Team Just Looks Better w Long...

[smartman]

Like many of you, I'm really excited about Long's play. That said, I agree with several of you that it's a bit early to grant him the starting position next year (and the rest of this year). We've scored 36 offensive points and 3 TDs in two games - that's not lighting it up. A lot of the Hunt issues were not moving the ball (see almost 600 yards against UM), but the "team" shooting itself in the foot in the red zone (can't fault him for all of that). Maybe Lester helps on play calling? Have an open competition when Hunt is healthy and in the off season - best man wins. Anyone think Edouard has a shot?

On the losses on D next year, agree that we lose quite a bit and nobody strikes me as the leader of the D. I'm not sure Eskridge goes though. I'm not sure he's done enough to stand out and get drafted high. The front four will be exciting and will be good to have Thompson back at DE where I think he could be NFL caliber. Not sure who steps up at LB after Hodge and Franklin - that's a concern. Going to miss Redish quite a bit. He's had an excellent year.

 

[Millhouse]

Like many of you, I'm really excited about Long's play. That said, I agree with several of you that it's a bit early to grant him the starting position next year (and the rest of this year). We've scored 36 offensive points and 3 TDs in two games - that's not lighting it up. A lot of the Hunt issues were not moving the ball (see almost 600 yards against UM), but the "team" shooting itself in the foot in the red zone (can't fault him for all of that). Maybe Lester helps on play calling? Have an open competition when Hunt is healthy and in the off season - best man wins. Anyone think Edouard has a shot? On the losses on D next year, agree that we lose quite a bit and nobody strikes me as the leader of the D. I'm not sure Eskridge goes though. I'm not sure he's done enough to stand out and get drafted high. The front four will be exciting and will be good to have Thompson back at DE where I think he could be NFL caliber. Not sure who steps up at LB after Hodge and Franklin - that's a concern. Going to miss Redish quite a bit. He's had an excellent year.

Scoring on defense reduces your offensive possessions. Maybe controlling for that would make offense look better. Might check that later

 

[SmilinBob]

One of the things I'd like to see is how other teams did vs the same defenses the 2 SU qb's have faced. Were Hunts numbers better or worse than the other qb's that faced CMU, Maryland, ND and Louisville and for Long FSU and Wake. I would add this to the equation when discussing how effective/ineffective they have been.

 

[SUFan44]

hunt was an improvement over allen

long is an improvement over hunt.

you act like people were wrong last year

i hope the guy after long is better than long, keep it going

the most popular guy is the backup stuff gets a little old. sometimes the backup is better

Especially in college

 

[rrlbees]

Scoring on defense reduces your offensive possessions. Maybe controlling for that would make offense look better. Might check that later

I'm not sure it's that much of a swinger. For sure a ST touchdown that is a PR or KR reduces your offensive possessions. But a defensive TD is 1 play and then the ball goes right back to who had it anyways. Probably at a different position on the field, but can we say how many more plays the other team will run after the KO vs how many if they hadn't turned the ball over?

 

[Millhouse]

I'm not sure it's that much of a swinger. For sure a ST touchdown that is a PR or KR reduces your offensive possessions. But a defensive TD is 1 play and then the ball goes right back to who had it anyways. Probably at a different position on the field, but can we say how many more plays the other team will run after the KO vs how many if they hadn't turned the ball over?

their first 6 drives (up to the point it was 30-7), they had 16 points in real life, 20 points if the refs weren't horrible. 21 of their 70 plays came after it was 30-7 and we called off the dogs.

compare to maryland, they had 14 possessions where they were trying to score and 20 points

 

[OrangePA]

The coaching change was made before the QB change. The head coach seems to think the OC was a significant part of the problem.

We know that there was a problem with the offense. Obviously.

But, we don't know exactly what was wrong. The precise reason for the OC change has never been explained. It may have had nothing to do with play calling or football IQ. It may have simply been a case of inadequate leadership or poor communication skills.

We do know one thing - what we have seen on the field is an offense run by a different QB. We just don't have the QB "control" component to truly compare the performances of the OCs.

The play calling might be a bit different - likely not all that much - but the real difference has been the execution - the new QB is quicker, more accurate and throws a ball that is easier to catch.

Against a defense that is better prepared for him, Long will likely not perform as well.

