The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[blust2i3d4]

NCAA’s like drama. Cuse - Oregon State. JB vs the Thompson’s

I don't think so. My guess is that they will drop Michigan State and UCLA to first four. Both have very bad NET and RPI. Especially Michigan State like 70 and 93. If this is not Michigan State, NCAA would never consider it. Even Duke's 60 NET is a much better choice than Michigan State.

 

[sutomcat]

Yes. Palm had us ahead of Maryland and Ucla...but he's in the minority. We all should root for Houston and the hated Bonnie's tomorrow.

Wow, that was a wild day. And not a good one for us.

Palm has dropped us behind Maryland, UL and UCLA. He has Wichita State just ahead of us; they stay ahead even with their bad loss. Interesting to see such big late movements, all for teams that have not played in days.

Why? My speculation is that Palm floated some fake changes to mess with Lunardi and other bracketologists. My guess is that the new order is the real order. It is either that or someone on the committee leaked some info to him on the contents of the S curve.

Right now, he has VCU behind us. If they beat the Bonnies, you can expect them to move above us. Why is this significant? We are both 11 seeds and destined for play in games regardless.

It is important because SU and VCU are the last 2 at large teams in Palm’s bracket. If Houston loses, one more at large has to get booted, and if VCU wins as well, that at large team is going to be Syracuse.

Some random comments...

Everyone is assuming the NCAA is not going to rule on the Oklahoma State appeal and has them in the field. Will the NCAA deign to respond to the cheating Cowboys today?

The discrepancies between what Palm and Lunardi are projecting are pretty vast. As best I can determine, here are the last 8 at large in and the first 4 out for both, listed in order...

Palm	Lunardi
In
St Bonaventure	Maryland
Louisville	VCU
Maryland	Michigan State
Colorado State	UCLA
UCLA	Syracuse
Wichita State	Louisville
Syracuse	Drake
VCU	Utah State
Out
St Louis	St Louis
Boise State	Wichita State
Drake	Colorado State
Utah State	Ole Miss

Colorado State is in and doesn’t have a PIG for Pam and is not even in the field for Lunardi. Can’t imagine what their fans are thinking right now.

Palm has VCU as the last team in. Lunardi has team in and not in a PIG. If you believe him, heck, they might even survive losing the game to the Bonnies this afternoon.

Bottom line:

If we are in, we are playing in a play in game.

If Lunardi is right, we have no worries. We obviously won’t play UL because we play in the same league, even though in this screwed up year, where we were scheduled to play them twice, we never did.

Drake and Syracuse makes sense and would be a great story...a blue blood and the unknown from nowhere, popping out of a corn field.

If Palm is right, which he probably is, we need Houston to win. If Houston can’t beat Cincy, we need St Bonaventure to do us a solid and beat VCU. Both teams will be playing for a bid and there is no bigger motivation to win a game than that. Both will be playing against teams who are in.

If Cincinnati and VCU win, we are reduced to hoping the NCAA acts responsibly, or hoping to get a last minute COVID related bid, because we will be the first alternate. And we have to root for Lunardi to be right. You know his track record with Syracuse...

 

[kmart128]

Gonna be a nervous day tomorrow. I think we should be in and most do as well. But who knows where the committee had us before the upset. The committee has made more shocking moves with us in the past... there was years we were locks and we were left out and there was years we didnt have any business to be in and they put us in.

Lets go Houston!

 

[Cusesky8214]

Wow, that was a wild day. And not a good one for us.

Palm has dropped us behind Maryland, UL and UCLA. He has Wichita State just ahead of us; they stay ahead even with their bad loss. Interesting to see such big late movements, all for teams that have not played in days.

Why? My speculation is that Palm floated some fake changes to mess with Lunardi and other bracketologists. My guess is that the new order is the real order. It is either that or someone on the committee leaked some info to him on the contents of the S curve.

Right now, he has VCU behind us. If they beat the Bonnies, you can expect them to move above us. Why is this significant? We are both 11 seeds and destined for play in games regardless.

It is important because SU and VCU are the last 2 at large teams in Palm’s bracket. If Houston loses, one more at large has to get booted, and if VCU wins as well, that at large team is going to be Syracuse.

Some random comments...

Everyone is assuming the NCAA is not going to rule on the Oklahoma State appeal and has them in the field. Will the NCAA deign to respond to the cheating Cowboys today?

The discrepancies between what Palm and Lunardi are projecting are pretty vast. As best I can determine, here are the last 8 at large in and the first 4 out for both, listed in order...

Palm	Lunardi
In
St Bonaventure	Maryland
Louisville	VCU
Maryland	Michigan State
Colorado State	UCLA
UCLA	Syracuse
Wichita State	Louisville
Syracuse	Drake
VCU	Utah State
Out
St Louis	St Louis
Boise State	Wichita State
Drake	Colorado State
Utah State	Ole Miss

Colorado State is in and doesn’t have a PIG for Pam and is not even in the field for Lunardi. Can’t imagine what their fans are thinking right now.

Palm has VCU as the last team in. Lunardi has team in and not in a PIG. If you believe him, heck, they might even survive losing the game to the Bonnies this afternoon.

Bottom line:

If we are in, we are playing in a play in game.

