Next year’s backcourt

[IthacaMatt]

I don’t discount any of this. JJ’s shot was a mess last year. He was a better shooter in HS. Optimistic he can turn it around, but shoulder injuries really wrecked MCW‘s shooting ability so that’s my cause for concern.

The kid was hurt. You've been hating on him quite a bit in these threads. He had wraps on his shoulders and his knees last year, and was still one of the top scoring freshman guards in the country.

 

[OrangeDW]

People are sleeping on Cuffe. If he's back to full health, he's going to play.
Next year (i.e., 2024-25), he'll probably be our starter at PG.

Seems like a complete wild card for this year. Could be in the mix, could barely play.

Seems like more of an off guard though?

 

[IthacaMatt]

Seems like a complete wild card for this year. Could be in the mix, could barely play.

Seems like more of an off guard though?

I see him at the point, as a penetrating guard who can get by almost anybody.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The kid was hurt. You've been hating on him quite a bit in these threads. He had wraps on his shoulders and his knees last year, and was still one of the top scoring freshman guards in the country.

I am not hating on him at all. I am just stating how he performed last year. His advanced metrics were below average. I think he has the potential to be great, but he hasn’t been good yet. He had a PER of 11.8 and a negative box plus/minus last year.

 

[Orangezoo]

Seems like a complete wild card for this year. Could be in the mix, could barely play.

Seems like more of an off guard though?

Yeah he's more like Hami Diallo than Judah Mintz at this point in terms of positional fit. Freak athlete who gets by his man and attacks the rim while also being a strong defender. Shooting and distribution are question marks as is athleticism after the injury.

 

[MikeSU02]

I am not hating on him at all. I am just stating how he performed last year. His advanced metrics were below average. I think he has the potential to be great, but he hasn’t been good yet. He had a PER of 11.8 and a negative box plus/minus last year.

I’m stoked for JJ. He was in a mess of a situation and hurt last year, but I think it’s fair to want to see him before being fully sold in.

My biggest thing with JJ is accepting a challenge to be a dawg on D and just as aggressive on O.

I have no worries about the shooting on this team. But I do want to see guys relentlessly attacking. Tight handles. Being able to take a bump and finish. Want to see floaters or pull up Js.

Threes will be there. I truly believe that.

But I want our pressure on O to feel like a dang tsunami for opposing defenses.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Didn't want to jam it in one post but what can make this backcourt one to remember is on defense.

Westry is flat out just a really good defender. He is long and rangy as a guard but also aggressive. He closes in and uses that size to create turnovers. He is the type to get after you early in the possession and make you uncomfortable.

Judah is a little different but in a complementary way. He uses his quickness to funnel the ball handlers where he wants him to go and is absolutely elite at beating his man to the spot and instead of going for the charge he is doing so to force a bad dribble and get the steal or force a turnover. He has such a good ability to present that the ballhandler has space and then close that gap in an instant. He and Chance both have good instincts in cutting off the passing lanes playing a little free safety.

JJ has the tools to be a good defender. He will benefit from playing with two very strong mtm defenders vs playing with a bunch of guys allergic to defense at ND. Their help D was always putrid and the lack of emphasis on D was just bad. With having 4 other guards that play with a high level of intensity on that end in practice it should bring out that potential some. I do expect he will be the clear weak spot of the 3 main guards but if that means he is average vs those two being very good- that still bodes well.

People talk about zone vs mtm for next season and we all know about JAB's 2-3 zone with mtm principles. I can actually see Red doing same but completely opposite. Man to man with zone principles. Lots of man matchups with pressure D, but doing switch offs when our guys are screened. With our athleticism, we can cover more area without our guys having to fight through screens.

 

[Orangezoo]

People talk about zone vs mtm for next season and we all know about JAB's 2-3 zone with mtm principles. I can actually see Red doing same but completely opposite. Man to man with zone principles. Lots of man matchups with pressure D, but doing switch offs when our guys are screened. With our athleticism, we can cover more area without our guys having to fight through screens.