But, he obviously showed something in practice before he was put into FSU the game - there was a reason why a true frosh was given the chance to play so early in his career.

 

[Toga]

He's a gamer. Not a kid that you're going to see throw for 450 yards at this point in his career and not as elusive as Hunt, but, he is the type of guy that makes things happen.. Some guys have an ability to freelance, AJ is one of them, I don't know after 18 or so games if Terrell was.

I'm of the opinion that at this point we need to build for the future with this core of young guys. They all seem more than capable of playing this game at a high level. I just wish AJ had a touch more arm strength. This will come with time though. He's got a really good opportunity in front of him. The next 4 or so games are his "job interview" and if he continues to develop I don't know how you can't make the change as a coaching staff.

Loyalty has a place, I don't know that it comes at the detrament of the team.

Arm strength - while no doubt one can improve arm strength, I frankly can't recall a QB in college or pro who started off being perceived as lacking arm strength - who later was perceived as having a strong arm. Can someone recall any examples?

 

[Millhouse]

The coaching change was made before the QB change. The head coach seems to think the OC was a significant part of the problem.

people are so wary of being accused of the 20/20 hindsight stuff that they downplay the importance of playcalling.

just because it's very hard to measure doesn't mean it's not important.

 

[Crusty]

We know that there was a problem with the offense. Obviously.

But, we don't know exactly what was wrong. The precise reason for the OC change has never been explained. It may have had nothing to do with play calling or football IQ. It may have simply been a case of inadequate leadership or poor communication skills.

We do know one thing - what we have seen on the field is an offense run by a different QB. We just don't have the QB "control" component to truly compare the performances of the OCs.

The play calling might be a bit different - likely not all that much - but the real difference has been the execution - the new QB is quicker, more accurate and throws a ball that is easier to catch.

Against a defense that is better prepared for him, Long will likely not perform as well.

But, he obviously showed something in practice before he was put into FSU the game - there was a reason why a true frosh was given the chance to play so early in his career.

I am not so sure. I started out with your view but the more I look at the replays, the more I see quite a few differences and innovations by Lester.

Obviously, better talent in the passing game combined with a game plan that puts AJ in a better position to succeed go hand in hand. Lester has really changed the offense in significant ways not the least of which is the loose formation with the split TE and one or two backs as the main formation.

The quick game passing routes have been much different and the use of play action, roll outs, sweeps have replaced the bubble screens.

Lester appears to be a shrewd cookie and, just as he did in the Wake game, I am sure he will install new plays and wrinkles, which are not on tape for opponents to study. Quite frankly, I am pleasantly surprised at how resourceful and creative Lester appears to be.

Let's hope this is right.

 

[upperdeck]

we can get caught up in the Long hype.. lest we forget INT's against FSU and was lucky to escape with less than 3 vs wake.. He is going to see way less time to throw and smaller windows this week..

Long brings something to the position for sure.. I am still in the camp that Wilson has the most upside for the offense we want to run. Long can escape trouble and with our oline that is needed for sure. Wilson I think can move well enough, Peyton Manning gets out of trouble and Wilson is a better athlete than him, but that needs to be learned.

Longs arm strength needs to get better to bet the long term answer, but if we keep the vanilla offense, his accuracy can win us games against all but the elite teams , which is most teams on our schedule. Still a true Fr, without size , he is producing at a pretty high level.

 

[Crusty]

we can get caught up in the Long hype.. lest we forget INT's against FSU and was lucky to escape with less than 3 vs wake.. He is going to see way less time to throw and smaller windows this week..

Long brings something to the position for sure.. I am still in the camp that Wilson has the most upside for the offense we want to run. Long can escape trouble and with our oline that is needed for sure. Wilson I think can move well enough, Peyton Manning gets out of trouble and Wilson is a better athlete than him, but that needs to be learned.

Longs arm strength needs to get better to bet the long term answer, but if we keep the vanilla offense, his accuracy can win us games against all but the elite teams , which is most teams on our schedule. Still a true Fr, without size , he is producing at a pretty high level.

That is my main concern with AJ. He is fearless and throws into coverage far too often. It is going to cost us a game at some point and then we will see the fan base reaction. The trick is to get him to make better decisions without losing that dynamism. However, I must say, I like the kid.

