Offense - Past, Present and Future

[Crusty]

To provide some context that we can relate to here is SU's relative performance to the rest of D1 in the following offensive categories.

(This isn't to advocate for the merit of this set of measurements, let's keep the geek storm out of this discussion)
View attachment 192218

The grouping is based on stats measuring production, stats showing efficiency and risk, and stats that I think show the quality of OL play.

This data shows a couple of things to me,

1. Gerg was as across the board awful as I've always said.

2. Marrone's philosophy was crawl, walk, run development coming out of the gergian error; protect against the downside and play complimentary football. By 2012 he had a high volume, fast paced, full spectrum offense, it could generate big plays, stay ahead of the sticks and execute long drives, and could go get that tough yard when needed.

3. Shafer couldn't generate a pass offense and couldn't score.

4. Dino is about generating production through volume, not efficiency. His approach stresses the OL and he isn't as worried about the downside on individual plays because "we'll make it up on the back end". It focused on getting ahead on explosive plays and low number of play scoring drives, not complimentary football. When it's humming it's great, when it's not, oye. Until this year they have done at least an adequate, if not a great, job of moving the ball through the air. Except for 2018 points haven't followed, mostly because of the struggles running the ball and not having a truly elite WR to make plays in the compressed space of the redzone.

This year he can't go fast for a bunch of reasons and the per play efficiency is worse, not better. They have hit on a couple of bombs for scores, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that they can't stay on the field most of the time.

The two biggest statistical weaknesses with Dino ball here is the inability to consistently production get in the run game and avoid negative plays.

In the run game it starts with the OL not being able to impose it's will. In my opinion the high number of negative plays is a combination of both the OL struggles and just the number of plays run.

2012 shows you can run a high volume of plays and do a tremendous job of avoiding negative plays, but you need a high performing OL to do so.

Onto the future, there are significant reasons to believe that next year there will be improvement to the point where the offense can a least be between 2018 and 2019.

Single biggest factor is the potential that the OL as a group is straightened out. Since this year "doesn't count" no change in eligibility. Years starting includes this year.

View attachment 192220

The going in assumption is that the starters will be the guys with prior starting experience and where they end up will shake out. Obviously if Servais comes back somebody would move down. And I believe that all spots are going to be subject to competition, but ties will be broken by experience. If a second unit player is better Babers can't worry about hurt feelings.

If Pat Davis comes back and White gets his health issues resolved that will be added depth. Not sure if any of the incoming kids are instant impact players, but hopefully with a solid two deep that won't be needed.

It's essential that this off season be normal. 7 of 10, including three starters, on the two deep have not been part of an off season at Syracuse. Whoever is coaching the position, they can't go another year without being able to have a normal S&C cycle and spring program.

Assuming no career ending injuries or transfers I don't think there is a crisis on the OL demanding it be addressed through the portal. What they need is to be coached up as a group with legitimate competition and depth, and to get stronger. That starting group has the experience necessary to be a functional, productive group, but the process has been backwards, playing time before seasoning. Now they need to focus on the fundamentals and getting better as a whole.

Second reason is stability at running back. I think Tucker and Hough give SU the best pair of backs since at least Smith and PTG. Jordan is the speed guy that can used as another weapon in space instead of trying to run through the A gap. Lutz has made some plays and offers depth if needed. If the offense can get back to the pace they want there are more than enough snaps to go around.

If there is a legit run game and pass protection I think Devito can excel. He has to be here to do so. If there is a reset at QB then all bets are off.

Excellent post. Thanks for your effort.

My concern is I think that, more than any other unit, the O Line needs to work together and that means experience. Not sure we will have enough next year to make a really big difference. Still, if they can keep our QB from being the most sacked in CFB that would be a big help.

An interesting item in your data is 2013 where we had one of our best rushing seasons and one of our worst passing ones. Yet, we made a bowl and won - go figure.

(P.S. let's not forget Antwan Bailey!)

 

[PhatOrange]

How can you see that? He's never played a down.

Because he drew high praise as a true freshman. Played against Duke last season as a true freshman and was listed on the 2-deep going into spring as the backup RT.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I'd like to see us hit the wire for a starting caliber Center. Other than that I think we're good.

imo, HCDB is experiencing what Marrone would have experienced if he'd stayed. Marrone quit when his Senior system QB graduated. Marrone had nothing in the pipeline. HCDB hit the same wall when he lost Dungey. It's going to take him 3 years to recover from the hit, but I recognize the failures of the OL has been the single biggest factor for TD not seeing plug and play success.

