My SU Basketball Preview

[SWC75]

Here is a preview of the SU Basketball season I'm sending to my relatives and friends who are basketball fans.

The Situation
The big news in the off-season is that Syracuse will be leaving the crumbling Big East for the Atlantic Coast Conference. Instead of competing against Connecticut, Georgetown and Villanova we will have new rivals such as Maryland, Duke and North Carolina, although it’s not yet clear what the divisional set-up will be. Also, we won’t be able to start play in the conference for 27 months if the Big East holds us to their rules of departure, as their Commissioner, John Marinatto has vowed. But the Big East is already trying to round up new schools to replace Syracuse and Pittsburgh, (and now West Virginia, who has announced they will be moving to the Big 12). SU and Pitt may be fifth wheels if Marinatto gets enough schools to bring the football conference to 12 without them. The 27 months would be up in December 2013 so it may be possible for Syracuse to compete in the expanded ACC by the 2013-14 basketball season since the conference games wouldn’t be played until after the new year, when the 27 months would be up. I have a feeling the ACC could further expand by then and Connecticut and Rutgers may be their next targets. They looked into Notre Dame but the Irish wanted a one-sided deal whereas the ACC Commissioner John Swofford wants an even deal for every school. I’d really rather have West Virginia than Rutgers but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

Jim Boeheim has been hinting that he would be retiring in the near future. Assistant coach Mike Hopkins has already been designated the heir apparent. Speculation has been that he might retire after the 2012 Olympics where he will again be assisting Mike Krzyzewski in coaching the “Dream Team”. But Boeheim might be inclined to stay longer to see this transition through. He also might be encouraged by the fact that our recruiting has never been better. (Today DaJuan Coleman of Jamesville Dewitt High School, one of the top big men in the country, spurned Kentucky and Ohio State to sign with Syracuse. ) We figure to have some of the best teams in our history in the next few years.

But this is 2011-12 and we are still in the Big East. Many national prognosticators have predicted that this will be one of the best teams in our history. The “math” they’ve done is this: We are a perennial power who won 27 games last year and has 9 of 10 scholarship players coming back and recruited three new players, two of whom were McDonald’s All-Americans. We’re ranked in the top 5 in the pre-season polls. But locally, we can see some holes in the mosaic. The team we had two years ago was truly one of our best ever because it was perhaps our most balanced with solid players at every position. We had two inside scorers, two outside scorers and several guys who could slash to the basket to score. It was our best ever zone defense. The skills of the players fit together perfectly. That doesn’t happen that often. It remains to be seen if it will happen this year. Looking at the line-up, it’s hard to see us achieving that balance.

Beyond that, the one guy we lost was our best player, power forward Rick Jackson and it’s not clear how we will replace him. Our two centers last year were both freshmen and battled the level of completion, the referees and injuries through a frustrating season. Nobody knows how much better they will be this year. We have plenty of proven players at the other three positions but none of them had real star quality last year. Nobody emerged who could really lead the team through the rough times or make the big shot for us at the end of the close game. Hopefully things will be different this year but we’ve learned to wait and see. Syracuse traditionally has good teams and occasionally great teams. This could be one of the great ones but it’s hard to see that happening right now.

 

[orange79]

Nice job. Good intro for the uninitiated.

 

[SWC75]

The Players

CENTERS
As Jim Boeheim constantly reminded us last season, big men take a while to develop and having two freshmen centers, as we did last year, is problematic to say the least. The question is: how far along will they be this year?

