Class of 2021 SG Lucas Taylor (NC) TRANSFERRING TO SYRACUSE (6/4/24)

[Orangezoo]

That's suppose to be JJ.

Still should be…

 

[djcon57]

“I can’t explain his stats without suggesting he isn’t the player we hope for so I’ll make up hypotheticals on why they are so” is a take.

 

[djcon57]

Well you know, a guy can create more turnovers because his team stinks and he’s getting doubled all the time. Last I checked that doesn’t show up in a stat line. But what do I know?

Good players get doubled all the time. Good players use the double to their advantage and create assists. These assists would show up in his…wait for it…stats.

 

[djcon57]

Fwiw, my take is 35 percent shoot from 3 seems ok to me. For when we got him, sure, decent depth. His defensive numbers are Ga State are hideous but with how we are building the team I don’t that matters much. I’m always down for getting more choices at all positions after what we’ve had in recent history

 

[kcsu]

Agree with the comment about making decisions based on stats in a vacuum. People who have played sports and understand them know that you can't just look at stats and understand how good or bad a player is. Particularly in basketball, where there aren't many players and so much depends on so many factors.

Anyway, I watch the highlight film for Lucas. There are some things you can always safely take away from film. What does his shooting form look like? How quick is his release? Does he move well? Can he shoot off the dribble?

I like his form. He holds the ball up high. Shoots with the same form consistently. It actually looks very much like the way Kiyan Anthony shoots. To me, he looks like a good athlete and yes, he looks comfortable shooting off the dribble as well.

I think his release is very quick. Given his height, his high release and how quickly he gets his shot off, I think he will not have problems getting outside shots off in conference play.

In the film, he takes a lot of what I will call long range (i.e. 24-25 foot) jumpers. On the surface, that is disturbing. We probably don't want that. But we know he was the leading scorer on Georgia State. We know Georgia State was not a good team. They had a losing record in conference play and a losing record overall. I bet he was often put in the position of 'making something happen' when the shot clock got down to under 5 and a lot of his long range shots were driven by that. Only way to tell for sure is to watch whole games, which I am not going to do.

His FG percentage isn't great either and I suspect him forcing shots late in the shot clock played a role here as well. He took 415 shots playing 953 minutes last season, which means he was taking a lot of shots every game. He won't have that role for us. That hopefully should mean a lot of bad shots he took last year won't be taken this coming season.

I know there are people who like Kyle Cuffe a lot and I understand it. He seems like a really good person and a great teammate. It makes him easy to like and root for and I am hoping he ends up having a really good career for Syracuse.

But he looked really raw in his limited time last year. Forced some shots, struggled to get open, struggled to shoot, struggled on defense sometimes. It was a tough year and I get it, he hasn't played much for a while. It is tough when you are an undersized shooting guard and your shot isn't falling.

I think the coaching staff felt that they had to add insurance at shooting guard in case Cuffe continues to struggle to score and in case Moore, a true frosh, struggles to play well his first year of college ball. Most freshman struggle some making the big adjustment to college ball. We have had a lot of good shooters come through the program but not many have bene able to produce at a high level immediately. GMac did but not many others.

So I like this move. Coach Autry is building up a roster with a bunch of options. If a player struggles or gets hurt, there is going to be another player ready to step in. Last year, we didn't have quality depth and when we had a couple players not performed as expected/get hurt, it really hurt the performance of the team.

I think the overall depth of the team is much improved. And if we can add a C/PF type as well, I am feeling pretty good about things. I think this roster will be our best roster in a number of years. I am not sure it will be good enough to make the NCAA tournament but I will be disappointed if we are not at least very much in the mix for an NCAA bid come early March.

Great take.
Kids a mature adult who has excellent athletic skills and a really good shot. Hes a baller who is a great addition.

 

[Orangezoo]

Fwiw, my take is 35 percent shoot from 3 seems ok to me. For when we got him, sure, decent depth. His defensive numbers are Ga State are hideous but with how we are building the team I don’t that matters much. I’m always down for getting more choices at all positions after what we’ve had in recent history

I’m curious on how offensive and defensive bpr numbers translate for us next year. They are very closely aligned with the record of the team so it can be hard to assess the metrics in that sense.