In many ways the pack line D UVA plays is essentially mtm with zone principles. That said pressure backing into that is far more preferred.

 

[IthacaMatt]

People talk about zone vs mtm for next season and we all know about JAB's 2-3 zone with mtm principles. I can actually see Red doing same but completely opposite. Man to man with zone principles. Lots of man matchups with pressure D, but doing switch offs when our guys are screened. With our athleticism, we can cover more area without our guys having to fight through screens.

I think the problem with Boeheim's zone over recent years, aside from lack of the right type of athletes, was that one of his innovations became a new kind of achille's heel of his system.

First, back in the 80's and 90s, people would say that you beat the 2-3 zone with the skip pass to the opposite wing.

So Boeheim got bigger, lankier guards, to take away the skip pass.

So, then teams started putting 3 point shooters on both wings, so it was 3 vs. 2 at the top of the zone (PG + a shooter on each wing vs. our 2 defenders).

Then, Boeheim innovated again and pulled his forwards up even with the foul line, so now it was 4 guys defending 3.

But then, after watching Pitt attack the zone, they figured out to go with the foul line entry pass, since it was 2 on 1 with the center and the offensive low post player. The Center had to either challenge the foul line guy, or hedge / fake, but stay at home on the low post guy.

This led to all sorts of new adjustments - pinch the 2 guards at the foul line to take away the entry pass, have the weakside forward come help on the offensive low post player, etc., but over time - FINALLY THE WEAKNESS - is that (1) he asked his centers to cover more and more area defensively, and (2) he took his forwards too far out of rebounding position.

If Autry simply plays the zone with the forwards deeper, so they can help on the boards and cover the corner shooter as well as the wing shooter, we'll be so much better in that defense.

I see a man-to-man pressure defense, I see a zone press falling back into a 2-3, but with the forwards lower, so they can help more. I see 3 big shot blockers in the back, and loads of rangy athletes.

It could be like our defenses back in Autry's day. I'd be very happy to see that.

 

[two3zone]

The kid was hurt. You've been hating on him quite a bit in these threads. He had wraps on his shoulders and his knees last year, and was still one of the top scoring freshman guards in the country.

He wasn’t hurt the entire year. He was an wildly inconsistent freshman, which is fine because he was a freshman. 0307 hasn’t said anything unfair about JJ, that said, he needs to be a lot better than he was last year as Bell and Benny need to be as well.

I’m excited about next season, but outside of Mintz, every player on this roster is a wild card.

 

[UpstateSM]

Ceiling is legit best backcourt in the country. Couple things have to go very right but the talent is there on paper.

 

[OrangeDW]

He wasn’t hurt the entire year. He was an wildly inconsistent freshman, which is fine because he was a freshman. 0307 hasn’t said anything unfair about JJ, that said, he needs to be a lot better than he was last year as Bell and Benny need to be as well.

I’m excited about next season, but outside of Mintz, every player on this roster is a wild card.

Mostly agree, though I don’t think Brown is a wild card. At minimum he’ll be a rock solid role player who never hurts you and contributes in many ways, because he already was that.

Remains to be seen how much better he will get and if he can be more than that, but at least we know we can count on him to be a solid role player.

 

[mark79]

In many ways the pack line D UVA plays is essentially mtm with zone principles. That said pressure backing into that is far more preferred.

Was just going to say that. Beat me to it. They are masters at hedging and switching. It’s extremely difficult to try to run any kind of pick game against them as they are extremely well drilled to prevent that.

 

[two3zone]

Mostly agree, though I don’t think Brown is a wild card. At minimum he’ll be a rock solid role player who never hurts you and contributes in many ways, because he already was that.

Remains to be seen how much better he will get and if he can be more than that, but at least we know we can count on him to be a solid role player.

I didn’t mention him because he was quite steady, he did seem to somewhat flounder at the end of the year though.

 

[OrangeinDC]

Didn't want to jam it in one post but what can make this backcourt one to remember is on defense.

Westry is flat out just a really good defender. He is long and rangy as a guard but also aggressive. He closes in and uses that size to create turnovers. He is the type to get after you early in the possession and make you uncomfortable.

