Perhaps we needed this season

[TheCusian]

Point stands: if you were somebody who was judging last year's team in part by the extreme nature of our losses (blowouts) - then by that same logic you should be encouraged by the lack of them this season.

If you then wanted to point to recruits that you're on the right track - you could make that argument. I don't think it's a great one - but recruits tweeting after the game about how close we are is a good thing...

 

[CU44SE]

Read my post above. The comparison between the competition this year and last year is not even close. This team is the walking wounded and have hung in there tough. By the end of the season barring any more inuries, we will be better in all defensive categories and not so different in offensive stats. If I am correct, they will have done it against much better competition. Take two aspirin and post me at the end of the season.

I'm calm, but you identified my point in your second to last sentence. Our defensive stats will be better because we played worse offenses this year. We're not playing a Clemson or FSU who were offensive juggernauts last year. We got Louisville with there back up true freshman QB. We gave up 34 to Maryland who is looking more and more like a fraud. So again, our defense will and should look statistically better. Not to mention wake may have the worst P5 offense in college. Those games should make the defense look better

 

[Crusty]

I'm calm, but you identified my point in your second to last sentence. Our defensive stats will be better because we played worse offenses this year. We're not playing a Clemson or FSU who were offensive juggernauts last year. We got Louisville with there back up true freshman QB. We gave up 34 to Maryland who is looking more and more like a fraud. So again, our defense will and should look statistically better. Not to mention wake may have the worst P5 offense in college. Those games should make the defense look better

Well, you parsed my post instead of looking at the entire schedule. You seem hung up on FSU and Clemson. Even there, Winston played the whole game this year and less than 3/4 of it last year. Last year stats including Tulane and Wagner.

Maryland is better than they were last year so what is your point there?
If you do not think our schedule thus far in 2014 is tougher than last year there is nothing more to discuss.

 

[TheCusian]

I'm calm, but you identified my point in your second to last sentence. Our defensive stats will be better because we played worse offenses this year. We're not playing a Clemson or FSU who were offensive juggernauts last year. We got Louisville with there back up true freshman QB. We gave up 34 to Maryland who is looking more and more like a fraud. So again, our defense will and should look statistically better. Not to mention wake may have the worst P5 offense in college. Those games should make the defense look better

And Northwestern and GTech? We got destroyed by them and there is no correlation to a team this year. None.

 

[Alsacs]

We haven't been blown out this year but we don't have any upset wins either.
3-5 is not going to work. I give SS credit for scrapping 7 wins last year but this year's team hasn't built on last year. Shafer's best win in 2 years is @Maryland or Minnesota in the Bowl game.
Wanting a signature win isn't a lot to ask for.

 

[TheCusian]

We haven't been blown out this year but we don't have any upset wins either. 3-5 is not going to work. I give SS credit for scrapping 7 wins last year but this year's team hasn't built on last year. Shafer's best win in 2 years is @Maryland or Minnesota in the Bowl game. Wanting a signature win isn't a lot to ask for.

For sure. I think this season could be used as proof that we're getting to that point. It's a tough thing to swallow - but as this recruiting class grows up we really could be in store for a nice jump in wins, perception- and a few surprising results.

 

[Alsacs]

For sure. I think this season could be used as proof that we're getting to that point. It's a tough thing to swallow - but as this recruiting class grows up we really could be in store for a nice jump in wins, perception- and a few surprising results.

Regression is not acceptable. Our team won 4 ACC games last year expecting that again is not unreasonable. Expecting 8-4/9-3 was too much, but my expectation were 7-5 if we get 6-6 that would be fine, but 4-8/5-7 would be clear underachieving.

 

[longislandcuse]

There's a difference between 38-20 and 16-6 and 59-3 and 49-14, whether you guys want to see it or not. The gap is closing between the teams that outclassed us last season.

I dont take that as "we got better", more like "they got worse".

 

[TheCusian]

I dont take that as "we got better", more like "they got worse".

I think this is pretty accurate. We've played less elite offenses (maybe just FSU and ND? Maybe?) and more elite defenses. That accounts for the lower scores and also helps mask that our offense is better and defense is about the same.

 

[TheCusian]

Regression is not acceptable. Our team won 4 ACC games last year expecting that again is not unreasonable. Expecting 8-4/9-3 was too much, but my expectation were 7-5 if we get 6-6 that would be fine, but 4-8/5-7 would be clear underachieving.

Agree, of course.

The part that will be open for discussion is if the teams we play this year on the whole are better than last season, does that factor into how we feel about the team in the end? Most people judge teams based on W-L records alone, though deep down it's somewhat intellectually lazy.

 

[Alsacs]

Agree, of course.

The part that will be open for discussion is if the teams we play this year on the whole are better than last season, does that factor into how we feel about the team in the end? Most people judge teams based on W-L records alone, though deep down it's somewhat intellectually lazy.