 

[djcon57]

I’m curious on how offensive and defensive bpr numbers translate for us next year. They are very closely aligned with the record of the team so it can be hard to assess the metrics in that sense.

Not true. Look at JG3 defensive numbers on Clemson (an elite 8 team) vs his years at Syracuse. Amazingly similar

 

[Orangezoo]

Not true. Look at JG3 defensive numbers on Clemson (an elite 8 team) vs his years at Syracuse. Amazingly similar

So I’m talking lower level to moving up levels. Look at the bpr figures up and down the rosters at the mid major teams or lower level from there. Generally barely above zero or negative across the board for those teams not above .500 and that’s on both ends. So there is clearly correlation.

I’ve looked through a bunch of different programs at that level and the correlation to record is high. So let’s see how that translates at this level.

 

[djcon57]

So I’m talking lower level to moving up levels. Look at the bpr figures up and down the rosters at the mid major teams or lower level from there. Generally barely above zero or negative across the board for those teams not above .500 and that’s on both ends. So there is clearly correlation.

I’ve looked through a bunch of different programs at that level and the correlation to record is high. So let’s see how that translates at this level.

Show me an example from a lower level who had a bad BPR who came up and had a good BPR. Not saying it’s not there, saying I haven’t seen it. All the top examples everyone uses as success stories like a Grant Nelson had a positive number and a great number in context of their team then got better. Most of the players I’ve looked at who aren’t the top player on their lower level team have not got better coming up.

Again, not saying it can’t happen, but doesn’t appear to be close to the trend

 

[M2MPrinciples]

I’d look at the A:T way before TO rate. Kolek was at 18 pct for example- also higher than Judah.

Carlos also had reliable finishers with him at Hofstra. Look at these at-rim FG% numbers from his team last year:

Now look at ours - Judah didn't always help himself, but his non-Maliq teammates had a tough time:

For completion, here are the at-rim FG% of our in-transfers from last season:
Lampkin - 63.8%
Davis - 61.5%
Taylor - 51.7%

With that lack of a truly reliable rim presence, the staff will really have to work to get our guys clean looks. And of course the players will have to execute.

 

[UpstateSM]

Carlos also had reliable finishers with him at Hofstra. Look at these at-rim FG% numbers from his team last year:
View attachment 241764

Now look at ours - Judah didn't always help himself, but his non-Maliq teammates had a tough time:
View attachment 241767

For completion, here are the at-rim FG% of our in-transfers from last season:
Lampkin - 63.8%
Davis - 61.5%
Taylor - 51.7%

With that lack of finishing ability, the staff will really have to work to get our guys clean looks. And of course the players will have to execute.

Shhhhhhh those Maliq numbers are going to hurt the narrative some are still pushing shhhhhhhhhhh

 

[RF2044]

Shhhhhhh those Maliq numbers are going hurt the narrative some are still pushing shhhhhhhhhhh

What a liability.

 

[sutomcat]

“I can’t explain his stats without suggesting he isn’t the player we hope for so I’ll make up hypotheticals on why they are so” is a take.

I don't think I ever said he was a great player. He is a useful piece that I think will make contributions.

At this point in the recruiting process, getting a guy like Lucas is a win. At least IMHO.

 

[orangefog]

I don't think I ever said he was a great player. He is a useful piece that I think will make contributions.

At this point in the recruiting process, getting a guy like Lucas is a win. At least IMHO.

Not only is he better than an empty chair, he is MUCH better than an empty chair. I don't think that can be argued, although some here will try.

 

[Orangezoo]

Show me an example from a lower level who had a bad BPR who came up and had a good BPR. Not saying it’s not there, saying I haven’t seen it. All the top examples everyone uses as success stories like a Grant Nelson had a positive number and a great number in context of their team then got better. Most of the players I’ve looked at who aren’t the top player on their lower level team have not got better coming up.

Again, not saying it can’t happen, but doesn’t appear to be close to the trend

There isn’t a lot of data for it- so my point is that record correlates to BPR- so I’m curious with us bringing in a lower BPR kid like Taylor ( Leffew would have been a similar situation) how does he translate. Davis and Carlos both had respectable numbers but played at winning mid major programs.

