The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[Orangezoo]

not me

Their guard play will be awful and we should be able to score on them with no problem. I would love to see them in our first or second game.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Their guard play will be awful and we should be able to score on them with no problem. I would love to see them in our first or second game.

Give me a team with no DNA relationship to our scheme ..

 

[cusefan88]

I still can't believe UCLA is safely in. Their resume is not good.

 

[Orangezoo]

I still can't believe UCLA is safely in. Their resume is not good.

It's a joke. Both UCLA and Louisville alike. Are behind us 5-10 spots or more in every metric.
It's the eye test as well.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

My thoughts...

The Ole Miss loss to LSU was the most important result for us. If they won the SEC conference, they would have jumped us for sure and maybe knocked us out.

The Utah State win is a concern. They were already in on some brackets and I suspect they are very close to us. If they lose to San Diego State, even though that would not be a bad loss, i think we will surely end up ahead of them. But if they win, yes, they could jump ahead of us. On the flip side, it is conceivable we could pass Colorado State now and that might well happen.

Georgetown is a concern. Creighton is getting in no matter what, so if the Hoyas win, someone in the field today loses their spot. Oregon State is, I think, the other school that we have to be worried about. Same situation. Ironic that 2 schools with prominent SU alums on the coaching staff could play big roles in eliminating Syracuse from the tournament.

Let’s focus now on the MAC tournament. 1 seed Toledo was quietly upset yesterday. I haven’t seen them seeded higher than 13, can’t imagine they have a shot at an at large bid, so that result is okay for us. It is actually good for us, in that Buffalo beat Akron, and only needs to play 5 seed Ohio now to win the MAC.

Our nuclear winter scenario is that

1) Utah State upsets San Diego State
2) Georgetown upsets Creighton
3) Oregon State upsets Oregon

We are in real danger if 3 teams penciled in the field today lose their spots this weekend. But even if that happens, we would have a win over the Big East champion and a win over the MAC champion. Those OOC wins are a big differentiator for us, I think, and would get us in over someone like Colorado State. But it would bring us perilously close to being dropped from the field.

Gotta root for MCW’s brother to get Creighton a win over our favorite old rival from the BE. Go San Diego State. I think Colorado beat USC so we want them to take out Oregon State.

Fun to have a stake in all those great games being played this weekend, Grateful college basketball is back and we are in the mix for a bid.

Lastly, as you watch the Colorado-Oregon State game, here is a nice article on the Thompson family to review. Ethan is a very good player (and like his dad, apparently a great person and student). Stevie Jr graduated last season and now Ethan is a senior. This is the end of the line for them.

Everyday Champions - The Thompson Family - Oregon State University Athletics

There is something unusual about the Oregon State Men's Basketball roster. The last name Thompson appears three times.

osubeavers.com

Utah state is in .. that league was going to get 2 anyway .. just Flip CSU out and Utah St in.. I don’t think it effects us

 

[STEVEHOLT]

It's a joke. Both UCLA and Louisville alike. Are behind us 5-10 spots or more in every metric.
It's the eye test as well.

Not a single pundits bracket / prediction means jack .. there is a certain hive mind they adhere to , to give each other a form of volume based legitimacy.. it’s all bs

 

[Dinkyspond]

Their guard play will be awful and we should be able to score on them with no problem. I would love to see them in our first or second game.

Do you think because Wright has seen the zone so much through the years that it would give them an advantage opposed to a coach from another team who has not coached against it?

 

[Orangezoo]

Do you think because Wright has seen the zone so much through the years that it would give them an advantage opposed to a coach from another team who has not coached against it?

It's possible. It's also been a while and as good as Wright is he doesn't have a group of kids who have played against it. Also he doesn't have is floor leader/coach on the floor either. That is tough.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

Tourney hopes could very well hinge on Georgetown losing tonight. The irony.

 

[Dinkyspond]

It's possible. It's also been a while and as good as Wright is he doesn't have a group of kids who have played against it. Also he doesn't have is floor leader/coach on the floor either. That is tough.

That is true, while he has seen it, his players haven't and that would be more important, they have not executed agsinst it before

 

[rrlbees]

Tourney hopes could very well hinge on Georgetown losing tonight. The irony.

I want gtown because it will help our resume and possibly seeding. I don’t see any way we are out regardless of what gtown does.

 

[Orangezoo]

Tourney hopes could very well hinge on Georgetown losing tonight. The irony.

