

[jdubs30]

This whole post is no longer as true as it used to be... If Judah Mintz stays at Syracuse all four years, he will also be a millionaire, perhaps better compensated than if he went and was a late first round pick.

perhaps. But it’s all about the 2nd nba contract. Every year that Judah stays in college is 1 less year he’ll play in the NBA. If Judah leaves now, performs well, he will be eligible for a major pay day sooner than If he stayed just for NIL money.

NIL won’t effect lotto picks. It’s gonna be huge in the transfer portal.

It will effect fringe first round guys but I say more often than not those guys should go

 

[elimunelson]

Who’s the last test the nba and then ultimately came back?

I’m coming up with John Wallace but I have to be wrong.

I think the idea of being pro once one foot is in that world is hard to pull back. I’ll be shocked if he’s back.

 

[Melancer46]

Who’s the last test the nba and then ultimately came back?

I’m coming up with John Wallace but I have to be wrong.

I think the idea of being pro once one foot is in that world is hard to pull back. I’ll be shocked if he’s back.

Battle, right?

 

[Consigliere]

Again, that's a valid perspective. And for me, I think for 98% of people that is true. I truly believe, however, that if a player has a chance to become a legit NBA star who can make 10-fold with one more year of development there are a small few who, IF finances allow, would be best served to consider it.

I think it's hard to fathom that when it comes to choosing whether to stay or go, the players bat 1.000. I have isolated 2 players out of many dozens who have made this decision as specific cases I think should stay/have stayed. All the rest i think the evidence was overwhelming made the right call.

If Judah goes, I wish him the best. And i would never @ him with my thoughts here. But I feel supremely confident for only the 2nd time in 3 decades watching players leave SU early that his NBA career will be far shorter and less impactful, and far less financially lucrative, if he goes now vs if he stays another year. But thats just one opinion and I don't bat 1.000 either

The big variable that this discussion misses is the value of that first contract. A guaranteed three year deal as a lottery pick with the rookie wage scale sets you up for life. If coming back and have a good probability of reaching that level, in many cases it’s the right thing to do. No matter how confident you are in your long term ability, nothing is guaranteed so even if you are delaying the advancement to that market value second contract by a year, financially it makes sense.

I think it’s a stretch to say an extra year of college ball enhances your chance at a second contract. The club, or league, makes that decision years down the road.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Battle, right?

Yep

 

[jordville]

Who’s the last test the nba and then ultimately came back?

I’m coming up with John Wallace but I have to be wrong.

I think the idea of being pro once one foot is in that world is hard to pull back. I’ll be shocked if he’s back.

I believe Tyus Battle was the most recent to return to Cuse after testing their NBA draft status, etc.

Edit: Sorry, I see 2 others said Battle as well. I should've refreshed before finishing my response... got distracted with something else when I started to respond.

 

[BomberOrange]

Judah will get drafted into the nba. Whether it’s this year or next. What he needs to decide is whether he wants to be a mid/late 2nd rounder or take the chance that he has a dominant sophomore year that will hopefully translate into a first round pick. These days, NIL can make the second choice more palatable.

 

[atlanticuse]

I'm more worried about NBA bigs. I wonder how many of Mintz's dipsy doodle layups and shot attempts that go in or draw fouls against college defenders are going to be blocked by NBA ready big men and forwards.

As I’ve said dozens of times in this and other threads. Giannis is not who Judah played against in his lone year of college.

GT’s sloppy defending isn’t on par with Golden State.

 

[atlanticuse]

perhaps. But it’s all about the 2nd nba contract. Every year that Judah stays in college is 1 less year he’ll play in the NBA. If Judah leaves now, performs well, he will be eligible for a major pay day sooner than If he stayed just for NIL money.

Not true. You’re telling me our various departures would have “played one less year” if they left later?

Their ceiling is their ceiling.

Yes, I get the value of youth. And the NBA loves it. But right now - rose colored glasses or not - this is a stacked draft, he did NOT demonstrate his value (increase draft stock) during the Tournament, and ultimately he’ll be lucky for a two way.

Next year? First round.

 

[Cuse'91]

Pre-NIL, Judah would be gone, 100%. In this new reality, he absolutely should be returning to get better on the court, as well as being paid.
But, I mean, if we lose Judah because the Administration alienated Weitsman...

 

[Cuse181]

Pre-NIL, Judah would be gone, 100%. In this new reality, he absolutely should be returning to get better on the court, as well as being paid.
But, I mean, if we lose Judah because the Administration/Weitsman alienated each other...

FIFY

 

[orangefog]

Pre-NIL, Judah would be gone, 100%. In this new reality, he absolutely should be returning to get better on the court, as well as being paid.
But, I mean, if we lose Judah because the Administration alienated Weitsman...

Weitsman has an NIL deal with Judah. If Judah leaves, it will be because he feels comfortable where he will be drafted.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Not true. You’re telling me our various departures would have “played one less year” if they left later?

Their ceiling is their ceiling.

Yes, I get the value of youth. And the NBA loves it. But right now - rose colored glasses or not - this is a stacked draft, he did NOT demonstrate his value (increase draft stock) during the Tournament, and ultimately he’ll be lucky for a two way.

Next year? First round.

Isn’t this exactly the trouble though? If he is so sure to be a high first rounder or lottery guy next year then NBA teams would pick him this year to get a deal on him. If you can use, say, the last pick in the first round to get a lottery pick from next years draft, you’d do it every single time. Stash him on your G league team and see if it pans out. If it does, major win. If it doesn’t you only lost a (relatively small) bit of opportunity cost.

I just don’t see him coming back. I think he will do well in workouts, he has a great tape, and he started showing marked improvement in his weakest area at the end of the season. We’ve seen this before with players less talented that Judah. If he comes back it will be a major surprise to me.

 

[Giants1973]

Unfortunately I agree with this. It's his dream play in the League.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Despite NIL and the opportunities presented in college, any self-respecting athlete takes a shot at fulfilling his life-long dream. My neighbor's son played years in the minor leagues, mostly double-A and triple-A ball. Got a cup of coffee a coupla time in the Bigs, but said he wouldn't trade going on his quest for anything and literally teared up when he finally accepted he had to quit.
Everyone's circumstances are different of course, and maybe Judah wants to support his family, etc. But the bottomline is as long as that dream is alive, most people, in and out of sports, would wanna go for it. I don't expect him back. JMHO

 

[Cusefan0307]

Not Mintz related, but Clingan is back for the huskies. He was projected as a late first rounder in most mocks. That guy is going to destroy everyone in college basketball next year.

 

[Orangefan1]

Not Mintz related, but Clingan is back for the huskies. He was projected as a late first rounder in most mocks. That guy is going to destroy everyone in college basketball next year.

Another recruit we needed badly and didn’t get…

 

[Fly Rodder]

Another recruit we needed badly and didn’t get…

Clingan wasn’t leaving Connecticut to play college ball without a serious reason. Certainly not to get limited minutes, have to cover half the court on defense and be an afterthought on offense. And he got a ring. Kid made a good choice for himself.

 

[Orangezoo]

Another recruit we needed badly and didn’t get…

Was always going to be an nearly impossible mountain to climb given he was local