Great post.

Kinda scary that both Marrone and Dino had nothing at QB or WR going into year 5. Marrone at least left behind a good OL and good RBs. I doubt he ever goes to Hunt, who really was the difference from making a Bowl or not that year. 2013 likely is a 2011 all over again.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

Because he drew high praise as a true freshman. Played against Duke last season as a true freshman and was listed on the 2-deep going into spring as the backup RT.

Didn't realize that. Great!

 

[Dick_in_MI]

Still, if they can keep our QB from being the most sacked in CFB that would be a big help.

And yet in 2018 we were 109 in the country in sacks, which is only marginally better than last year and this year. But we had Eric Dungey, who led us to the #11 scoring offense in the country and 10 wins.

We have done a lot of finger-pointing at the OL the past two years and the number of sacks they have given up but clearly they are not the only factor in our offensive malaise.

 

[GoSU96]

Fantastic post, Go. One of the best on this forum in a long time.

I'm far from an OL expert, but I hope Dino hits the portal, because there will be injuries and underperformance. There always is. I believe someone posted last week that SU has the fewest OLmen on its roster among all ACC teams. We need to load up, and true frosh OLmen at SU are almost never physically ready to contribute.

In terms of the O overall, I hope the whole #OITNF thing is buried for good. It doesn't work (in terms of putting points on the board), and like you said, puts far too much stress on both the O, and the D. Play normal, and go up-tempo strategically.

I'd also like to see us finally use the whole field in both the pass and run game. It seems like we make defending our O really easy, since we ignore large swaths of the field.

Thanks, I don't think, and even more so if the seniors return, that numbers are the issue going into next year. Caveat is if Red and Froumey have injuries that are career threatening.

All the guys on the roster are three star recruits with comparable ratings. If you can go out and grab a kid in the portal that you evaluate as clearly an upgrade, by all means, but I don't think it's make or break. I wouldn't just add a body.

 

[GoSU96]

Excellent post. Thanks for your effort.

My concern is I think that, more than any other unit, the O Line needs to work together and that means experience. Not sure we will have enough next year to make a really big difference. Still, if they can keep our QB from being the most sacked in CFB that would be a big help.

An interesting item in your data is 2013 where we had one of our best rushing seasons and one of our worst passing ones. Yet, we made a bowl and won - go figure.

(P.S. let's not forget Antwan Bailey!)

Ant graduated after the 2011 season.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Kinda scary that both Marrone and Dino had nothing at QB or WR going into year 5. Marrone at least left behind a good OL and good RBs. I doubt he ever goes to Hunt, who really was the difference from making a Bowl or not that year. 2013 likely is a 2011 all over again.

Zach Allen never did anything at TCU, but there seemed to be evidence that they would have started him from Day 1 (early enrollee, high profile recruit) if Marrone had stayed.

 

[GoSU96]

And yet in 2018 we were 109 in the country in sacks, which is only marginally better than last year and this year. But we had Eric Dungey, who led us to the #11 scoring offense in the country and 10 wins.

We have done a lot of finger-pointing at the OL the past two years and the number of sacks they have given up but clearly they are not the only factor in our offensive malaise.

The high number of sacks are the number of plays run, the OL, and the design of the offense. You run 20 more plays a game than most, you are going just have more sacks per game unless your OL is really stout. And there are issues where the QB, whoever it has been, holds the ball longer than most. There seems to be less get the ball out quick and in rhythm than similar offenses.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Zach Allen never did anything at TCU, but there seemed to be evidence that they would have started him from Day 1 (early enrollee, high profile recruit) if Marrone had stayed.

He never did anything at Rutgers either.

 

[Cusefan69]

That's fine. Vet seems to be a better fit on the outside. I just want him out of the middle.

Froumy is a house...big man. But not in a fat gut big kind of way. While he has not seen much action he certainly passes the eye test. If he was brought in to get size his first couple years and then hit the field he certainly has checked that first box.

 

[money3189]

And yet in 2018 we were 109 in the country in sacks, which is only marginally better than last year and this year. But we had Eric Dungey, who led us to the #11 scoring offense in the country and 10 wins.

We have done a lot of finger-pointing at the OL the past two years and the number of sacks they have given up but clearly they are not the only factor in our offensive malaise.

