The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[pearl31]

i agree

i was on the record that we were going to get in if i remember correctly

You were.
And me.
And jncuse

 

[upperdeck]

Ugh Houston

edit: Houston!!!! What an ending

really interesting because it was really over and back when got the inbounds pass.

 

[20plus]

Penn State about to come from 15 down to steal this one against Maryland Maryland loses this they can’t lose to Michigan State in tourney

 

[Briancuse]

If Maryland loses are they in trouble.

 

[Orangezoo]

And Penn State will be top 40 in the Net now at 10-13 lol

 

[NineOneSeven]

If Maryland loses are they in trouble.

Only Sith Lords deal in absolutes

 

[orangeinnyc]

Only Sith Lords deal in absolutes

The force is strong in this one.

 

[adab1217]

Even if Maryland loses to MSU, they're top 40 in NET with 4 Q1 wins, at Illinois, at Wisco, at Rutgers and vs. Purdue.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Even if Maryland loses to MSU, they're top 40 in NET with 4 Q1 wins, at Illinois, at Wisco, at Rutgers and vs. Purdue.

Maryland dropped to 34 NET on Saturday NET ranking release. Dropping spots because it lost to B1G bottom three Northwestern. This does not include it lost to another bottom three Penn State on Sunday. I think it would be 37 or 39 NET including Sunday result. If it lost to the first round on B1G tournament, it will drop to something like 43 NET. Maryland will be a bubble team.

 

[nycfan]

More good news on the Bracket Matrix -- this morning when it was updated, we were the 3rd team out. They updated it again tonight and now the very first team out -- almost there!

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

 

[NineOneSeven]

What also opens up 2 spots this year is Arizona postseason ban and no ivy league champ. That’s accounted for on the matrix, just saying it means you go down the list a tad further to fill those spots.

 

[Cusefan0307]

What also opens up 2 spots this year is Arizona postseason ban and no ivy league champ. That’s accounted for on the matrix, just saying it means you go down the list a tad further to fill those spots.

True, although Arizona would most likely be on the bubble themselves right now too.

 

[Charbroil]

More good news on the Bracket Matrix -- this morning when it was updated, we were the 3rd team out. They updated it again tonight and now the very first team out -- almost there!

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

It’s looking more and more possible that 1 win in the ACC tournament could get the Orange in. I’d say it would probably be 50/50 if Cuse beats NC State and loses to Virginia.

If you asked me a few days ago I would’ve said just getting one win would only give them a slight chance of sneaking in.

 

[sutomcat]

More good news on the Bracket Matrix -- this morning when it was updated, we were the 3rd team out. They updated it again tonight and now the very first team out -- almost there!

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

We are on about 25% of the brackets updated 3/7. We are only on 3 of the 33 brackets that have not been updated since 3/7. If those brackets get updated at the same percentage, we should gain another 5 votes or so.

Plus, a lot of these people are lemmings. They appear to watch what everyone else is doing and when certain influential people add or drop teams, others do the same. I suspect Palm is the big guy many are watching. He knows it and is not going to change things up until late, so he might differentiate himself from the pack.

I wonder if he will tip his hand and add Syracuse in his next update? His last update was before the games of yesterday. I suspect he might hold off and not add them until very late. Assuming Syracuse is able to win against NC State.

Getting 4 11 seeds and 1 10 seed is good to see.

 

[Bball44]

More good news on the Bracket Matrix -- this morning when it was updated, we were the 3rd team out. They updated it again tonight and now the very first team out -- almost there!

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

First team out is the replacement position. Imagine that team would be in Indy practicing until last minute.

 

[Finwad32]

Just beat NC State. For the love of all that is holy, please, beat NC State.

 

[Cuse1055]

Just beat NC State. For the love of all that is holy, please, beat NC State.

We might rely on Buddy backdowns to get us into the tourney

 

[Orijinal]

Regardless of if we need one or two wins, the ACC tourney did not set up well for us.

It's nearly impossible/improbable to beat a team 3 times in one season. Has it been done before in recent memory? Yes. But nearly impossible.