FABRICIO (Fab) MELO sophomore 7-0 244
We first saw Fab in a U-Tube clip, making shot after shot from various points on the court. He seemed to have excellent shooting skills for a big man. Particularly intriguing was his ability to make foul shots because our center at the time, Arinze Onuaku, was the worst foul shooter that ever put on a Syracuse uniform. A big man who can make them pay from the line is a very valuable asset. But the video shows Fab working against no opposition until a scrimmage where everyone seemed half his size. In game footage that year he seemed pretty chunky and slow. People wondered about his conditioning. He’d recently emigrated from Brazil where he didn’t even begin playing basketball until the 9th grade. Then, after sitting out a year due to state transfer rules, he played at a small high school in Florida where the level of completion was low. Nonetheless, he had an NBA-type body and his stock rose to the point of being both a Parade and McDonald’s All-American. ESPN listed him as the #1 center prospect in the country. In the McDonald’s All-American game it was clear he had slimmed down And he seemed to be all over the court, rebounding and blocking shots and running the court. SU fans were all excited about having a center of his stature. The last center from Syracuse who made it in the NBA was Etan Thomas a decade ago and the last one to make it big was Rony Seikaly a generation ago.
But Fab showed up out of shape again, (he certainly wasn‘t 244 pounds last year). He started 24 games but was often winded after 5 minutes of play and barely played after that. If he had, the referees would have fouled him out shortly after that. Not only did Fab not know how to guard anyone but the refs seemed to delight in calling fouls on him even when he seemingly did nothing. He was a big, awkward guy who was always visible and sometimes that’s all it takes. Finally, he was hobbled by an early injury that made it as painful for him to play as it was for us to watch. Boeheim kept starting him because he knew what he could become and he did want to give up on the kid. He wound up averaging 2.3 points and 1.9 rebounds per game.
Per 40 minutes of play, these were his numbers:
9.4p 7.8r 1.0a 1.2s 3.1b 22.5+ 2.7mfg 2.0mft 3.1to 7.3pf 15.1- = 7.4NP 4.7OE 2.7FG
(p = points, r= rebounds, a = assists, s= steals, b= blocks, + = the total “positives“. Mfg = missed field goals, mft= missed free throws. to= turnovers. pf= personal fouls, - = the total “negatives”. NP= “net points“, the positives minus the negatives. OE: equals offensive efficiency, (points minus missed field goals and free throws). FG= floor game, (rebounds, assists, steals and blocks minus turnovers and fouls).
Melo did show flashes of what he could do late in the season when he began to acclimate himself to this level of play. He made some moves in the paint where you could see he could be dominant someday. Against Cincinnati he was 3 for 4 from the field, scored 6 points, had 4 rebounds and 4 blocks in 15 minutes. In the first two games of the Big East Tournament vs. DePaul and St. John’s he played a total of 38 minutes and had 22 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks. He played for the Brazillian team in the World University games over the summer and reportedly did well against international competition. So there’s hope that this could be a break-out year for Fab.
But he may have to break out to play. He had a very disturbing off-season incident in which he threatened his girlfriend and injured himself tearing off a windshield wiper from her car. He has a court date coming up for that. There’s talk that he was very controlling toward her and that that may have been due to the low status of women in his cultural background. Is it just another adjustment he’ll have to make or an ongoing problem that will derail his life and career? No one knows at this point.

BAYE MOUSSA KEITA sophomore 6-10 213
Our center position is right out of the United Nations. Baye is from Senegal. He’s so skinny that if he stood on the other side of Fab Melo from you, you wouldn’t know he was there. But his background in basketball is more extensive. He was playing international ball for Senegal before he ever came here. When he did come here, he played for probably the #1 prep program in the country, Oak Hill of Virginia, from which we got Carmelo Anthony and Eric Devendorf. He didn’t even start there- their line-up usually consists of nothing but highly rated Division I prospects. When he did play he showed good instincts for the game and lot of quickness. The same was true at Syracuse, where he was the guy who replaced Fab when he was doubled over in exhaustion or in foul trouble. He’s such a good defensive player and carries himself with such an air of confidence that people where comparing him to Connecticut’s former All-American Emeka Okafor, who led them to the 2004 national championship, (at a similar state, of course). But Keita had no offensive game whatsoever and he just wasn’t strong enough to take the pounding of the Big East schedule. He was also bothered by a hand injury.
His numbers per 40 minutes:
6.0p 10.3r 0.5a 1.6s 3.4b 21.8+ 1.9mfg 1.3mft 1.6to 5.9pf 10.7- = 11.1NP 2.8OE 8.3FG
The big thing with Keita is that he’s just got to get stronger. He doesn’t have the frame to be as big and strong as Fab Melo but he’s got to add on at least 20 pounds over the course of his career here to become a starter and have a shot at the NBA. Both centers need to learn to play without fouling but that will come with experience.

