Texas, Oklahoma reach out to the SEC

[TheCusian]

This is why UVA and UNC to the B1G makes too much sense and VT and (NCSU/FSU/Clemson) make too much sense for the SEC.

I expect we'll be back in the Big East in the next 5 years.

In this scenario we’re in the B1G, IMO.

 

[Bayside44]

SEC fans prefer the low-class Virginia school to the nicer one.

I find that very unsurprising.

They're a football first school, and it isn't 30 years ago. VT is a really competitive place.

 

[baggerbob]

Because of the signed ND/ACC contracts and because without ND, the ACC is dead man walking..

ND has complied with every word of every contract with the ACC.

If the ACC unilaterally violates those contracts without legal cause (and there is none), ND will file easily winnable breach of contract lawsuits against the ACC.

After the ACC gets done paying ND damages, then what?

It will be without ND and DOA. It will not be in a better situation, instead much worse.

The ACC has no good options right now.

With Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC, the ACC already is Dead man walking. ESPN eliminated 2 conferences with one move. If Notre Dame ever moves to a conference it won't be the ACC.

 

[kirbivore]

P12 media rights are garbage and they are coming to an end. The B1G should create a prisoner's dilemma for the 9 P12 AAU schools. Say we will take the first 6 to say yes. Then take all 9. That gets the B1G to 23 with only Nebraska as non AAU. Then take KU to get to 24.

All the Pac 12 college presidents

The B1G commish

 

[HRE Otto IV]

This is why UVA and UNC to the B1G makes too much sense and VT and (NCSU/FSU/Clemson) make too much sense for the SEC.

I expect we'll be back in the Big East in the next 5 years.

The SEC could end up being 2 teams per state, which helps in a super conference for travel (see the P12 model).

Florida - Fla and FSU
Georgia - UGA and GA Tech
South Carolina - SC and Clemson
North Carolina - UNC and Duke
Virginia - UVA and VA Tech
Kentucky - UK and Louisville
Tennessee - Tenn and Vandy
Alabama - Bama and Auburn
Mississippi - Ole Miss and Miss State
Texas - Texas and A&M
Oklahoma - OU and Okie State
Missouri - Mizzou
Arkansas - Ark
Louisiana - LSU

That is 25 teams.

Kansas with KU and K St would fit the model but they aren't really an SEC fit. West Virginia as a one team state would fit. Cincy as a one team and an FU to B1G would fit.

 

[TerryD]

Someone smart has to explain to me how ACC, if no one gets poached, isn't at least 55mm per year closer to the SEC/Big10 with the dynamic basketball content they have?

I feel like either the SEC/Big numbers are stupidly inflated or whomever that buys the ACC will be getting a screaming deal. I also think if ESPN has the ACC and the SEC then the colleges will start investigating why Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland and South Carolina are getting 90mm per and Clemson is getting 35mm. This will not work long term.

Something is going to shake out here if the numbers are sooo out of whack purely because you were anointed to join a television network (that's what these are, not conferences anymore)

Easy. The SEC and Big Ten signed larger, shorter deals than the ACC, then signed even bigger deal after that.

The ACC signed a crappy deal, then locked itself into that crappy deal through 2036.

 

[longislandcuse]

Because of the signed ND/ACC contracts and because without ND, the ACC is dead man walking..

ND has complied with every word of every contract with the ACC.

If the ACC unilaterally violates those contracts without legal cause (and there is none), ND will file easily winnable breach of contract lawsuits against the ACC.

After the ACC gets done paying ND damages, then what?

It will be without ND and DOA. It will not be in a better situation, instead much worse.

The ACC has no good options right now.

ACC is likely dead man walking if ND has zero intention of ever joining full member.

I’d choose mutually assured destruction with the slight chance someone at ND realizes they have to join a conference and picks between ACC/B1G so we can all move on.

 

[Alsacs]

ACC is likely dead man walking if ND has zero intention of ever joining full member.