The metrics don’t tell a concerning story really at this point with who we have brought in so much as what the numbers are from the returning guys. Taylor though, like Leffew had poor BPR with both playing for losing teams.

It’s only been a couple years so need more data at this point.

For the kids we brought in- they will play lesser roles than at their previous stops. Thus it’s harder to project how they will fare efficiency and BPR wise. Most data for these type of kids is clear where they play similar roles or much lesser roles but this is more falling in the middle. So it’s not as easy to project based on the metrics given the correlation to record at their previous stops.

You have your unicorns like Knecht who had off the chart numbers at NCOL too. Otherwise it’s a large mix of guys with very similar metrics going off to play up with different roles.

Anyways my point is one of curiosity. I don’t see where the data on EvanMiya clearly shows success or failure with the majority of kids playing up based on their BPR at their previous stop. I think we need to get a couple years past the 5th years being gone to really see.

 

[Cappy3]

Agree with the comment about making decisions based on stats in a vacuum. People who have played sports and understand them know that you can't just look at stats and understand how good or bad a player is. Particularly in basketball, where there aren't many players and so much depends on so many factors.

Anyway, I watch the highlight film for Lucas. There are some things you can always safely take away from film. What does his shooting form look like? How quick is his release? Does he move well? Can he shoot off the dribble?

I like his form. He holds the ball up high. Shoots with the same form consistently. It actually looks very much like the way Kiyan Anthony shoots. To me, he looks like a good athlete and yes, he looks comfortable shooting off the dribble as well.

I think his release is very quick. Given his height, his high release and how quickly he gets his shot off, I think he will not have problems getting outside shots off in conference play.

In the film, he takes a lot of what I will call long range (i.e. 24-25 foot) jumpers. On the surface, that is disturbing. We probably don't want that. But we know he was the leading scorer on Georgia State. We know Georgia State was not a good team. They had a losing record in conference play and a losing record overall. I bet he was often put in the position of 'making something happen' when the shot clock got down to under 5 and a lot of his long range shots were driven by that. Only way to tell for sure is to watch whole games, which I am not going to do.

His FG percentage isn't great either and I suspect him forcing shots late in the shot clock played a role here as well. He took 415 shots playing 953 minutes last season, which means he was taking a lot of shots every game. He won't have that role for us. That hopefully should mean a lot of bad shots he took last year won't be taken this coming season.

I know there are people who like Kyle Cuffe a lot and I understand it. He seems like a really good person and a great teammate. It makes him easy to like and root for and I am hoping he ends up having a really good career for Syracuse.

But he looked really raw in his limited time last year. Forced some shots, struggled to get open, struggled to shoot, struggled on defense sometimes. It was a tough year and I get it, he hasn't played much for a while. It is tough when you are an undersized shooting guard and your shot isn't falling.

I think the coaching staff felt that they had to add insurance at shooting guard in case Cuffe continues to struggle to score and in case Moore, a true frosh, struggles to play well his first year of college ball. Most freshman struggle some making the big adjustment to college ball. We have had a lot of good shooters come through the program but not many have bene able to produce at a high level immediately. GMac did but not many others.

So I like this move. Coach Autry is building up a roster with a bunch of options. If a player struggles or gets hurt, there is going to be another player ready to step in. Last year, we didn't have quality depth and when we had a couple players not performed as expected/get hurt, it really hurt the performance of the team.

I think the overall depth of the team is much improved. And if we can add a C/PF type as well, I am feeling pretty good about things. I think this roster will be our best roster in a number of years. I am not sure it will be good enough to make the NCAA tournament but I will be disappointed if we are not at least very much in the mix for an NCAA bid come early March.

But again, everybody looks good in their highlight films. You have to remember the level of competition those highlights were against. To be hones Ga St had a losing record against a terrible schedule. Taylor showed little to nothing against P5 opponents, either at WF or Ga St. Hopefully he will provide some 3 point shooting off the bench, but honestly expecting him to add any point guard skills is wishful thinking I’m afraid.

 

[SUFan44]

Agreed. He’s not going to be asked to do as much here as he did for Georgia State. We just need him to play defense and shoot. I think Red has done a great job creating competition for minutes at the guard spot. Admittedly I am still somewhat concerned about the PG position, but we have plenty of options off the ball.