There was to be a third center, Dashonte Riley, who looked good in some clips from high school and who showed some skills, especially passing the ball, as a reserve two years ago. He was 7-0, 233 and moved smoothly. I felt he had a lot of potential and would have given us a good third option at center. But he missed last year with an injury and when assistant coach Rob Murphy got the head coaching job at Eastern Michigan, Riley decided to transfer there. That was disappointing, (I actually think Riley might have been better than Fab and Baye) but hopefully Melo and Keita can get better and handle the position this year by themselves. Jim Boeheim when asked about that in press conferences, didn’t betray any real concern about the center position, so that‘s a good sign.

 

[SWC75]

FORWARDS

POWER FORWARD
There’s only player on the roster who would really qualify as a power forward and some think he’s really more of a center. We will likely see two small forwards in the game at times, perhaps many times. The one guy we’ve got is another freshman big man and the memory of Melo and Keita’s problems last year is still fresh in our minds.

RAKEEM CHRISTMAS freshman 6-9 222
Rakeem, (or “Rock”), was rated the second best high school center in the nation last year by ESPN. But his high school numbers aren’t impressive. He averaged 9.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. It’s said his team was well balanced and didn’t need a lot of scoring from him. But his reputation is based mostly on “passing the look test” and his athletic ability. One discouraging scouting report said “He clearly has a ways to go, as he has a very low skill-level offensively and has never really tried to exert himself in the half dozen or so times we've seen him play. His hands are somewhat questionable, his footwork in the post is poor, and his fundamentals on defense leave a lot to be desired.” Some people have described him as amore muscular Keita. But you have to be able to score at power forward. I saw him play in the McDonald’s All-American game and he made a 15 foot jump shot and looked smooth doing it but I once made a 25 footer in gym class and I’ll bet I looked good, too. I just have my doubts that this guy will be good enough to become the regular power forward as a freshman.
Here are the numbers per 40 minutes for the guy Rakeem will be replacing, the one guy we lost, Rick Jackson:
14.7p 11.6r 2.5a 1.5s 2.8b 33.1+ 4.3mfg 2.1mft 2.3to 2.3pf 11.0- = 22.1NP 8.3OE 13.8FG
Rakeem can’t be expected to produce anything like that as a freshman, which means we need a lot more from the centers than we got last year. I also think we will see a lot of the small forwards in this position this year, especially CJ Fair. (One of the players SU is recruiting for 2013 is a center named Nerlins Noel. If we got him we could have Christmas and Noel playing next to each other. One can only hope.)
SMALL FORWARD

This and the two backcourt positions is where we are “loaded”. The biggest stars in basketball these days tend to be wing players and college ball tends to be heavily dependent on guard play. We saw Kemba Walker lead Connecticut to the national championship last year. But we don’t have a Kemba Walker and the development of the Huskies young big men at the end of last season had as much to due with their incredible run as Kemba did. Still, there are no worries in the remaining three positions. We have talent, experience and depth in all three.

KRIS JOSEPH senior 6-7 210
Kris was ordained the team’s next big star last year after being the Big East 6th Man of the Year the year before. He had a solid year, leading the team in scoring with 14.3 points per game. He has good all-around skills. He came here with a reputation as a point forward. As he had a short burst of exciting play early in his freshman season that caused Jim Boeheim to try to calm people down to keep the pressure off the kid. As a sophomore sixth man, he was more of a slasher to the basket who took advantage of the attention given to Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins outside and Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson inside to score on drives to the basket. People expected him to “replace” Wes Johnson, an incredible athlete and explosive scorer.
But Kris is really just a good college forward, versatile but not outstanding at anything. He can shoot from outside but isn’t a dead-eye. He can drive to the basket but when he became the focus of the defense he tended to get tangled up, get called for charging or, in the Cincinnati game last year, get undercut such that he whapped his head on the court and had to miss the big game vs. Pittsburgh. He can pass but is no Magic Johnson. He can defend when he’s interested but he sometimes seemed to lose focus. He can hold down a position in a quality starting line-up but he’s not a star-quality guy who can carry a team. It was reported after the season that he was battling injuries that weren’t publicized but I don’t think they were the difference between him being an All-American or a just a good college player.
His numbers per 40 minutes last year:
17.6p 6.5r 2.7a 1.9s 0.8b 29.5+ 6.8mfg 1.9mft 2.7to 2.3pf 13.7- = 15.8NP 8.9OE 6.9FG