I’d choose mutually assured destruction with the slight chance someone at ND realizes they have to join a conference and picks between ACC/B1G so we can all move on.

ND would change unless it’s forced.
The Big Ten wants the ACC to force the issue.
I want ACC to force the issue just because I am sick of it.
I feel ND at that point would just go to the Big Ten and this would be over.

 

[NKR1978]

The SEC could end up being 2 teams per state, which helps in a super conference for travel (see the P12 model).

Florida - Fla and FSU
Georgia - UGA and GA Tech
South Carolina - SC and Clemson
North Carolina - UNC and Duke
Virginia - UVA and VA Tech
Kentucky - UK and Louisville
Tennessee - Tenn and Vandy
Alabama - Bama and Auburn
Mississippi - Ole Miss and Miss State
Texas - Texas and A&M
Oklahoma - OU and Okie State
Missouri - Mizzou
Arkansas - Ark
Louisiana - LSU

That is 25 teams.

Kansas with KU and K St would fit the model but they aren't really an SEC fit. West Virginia as a one team state would fit. Cincy as a one team and an FU to B1G would fit.

Georgia Tech is going to be on the outside looking in unless the B1G wants to go all the way south and stick with the academic heavyweights.

And gosh I really hope there isn't a world where Cincy is saved and we aren't.

 

[kirbivore]

Remember that upstate NY has more population and TV households than many, many other markets in the country. And that SU makes a compelling claim to be one of the top programs of interest in the NYC area. Our "geography" is a plus, and our brand is resonant with college administrators and TV executives.

It's this reason that gives me the most confidence SU will land on its feet. If the ACC implodes we'll just become the prison bitch of a new southern overlord.

 

[elimunelson]

Easy. The SEC and Big Ten signed larger, shorter deals than the ACC, then signed even bigger deal after that.

The ACC signed a crappy deal, then locked itself into that crappy deal through 2036.

If teams can work themselves out of these GOR then I suspect any "bad deal" that the ACC struck can be exited by a team looking to enrich themselves at a conf paying 2.5x more. I mean the numbers make no sense.

As I said the tv studios are the overlords at this point. This isn't good for college football

 

[Alsacs]

if you think texas gives a crap about espn, you are wrong.

they care about texas.

look, i get the House of Mouse is strong and who wouldnt want T & OU, but with NIL, the likely official death of the NCAA, this is all about jockeying for seats at the new table.

the tv $$ will be at the door.

Texas cares about Disney. They have the LHN with ESPN.
There is a reason the Longhorns went to the SEC because they are also aligned with ESPN.

 

[Scooch]

Georgia Tech is going to be on the outside looking in unless the B1G wants to go all the way south and stick with the academic heavyweights.

And gosh I really hope there isn't a world where Cincy is saved and we aren't.

You guys are losing your minds. Take a breath.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I was talking product on the court and that eventually bleeding through to revenue. I admittedly didn’t realize the gap was as big as you showed but ultimately the revenues don’t need to surpass or come close to be a hit to the basketball reliant AD’s. A material move in closing the gap is plenty potent to the athletic departments with the massive advantage from football.

My concern if I’m the ACC, and hoping our basketball programs keep us in the race like your initial example, is the much bigger annual payouts to SEC schools that we already know will occur from football lift up their other programs and mean frequent bumps in facilities, recruiting budgets, coaching budgets, school resources to set up NIL opportunities and more that all place an immense amount of pressure on ACC programs to keep up. If they can’t, it will show in their revenue figures as casual cbb fans start to peel off and go elsewhere.

Of course if that happens though the ACC is probably already on life support anyways so it may not be relevant.

We've got a couple unique aces up our sleeves. We can pack 30k+ for hoops games on campus which others can't as well as what being in NY state could potentially mean for media rights. That latter I'm not sure if relevant or not but the former gameday revenue stream won't dry up unless folks simply stop going.

 

[kirbivore]

the B1G likely got the call from Austin with the threat that theyd go to the SEC if they didnt take them...and after 1 night of whiskey and cigars, the B1G likely called them back and said...go for it.

