so uhhhhh

[OrangeDW]

Keys to enjoying the season that I have hypnotized myself into embracing: Enjoy watching the development of the youger players and hope/pray/whatever that it culminates in enough improvement to make an ACC tournament run. I'm only going back into BURN IT ALL DOWN mode if we have another Bryant/Colgate type of loss.

I want Duke and UNC. Enough is enough. Let’s get some nuts back in this program.

 

[Day2]

I don't think we can be on any 'bubble' where we get in with our annual 1st round ACCT loss.

The league is bad and no one on the bubble will be safe if they don't win a couple conference tournament games.

We are probably close to being in with 2-3 wins in Greensborough though. Lots of leagues like the AAC and A10 are looking like 1 bid leagues. If we win the next 5 before @ UVA we will have made up for the Colgate and Bryant losses.

We haven’t lost our first game in the ACCT since 2017. It’s like some of you don’t actually follow the team anymore.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

I want Duke and UNC. Enough is enough. Let’s get some nuts back in this program.

My liver and overall productivity can't take that sort of hope.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Let’s just worry about Monday’s game and not worry about next March. We just have to win games and we can control our own destiny.

 

[OrangeDW]

We haven’t lost our first game in the ACCT since 2017. It’s like some of you don’t actually follow the team anymore.

Can’t make FT’s always lose earlier than we should with a loaded team, roll the balls out run and gun, smh.

 

[SUMJF]

Apologies, guess some on the board wandered off it’s wanted negative skew after a win.

Our program hasn’t been ranked in 4 years. We have 2 terrible losses already and you want people to be optimistic after improving to 6-4.
This thread isn’t negative because people are frustrated we aren’t even on the bubble. The team has played better the last 3 games it doesn’t change the atmosphere around the program being at an alltime low and frustration being very high. If people don’t feel like being positive and want to vent frustration they have a right.
I just hope Coach Boeheim gets to leave in a positive and doesn’t continue this downward trajectory. We haven’t played a game of ranked vs. ranked at the Dome since February 1st. 2014.

Syracuse 91-89 Duke (Feb 1, 2014) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAAM game, final score 91-89, from February 1, 2014 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

To put this in perspective when this game was played current Syracuse seniors were in Junior High school. The negative skew is a buildup of that frustration.

 

[OrangeDW]

Let’s just worry about Monday’s game and not worry about next March. We just have to win games and we can control our own destiny.

With all due respect, I ain’t on the team and I don’t have to take it one game at a time! I. WANT. DUKE.

 

[DoctorBombay]

It’s interesting that suggesting we aren’t currently on the bubble is considered a negative skew.

I’d suggest saying we are currently on the bubble is literally delusional.

If you want to say we have no chance to be on the bubble going forward, I’d agree it’s a negative skew.

We are def improving and have a chance in the ACC

No. The crazy comes w/ talking about the bubble 10 games in, & before conference play begins.

 

[jncuse]

You guys just don’t learn, do you? We went through this same charade last year. People lost their minds every time Colgate lost a nonconference game, then those same people got real quiet while the Red Raiders rolled through their league. They’re even losing to some of the exact same teams.

Losing to Colgate isn’t ideal, but it’s not the death knell some of you think it is. Same goes for Bryant.

At least five ACC teams will make the tournament. If we finish fifth or better, we’ll get in in. We’ll be on the bubble if we’re sixth or seventh. Bryant and Colgate won’t matter.

The league is not strong. The league is much more likely to get 4 teams than 6 teams. 5 teams may be most likely, but based on league OOC performance and how it impacts key quality win metrics, the downside from 5 is more likely than upside.

League performance is my biggest concern because we need quality wins to make up for what will be a terrible OOC resume.

 

[djcon57]

No. The crazy comes w/ talking about the bubble 10 games in, & before conference play begins.

Blame the op then.

 

[jncuse]

No. The crazy comes w/ talking about the bubble 10 games in, & before conference play begins.

Its fair to talk about the inherent factors happening around us (the ACC being mediocre again) and how that will make it much more difficult for us. That is the whole point of following conference results before January, because they makes SO MUCH difference on what borderline teams need to do in conference.

 

[Day2]

The league is not strong. The league is much more likely to get 4 teams than 6 teams. 5 teams may be most likely, but based on league OOC performance and how it impacts key quality win metrics, the downside from 5 is more likely than upside.

League performance is my biggest concern because we need quality wins to make up for what will be a terrible OOC resume.

Did you not write this same post last year? At least five ACC teams will get in.

Look around, everyone. College basketball isn’t strong.

 

[OrangeDW]

Did you not write this same post last year? At least five ACC teams will get in.

Look around, everyone. College basketball isn’t strong.

Wait, wasn’t jncuse always the one doing all the bubble analysis and telling everyone we’d probably make it back when everyone was freaking out in what were usually our “right side of the bubble years” of 2016 and 18?

Or am I thinking of someone else?

 

[jncuse]

Did you not write this same post last year? At least five ACC teams will get in.

Look around, everyone. College basketball isn’t strong.

Things had to break well for the ACC to get 5 teams. If Tech does not win the ACC tournament its a 4 bid league. 2 of the other teams that got in were bubble teams and the second highest seed was an 8 or 9 seed.
- 15-5 Notre Dame got a PLAY-IN 11 seed. ! A 15-5 team with no bad losses OOC!
- 14-6 Miami and was still on the bubble entering selection week.
- 13-7 Wake Forest missed the NCAA tournament

If you don't think that proves my point that the ACC dug itself a major hole entering conference season that is on you, not me.