And if we get by NCState, we have to face the worst possible team Syracuse could face in the tourney ...the Syracuse Soul Destroyer Virginia Cavaliers

I hope it's not a harbinger of things to come, but probably is. Sorry for the downer post. I absolutely hope to eat crow

 

[Alsacs]

Regardless of if we need one or two wins, the ACC tourney did not set up well for us.

It's nearly impossible/improbable to beat a team 3 times in one season. Has it been done before in recent memory? Yes. But nearly impossible.

And if we get by NCState, we have to face the worst possible team Syracuse could face in the tourney ...the Syracuse Soul Destroyer Virginia Cavaliers

I hope it's not a harbinger of things to come, but probably is. Sorry for the downer post. I absolutely hope to eat crow

I feel really good about playing NC State. They only worry me with their 2 bigs.
Their guards can’t defend well if they play the usual rotations.

The 3 times thing is mental to me. If you are better than the opponent it doesn’t matter. They know what we are doing no matter what.

 

[shandeezy7]

Regardless of if we need one or two wins, the ACC tourney did not set up well for us.

It's nearly impossible/improbable to beat a team 3 times in one season. Has it been done before in recent memory? Yes. But nearly impossible.

And if we get by NCState, we have to face the worst possible team Syracuse could face in the tourney ...the Syracuse Soul Destroyer Virginia Cavaliers

I hope it's not a harbinger of things to come, but probably is. Sorry for the downer post. I absolutely hope to eat crow

The "hard to beat a team three times in one year" thing is basically an urban legend at this point. This article is a few years old, but it totally dispels that myth:

“It’s Hard To Beat A Team Three Times” | COACH BOB WALSH

According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.

So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

 

[Knicks411]

The "hard to beat a team three times in one year" thing is basically an urban legend at this point. This article is a few years old, but it totally dispels that myth:

“It’s Hard To Beat A Team Three Times” | COACH BOB WALSH

According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.

So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

Which of course makes sense, because if you beat a team the first two times you played them, that's a pretty good indication you're better than they are!

Good find on the link

 

[upperdeck]

I wonder what those stats say if you remove all the games between teams that are clearly better... like all the times the best team in the league beats the worst team. How often does a team win 3 times when its just marginally better.. like 5pts or so?

 

[dollarbill44]

Regardless of if we need one or two wins, the ACC tourney did not set up well for us.

It's nearly impossible/improbable to beat a team 3 times in one season. Has it been done before in recent memory? Yes. But nearly impossible.

And if we get by NCState, we have to face the worst possible team Syracuse could face in the tourney ...the Syracuse Soul Destroyer Virginia Cavaliers

I hope it's not a harbinger of things to come, but probably is. Sorry for the downer post. I absolutely hope to eat crow

The thing about memories is that they are very unreliable. It's not nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in a season. Someone posted how many times SU has done it. I was surprised how many times.
As to UVa being soul crushing? We gave them possibly their #2 soul crushing defeat in the elite 8.

 

[Alsacs]

The thing about memories is that they are very unreliable. It's not nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in a season. Someone posted how many times SU has done it. I was surprised how many times.
As to UVa being soul crushing? We gave them possibly their #2 soul crushing defeat in the elite 8.

2016 team had 2 NBA first round draft picks, a first team All-ACC player that season, a senior defensive elite guard, and size to play.

2016 team had also played at Virginia that season and competed very hard against them in a tight game.
2021 got their doors blown off at Virginia this year.
It’s by far the worst matchup for us because they are so well coached and prepared they know exactly what to do against us.

 

[dollarbill44]

2016 team had 2 NBA first round draft picks, a first team All-ACC player that season, a senior defensive elite guard, and size to play.

2016 team had also played at Virginia that season and competed very hard against them in a tight game.
2021 got their doors blown off at Virginia this year.
It’s by far the worst matchup for us because they are so well coached and prepared they know exactly what to do against us.

I wasn't claiming we are going to win, although I will be optimistic if we get the chance, just that I don't consider them to be the "Syracuse soul crusher ". The chances of us winning that game with 9:00 remaining were lower than the chances of us winning a Thursday matchup this week.