Since I really don't know what type of offense Lester will run, I don't know who will be the best choice for QB. They really are very different. As tomcat pointed out in My Take, AJ's lack of real arm strength really showed against the wind in the Wake game. His arm is adequate and accurate but nothing like Wilson's cannon. On the other hand, I have seen Mrs Crusty move faster than Wilson.

I don't think we will really know until the Spring Game at the earliest.

 

[OttoForLife]

It really says something about the psychology of sports fans to read ppl here saying anything negative about Long.

I'm not expecting ppl to anoint him an all-time great, but you're just a gluten for misery if you can't objectively see the difference in play - and level of enjoyment watching said play as a fan - between what Hunt had been doing and what AJ has done.

 

[Crusty]

It really says something about the psychology of sports fans to read ppl here saying anything negative about Long.

I'm not expecting ppl to anoint him an all-time great, but you're just a gluten for misery if you can't objectively see the difference in play - and level of enjoyment watching said play as a fan - between what Hunt had been doing and what AJ has done.

Don't understand your point. Are you saying we should not question anything? Seems to me that fans are simply trying to figure out what we really have here and that seems very reasonable to me.

 

[RF2044]

we can get caught up in the Long hype.. lest we forget INT's against FSU and was lucky to escape with less than 3 vs wake.. He is going to see way less time to throw and smaller windows this week..

Long brings something to the position for sure.. I am still in the camp that Wilson has the most upside for the offense we want to run. Long can escape trouble and with our oline that is needed for sure. Wilson I think can move well enough, Peyton Manning gets out of trouble and Wilson is a better athlete than him, but that needs to be learned.

Longs arm strength needs to get better to bet the long term answer, but if we keep the vanilla offense, his accuracy can win us games against all but the elite teams , which is most teams on our schedule. Still a true Fr, without size , he is producing at a pretty high level.

One of Long's INTs against Florida State was bad [the one where he attempted to throw it away on the run, but didn't get enough under the throw to get it out of bounds]. The other one, with his arm getting hit at the apex of when he's making the throw, I can live with.

Long seems to have better accuracy than Hunt, and a better feel for what's happening around him during live plays. I only say "seems" because we don't have a ton of data points on Long to compare, but qualitatively, the offense looks much more fluid with him at the helm. Some of that is his innate ability. Some of it is more favorable play calling. And some of it is slightly better execution [although we still need to find a way to score more points offensively].

He's made mistakes--sure. But it's also important to keep in mind that he's a TRUE FROSH, thrust into the starting lineup at midseason. All things considered, he's done a fine job so far, and the potential he's demonstrating seems to be off the charts.

I don't view it as hype; I think that Long is earning the accolades. He looks like the type of kid who could be a four year starter--maybe a poor man's version of Tajh Boyd, who despite being undersized proves to be a difference making play maker at the collegiate level [I'd sign up for that in a heart beat]. Despite that assessment, there is still a lot for him to improve upon. I'm really eager to see what he can do against Clemson this week--because in the two games that he's gotten extensive playing time, he's earned passing marks both times.

 

[OttoForLife]

Don't understand your point. Are you saying we should not question anything? Seems to me that fans are simply trying to figure out what we really have here and that seems very reasonable to me.

My point is people should take a wee bit of time to enjoy the fact that SU's QB is reason watch right now. Hasn't been like that for...well ever this season.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Arm strength - while no doubt one can improve arm strength, I frankly can't recall a QB in college or pro who started off being perceived as lacking arm strength - who later was perceived as having a strong arm. Can someone recall any examples?

Arm Strength can be improved. Most throwing power comes from your core and hip rotation. Look at Tom Brady early in his career and then look at him circa 2007. Huge difference in throwing power. Aj needs to work on his core and his throwing power will improve.

 

[Chip]

To me, this is a hard debate to get into. Obviously we all want Long to be McNabb. I want someone, anyone, to be McNabb, with more of an iron constitution of course, the new turf is too nice for vomit stains.

There are just too many factors at play to really know the right answer. I mean, with both Hunt and Wilson down, it doesn't look like we're designing anything for AJ to run. That's a big reason why he'd be in there, and we have to remove it (except when he improvises on broken plays). We haven't seen a Hunt QB/Lester OC combo. So who can really know if that would have helped him. I'd like to hope it would, because that makes for an easier answer to problems.