C. J. FAIR sophomore 6-8 203
CJ is a jumping jack. He plays bigger than his frame, (which makes him the most likely choice at power forward if Christmas doesn’t pan out). He’s a good defender and can rebound. He’s great at running the court and driving to the basket. What he needs is a jump shot. I don’t care if he ever makes a three pointer but a pull-up shot would make him really hard to defend. Unlike Joseph, he seems to have real “star” potential and this could be a big year for him. But I think he’s more of a small forward because he doesn’t have the “post-up” game for an inside guy.
His numbers per 40 minutes last year:
13.7p 8.2r 0.9a 1.7s 1.7b 26.2+ 4.6mfg 1.7mft 1.8to 2.6pf 10.7- = 15.5NP 7.4OE 8.1FG

JAMES SOUTHERLAND junior 6-8 210
James, when you add up his parts, comes to quite a sum but his game has never added up to that sum. He came to SU with a reputation as a dead-eye outside shooter in the mold of a Preston Shumpert or Demetris Nichols. In his first exhibition game against Cal State LA, (also our opening opponent this year), he scored 19 points on 5 three-pointers. But he was only 7 for 24 from the arc during the regular season, (.292). He got that up to 25 for 68 last year (.368) but had consecutive 1 for 9 games against Canisius and Detroit. He did have a big game against Morgan State with 18 points on 7 for 10 shooting. He’s also the team’s best dunker and had 11 rebounds in an exhibition vs. Kutztown State, ( again, the first game of the season). He also saw some time spelling Rick Jackson at power forward when Rick had to take over at center.
James’ problem seems to be that when he’s given more playing time, he puts pressure on himself to perform and his performance suffers from it. His best performances come against the worst teams and in games that don’t count. He’s running out of opportunities to prove himself.
These are his numbers per 40 minutes:
13.7p 6.4r 1.3a 1.4s 1.6b 24.4+ 7.0mfg 0.3mft 0.6to 3.5pf 11.4- = 13.0NP 6.4OE 6.6FG

 

[orange79]

Oops - thought you were done when I posted earlier.

 

[SWC75]

GUARDS

SHOOTING GUARDS
We really had a three-man rotation last year that was almost interchangeable as they were all combo guards. But Scoop Jardine was our main point guard so I’m listing Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters here. The two others, Mookie Jones and Trevor Cooney, are more obviously shooting guards.

BRANDON TRICHE junior 6-4 205
Brandon is the team’s best outside shooter, other than Southerland when he’s playing a bad team or Jones when’s he playing anybody. Like all outside shooters, he’s streaky. He was 7 for 11 in two games vs. Seton Hall and St. John’s in January but was 0 for 4 three times, including against Connecticut when we got beat by 5 in the big East semi-finals. He hit 40% of 80 three pointers as a freshman but only 33% of 150 last year when, like Joseph, the defense was paying more attention. Brandon had quite a streak at the foul line, 37 straight over 8 games and parts of two others, a school record. Few things are as valuable as a guard who is automatic at the line- if you want to protect a lead in the final minutes, just get him the ball and force the defense to foul him. In his other 58 free throws he shot 74%, good but hardly automatic.
Triche is physically strong but maybe a step slow against Big East guards. He can drive to the basket and score. Maybe his biggest problem is one of self image. He tells every reporter whose ear he can get “I’m a point guard”. He’s not creating any problems about it but he’s not really happy with his role on the team. But with Scoop Jardine back for another year and Michael Carter-Williams in the fold, he’s not going to play point guard here, at least not for any long stretches. He sometimes is reluctant to shoot because he doesn’t see himself in that role. He needs to focus on being the best shooter and scorer
that he can be.
His numbers last year per 40 minutes:
15.5p 3.7r 4.0a 1.1s 0.1b 24.4+ 7.1mfg 0.6mft 2.9to 2.7pf 13.3- = 11.1NP 7.8OE 3.3FG

