The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[Alsacs]

I wasn't claiming we are going to win, although I will be optimistic if we get the chance, just that I don't consider them to be the "Syracuse soul crusher ". The chances of us winning that game with 9:00 remaining were lower than the chances of us winning a Thursday matchup this week.

I give us a 1 in 4 chance to beat Virginia.
If we played Florida State I would give us a 3 in 7 chance.

Virginia is the worst matchup for this team of any team in the conference.
They have shooters and a coach who will have his team completely ready for us.

 

[LoveShack]

2016 team had 2 NBA first round draft picks, a first team All-ACC player that season, a senior defensive elite guard, and size to play.

2016 team had also played at Virginia that season and competed very hard against them in a tight game.
2021 got their doors blown off at Virginia this year.
It’s by far the worst matchup for us because they are so well coached and prepared they know exactly what to do against us.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the 19-20 team got embarassed at home to Virginia to open the season and then faired ok the second time around on the road. So I'm saying there's a chance. But for the love of all things Orange (and my tv) please beat State.

 

[Alsacs]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the 19-20 team got embarassed at home to Virginia to open the season and then faired ok the second time around on the road. So I'm saying there's a chance. But for the love of all things Orange (and my tv) please beat State.

2020 Virginia isn't as good as 2021 Virginia.

We won that game last year. That is all I will say about that game.
It took Virginia being that bad offensively for us to win that game. They aren’t as bad offensively this season. They will carve up our zone our only chance would be to have a really good shooting night and force turnovers.

 

[upperdeck]

To me if we are gonna play our people lets just press them from the get go.. why lose by 20 playing slow. if we press and speed it up some of the things they do to us go away even if they beat the press we probably get more open shots.

 

[Alsacs]

To me if we are gonna play our people lets just press them from the get go.. why lose by 20 playing slow. if we press and speed it up some of the things they do to us go away even if they beat the press we probably get more open shots.

This is the correct take.
Speeding up Virginia confuses them and they wouldn’t expect it from us from the get go.
If JB went with this game plan it would help our chances to win. We aren’t going to hold Virginia to 43 Points in regulation like last year.

They score and shoot well this year.

 

[upperdeck]

This is the correct take.
Speeding up Virginia confuses them and they wouldn’t expect it from us from the get go.
If JB went with this game plan it would help our chances to win. We aren’t going to hold Virginia to 43 Points in regulation like last year.

They score and shoot well this year.

We have 2.5 centers.. we have 3 forwards he trusts and the 4th looked good before what ever happened and we have 3 guards.. We get down 10 anyway so starting with it wont be much different..

Of course none of the matters if we dont win game 1.

Would be nice to actually make some shots against them for once.. even last game we had open looks early, then we miss and pressure builds..

they have not handled he press well several times, maybe not being 20 down would help it and are we really gonna win 4 games in 4 days anyway. Shoot for winning 2.,

 

[Bayside44]

This is the correct take.
Speeding up Virginia confuses them and they wouldn’t expect it from us from the get go.
If JB went with this game plan it would help our chances to win. We aren’t going to hold Virginia to 43 Points in regulation like last year.

They score and shoot well this year.

It's gotta be the Kadary to the rack show, early on.

 

[Newhouser]

I feel really good about playing NC State. They only worry me with their 2 bigs.
Their guards can’t defend well if they play the usual rotations.

The 3 times thing is mental to me. If you are better than the opponent it doesn’t matter. They know what we are doing no matter what.

and they have won too many games in a row ( I think 5) they are not good enough to keep reeling off wins and are due to lose (at least in my convoluted mind).

 

[Orangemen]

So Drake?

Do they make sense being in the field at this point?

 

[FrancoPizza]

You realize NC St will probably come down to the last shot? It's amazing, when it comes to elimination scenarios, in games where we have 50/50 or slightly better odds we act like we're a lock to win.

 

[Cuse1055]

Regardless of if we need one or two wins, the ACC tourney did not set up well for us.

It's nearly impossible/improbable to beat a team 3 times in one season. Has it been done before in recent memory? Yes. But nearly impossible.

And if we get by NCState, we have to face the worst possible team Syracuse could face in the tourney ...the Syracuse Soul Destroyer Virginia Cavaliers

I hope it's not a harbinger of things to come, but probably is. Sorry for the downer post. I absolutely hope to eat crow

“Looks like someone has a case of the Monday’s.”

 

[Orijinal]

I wonder what those stats say if you remove all the games between teams that are clearly better... like all the times the best team in the league beats the worst team. How often does a team win 3 times when its just marginally better.. like 5pts or so?

I wonder the same thing ...

I really go by our history with UConn in our last few years in the Big East. They were always the better team, but in the years they beat us twice in the regular season, we gave it to them in the BE tourney

 

[orangecuse]

Which of course makes sense, because if you beat a team the first two times you played them, that's a pretty good indication you're better than they are!

Good find on the link

I think it can be...a pretty good indication for the most part, and as the stat above implies. However, I also think that the closeness of the games has to factor in to some degree whether a 2-0 team is truly better. It's one thing if a team beats its opponent twice rather convincingly and then meeting for a 3rd time, vs. a team the won both by narrow margins. Therefore, a bounce here or a bounce there, a call here or a call there, etc. can play a significant role in the outcome.