Don't think so. We aren't last on the line at all.

 

[Orangezoo]

I want gtown because it will help our resume and possibly seeding. I don’t see anyway we are out regardless of what gtown does.

Exactly. They win and it's another tourney team we beat and another Q2 win.

 

[Cusefan0307]

not me, I'd be worried that Wright has seen the zone so much through the years that it might be some kind of advantage for them because he'd know exactly how to attack it. We seem to have good luck in the NCAAs with teams unfamilar with it

The Nova system is predicated on elite lead guard play. That guy is done for the season. They are wounded heading into March this season.

 

[20plus]

Utah state is in .. that league was going to get 2 anyway .. just Flip CSU out and Utah St in.. I don’t think it effects us

I agree with most of what you said but Colorado states profile was better than Utah State !

This Colorado state loses potentially notches them below us and I would rather battle with Utah St. résumé after last nights win then Colorado st. In that scenario could have both those teams below Syracuse in the end! I did not want Colorado State to win!

 

[20plus]

Exactly. They win and it's another tourney team we beat and another Q2 win.

In it of itself exclusively you are correct! But if those other bid stealers all prevailed then it could be trouble.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Boeheim to be on ESPNU radio on SiriusXM with Dan Dakich, not sure of time, he just teased it

 

[NineOneSeven]

Lunardi Midnight Update:

View attachment 197874

He has the same team listed twice in the next four out.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

He has the same team listed twice in the next four out.

The Fighting Nones.

Or the Flying Nones.

 

[Tom W.]

Who we should root for today:

3PM: Cincy over Wichita. The Shockers may be in anyway, but just in case - we just really want Houston to win the AAC

530PM: Houston over Memphis. See above

6PM: SDSU over Utah state. Again, Utah state is probably feeling good, but just in case. We want SDSU to win the MWC

630PM: Creighton over GTown. I’d we were safely in the field, GTown winning would hekp
Our metrics. But we don’t want the Hoyas to take a spot just in case.

730PM: Buffalo over Ohio. Buffalo has been a very good win OOC win. Them going to the tourney is good for us

1030PM Colorado over Oregon State. Bid stealer situation here.

We’ve had a pretty good week considering. We still have a few bullets to dodge today but I think If a few bid steals happen, it would be other teams losing their spots, not us

Morning everyone- I posted the newest bubble metrics over on TCW Bracketology - Picture below. As most of you are saying, it is starting to feel a lot more comfortable. The bubble is just not very strong.

Obviously, we love the continuing improvement of the Cuse metric ranks, and the 9 top-100 wins ( I know a lot of people ignore that stat, but since I have been really looking at the bubble the last few years, it seems to correlate pretty well with who gets in and who does not). Still have the glaring 1-7 Q1, but no one on the bubble is too terribly impressive there, and our overall 16-9 record is pretty decent.

I also wonder what the usually pretty important NCSOS will mean this year with all of the cancelled games and no fans at games. For instance, a 305 ranking from Drake would normally seem pretty damning, but who knows this year. Same for road/neutral record. It just seems less important than normal, but the committee may see it differently.

Anyways metrics are below, and looking forward to watching all the games on the rooting guide from jdubs30 quoted above.

 

[CorduroyG]

Exactly. They win and it's another tourney team we beat and another Q2 win.

i disagree. i dont wanna take any chances. we’re still a bubble team, i dont want any bid stealers.

 

[nycfan]

I want gtown because it will help our resume and possibly seeding. I don’t see any way we are out regardless of what gtown does.

Interesting take, but I don't want to take any chances about the "perfect storm" with all those bid stealers (listed above) winning. Oregon State just beat the top seed by double-digits last night -- they most certainly can beat Colorado. So even though we have a little wiggle room (one bid stealer shouldn't burn us), I think you are playing with fire rooting for Georgetown (and this has nothing to do with the rivalry -- I rooted for them last night).

 

[Trueblue25]

UB have any shot of becoming a quad 1 winning the MAC?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

i disagree. i dont wanna take any chances. we’re still a bubble team, i dont want any bid stealers.

I don't think they beat Creighton. Cuse Nation needs to show more love to Zegarowski than we did while recruiting him.

 

[NineOneSeven]

The Fighting Nones.

Or the Flying Nones.

How do you possibly have none listed? Even if there is no chance of that team making it, there are still two teams in those slots.