Villanova is better than Wagner
Notre Dame is better than Penn State
Louisville is better than Northwestern

However, we still 1-2 in those games like we did last year. Our team needs to win 4 ACC games or its clearly a disappointing under-achieving season. The Maryland game last year may be the difference and that is disappointing since the game was at home this year. We should be a bowl team and if we aren't then the coaches didn't get the job done

 

[timkay99]

I think this is pretty accurate. We've played less elite offenses (maybe just FSU and ND? Maybe?) and more elite defenses. That accounts for the lower scores and also helps mask that our offense is better and defense is about the same.

We have had 3 elite defenses thus far - Notre Dame, Louisville (and they may be the best defense in the country not named Ole Miss - 2nd in scoring defense, 1st in yardage defense) and Clemson. We have 2 more coming in Duke and Boston College.

By the flip side, we have faced 1 elite offense - Florida State (# 18 in scoring offense). Next best is Notre Dame at 40 and Clemson at 45. And we don't have any of those coming up either.

This is the reason why people are greatly overestimating the defensive improvement and giving the offense way too much blame for how they have played. The reality is that neither the offense or defense is improved.

Offense has the excuse of injuries. Not sure the excuse of the defense besides the offense keeps them on the field too much.

 

[TheCusian]

Villanova is better than Wagner Notre Dame is better than Penn State Louisville is better than Northwestern However, we still 1-2 in those games like we did last year. Our team needs to win 4 ACC games or its clearly a disappointing under-achieving season. The Maryland game last year may be the difference and that is disappointing since the game was at home this year. We should be a bowl team and if we aren't then the coaches didn't get the job done

Just looking at the ACC - it's still a tougher schedule this year.

Louisville 14 > Maryland 13
Duke 14 > GTech 13

 

[Alsacs]

Just looking at the ACC - it's still a tougher schedule this year.

Louisville 14 > Maryland 13
Duke 14 > GTech 13

By that token then
@Northwestern 13 > Maryland 14.


Maryland cancels out IMO I changed @Northwestern with Louisville and deemed Louisville harder, but still we regressed badly with Maryland,
This team should win 4 ACC games or its underachieved. Why make any excuse. I give praise when its deserved and give legit criticism when warranted.

5 wins is underachieving.

 

[TheCusian]

By that token then @Northwestern 13 > Maryland 14. Maryland cancels out IMO I changed @Northwestern with Louisville and deemed Louisville harder, but still we regressed badly with Maryland, This team should win 4 ACC games or its underachieved. Why make any excuse. I give praise when its deserved and give legit criticism when warranted. 5 wins is underachieving.

Right. I mostly agree with that. It's not an excuse - but it does help explain the results a bit.

 

[CU44SE]

By that token then
@Northwestern 13 > Maryland 14.


Maryland cancels out IMO I changed @Northwestern with Louisville and deemed Louisville harder, but still we regressed badly with Maryland,
This team should win 4 ACC games or its underachieved. Why make any excuse. I give praise when its deserved and give legit criticism when warranted.

5 wins is underachieving.

Is Louisville with a freshman QB making his second career start at syracuse really that much more difficult then at Northwestern with all there offensive weapons which generally we struggle to stop to begin with? And take into account that we thrive on confusing young QB's and hitting them hard, so we should have feasted on the freshman. Usually they get she'll shocked. Lousiville still beat us by 22 at home, where NW beat us by 21 last year.

 

[Crusty]

We have had 3 elite defenses thus far - Notre Dame, Louisville (and they may be the best defense in the country not named Ole Miss - 2nd in scoring defense, 1st in yardage defense) and Clemson. We have 2 more coming in Duke and Boston College.

By the flip side, we have faced 1 elite offense - Florida State (# 18 in scoring offense). Next best is Notre Dame at 40 and Clemson at 45. And we don't have any of those coming up either.

This is the reason why people are greatly overestimating the defensive improvement and giving the offense way too much blame for how they have played. The reality is that neither the offense or defense is improved.

Offense has the excuse of injuries. Not sure the excuse of the defense besides the offense keeps them on the field too much.

I think the poor offensive showing has put the defense in a difficult position in almost every game. Quite frankly, the offense is dreadful and while there are certainly reasons for the poor production, the fact remains that we have given up poor field position, had lousy TOP (13th in ACC) and failed to capitalize on the many TO's (3rd in TO Margin in ACC) the defense has created.

These things are hard to quantify as there are too many variables. IMO the defense is better (how much is anybody's guess) and the offense is simply dreadful.

 

[CU44SE]

I think this is pretty accurate. We've played less elite offenses (maybe just FSU and ND? Maybe?) and more elite defenses. That accounts for the lower scores and also helps mask that our offense is better and defense is about the same.