Right, Pass protection has not been good overall during Dino's tenure. Dungey made them look better

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The high number of sacks are the number of plays run, the OL, and the design of the offense. You run 20 more plays a game than most, you are going just have more sacks per game unless your OL is really stout. And there are issues where the QB, whoever it has been, holds the ball longer than most. There seems to be less get the ball out quick and in rhythm than similar offenses.

2018 was our worst year for sacks. We were 33rd nationally in passes per game but 110th in sacks per game. So our national rank was 5 worse for sacks despite going down 30 spots in attempts vs 2017.

It isn't 100% accurate but if you look at sacks per pass play (passes + sacks which won't include scrambles) we were worst in 2018. So with our best OL and a SR QB. Hard to hope for improvement next year when you see that.

2018 we were sacked every 13.46 passing plays
2017 every 18.125 passing plays
2016 every 14.74 passing plays

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Zach Allen never did anything at TCU, but there seemed to be evidence that they would have started him from Day 1 (early enrollee, high profile recruit) if Marrone had stayed.

I think we would have rolled with RGCL and then Allen after that.

 

[money3189]

To provide some context that we can relate to here is SU's relative performance to the rest of D1 in the following offensive categories.

(This isn't to advocate for the merit of this set of measurements, let's keep the geek storm out of this discussion)
View attachment 192218

The grouping is based on stats measuring production, stats showing efficiency and risk, and stats that I think show the quality of OL play.

This data shows a couple of things to me,

1. Gerg was as across the board awful as I've always said.

2. Marrone's philosophy was crawl, walk, run development coming out of the gergian error; protect against the downside and play complimentary football. By 2012 he had a high volume, fast paced, full spectrum offense, it could generate big plays, stay ahead of the sticks and execute long drives, and could go get that tough yard when needed.

3. Shafer couldn't generate a pass offense and couldn't score.

4. Dino is about generating production through volume, not efficiency. His approach stresses the OL and he isn't as worried about the downside on individual plays because "we'll make it up on the back end". It focused on getting ahead on explosive plays and low number of play scoring drives, not complimentary football. When it's humming it's great, when it's not, oye. Until this year they have done at least an adequate, if not a great, job of moving the ball through the air. Except for 2018 points haven't followed, mostly because of the struggles running the ball and not having a truly elite WR to make plays in the compressed space of the redzone.

This year he can't go fast for a bunch of reasons and the per play efficiency is worse, not better. They have hit on a couple of bombs for scores, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that they can't stay on the field most of the time.

The two biggest statistical weaknesses with Dino ball here is the inability to consistently production get in the run game and avoid negative plays.

In the run game it starts with the OL not being able to impose it's will. In my opinion the high number of negative plays is a combination of both the OL struggles and just the number of plays run.

2012 shows you can run a high volume of plays and do a tremendous job of avoiding negative plays, but you need a high performing OL to do so.

Onto the future, there are significant reasons to believe that next year there will be improvement to the point where the offense can a least be between 2018 and 2019.

Single biggest factor is the potential that the OL as a group is straightened out. Since this year "doesn't count" no change in eligibility. Years starting includes this year.

View attachment 192220

The going in assumption is that the starters will be the guys with prior starting experience and where they end up will shake out. Obviously if Servais comes back somebody would move down. And I believe that all spots are going to be subject to competition, but ties will be broken by experience. If a second unit player is better Babers can't worry about hurt feelings.

If Pat Davis comes back and White gets his health issues resolved that will be added depth. Not sure if any of the incoming kids are instant impact players, but hopefully with a solid two deep that won't be needed.

It's essential that this off season be normal. 7 of 10, including three starters, on the two deep have not been part of an off season at Syracuse. Whoever is coaching the position, they can't go another year without being able to have a normal S&C cycle and spring program.

Assuming no career ending injuries or transfers I don't think there is a crisis on the OL demanding it be addressed through the portal. What they need is to be coached up as a group with legitimate competition and depth, and to get stronger. That starting group has the experience necessary to be a functional, productive group, but the process has been backwards, playing time before seasoning. Now they need to focus on the fundamentals and getting better as a whole.

Second reason is stability at running back. I think Tucker and Hough give SU the best pair of backs since at least Smith and PTG. Jordan is the speed guy that can used as another weapon in space instead of trying to run through the A gap. Lutz has made some plays and offers depth if needed. If the offense can get back to the pace they want there are more than enough snaps to go around.

If there is a legit run game and pass protection I think Devito can excel. He has to be here to do so. If there is a reset at QB then all bets are off.