DION WAITERS sophomore 6-4 215
Waiters was actually offered a scholarship by SU at age 14 and Jim Boeheim believed in him enough to stick with him through transfers to four high schools in three years. Like Triche he has a football player’s body but he’s quicker and more explosive. There’s a video of him dunking in high school with his chin over the rim. He’s Scoop Jardine’s cousin and was looking forward to playing with him.
When he actually got in a Syracuse uniform, he seemed like a different player. He just drifted around the perimeter, jacking up three pointers. The one big question about him was whether he could hit a jump shot. He could, but not enough to make a living doing it. (He wound up 29 for 85 on the season, .329). There were rumors that he had an injury that was limiting his speed and jumping ability, (everybody on the team seems to have had some kind of injury they were playing with last year). He had some defensive lapses, which resulting in some shouting matches with JB. There were rumors he was going to leave the team but he’s back for this season.
Towards the end of the season we began to see flashes of what Waiters was supposed to be. He was 11 for 19 in the Big East Tournament, then scored 18 in the season-ending loss to Marquette on 8 for 10 shooting. He showed more of a vertical game, with lighting-like drives to the basket and some dunks. You could see the type of player he could become. Will he become that player this year? Or will it be another year of frustration for him and with him. Will he even be here at the end of the year? Stay tuned.
His numbers per 40 minutes last year:

MOOKIE JONES senior 6-6 220
Mookie was a legendary NYS high school player, leading Peerskill High to three state championships. He was considered the 6th best small forward in the country by as a senior. At Syracuse he has proven a specialist. He makes hitting three-pointers look so easy they look like lay-ups. Even the ones he misses are around and out and just fall off the side of the basket, he’s so smooth. For his career, he’s 45 for 109 (.413) from beyond the arc. He has great range and no conscience. I made a joke last year that he was “last in the conference in time of possession” and got some laughs. The reputation is that he doesn’t do anything else, even though his all-around numbers last year were pretty good.
His numbers per 40 minutes last year:
17.5p 5.3r 3.0a 3.4s 0.8b 30.0+ 8.0mfg 0.0mft 1.1to 4.6pf 13.7- = 16.3NP 9.5OE 6.8FG
But most of those numbers were against inferior opposition. Mookie only played in 12 games last year. He seems to have a casual attitude toward defense but had 9 steals in 105 minutes of play. He may not have a good work ethic in preparing for the season or games. I think it may hurt him that he seems to look rather casual in everything he does. He never appears to be trying hard. Whatever, he puts up good numbers but doesn’t play much and that’s probably not going to change.

TREVOR COONEY freshman 6-4 185
He’s the one of the three recruits that wasn’t a McDonald’s All-American. But he still has the potential to be a very good player. Gerry McNamara, now an assistant coach with the Orange, says that he’s as good an outside shooter as we’ve had. That comes form a guy who hit six treys in the national championship game and who once dropped 43 on Brigham Young, so it’s a strong recommendation. He was ranked the 64th best prospect in the country at any position and the 17th best shooting guard by At their request, this network is being blocked from this site.. He’s supposed to have a good all-around game and most observers think he and Michael Carter-Williams will someday make up SU’s starting backcourt. But he won’t be needed this year so I don’t expect to see much of him beyond the pre-Big East games and one wonders if he might be red-shirted.