I don't get it, this is what I have been saying in this whole thread and you have disagreed with me. And now you acknowledge it when someone else says it?

 

[leftytg]

I was going to chime in, but Clev04 has been doing admirable work in this thread and I'd just be repeating the same points.

Bottom line - looking at score differentials from last year to this year and simply concluding that because we've gotten crushed by a little less that we've improved is absurd. There is no other word. It is absurd, as it is an unreliable indicator for about a dozen reasons.

To the extent that they can spin it to recruits as meaningful, by all means go nuts. Recruiting isn't about honest analysis. If they can get recruits to buy in and believe that, then I'm all for it.

 

[tep624]

I was going to chime in, but Clev04 has been doing admirable work in this thread and I'd just be repeating the same points.

Bottom line - looking at score differentials from last year to this year and simply concluding that because we've gotten crushed by a little less that we've improved is absurd. There is no other word. It is absurd, as it is an unreliable indicator for about a dozen reasons.

To the extent that they can spin it to recruits as meaningful, by all means go nuts. Recruiting isn't about honest analysis. If they can get recruits to buy in and believe that, then I'm all for it.

31-15 vs the #5 team in the country, 38-20 vs the #1 team in the country, and 16-6 on the road against maybe the best defense in the country is crushed in your world? Thanks for showing us what we're working with here.

We've performed better in those games than anyone would have expected heading into the season, and that was compared to what those teams were heading into this season, not what they were last season. And that's with an offense that lost it's returning starter at QB, is now starting a true frosh at QB and is on it's second OC.

You guys act like the teams we've played that are considered elite teams are the only ones that have issues this season.

I like how also the FSU game has been re-written into a game where FSU could have scored at will and that we never had a real chance in, when we had a 4th and goal from the 6 that we didn't convert and threw two picks in the redzone. That game was a lot closer than anyone could have ever dreamed heading into this season.

 

[PhatOrange]

Is Louisville with a freshman QB making his second career start at syracuse really that much more difficult then at Northwestern with all there offensive weapons which generally we struggle to stop to begin with? And take into account that we thrive on confusing young QB's and hitting them hard, so we should have feasted on the freshman. Usually they get she'll shocked. Lousiville still beat us by 22 at home, where NW beat us by 21 last year.

their QB really didn't do much to beat us that day. I recall a couple of dropped TD passes and self inflicted stuff. Plus 2 safeties Syracuse is good enough enough to beat them. but whatever. you're sort of arguing semantics. the team this year is the same as last year. one can find improvement in some areas and drop offs in others.

usually the drum beat are the curb stompings. there havent been any stompings this year and through 8 games we've played 2 top 10 teams and 4 ranked teams total.

and to date a redshirt frosh and true frosh QB have taken nearly 50% of the snaps. 15 of 17 quarters; most of which are the true frosh.

 

[TheCusian]

I don't get it, this is what I have been saying in this whole thread and you have disagreed with me. And now you acknowledge it when someone else says it?

Nope.

I wasn't arguing that you were completely right or wrong. I was saying that the OP was correct in that the perception of the team could change based on not getting blown out as much. And that that could matter with recruits.

If you dig you could come to the conclusion that the offenses we've been playing haven't been as good. But that doesn't change the perception that we're hanging with teams that we got blown out by last season. And perception means something. (We finally got some kudos from ESPN about our close loss to Clemson, when we both know that they are not the same team they were last year. But does that even matter? Take the kudos and use it as momentum. It's better than the perception we had after losing 100-3 last season).

 

[Consigliere]

First year in the HCSS/ACC era resulted in some blowout losses that I care to not discuss in detail. This year shows that we can hang tough with the big boys. Perhaps we needed this season so we can go to recruits and let them know its just a talent issue at this point.

First of all, the schedule really did not set up well for us this year to get a strong start out of the gate. Once we lost (gave away) the game to Maryland the strong likelihood was that the road to bowl eligibility would be a nail biter. Still is.

Second, short of a program defining win, the best sell to recruiting targets is the opportunity to play early. The significant number of true frosh playing meaningful roles add veracity to claims that you can come to Cuse and play right away.

Of course I'd feel better being 5 - 3 instead of 3 - 5 but I see the program making strides this season and setting the stage to continue to move in the right direction.

 

[anomander]

We haven't been blown out this year but we don't have any upset wins either. 3-5 is not going to work. I give SS credit for scrapping 7 wins last year but this year's team hasn't built on last year. Shafer's best win in 2 years is @Maryland or Minnesota in the Bowl game. Wanting a signature win isn't a lot to ask for.

I agree. While we haven't been blown out we really haven't been in any of these "closer" gsmes either. None were in doubt in the 4th quarter. I really don't see that as a positive?