Great break down. Thanks for your efforts. I personally think we need to add a couple lineman in the mix and let the cream rise to the top. Next year is too important. I also think we have a couple of underclassmen that can make a jump. (Red and Froumy). Vett doesn't seem to be the answer at center. We need to find the right GCG combination and have them build chemistry with one another. We've had too many issues there. Depth should be improved next year. I think we are fine at OT if Serv and Berg are back and healthy but I will like a Juco/Grad to come in and compete as well.

Bottom line I would like to see at least two different lineman added to the line up or 2 position changes. We should already have one with Bleich. I dont like calling out coaches. Cav seems like a great guy. He's had a great career as O line guy for 30 years. He knows his stuff but sometimes a different voice and approach can make a difference in a unit.

 

[GoSU96]

Great break down. Thanks for your efforts. I personally think we need to add a couple lineman in the mix and let the cream rise to the top. Next year is too important. I also think we have a couple of underclassmen that can make a jump. (Red and Froumy). Vett doesn't seem to be the answer at center. We need to find the right GCG combination and have them build chemistry with one another. We've had too many issues there. Depth should be improved next year. I think we are fine at OT if Serv and Berg are back and healthy but I will like a Juco/Grad to come in and compete as well.

Bottom line I would like to see at least two different lineman added to the line up or 2 position changes. We should already have one with Bleich. I dont like calling out coaches. Cav seems like a great guy. He's had a great career as O line guy for 30 years. He knows his stuff but sometimes a different voice and approach can make a difference in a unit.

Yep, too much interior push, tackles helping inside, pocket is DOA

 

[sutomcat]

Froumy is a house...big man. But not in a fat gut big kind of way. While he has not seen much action he certainly passes the eye test. If he was brought in to get size his first couple years and then hit the field he certainly has checked that first box.

Agree. This is why I think he wins the starting position at center next season. I don't know the numbers but based on physique, he has to be the strongest or one of the strongest guys on the team (second to Black maybe).

I think Vet has excellent agility but doesn't have the brute strength and bulk you need inside. He just gets overpowered by the behemoth DTs he has to face game after game.

He also has struggled with his shotgun snaps from day one and has never shown improvement here. Bad snaps have derailed far too many plays while he has been the center.

IMHO, he is better suited to the tackle position.

You get Wil at center, Dakota Davis and Chris Bleich at the guards and we finally have three guys with the physical attributes to hold their blocks and move the pile consistently.

On the inside, we would go from

Elmore 6'0 288
Vetterello 6'4 289
Tisdale 6'3 342

to

D Davis 6'5 327
Froumy 6'6 307
Bleich 6'6 332

Big difference.

At OT, Bergeron should be solid next season and might even contend for all conference honors. Hope Servais comes back. If not him, we would have Vet, Red, Petry, Barclay, a bunch of frosh and I would not be surprised if Mang gets converted over to OT as well. Someone capable should be able to emerge from all those possible candidates.

 

[RandomGuy]

2018 was our worst year for sacks. We were 33rd nationally in passes per game but 110th in sacks per game. So our national rank was 5 worse for sacks despite going down 30 spots in attempts vs 2017.

It isn't 100% accurate but if you look at sacks per pass play (passes + sacks which won't include scrambles) we were worst in 2018. So with our best OL and a SR QB. Hard to hope for improvement next year when you see that.

2018 we were sacked every 13.46 passing plays
2017 every 18.125 passing plays
2016 every 14.74 passing plays

Lol. Wish I had found that.

Sacks per game:
2020. 3.7
2019. 4.4
2018. 3.0
2017. 3.0
2016. 3.1

What it doesn't tell you, is that we've only run 59 plays a game, this year. Its dirty, but I divided total sacks by total plays, to see how often we are sacked.

2020 1 out of every 16 plays results in a sack.

2019. 1 out of 17.5
2018. 1 out of 27
2017 1 out of 28.6
2016. 1 out of 26

 

[sutomcat]

Lol. Wish I had found that.

Sacks per game:
2020. 3.7
2019. 4.4
2018. 3.0
2017. 3.0
2016. 3.1

What it doesn't tell you, is that we've only run 59 plays a game, this year. Its dirty, but I divided total sacks by total plays, to see how often we are sacked.

2020 1 out of every 16 plays results in a sack.

