Gosh, this NFL penalties web-site is not good for my mental health, but it does support a few of my key theories below:
New England Patriots - 2017 Penalties - View by Complete Penalty Log - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017
1) The Patriots should fire their Special Teams coach, because he is by far the weak link of the coaching staff (unless you think, as I do, that the deal is the Patriots take penalties "for the team" on Specials so the numbers don't get skewed)
2) The Patriots really don't get called for Offensive Holding, particularly considering how much they pass
3) The late-season penalty swoon by the Patriots is real, and it's more insidious than I imagined.
The operating assumption is that YES the Kraft-lead NFL has the Patriots in the driver seat, but they have to call SOME penalties.
One theory I've held is that they don't call any penalties early in games but pile on later in the fourth when it doesn't matter...this site doesn't have the data to support that view, although anecdotally I know that's going on.
But separately, either the Patriots need to fire their Special Teams coach, or I'm right they bury penalties on Special Teams. I mean it's a no-brainer right? The Patriots would trade Special Teams penalties all day -- subtract 10 yards but it's still 1st & 10, no game-affecting implications, and the penalties ratio looks more reasonable.
Looking at the data, it's clear the otherwise squeaky-clean, well-coached, highly-disciplined Patriots are actually the WORST at Special Teams penalties in the league (bottom 5 at least)...they have committed 24 penalties on STs, which out of 100 total penalties means they have the worst ST coach because these otherwise disciplined people have no control of themselves on Specials. The average % of team penalties on STs seems to be like 16-18%, but the Patriots are the outlier at 24%. There are a couple teams at 19-20%, but noone
Why would that be? I suspect it's because they WANT it that way. Give us the ball at the 24 instead of the 34 all day, 1st & 10, no game-changing outcome, Pats ball, and now there's a flag on the board. I actually believe this is a thing.
One interesting sidebar to this investigation is that the Patriots really do not get called for Offensive Holding like everyone else. Headline stat, which they probably flash on screen during games, is the Patriots have been guilty of 18 Offensive Holding Penalties...but they really have not. 9 of those holding penalties are on that disciplined Special Teams unit, a number which looks, at a glance, preposterously high. I only looked at a few teams, but the most I've found is three such "Special Teams Offensive Holding" penalties. That means the Patriots, who throw 70% of the time, only get called for 0.5 Holding penalties per game...pretty good for a line that much maligned at the beginning of the year. Oh, and by the way, MOST of those penalties were called in the first 4 games, so they've gone 12 games with like no Holding penalties.
Finally, after getting demolished by the Dolphins, I have to give credit, because that discipline really has shown up in the last 5 games, all must-win for the Pats, have lead to a serious decline in penalties...EXCEPT on SPECIAL TEAMS!! Of the 16 penalties assessed to the Pats over these 5 games (3.2 per game), 6 of them, or 37% have been on STs. In the Tennessee game alone they committed 3 Special Teams' penalties, which helped to make the discrepancy of 10 Titans Penalties to 4 Patriots penalties look better than 10-1 (two of those penalties were Special Teams Holds, one was Unnecessary Roughness).
So, the bottom line is, when push comes to shove, NE is not called for Offensive Holding (last one was Miami in week 14) and when they need to make the discrepancy look more fair they'll fly a flag on Specials where Pats are glad to lose the yards but not impact the game.
It's pretty ingenious really.
My last theory is that there are lots of late flags thrown that will be dismissed, but will check that out later.
So far the data supports the conspiracy theories pretty well.