In regards to our two games this season against NCST, we won the first game by one possession, and in the 2nd game, it was a two possession game with under 5 to play.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The thing about UVA this year is this is their worst defensive team they have had since Bennett's 2nd year there when he went 16-15. So yes they score, but we should be able to put up points as well.

 

[Nicknack]

This is the correct take.
Speeding up Virginia confuses them and they wouldn’t expect it from us from the get go.
If JB went with this game plan it would help our chances to win. We aren’t going to hold Virginia to 43 Points in regulation like last year.

They score and shoot well this year.

I love your confidence. However, I'm just hoping that we get past NC State.

 

[Knicks411]

I think it can be...a pretty good indication for the most part, and as the stat above implies. However, I also think that the closeness of the games has to factor in to some degree whether a 2-0 team is truly better. It's one thing if a team beats its opponent twice rather convincingly and then meeting for a 3rd time, vs. a team the won both by narrow margins. Therefore, a bounce here or a bounce there, a call here or a call there, etc. can play a significant role in the outcome.

In regards to our two games this season against NCST, we won the first game by one possession, and in the 2nd game, it was a two possession game with under 5 to play.

For sure, I was speaking more generically than specific to our scenario.

If there was one team who won their 2 games against team x by 20 points and another team who won them by 5, I would certainly expect the first team to have a better win% in game 3 than the second team.

 

[pearl31]

2020 Virginia isn't as good as 2021 Virginia.

2021 Virginia just lost at home to 2021 nc st

 

[orangecuse]

I give us a 1 in 4 chance to beat Virginia.
If we played Florida State I would give us a 3 in 7 chance.

Virginia is the worst matchup for this team of any team in the conference.
They have shooters and a coach who will have his team completely ready for us.

I continue to remain miffed beyond all get out on how UVA continues to win games and conference titles in the manner in which they have. I have felt this way even when they had Guy, Jerome & company. When they had their 3 game losing streak a few weeks back, that's precisely the UVA team I generally see threw my lens. Call me crazy.

I guess, in the end, one can't argue with the results, and, IMO, it's a testament on Bennett's coaching ability, his system, discipline, etc., and consistently getting his players to play for him at 100% capacity just about all of the time.

 

[Orangezoo]

To me if we are gonna play our people lets just press them from the get go.. why lose by 20 playing slow. if we press and speed it up some of the things they do to us go away even if they beat the press we probably get more open shots.

Yeah I mentioned the same in this thread or another. It may not work but we know for a fact that the traditional version of our zone is like a buffet for their shooters.

 

[Orangezoo]

Rebound, make your 3s and put pressure on the ballhandlers. When UVA loses its usually as a result of the above successfully executed by the opponent. They don't like to come from behind. Once they get a good lead they put a vice grip like hold on their opponent which of course we as much as anyone have come back against.

 

[Orangezoo]

If we get to UVA the best guy to be an X factor is Griffin. He, like Malachi did, has the the ability to get hot while being guarded and score in bunches. That is part of what can get UVA on their heels. We gotta have Jesse too for Huff but it's our outside shooting that has to be on.

 

[Alsacs]

2021 Virginia just lost at home to 2021 nc st

That doesn’t change anything to what I said.

 

[upperdeck]

Rebound, make your 3s and put pressure on the ballhandlers. When UVA loses its usually as a result of the above successfully executed by the opponent. They don't like to come from behind. Once they get a good lead they put a vice grip like hold on their opponent which of course we as much as anyone have come back against.

The one issue that Joe and Buddy have is that once they get the guy on their hip they cant finish and turn the corner.. Then they end up with off balance shots or lose the ball.. Kadary is much stronger with the ball and is able to fight through that.. Buddy has responded by just using the back down move which is fine but he needs to also have some bail out when he isnt quite set to throw it back out instead of just shooting it anyway.. Joe still runs the plays like in HS where he would just elevate because most teams still only had a guy or 2 that could take his shot away, but now there are almost always 4 and sometimes all 5 guys who can take away his shot even when he does beat his single man. He either needs to figure out the floater or get stronger.

still Virg is the team that no matter how open we are the basket seems small

 

[Orangezoo]

The one issue that Joe and Buddy have is that once they get the guy on their hip they cant finish and turn the corner.. Then they end up with off balance shots or lose the ball.. Kadary is much stronger with the ball and is able to fight through that.. Buddy has responded by just using the back down move which is fine but he needs to also have some bail out when he isnt quite set to throw it back out instead of just shooting it anyway.. Joe still runs the plays like in HS where he would just elevate because most teams still only had a guy or 2 that could take his shot away, but now there are almost always 4 and sometimes all 5 guys who can take away his shot even when he does beat his single man. He either needs to figure out the floater or get stronger.

still Virg is the team that no matter how open we are the basket seems small

Hopefully the basket looks as big in Greensboro this year as it did last year vs UNC.

 

[MikeSU02]

I continue to remain miffed beyond all get out on how UVA continues to win games and conference titles in the manner in which they have. I have felt this way even when they had Guy, Jerome & company. When they had their 3 game losing streak a few weeks back, that's precisely the UVA team I generally see threw my lens. Call me crazy.

I guess, in the end, one can't argue with the results, and, IMO, it's a testament on Bennett's coaching ability, his system, discipline, etc., and consistently getting his players to play for him at 100% capacity just about all of the time.

In one of JB's interviews, didn't he say Bennett was one of the best coaches in the country, if not the best? I remember him giving very high praise.