2019. 1 out of 17.5
2018. 1 out of 27
2017 1 out of 28.6
2016. 1 out of 26

That passes the eye test. The SU QBs have consistently had little time to pass the ball the past 2 seasons. This has to be addressed for us to run an effective offense in the future.

 

[money3189]

Agree. This is why I think he wins the starting position at center next season. I don't know the numbers but based on physique, he has to be the strongest or one of the strongest guys on the team (second to Black maybe).

I think Vet has excellent agility but doesn't have the brute strength and bulk you need inside. He just gets overpowered by the behemoth DTs he has to face game after game.

He also has struggled with his shotgun snaps from day one and has never shown improvement here. Bad snaps have derailed far too many plays while he has been the center.

IMHO, he is better suited to the tackle position.

You get Wil at center, Dakota Davis and Chris Bleich at the guards and we finally have three guys with the physical attributes to hold their blocks and move the pile consistently.

On the inside, we would go from

Elmore 6'0 288
Vetterello 6'4 289
Tisdale 6'3 342

to

D Davis 6'5 327
Froumy 6'6 307
Bleich 6'6 332

Big difference.

At OT, Bergeron should be solid next season and might even contend for all conference honors. Hope Servais comes back. If not him, we would have Vet, Red, Petry, Barclay, a bunch of frosh and I would not be surprised if Mang gets converted over to OT as well. Someone capable should be able to emerge from all those possible candidates.

You are right on with this post.

 

[GoSU96]

Agree. This is why I think he wins the starting position at center next season. I don't know the numbers but based on physique, he has to be the strongest or one of the strongest guys on the team (second to Black maybe).

I think Vet has excellent agility but doesn't have the brute strength and bulk you need inside. He just gets overpowered by the behemoth DTs he has to face game after game.

He also has struggled with his shotgun snaps from day one and has never shown improvement here. Bad snaps have derailed far too many plays while he has been the center.

IMHO, he is better suited to the tackle position.

You get Wil at center, Dakota Davis and Chris Bleich at the guards and we finally have three guys with the physical attributes to hold their blocks and move the pile consistently.

On the inside, we would go from

Elmore 6'0 288
Vetterello 6'4 289
Tisdale 6'3 342

to

D Davis 6'5 327
Froumy 6'6 307
Bleich 6'6 332

Big difference.

At OT, Bergeron should be solid next season and might even contend for all conference honors. Hope Servais comes back. If not him, we would have Vet, Red, Petry, Barclay, a bunch of frosh and I would not be surprised if Mang gets converted over to OT as well. Someone capable should be able to emerge from all those possible candidates.

Sounds good to me, Tommy is going to have to get deeper in his sets, Patty Mahomes deep.

 

[money3189]

Lol. Wish I had found that.

Sacks per game:
2020. 3.7
2019. 4.4
2018. 3.0
2017. 3.0
2016. 3.1

What it doesn't tell you, is that we've only run 59 plays a game, this year. Its dirty, but I divided total sacks by total plays, to see how often we are sacked.

2020 1 out of every 16 plays results in a sack.

2019. 1 out of 17.5
2018. 1 out of 27
2017 1 out of 28.6
2016. 1 out of 26

Good research. On top of that, how many pressures that forced the QB out the pocket or resulted in a bad throw? As we all know the pressures kills the timing and execution of the play.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Good research. On top of that, how many pressures that forced the QB out the pocket or resulted in a bad throw? As we all know the pressures kills the timing and execution of the play.

Dungey was under pressure a lot too. If we had our 2018 pass protection with TD we would have a better O but not a decent O.

it is interesting that our Sacks per pass play is very similar by QB except for one outlier. That QB is sacked twice as often. Which isn’t to say that the QB is to blame though. The play calling could change based on who is in. But it is interesting that six QBs are very similar while one is not.

 

[money3189]

Dungey was under pressure a lot too. If we had our 2018 pass protection with TD we would have a better O but not a decent O.

it is interesting that our Sacks per pass play is very similar by QB except for one outlier. That QB is sacked twice as often. Which isn’t to say that the QB is to blame though. The play calling could change based on who is in. But it is interesting that six QBs are very similar while one is not.

Yes it is interesting when you look at it that way. Good point

 

[RandomGuy]

Good research. On top of that, how many pressures that forced the QB out the pocket or resulted in a bad throw? As we all know the pressures kills the timing and execution of the play.

Who knows? How many sacks did Dungey avoid and turn into positive yards? How many are coverage sacks? How many sacks vs p5?