 

[CU44SE]

Alright, since I dont think anyone is understanding my argument. I will break it down. Obviously we don't have a whole data set yet for this year, but...

Last years schedule

Penn State--------------------23-17-------------- Season avg 28.7-------------- Def pts/gm- 26.2
Northwestern----------------48-27--------------Season avg 26.2-------------- Def pts/gm- 27.1
Wagner-----------------------0-54 (N/A)-------Season avg N/A-------------- Def pts/gm- N/A
Tulane------------------------17-52--------------Season avg 24.8-------------- Def pts/gm- 21.4
Clemson---------------------49-14--------------Season avg 40.2-------------- Def pts/gm- 22.2
NC State---------------------10-24--------------Season avg 22.8-------------- Def pts/gm- 30.2
Geogia Tech-----------------56-0--------------Season avg 35.1-------------- Def pts/gm- 22.8
Wake Forest----------------0-13--------------Season avg 18.3-------------- Def pts/gm- 24.1
Maryland-------------------3-20--------------Season avg 26.2-------------- Def pts/gm- 25.3
FSU-------------------------59-3--------------Season avg 51.6-------------- Def pts/gm- 12.1
Pitt--------------------------17-16--------------Season avg 26.3-------------- Def pts/gm- 27.2
BC---------------------------31-34--------------Season avg 27.7-------------- Def pts/gm- 28.9
Minn------------------------17-21--------------Season avg 25.7-------------- Def pts/gm- 22.2

Avg score------------------27.5 to 24.6----------avg offense 29.5---------------avg def 24.1


2014

Villanova------------------26-27 (N/A)----- Season avg N/A-------------- Def pts/gm- N/A
Central Michigan---------3-40-------------- Season avg 23.3-------------- Def pts/gm- 23.6
Maryland------------------20-34-------------- Season avg 31.6-------------- Def pts/gm- 29.3
Notre Dame---------------31-15-------------- Season avg 33.4-------------- Def pts/gm- 19.1
Louisville------------------28-6-------------- Season avg 30.9-------------- Def pts/gm- 14.6
Florida State--------------38-20-------------- Season avg 37.9-------------- Def pts/gm- 21.6
Wake Forest---------------7-30-------------- Season avg 14.75-------------- Def pts/gm- 24.6
Clemson-------------------16-6-------------- Season avg 32.3-------------- Def pts/gm- 18.3

Avg score------------------20.4 to 21.6------avg offense 29.1---------------avg def 21.6


Just going to leave out the lower division games because I didnt see their stats right away and its hard to judge them against our competition. So i will leave them out because we should all agree that we should always win these types of games. And frankly, we got lucky to win that game this year. Now looking at the avg offensive stats is a little misleading here. They look pretty on par with last years stats. However, you need to take into account we played a Louisville true freshman QB who has only accounted for 4 td's all year. 3 of which came against murray state when they won 66-21. Not the greatest competition. So they surely do not average 30.9 points a game with him at QB, and I'm really not sure how to justify that.

Clemson is another curve buster. Stoudt has contributed to 2 td's all year, one in our game and one in the south carolina state game were clemson hung 73 points. Again, not very good competition and thats his only other td besides against syracuse. So again, Clemson is not averaging 32.3 points a game with him at QB, Watson has played less snaps and has accounted for 15 total td's in that time. Their averaging about 17 pts per game when stoudt is the starter and they scored 16 against us. so again, right on their average.

Central Michigan was without their leading rusher who runs for 167 yards a game. Their offense is much different when he is playing. I don't think they beat us, but I think they probably score more then 3 points.

Maryland scored above their average on the season

Held Notre dame below their season average by 2 points, however we also forced 5 turnovers. They still managed to almost account for their season average with 5 turnovers.

Florida State hit their average.

Wake forest was held below their average.

The bottom line which i was trying to prove is we are playing less offensive teams this year and better defensive teams, so these games will be lower scoring games, and in turn, closer. So although we were losing 59-3 and 49-14, those were those teams season averages; 51 pts and 40 pts respectively. Essentially, they exceeded their yearly averages. This year, FSU met their season average when they scored 38 pts and Clemson with stoudt at QB essentially met their season avg.

Also people say, well where are the Georgia tech and NW games from last year? Well I think a perfect example of the Northwestern game is Louisville because we gave up 28 points and lost by 22 to a kid that only accounted for 4 td's all year (1 which came against us). We lost to a NW team last year by 21 points. Higher scoring game, 49-28 which may make it look worse and more of a blowout than 28-6. But we were really never in either game. The georgia tech game really doesn't have a match as of yet. But that is an offense that you do not see every day and this team was clearly not prepared for it. Their really is no team they would match up with other then if we scheduled an army or navy. They are unlike any other team we may play.