Lydon to hire agent and enter NBA draft

[SoBeCuse]

I just highlighted a couple of comments that I thought vastly overestimate the availability of tall players who shoot very well.

Regarding Michigan having tall 3-point shooters, Wagner and Wilson fit the bill this year. They weren't in their regular rotation last year. Michigan had none in 2015, 2014 or 2013. That's the final year I checked.

With respect to draft ratings for the 3 players, they aren't very different. On ESPN Wagner is #24, Wilson is #29 and Lydon is #34 .

On DraftExpress Lydon is #25, Wilson is #35 and Wagner is not ranked.

Wagner's discrepancy is strange, but it goes to show that the two sites get different intel and update their rankings at different time. It also shows the volatility once you get into the late 1st round.

Good post. I watch a bunch of Michigan ball for a few reasons not relevant here. Those two improved like crazy over the course of the season and weren't really on the radar last year. I think they are all pretty similar players with DJ Wilson being the most athletic of the bunch and the better inside player of all of them, imo. Wagner is probably better than Lydon also inside. Lydon burst onto the scene big time with the tournament run and such along with all the productive minutes he logged prior to. One could say he has regressed this season but there are factors in this discussed ad nauseum here. Personally I would take DJ Wilson if I had a choice. When Michigan beat up Louisville in the paint that sold me on those guys. Not sure if Lydon could compete in the paint with NBA frontline size like UL has. Wilson can make threes too. I just think Wilson is better equipped for the pro game. Lydon if he gets into the right system should be able to be a Novak-type I think.

 

[Cheriehoop]

I just highlighted a couple of comments that I thought vastly overestimate the availability of tall players who shoot very well.

Regarding Michigan having tall 3-point shooters, Wagner and Wilson fit the bill this year. They weren't in their regular rotation last year. Michigan had none in 2015, 2014 or 2013. That's the final year I checked.

With respect to draft ratings for the 3 players, they aren't very different. On ESPN Wagner is #24, Wilson is #29 and Lydon is #34 .

On DraftExpress Lydon is #25, Wilson is #35 and Wagner is not ranked.

Wagner's discrepancy is strange, but it goes to show that the two sites get different intel and update their rankings at different time. It also shows the volatility once you get into the late 1st round.

Michigan also had another forward 6'8" 215lb Duncan Robinson the past 2 years after transferring from Williams College. He shot .450 and .424 from 3 his 2 years there. Wow. I knew I saw multiple tall kids hitting from downtown for them. They seem almost interchangeable. Beilein must be looking back at his WVU glory days of Pittsnoggle and replicating his success creating match up problems.

Duncan Robinson College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

 

[SoBeCuse]

Robinson is good too. He plays more like a tall 2G actually. Really good off the bounce. Plays more like Stauskas/Dekker than like a true forward.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Honestly? One of the biggest difference makers for Lydon is how well he does relative to players older than him. Remember he was the leading rebounder on the under 18 team. Lydon did in his freshman year what Wilson did in his junior year all while playing 36+ mpg and mostly out of position. That all counts.

The younger you are relative to your peers (at the development stage), the more weight is given to playing well. A 23-yo senior dominating 19-yo freshman isn't considered as talented as a 19-yo playing that can just compete with 22 and 23 year olds. And that 23 year old is going to have to put up video game numbers to be taken seriously. Which is why a freshman with talent doesn't need to be all-conference first team to get past the sniff test for NBA development scouts. They don't need to see him put 20 and 10 against weak competition as senior.

 

[TinyManInside]

You think Pittsnoggle was as talented as Lydon? I don't. I also don't think every player max's out on their ability at 22. Seems to me, there was a lot of negative things said about Malcolm Brogden last year. He seems to be doing just fine. He went in the second round I believe.

you didn't mention anything about overall talent. You simply stated 6'9, 40 percent.

Tyler is a better shot blocker and rebounder than Pittsnoggle was, but as a pure scorer, absolutely Pittsnoggle was as talented. The kid scored almost 20 ppg as a SR and hit 91 threes. Lydon is certainly a much better athlete than Pittsnoggle was, which is why he's getting a look, but I was just responding to your post where you seemed to simplify the argument down to only size and 3 point shooting percentage.

And how does Malcolm Brogden have any relevance to this conversation? The entire conversation has revolved around stretch 4s and you're bringing up a 6'5" wing?

 

[dasher]

you didn't mention anything about overall talent. You simply stated 6'9, 40 percent.

Tyler is a better shot blocker and rebounder than Pittsnoggle was, but as a pure scorer, absolutely Pittsnoggle was as talented. The kid scored almost 20 ppg as a SR and hit 91 threes. Lydon is certainly a much better athlete than Pittsnoggle was, which is why he's getting a look, but I was just responding to your post where you seemed to simplify the argument down to only size and 3 point shooting percentage.

And how does Malcolm Brogden have any relevance to this conversation? The entire conversation has revolved around stretch 4s and you're bringing up a 6'5" wing?

I brought up Brogden as a response about guys having to go in the first round.

 

[TinyManInside]

I brought up Brogden as a response about guys having to go in the first round.

I mean, sure, some guys make it as second round draft picks, but you really have to defy the odds. Much better off getting drafted in the first round where a team has an investment to protect and WANTS you to succeed.

 

[20Plus]

Did he Already sign with an agent? Is there any chance he doesn't?

I keep reading post on the board that imply it's not a done deal!

I don't understand

 

[pearl31]

 

[br801]

View attachment 94459

Be still the hearts of the usual suspects.