Teams are going to watch what we're doing with Long, and better plan for it, if it really is as simplified as people say. Not to mention, what he's about to enter into on Saturday night. Elite defense in front of 80,000 of their screaming supporters. Get out of there alive, and without your confidence destroyed, and that will say a lot about him as a player.

Wake game, did we just completely take our foot off the gas early in the 3rd? I would think so. If you're Shafer, a win in that game is a million times more important than style points, and the odds of Wake coming back down 20 are the same if Wake was down 150.

There's certainly new life with Ishmael being more involved. Instead of one and done early, he's being looked to quite a bit. Is that Lester? Is that Long? Is that just Ishmael getting more experienced? Who knows.

All I know is that if we should start playing better at home and beat both NC State and Duke with Long at QB, he had better get the start for Pitt & BC even if Hunt is available.

 

[OrangePA]

I am not so sure. I started out with your view but the more I look at the replays, the more I see quite a few differences and innovations by Lester.

Obviously, better talent in the passing game combined with a game plan that puts AJ in a better position to succeed go hand in hand. Lester has really changed the offense in significant ways not the least of which is the loose formation with the split TE and one or two backs as the main formation.

The quick game passing routes have been much different and the use of play action, roll outs, sweeps have replaced the bubble screens.

Lester appears to be a shrewd cookie and, just as he did in the Wake game, I am sure he will install new plays and wrinkles, which are not on tape for opponents to study. Quite frankly, I am pleasantly surprised at how resourceful and creative Lester appears to be.

Let's hope this is right.

I have to admit. I have not watched a replay of the WF game. So, I probably do not have enough information. And I have never purported to be an X and O fan.

I do recall seeing bubble screens against FSU. And early in the year I saw split TEs - getting Parris back is probably a factor in that regard. So, I'm not sure that we are seeing a lot of change.

It may be true that Lester is using more roll outs but that is probably because Long is better able to do it - he simply quicker and has a better touch on the kinds of passes that are made out of that kind of play.

 

[Crusty]

My point is people should take a wee bit of time to enjoy the fact that SU's QB is reason watch right now. Hasn't been like that for...well ever this season.

I think everybody is enjoying the 1 1/2 game respite. But now we face the rest of the season, which hinges largely on a teenager. Strange situation.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think a few things are happening.

1. We're used to lousy QB play
2. That makes what Hunt did last season look better than what it really was
3. It also makes us more excited about Long than we maybe should be

I'm excited for Long, but am also trying to temper that some. Good QB play for us might not look so good to schools that really know what good QB play is.

I do think Hunt isn't the answer.

 

[RF2044]

I think everybody is enjoying the 1 1/2 game respite. But now we face the rest of the season, which hinges largely on a teenager. Strange situation.

What's even MORE strange is that this teenager--who's a true frosh--seems to be up to the challenge.

Its pretty remarkable.

 

[Chip]

We're still seeing some bubble screens, but the difference is that they are going for positive yardage. I feel like the smallest bubble screen gain since Lester took over has been 6 yards.

Does Lester just count better? Does AJ count better?

 

[Pyle]

Hunt looked alot better after Lester started assisting with the play calling last year. Alot of people thought Hunt was starting to 'get it', the reality is that Lester was babysitting McD and it made the offense flow. As much as I like Long(and I really really do), it's not fair to compare when clearly the OC stuff had alot to do with us finishing how we finished last year. Lester seems to be able to play within his QB, McD was forcing it and couldn't get the offense in rythym, QB gets frustrated and so on.

 

[phil77]

We're still seeing some bubble screens, but the difference is that they are going for positive yardage. I feel like the smallest bubble screen gain since Lester took over has been 6 yards.

Does Lester just count better? Does AJ count better?

Go back and look at AJ's bubble screen versus Hunt bubble screens. 90% of the time AJ has the ball right on the money so a WR/RB can make a play after the catch and get up field. Hunt's passes were all over the place. Thrown behind, low, high all over this was causing the WR/RB to make adjustments on the ball instead of turning up field. That 1 or 2 seconds is enough for a defense to blow a bubble screen up. Those have to be fast and accurate both are not strong suits of Hunt.