POINT GUARDS

SCOOP JARDINE senior 6-2 190
It seems like Scoop has been here forever. He was recruited with Jonny Flynn and it was thought that he might give Flynn a run for his money for the point guard position. He lost that battle and struggled through his freshman season with an odd-looking jump shot that began behind his ear and a stress fracture in his foot. He also had an off the court problem when a relative showed up and used another student‘s ID card to buy some stuff. Scoop knew about it and was suspended. He red-shirted his second year to completely heal his injury.
He came back in his third year and was a totally different player, a roadrunner who scurried all over the court making shots, dishing off, stealing the ball. His motor just kept running and running. He shared the point guard sport with Brandon Triche, with Triche starting and scoop coming off the bench. He increased the energy level of the game every time he entered it. Last year Jardine became the starting point guard and Triche moved over to replace Andy Rautins at shooting guard. It’s hard to complain about Scoop’s production: he scored 12.5 points per game and led the Big East with 5.9 assists per game. The stats say he’s one of the top returning point guards in the country.
And one of the most criticized. His field goal percentage dropped from 48.9% to 41.5% and his turnovers went up from 41 to 55. But so did his minutes and rate of turnovers per 40 minutes actually went down from 2.1 to 2.0. But his misses and his turnovers always seemed to come at the wrong time. His shot selection at the end of games was more than just questionable. He had 7 turnovers vs. Cincinnati and 5 in three other games. Someone even started an ugly rumor that he was shaving points after one bad game. (People who know about these things saw no change in the point spread that would indicate such a thing.)
16.1p 3.8r 3.6a 2.7s 0.3b 26.5+ 8.1mfg 0.6mft 2.2to 3.3pf 14.2- = 12.3NP 7.4OE 4.9FG
But it’s not enough to seriously consider replacing him with another player. And he had some big games- 27 points an 8 assists vs. Detroit, 23 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists vs. NC State, 13 points and 13 assists in the first game against Marquette, etc. Most teams would love to have a point guard of Scoop’s skills coming back and he deserves to be a little better appreciated for his efforts by SU fans. It would help if his decision making at critical points would be a bit better. That’s up to him.
His numbers per 40 minutes last year:
15.6p 2.7r 7.3a 2.0s 0.2b 27.8+ 7.7mfg 1.3mft 3.6to 2.2pf 14.8- = 13.0NP 6.6OE 6.4FG

MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS freshman 6-5 176

MCW is our point guard of the future. He’s tall for the position and very skinny. Some people have said that his form on his jump shot isn’t classic but others have seen him shoot very effectively. I saw him in the McDonald’s game and he seemed almost a non-entity. But a point guard in an all-star game is something of a fifth wheel- everybody’s taking the ball to the basket as soon as they get it. MCW is a guy who runs an offense. He’s supposed to be a great penetrator who can draw the defense to him by scoring and then dish off and who can also hit the outside shot. Some people want him to become our point guard immediately but that’s not going to happen. Others say he will at least be part of the rotation. Like Cooney I just don’t think we need him, this year and since he clearly needs to get stronger, I would think he could be a red shirt candidate. But, if something bad happens with Waiters, we could see a lot of him.

SUMMARY: The key to the whole season is the development of the big men. If Melo and Keita aren’t much better than last year and Christmas isn’t ready to make a major contribution, this is going to be a very disappointing season. But, again Boeheim doesn’t seem to be worried about that so I would expect to see a much improved Melo and Keita and a productive Christmas.
A second favorable development would be for one or more of the players from the other three positions to rise above the level of a position player and become a genuine star- someone who could carry the team during a shooting slump, have an explosive five minutes that gives us a good lead or makes the big shot at the end of the game. I think the best candidates are CJ Fair and Dion Waiters. Fair needs to show a reliable jumper and Waiters needs to get back his above-the-rim mojo. I think we’ve seen what we are going to see from Joseph, Jardine and Triche. They could be more consistent but they aren’t going to sprout wings. The window of opportunity may have closed for Southerland and Jones. It hasn’t opened yet for Carter-Williams and Cooney.
An average Syracuse team wins about 25 games. In a bad year we win about 20 games. In a good year, we win about 30 games. We got to the Final Four about once a decade and each time we’ve done that in the Boeheim Era we’ve wound up playing for the national championship. We won it once, should have won it another time and played a great team close the other time. If the big men come through and Fair and/or Waiters explode we’ll have one of those 30 win teams and this could be another Final Four team or even a national champion, (consider that the 9th place team in this conference won it last year). If nobody explodes but the big men get the job done, we’ll win at least 25. If the big men don’t come through it could also be a 20 win team, which would be a good year for most skills but not here.

Now it’s time to play the games.