Players are players. It will be hard to go from 'the man' to a role player. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, and if he comes in and tries to do way too much.

Hoping with options, accountability is able to be had with players playing outside their capabilities. Saw that way too much last year with certain guys, and they still played.

 

[Ozone!]

Wait...that's not Lucas Taylor!!!!

That’s what I get for trusting sports sights images

 

[Cusefan0307]

Players are players. It will be hard to go from 'the man' to a role player. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, and if he comes in and tries to do way too much.

Hoping with options, accountability is able to be had with players playing outside their capabilities. Saw that way too much last year with certain guys, and they still played.

I view him similar to what UConn did with Joey Calcaterra. He was an inefficient starter at San Diego and he came in for them and did nothing but shoot 3’s at a much higher percentage than he did at his previous school.

 

[Orangezoo]

But again, everybody looks good in their highlight films. You have to remember the level of competition those highlights were against. To be hones Ga St had a losing record against a terrible schedule. Taylor showed little to nothing against P5 opponents, either at WF or Ga St. Hopefully he will provide some 3 point shooting off the bench, but honestly expecting him to add any point guard skills is wishful thinking I’m afraid.

True - one thing to note- Davis and Taylor were both high major recruits vs out of nowhere guys coming in. Certainly talented guys with decent offer lists who took different paths. Carlos is a NYC kid who was no slouch playing in a talent rich landscape as well. Obviously that can all mean nothing but there is ample talent here just taking a different path to end up playing at the top level. It’s going to be an interesting and fun year seeing how it comes together.

 

[Orangezoo]

I view him similar to what UConn did with Joey Calcaterra. He was an inefficient starter at San Diego and he came in for them and did nothing but shoot 3’s at a much higher percentage than he did at his previous school.

Joey did a decent job handling in for short stretches too. Not that we are doing a 1:1 here

 

[Cuse4Life29]

I view him similar to what UConn did with Joey Calcaterra. He was an inefficient starter at San Diego and he came in for them and did nothing but shoot 3’s at a much higher percentage than he did at his previous school.

I hate to admit it, but UCONN has a clear blueprint to winning basketball. They constantly bring in high-caliber perimeter shooting. This is why I'm so high on Ryder Frost.

 

[djcon57]

I don't think I ever said he was a great player. He is a useful piece that I think will make contributions.

At this point in the recruiting process, getting a guy like Lucas is a win. At least IMHO.

Very odd post. I didn't reference your post at all nor did I say the word "great".

I agree that getting him at this point in the process is a def win. I disagree with poo-poo'ing his numbers. The numbers are what they are. Doesn't mean he can't help the team.

 

[Niastri]

Carlos also had reliable finishers with him at Hofstra. Look at these at-rim FG% numbers from his team last year:
View attachment 241764

Now look at ours - Judah didn't always help himself, but his non-Maliq teammates had a tough time:
View attachment 241767

For completion, here are the at-rim FG% of our in-transfers from last season:
Lampkin - 63.8%
Davis - 61.5%
Taylor - 51.7%

With that lack of a truly reliable rim presence, the staff will really have to work to get our guys clean looks. And of course the players will have to execute.

Excellent analysis.

I have a systemic question. With Carlos passing for 6.3 assists last season, couldn't it be a chicken or the egg situation with his teammates finishing at the rim?

If you have a guy who often passes you the ball when you're wide open at the basket, isn't that going to dramatically improve your numbers? Especially the guys who averaged low shot attempts... If Carlos got them one wide open dunk a game, their "finishing at the rim percentage" would be astronomical relative to what they could do on their own.

We really didn't have much of a distributor or a proficient distributing team last season. Everybody was playing isolation first and passing second.

I strongly suspect that won't be the offensive situation next year.

 

[Windyfly]

Quality depth piece. Adds experience and shooting to end of rotation. And viable sub for Bell when he comes out.
Roster is rounding into form quite nice.

Maybe Red and co know what they’re doing after all.

We’ll see how it comes together, but on paper it looks pretty balanced and an upgrade over last year on many fronts…hopefully they take the foreign trip this year. Would seem to be big for this team to get early reps and bond overseas.