Last year, like every year, I predicted (by end of December) with accuracy what conferences will dominate top seed lines and # of seeds. Its not that hard. Really depends on whether there is a gap between conferences. Last year I would have predicted the BIG, BE, SEC and B12 will all get a high % of teams in their league in because they were so clearly ahead of ACC and P12 in out of conference record, RPI, quality wins.

And this year it will be the BIG, SEC, and B12 who will get 23+ teams.

 

[jncuse]

Wait, wasn’t jncuse always the one doing all the bubble analysis and telling everyone we’d probably make it back when everyone was freaking out in what were usually our “right side of the bubble years” of 2016 and 18?

Or am I thinking of someone else?

Nope - that would have been me.
The ACC was much better back then. We also had a better OOC resume (quality wins and losses)

Problem is that we have dug ourselves a big hole this year - part of it on us, big part of it on the ACC.

 

[Day2]

Wait, wasn’t jncuse always the one doing all the bubble analysis and telling everyone we’d probably make it back when everyone was freaking out in what were usually our “right side of the bubble years” of 2016 and 18?

Or am I thinking of someone else?

I’m just talking about the conference.

 

[OrangeDW]

Nope - that would have been me.
The ACC was much better back then. We also had a better OOC resume (quality wins and losses)

Problem is that we have dug ourselves a big hole this year - part of it on us, big part of it on the ACC.

Well, once we beat Duke we’ll be cooking with gas!!!!

 

[Day2]

Things had to break well for the ACC to get 5 teams. If Tech does not win the ACC tournament its a 4 bid league. 2 of the other teams that got in were bubble teams and the second highest seed was an 8 or 9 seed.
- 15-5 Notre Dame got a PLAY-IN 11 seed. ! A 15-5 team with no bad losses OOC!
- 14-6 Miami and was still on the bubble entering selection week.
- 13-7 Wake Forest missed the NCAA tournament

If you don't think that proves my point that the ACC dug itself a major hole entering conference season that is on you, not me.

Last year, like every year, I predicted with very high accuracy what conferences will dominate top seed lines and # of seeds. Its not that hard if you know what are you looking for. Last year I would have predicted the BIG, BE, SEC and B12 will all get a high % of teams in their league in because they were so clearly ahead of ACC and P12 in out of conference record, RPI, quality wins.

And this year it will be the BIG, SEC, and B12 who will get 23+ teams.

Or Wake missed the tournament because of Virginia Tech. I know the committee says they don’t do things like that, but it’s obvious they do.

 

[jncuse]

Or Wake missed the tournament because of Virginia Tech. I know the committee says they don’t do things like that, but it’s obvious they do.

So none of the items below validated my concerns (raised in December 2021) that the ACC's poor OOC play would be a real issue come Selection Sunday?
Miami goes 14-6 and is a 10 seed.
Notre Dame goes 15-5, has no bad OOC losses, and is in a play in game.
Wake goes 13-7 and misses the tournament.

As for the point on Wake getting in instead of Tech. Its possible - but not likely. Wake Forest was a 2 seed in the NIT tournament.

Also the committee has no issues giving only 4 bigs to a power conference that struggled in OOC play (other than the P12 which they do it to all the time). The BIG had a brutal OOC in 2017 (give or take a year). The NCAA did not role out the carpet for a 13-5 Nebraska team that year.

 

[Day2]

So none of the items below validated my concerns (raised in December 2021) that the ACC's poor OOC play would be a real issue come Selection Sunday?
Miami goes 14-6 and is a 10 seed.
Notre Dame goes 15-5, has no bad OOC losses, and is in a play in game.
Wake goes 13-7 and misses the tournament.

As for the point on Wake getting in instead of Tech. Its possible - but not likely. Wake Forest was a 2 seed in the NIT tournament.

Also the committee has no issues giving only 4 bigs to a power conference that struggled in OOC play (other than the P12 which they do it to all the time). The BIG had a brutal OOC in 2017 (give or take a year). The NCAA did not role out the carpet for a 13-5 Nebraska team that year.

We’ll see.

 

[orangefog]

I haven’t read the whole thread, but I would suggest people not focus on the post season. This is a young team. It’s fun watching them grow. We’ve got talent and they are figuring things out. There will be more bumps in the road, but I think we will have some surprising wins, too.

 

[jncuse]

The reason poor OOC play as a conference matters is that there in an inherent multiplier factor that comes up when you only start playing yourself. What ends up happening is there are many teams from the top 3 or 4 conferences that end up in the top 50 in the NET, and much less from the next group of conferences. Makes it much easier to get quality wins and avoid bad losses.

As you see from the charts below, there is a significant difference from the top 3 and the rest. First chart is NET, second is RPI. I know that .55 vs .57 does not look huge, but that is actually a very large gap when you are familiar with the numbers.

The good thing for the ACC is that there are only 3 conferences separating themselves this year, so could open a bid. The Big East has not been this bad in a number of years.

 

[jncuse]

We’ll see.

We already saw in 2022.

 

[Day2]

We already saw in 2022.

Yeah, five teams got in.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah, five teams got in.

EDIT - Not going to do this.