Judah is a little different but in a complementary way. He uses his quickness to funnel the ball handlers where he wants him to go and is absolutely elite at beating his man to the spot and instead of going for the charge he is doing so to force a bad dribble and get the steal or force a turnover. He has such a good ability to present that the ballhandler has space and then close that gap in an instant. He and Chance both have good instincts in cutting off the passing lanes playing a little free safety.

JJ has the tools to be a good defender. He will benefit from playing with two very strong mtm defenders vs playing with a bunch of guys allergic to defense at ND. Their help D was always putrid and the lack of emphasis on D was just bad. With having 4 other guards that play with a high level of intensity on that end in practice it should bring out that potential some. I do expect he will be the clear weak spot of the 3 main guards but if that means he is average vs those two being very good- that still bodes well.

Man, really good analysis (both post). Really like the breakdowns. Westry is a space eater and good breakdown of JJ, he has the tools. Knew JJ since he was a kid and one thing about him is he will work on his flaws, kid has levels of focus and will put in the work.

These are some of the best breakdowns and most accurate I believe. Somebody gonna steal your stuff, watch for it...

 

[Sbucketball]

Is the development of Judah’s shot the key to whole season? This could be the best backcourt in the country if he can hit 34-36% from 3. The more shots Mintz hits opens the door to different lineups. Have to have shooter on the floor. Bell and Taylor can be replaced with Westery/Copeland if you have to cover Judah out to the three point line.
If he struggles to shoot you have to have a 3 point threat at the 3 sf/3rd guard spot.

Agreed that Judah’s shooting, and also JJ’s, is the key to our versatility and if they shoot well we’ll go far. If they can’t shoot 3s, we need Bell and JT on the court more, which sacrifices some defense and playmaking. But I 100% believe both Judah and JJ will shoot at least 33% from 3. JJ had a great shot and was troubled by his shoulder. Judah was a really good shooter who started to show it after adjusting to college. It won’t be our identity, but our shooting will likely be fine and good enough to keep defenses honest. I think Westry gets a lot of run and is huge for us.

My bigger concern - and IMHO the key to whether we’ll be good or very good - is whether McLeod is any good or whether Maliq can give us a good small ball lineup, but I don’t think we will have any idea until we see it. At least I won’t have any idea, because I’ve been thinking about it a lot and I feel like I haven’t a clue how they will do. Also whether Benny plays consistently well - basically our 4/5 is much weaker than 1-3 so I think them being good is the key to a deep run.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Offensively JJ’s numbers weren’t a lot different than Triche’s in some seasons.

Obviously Triche was an elite defender.

Not being a hater, but this is where I am coming from with the underrated part. Assist rate, TS%, effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, and steal rate are not that close. We are talking about a player who had an PER between 16-20 his Syracuse career. I'd gladly take that from JJ this season.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think the problem with Boeheim's zone over recent years, aside from lack of the right type of athletes, was that one of his innovations became a new kind of achille's heel of his system.

First, back in the 80's and 90s, people would say that you beat the 2-3 zone with the skip pass to the opposite wing.

So Boeheim got bigger, lankier guards, to take away the skip pass.

So, then teams started putting 3 point shooters on both wings, so it was 3 vs. 2 at the top of the zone (PG + a shooter on each wing vs. our 2 defenders).

Then, Boeheim innovated again and pulled his forwards up even with the foul line, so now it was 4 guys defending 3.

But then, after watching Pitt attack the zone, they figured out to go with the foul line entry pass, since it was 2 on 1 with the center and the offensive low post player. The Center had to either challenge the foul line guy, or hedge / fake, but stay at home on the low post guy.

This led to all sorts of new adjustments - pinch the 2 guards at the foul line to take away the entry pass, have the weakside forward come help on the offensive low post player, etc., but over time - FINALLY THE WEAKNESS - is that (1) he asked his centers to cover more and more area defensively, and (2) he took his forwards too far out of rebounding position.