 

[orange79]

I wish I had the time to read this, let alone write something like this. Bravo!

 

[cuser1961]

Nice work. Good news is no one tought Hak, Gerry and Melo would win a title in 2003 and we have many options this year that could suprise. It will be fun to watch and see as the team unfolds and expectations become reality, good or bad.

 

[OrangeCrush22]

This got me pumped for tomorrow night. About 22 hrs. away til basketball season. SUball

 

[SoBristol]

Very nice, SWC.
Some promising facts: Keita was a lot better last year than he looked at Oak Hill; Melo improved over the course of last year (took a while) and showed more when he played for Brazil. No reason these two won't continue their improvement curve. Neither is a finished product; both will make mistakes -- but a lot of teams would trade for our duo at center.
Christmas -- we have the luxury of getting him into the mix, without asking him to be a scorer. He needs to get some dunks and put-backs; help on defense and get the boards.
Taken together, we have 3 of the rawest big men in the college game. Will be interesting to see these kids get better month to month.

 

[OrangeTown]

No surprise here, some great information and number crunching from SWC.

But...

SURPRISE!!!!

He didn't only use his two thumbs to type!

 

[SWC75]

No surprise here, some great information and number crunching from SWC.

But...

SURPRISE!!!!

He didn't only use his two thumbs to type!

Spellcheck, baby!

 

[newmexicuse]

The Players

CENTERS
As Jim Boeheim constantly reminded us last season, big men take a while to develop and having two freshmen centers, as we did last year, is problematic to say the least. The question is: how far along will they be this year?

FABRICIO (Fab) MELO sophomore 7-0 244
We first saw Fab in a U-Tube clip, making shot after shot from various points on the court. He seemed to have excellent shooting skills for a big man. Particularly intriguing was his ability to make foul shots because our center at the time, Arinze Onuaku, was the worst foul shooter that ever put on a Syracuse uniform. A big man who can make them pay from the line is a very valuable asset.

Was Arinze really worse than the Helicopter ???? (and Stevie for that matter ???)

 

[newmexicuse]

SUMMARY: The key to the whole season is the development of the big men. If Melo and Keita aren’t much better than last year and Christmas isn’t ready to make a major contribution, this is going to be a very disappointing season. But, again Boeheim doesn’t seem to be worried about that so I would expect to see a much improved Melo and Keita and a productive Christmas.
A second favorable development would be for one or more of the players from the other three positions to rise above the level of a position player and become a genuine star- someone who could carry the team during a shooting slump, have an explosive five minutes that gives us a good lead or makes the big shot at the end of the game. I think the best candidates are CJ Fair and Dion Waiters. Fair needs to show a reliable jumper and Waiters needs to get back his above-the-rim mojo. I think we’ve seen what we are going to see from Joseph, Jardine and Triche. They could be more consistent but they aren’t going to sprout wings. The window of opportunity may have closed for Southerland and Jones. It hasn’t opened yet for Carter-Williams and Cooney.
An average Syracuse team wins about 25 games. In a bad year we win about 20 games. In a good year, we win about 30 games. We got to the Final Four about once a decade and each time we’ve done that in the Boeheim Era we’ve wound up playing for the national championship. We won it once, should have won it another time and played a great team close the other time. If the big men come through and Fair and/or Waiters explode we’ll have one of those 30 win teams and this could be another Final Four team or even a national champion, (consider that the 9th place team in this conference won it last year). If nobody explodes but the big men get the job done, we’ll win at least 25. If the big men don’t come through it could also be a 20 win team, which would be a good year for most skills but not here.

Now it’s time to play the games.[/quote]

There is really no question that Keita & Melo will be improved. Keita, if for no other reason, than that he will be playing with two hands. The question is only the extent to which they will be improved. Will one of them make a quantum leap or will it just be an average year over year developmental improvement ??

The big wild card amongst the bigs is XMAS. Huge amounts of talent & upside. However, from what little I saw of him in HS games, I wasn't impressed. I hope I am wrong, but I see him as very raw & probably a two year developmental project who, hopefully, breaks out at some point in his second or third season. This year, I think CJ easily beats him out as starting PF, and XMAS will probably be a border line rotation player who per Jimmy's usual will get a few shots, but will also get a few DNPs.