 

[TheCusian]

Because of the signed ND/ACC contracts and because without ND, the ACC is dead man walking..

ND has complied with every word of every contract with the ACC.

If the ACC unilaterally violates those contracts without legal cause (and there is none), ND will file easily winnable breach of contract lawsuits against the ACC.

After the ACC gets done paying ND damages, then what?

It will be without ND and DOA. It will not be in a better situation, instead much worse.

The ACC has no good options right now.

I like this world where the ACC is screwed and ND is not, lol. The status quo was good for ND last week, but it’s unclear that it will be good into the future. Independent, you’re falling behind $. The ACC is too. Together, less so.

 

[TheCusian]

Easy. The SEC and Big Ten signed larger, shorter deals than the ACC, then signed even bigger deal after that.

The ACC signed a crappy deal, then locked itself into that crappy deal through 2036.

Yeah, if only there was a way to renegotiate

 

[elimunelson]

Yeah, if only there was a way to renegotiate

People really think ~30 teams (some of which are not big brands) will be making 90mm per year and the rest will be barely able to support major football bc their deals are a fraction of that and some of those brands are some of the best in college football?!?!?!?

TV content providers will end up cutting off the fat. My guess is if the ALSACs doomsday scenarios play out, the mediocre teams in any conference will be met with uncertainty. The brands will win.

My guess is at some point we may get soccer superleague blowback from our politicians and this thing gets examined at the congressional level. Too many big time programs won't be discarded into the financial trash

 

[Alsacs]

The idea that Texas called the Big Ten and the Big Ten said go to the SEC we dare you is so wrong I can’t believe Kaiser would say that. If Texas would commit to the Big Ten they would’ve taken them in a cocaine heartbeat.
Big Ten wanted Texas any conference wanted Texas.
Texas aligned with the Disney network which is now the SEC. There’s a reason why the ACC thought they had a shot to get Texas with the Notre Dame offer because of ESPN.

 

[TheCusian]

People really think ~30 teams (some of which are not big brands) will be making 90mm per year and the rest will be barely able to support major football bc their deals are a fraction of that and some of those brands are some of the best in college football?!?!?!?

TV content providers will end up cutting off the fat. My guess is if the ALSACs doomsday scenarios play out, the mediocre teams in any conference will be met with uncertainty. The brands will win.

My guess is at some point we may get soccer superleague blowback from our politicians and this thing gets examined at the congressional level. Too many big time programs won't be discarded into the financial trash

Yep. If I was Vanderbilt I’d think long and hard about my vote.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

I have this crazy feeling that the PAC-12 and ACC are going to do some sort of a bicoastal alliance to basically just try to take over the massive coastal markets. I don't know that it would work, or what it would look like, but I just have a feeling.

 

[HOFCeluck]

TV content providers will end up cutting off the fat.

The last guy who tried that with Joe Girard still hasn’t been found.

 

[nd1973]

I have this crazy feeling that the PAC-12 and ACC are going to do some sort of a bicoastal alliance to basically just try to take over the massive coastal markets. I don't know that it would work, or what it would look like, but I just have a feeling.

That would be amazing and smart. But the ACC will not do anything like that because they are not an innovative conference.

 

[rrlbees]

 

[TerryD]

I like this world where the ACC is screwed and ND is not, lol. The status quo was good for ND last week, but it’s unclear that it will be good into the future. Independent, you’re falling behind $. The ACC is too. Together, less so.

ND has many more financial options than ACC teams do, with Fighting Irish TV going to subscriptions next year and its tv deal up in 2025, not 2036.

ND can afford to sit back and wait for the dust to settle.

The worst that can happen is that it joins the Big Ten years down the road, becomes a superconference member and makes $80 million a year in TV/conference money.

ND has zero reason to panic (it won't, it never does) and make any quick moves for less money.

Jack Swarbrick knows all of this. I don't think ND will budge at all.