If Autry simply plays the zone with the forwards deeper, so they can help on the boards and cover the corner shooter as well as the wing shooter, we'll be so much better in that defense.

I see a man-to-man pressure defense, I see a zone press falling back into a 2-3, but with the forwards lower, so they can help more. I see 3 big shot blockers in the back, and loads of rangy athletes.

It could be like our defenses back in Autry's day. I'd be very happy to see that.

3pt shooting has changed the game and made zone defense much more susceptible than ever before

It can still work ...if the conditions are right...but as a base...you are opening yourself up to get blown out by the colgates of the world...

when you have the edge in height and athleticism...USE IT...with in your face defense...

there's a reason teams often got their season/career highs vs boeheims zone lately...and its not bc of the specific adjustments being made/not made

 

[IthacaMatt]

3pt shooting has changed the game and made zone defense much more susceptible than ever before

It can still work ...if the conditions are right...but as a base...you are opening yourself up to get blown out by the colgates of the world...

when you have the edge in height and athleticism...USE IT...with in your face defense...

there's a reason teams often got their season/career highs vs boeheims zone lately...and its not bc of the specific adjustments being made/not made

The Miami Heat seem to be making pretty good use of the 2-3 zone. But of course, they play it like I described, with their forwards lower, so they can cover either the wing 3 or the corner 3.

And I think you would agree that generally speaking the shooters in the NBA are better than those in college.

 

[AZOrange]

True, I've got a hunch they're going to be good tho.

I see no scenario where they are “not very good”

 

[jordoo]

Not being a hater, but this is where I am coming from with the underrated part. Assist rate, TS%, effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, and steal rate are not that close. We are talking about a player who had an PER between 16-20 his Syracuse career. I'd gladly take that from JJ this season.

121-26 While Triche was in Orange! He's one of the least appreciated players by the fans IMO.

 

[Orangezoo]

121-26 While Triche was in Orange! He's one of the least appreciated players by the fans IMO.

And should have had a shot at a title if not for that BS call in the semifinal.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Red made me believe he can get talent to SU. I think the team has plenty of options if some kids fail to improve or are injured. I'm not sold that JJ can't play. IMO, a lot of times these kids come to college with a shot or mechanics that made them successful in HS/AAU, but coaches get them into a different system and drills and mess with their mechanics to improve release time, arc, spin, etc. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Now we need to see if he can coach.

 

[Orangezoo]

Red made me believe he can get talent to SU. I think the team has plenty of options if some kids fail to improve or are injured. I'm not sold that JJ can't play. IMO, a lot of times these kids come to college with a shot or mechanics that made them successful in HS/AAU, but coaches get them into a different system and drills and mess with their mechanics to improve release time, arc, spin, etc. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Now we need to see if he can coach.

I'm optimistic in Reds coaching ability also because it's a whole staff not just Red. Executive decisions must be made and it's his vision but there is without a doubt a clear picture this is a tight knit staff and a team effort. 3 former PGs, one who has really grown as a big man coach and now a new kid on the block with a mind for the analytics. The pieces are there for the staff too.

Also think about the guard spot for a minute. JG3 has limitations no coach can fix nor that Joe himself can. That said look at the growth Joe made while here in his game. Gerrys work with Joe shows through a great deal over the past 4 years. There are hints here of abilities with this staff. In game will be the ultimate test of course.

 

[CardiacCuse]

The Miami Heat seem to be making pretty good use of the 2-3 zone. But of course, they play it like I described, with their forwards lower, so they can cover either the wing 3 or the corner 3.

And I think you would agree that generally speaking the shooters in the NBA are better than those in college.

yeah that's a good point. the NBA court is bigger too...so makes zone even harder to pull off

But

1. NCAA is now "new roster every season"
2. inexperienced teenagers trying to learn the intricacies of zone defense vs seasoned pros in 1 season
3. Miami has a lot more say in who actually ends up on their roster vs the Orange...most NBA players don't exactly pick their teams...so I feel the Heat can actually customize their roster much better than Syracuse can

even then, the Heat were still an 8 seed...only 44-38 on the year...not exactly dominant