 

[CuseTroop]

I can't handle this emotional roller coaster

 

[Trueblue25]

 

[Fly Rodder]

I'm sure he would prefer to already have a solid spot in the top-20, but good for SU if he comes back (though it does lead to one heckuva logjam in the front court with six PF/C types).

 

[Alsacs]

I don't think he's coming back. However this year's draft is a lot deeper than last year's. If he is slipping out of the first round it would make sense to come back if he would a first round pick next year.
His draft stock is unlikely to go up by coming back but he could be solidly in the first round probably next year. He may go anyway though.

 

[Trueblue25]

I don't think he's coming back. However this year's draft is a lot deeper than last year's. If he is slipping out of the first round it would make sense to come back if he would a first round pick next year.
His draft stock is unlikely to go up by coming back but he could be solidly in the first round probably next year. He may go anyway though.

The only way I could see him stock returning to the top 25 is with a deep tourney run following a dominant in-conference season.

 

[heresjohnny88]

I'm almost always in favor of a player leaving (if he's solidly in the first round), because it's no guarantee your stock gets higher after 1 more year...but I really never understood this Lydon decision. The only thing I can guess is that he felt discouraged by the fact his stock sort of flatlined after year 1, and wanted to "cut bait" while he was being projected as a late first. But honestly? Guy needs a ton of work. If he gets selected in the top 25 or so range he's hoping for, I'll be happy for him of course. But I think he's a mid-30s pick.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Guys. He gone.

 

[shandeezy7]

Syracuse's Tyler Lydon falls out of first round in Chad Ford's latest mock draft

 

[RF2044]

Guys. He gone.

Tend to agree -- honestly, no argument there -- but maybe the Chad Ford thing is a sign of the info he might be getting. Might be smarter for him to go through the process, have team workouts, etc. and change that opinion.

Would certainly hate to see him go and then drop to the second round.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Tend to agree -- honestly, no argument there -- but maybe the Chad Ford thing is a sign of the info he might be getting. Might be smarter for him to go through the process, have team workouts, etc. and change that opinion.

Would certainly hate to see him go and then drop to the second round.

My gut says he leaves even if he's a second round pick because it's not likely his stock improves as a junior and we're Syracuse and of course he leaves.

 

[Cusefan0307]

My gut says he leaves even if he's a second round pick because it's not likely his stock improves as a junior and we're Syracuse and of course he leaves.

Or he doesn't need to improve his stock much because it is a weaker draft next year...

(just playing devils advocate)

 

[Jasoncuse]

Honestly? One of the biggest difference makers for Lydon is how well he does relative to players older than him. Remember he was the leading rebounder on the under 18 team. Lydon did in his freshman year what Wilson did in his junior year all while playing 36+ mpg and mostly out of position. That all counts.

The younger you are relative to your peers (at the development stage), the more weight is given to playing well. A 23-yo senior dominating 19-yo freshman isn't considered as talented as a 19-yo playing that can just compete with 22 and 23 year olds. And that 23 year old is going to have to put up video game numbers to be taken seriously. Which is why a freshman with talent doesn't need to be all-conference first team to get past the sniff test for NBA development scouts. They don't need to see him put 20 and 10 against weak competition as senior.

Wilson is less than 2 months older than Lydon. Also, Wagner is a year younger.

Tyler is older for a kid that just completed his sophomore season. That's one of the main reasons I think he definitely is leaving.

 

[Alsacs]

I really don't get why the NBA is obsessed with the players age when they draft him. Not all draft picks have to be upside picks. Very few guys are going to be max contract guys in 3-4 years when their contracts expire because they take forever to develop.
Malcolm Brogdon is a perfect example of this. In the 1980s and 90s he would've been a first round pick in the draft because teams would want players that could contribute. Now every draft pick is an upside freshman or sophomore and teams just want to hit the lottery

Teams should want players that can be in their second rotation. Instead they are drafting kids to be their 11th and 12th players as rookies unless they are lottery picks.
The draft sucks nowadays as it's all mainly freshman prospects who aren't ready for 2-3 years.

 

[RF2044]

I really don't get why the NBA is obsessed with the players age when they draft him. Not all draft picks have to be upside picks. Very few guys are going to be max contract guys in 3-4 years when their contracts expire because they take forever to develop.
Malcolm Brogdon is a perfect example of this. In the 1980s and 90s he would've been a first round pick in the draft because teams would want players that could contribute. Now every draft pick is an upside freshman or sophomore and teams just want to hit the lottery

Teams should want players that can be in their second rotation. Instead they are drafting kids to be their 11th and 12th players as rookies unless they are lottery picks.
The draft sucks nowadays as it's all mainly freshman prospects who aren't ready for 2-3 years.

last year, somebody posted an interesting article doing statistical analysis around the age of NBA draftees, and how there was a much higher correlation to "stardom" [based upon some criteria they set about what that meant] and being younger when you're drafted.

So, age isn't the end all / be all by any means. You can definitely get solid contributors and even starters who are older players when they get drafted. But the likelihood that said older players ever achieve "stardom" is statistically much lower than it is for younger players. And please note, the study indicated that just taking younger players is no guarantee that they'd achieve "stardom" either, just that they had a higher chance.

Hence, why the NBA is obsessed with the age of the player when they draft them. It is just one of many data points they consider.

 

[Briancuse]

I don't think he's coming back. However this year's draft is a lot deeper than last year's. If he is slipping out of the first round it would make sense to come back if he would a first round pick next year.
His draft stock is unlikely to go up by coming back but he could be solidly in the first round probably next year. He may go anyway though.

More than likely, but its looking better than it did before.