 

[SWC75]

Stevie was 328/622 for his career (.527). His worst eyar, he was 83/167 (.497)

Herman was 39 for 101 (.386). His worst eyar was 7 for 26 (.269)

Arinze was 152 for 395 (.385)/ His worst eyar was 37 for 124, (.298)

Herman and Arinze were bascially comperable biut Herman was never a starter and didn't go to the line nearly as much so he didn't hurt us there nearly as much.

 

[jimsonjunction]

"but I once made a 25 footer in gym class and I’ll bet I looked good, too."

I like this. haha

 

[armory]

Oops - thought you were done when I posted earlier.

You can delete posts.

 

[orange79]

You can delete posts.

I know. I didn't want to deprive SWC of all the adulation he is due.

 

[newmexicuse]

Stevie was 328/622 for his career (.527). His worst eyar, he was 83/167 (.497)

Herman was 39 for 101 (.386). His worst eyar was 7 for 26 (.269)

Arinze was 152 for 395 (.385)/ His worst eyar was 37 for 124, (.298)

Herman and Arinze were bascially comperable biut Herman was never a starter and didn't go to the line nearly as much so he didn't hurt us there nearly as much.

SWC,

Great job as always with both the initial post & the factoid update !!!

MM

 

[OttoMets]

Stevie was 328/622 for his career (.527). His worst eyar, he was 83/167 (.497)

Herman was 39 for 101 (.386). His worst eyar was 7 for 26 (.269)

Arinze was 152 for 395 (.385)/ His worst eyar was 37 for 124, (.298)

Herman and Arinze were bascially comperable biut Herman was never a starter and didn't go to the line nearly as much so he didn't hurt us there nearly as much.

Formwise, Arinze was better than both of those guys (and many Syracuse players). Results-wise, I've never seen a scholarship basketball player - anywhere - airball as many free throws as Arinze did. He was in double digits for his career in airballs, which is absolutely remarkable.

 

[Carmelohnoudidnt]

Cuse has a very strong, very deep team. IMO your best players are Waiters and Fair and, of course, Joseph though the first two don't seem to get a lot of press. If jardine and triche can keep their heads during tight spots, and Keita and Christmas can handle the load down low then Cuse is a final four team. I expect nothing from Melo against good teams, he's just not smart, quick, athletic, or polished enough to compete with top level front court talent (which the other final four teams will likely have). As with just about any team, whether they get beyond the elite eight often comes down to matchups... Cuse could easily run into some teams that can't shoot or penetrate the zone and win the whole thing, or they could run into a team that is not a favorable matchup. I like Boeheims chances this year, he's had some hard luck losses in the ncaas and is almost due a bit of fortune... I like them to reach the final four and go possibly a game farther. Not a Cuse fan FYI, I just date one.

 

[bnoro]

There was to be a third center, Dashonte Riley, who looked good in some clips from high school and who showed some skills, especially passing the ball, as a reserve two years ago. He was 7-0, 233 and moved smoothly. I felt he had a lot of potential and would have given us a good third option at center. But he missed last year with an injury and when assistant coach Rob Murphy got the head coaching job at Eastern Michigan, Riley decided to transfer there. That was disappointing, (I actually think Riley might have been better than Fab and Baye) but hopefully Melo and Keita can get better and handle the position this year by themselves. Jim Boeheim when asked about that in press conferences, didn’t betray any real concern about the center position, so that‘s a good sign.

Riley was soft and tentative and never would have been able to bang down low in the Big East. He also had a shoddy work ethic. His senior season a lot of the scouting services noted this and it led to him being dropped from a 5 star to a 3 star (unheard of, really). He wasn't going to develop into much, and Baye and Fab both have much higher ceilings. EMU is much more his speed and he should do well there. He may have gotten minutes last year, and wouldn't have been in the rotation this year.

While he was a decent passer, passing means little as a center, and he didn't like to go after rebounds. People think James is soft, but I can't imagine their thoughts with Dash. (Disclaimer: James isn't soft)