If Lunardi is right, we have no worries. We obviously won’t play UL because we play in the same league, even though in this screwed up year, where we were scheduled to play them twice, we never did.

Drake and Syracuse makes sense and would be a great story...a blue blood and the unknown from nowhere, popping out of a corn field.

If Palm is right, which he probably is, we need Houston to win. If Houston can’t best Memphis, we need St Bonaventure to do us a solid and beat VCU. Both teams will be playing for a bid and there is no bigger motivation to win a game than that. Both will be playing against teams who are in.

If Memphis and VCU win, we are reduced to hoping the NCAA acts responsibly, or hoping to get a last minute COVID related bid, because we will be the first alternate. And we have to root for Lunardi to be right. You know his track record with Syracuse...

Memphis is out...u mean Cincy?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Wow, that was a wild day. And not a good one for us.

Palm has dropped us behind Maryland, UL and UCLA. He has Wichita State just ahead of us; they stay ahead even with their bad loss. Interesting to see such big late movements, all for teams that have not played in days.

Why? My speculation is that Palm floated some fake changes to mess with Lunardi and other bracketologists. My guess is that the new order is the real order. It is either that or someone on the committee leaked some info to him on the contents of the S curve.

Right now, he has VCU behind us. If they beat the Bonnies, you can expect them to move above us. Why is this significant? We are both 11 seeds and destined for play in games regardless.

It is important because SU and VCU are the last 2 at large teams in Palm’s bracket. If Houston loses, one more at large has to get booted, and if VCU wins as well, that at large team is going to be Syracuse.

Some random comments...

Everyone is assuming the NCAA is not going to rule on the Oklahoma State appeal and has them in the field. Will the NCAA deign to respond to the cheating Cowboys today?

The discrepancies between what Palm and Lunardi are projecting are pretty vast. As best I can determine, here are the last 8 at large in and the first 4 out for both, listed in order...

Palm	Lunardi
In
St Bonaventure	Maryland
Louisville	VCU
Maryland	Michigan State
Colorado State	UCLA
UCLA	Syracuse
Wichita State	Louisville
Syracuse	Drake
VCU	Utah State
Out
St Louis	St Louis
Boise State	Wichita State
Drake	Colorado State
Utah State	Ole Miss

Colorado State is in and doesn’t have a PIG for Pam and is not even in the field for Lunardi. Can’t imagine what their fans are thinking right now.

Palm has VCU as the last team in. Lunardi has team in and not in a PIG. If you believe him, heck, they might even survive losing the game to the Bonnies this afternoon.

Bottom line:

If we are in, we are playing in a play in game.

If Lunardi is right, we have no worries. We obviously won’t play UL because we play in the same league, even though in this screwed up year, where we were scheduled to play them twice, we never did.

Drake and Syracuse makes sense and would be a great story...a blue blood and the unknown from nowhere, popping out of a corn field.

If Palm is right, which he probably is, we need Houston to win. If Houston can’t best Memphis, we need St Bonaventure to do us a solid and beat VCU. Both teams will be playing for a bid and there is no bigger motivation to win a game than that. Both will be playing against teams who are in.

If Memphis and VCU win, we are reduced to hoping the NCAA acts responsibly, or hoping to get a last minute COVID related bid, because we will be the first alternate. And we have to root for Lunardi to be right. You know his track record with Syracuse...

Yup, Palm has us playing the Shockers in the PIG. We need Houston definitely to win. Not an easy Sunday for us.

 

[20plus]

Yes .. it reduces the number of spots by one .. but if you had SU not having a play in game , then the only way for them to drop a seed would be if you think Oregon state will be seeded higher than them ..

Wrong

 

[sutomcat]

Memphis is out...u mean Cincy?

Yes, corrected. Thanks.

 

[Orangefan1]

Gonna be a nervous day tomorrow. I think we should be in and most do as well. But who knows where the committee had us before the upset. The committee has made more shocking moves with us in the past... there was years we were locks and we were left out and there was years we didnt have any business to be in and they put us in.

Lets go Houston!

Cincy another garbage team

 

[richmondcuse03]

It makes perfect sense. They’ll be an 11 or 12. One of the perks of winning your tournament is bypassing the silly first four.

But two of the 16s play a play in game too no? They’re AQs...

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Cincy another garbage team

So many garbage teams yet we’re barely holding on.. so what does that say about us ?

 

[Orangezoo]

It would make more sense to me that the committee would be looking at the MWC/ American and A10 today as which conference gets the last two bids if the favorites lose. Palm has been moving us around a ton in just the last week.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Houston is a 13 pt favorite over Cincy .. so people are either overhyping the risk to us ... or we should have heavy betting action on Cincy

 

[OrangeXtreme]

But two of the 16s play a play in game too no? They’re AQs...

Bottom four AQ teams do the play-in game as 16 seeds.

Right now that's Mount St Mary's, Texas Southern, Norfolk St and App St.

Both Oregon St and Georgetown won AQ's last night. Since they can't be in a play-in game, they will seed in ahead of the bottom four At-Large teams.

If Cinci wins an AQ today, they will also seed in ahead of us.

EDIT: Right now Georgetown and Oregon State are 12's, while we're listed as an 11.

Rarely do you ever see P5 AQ teams seeded below the at large cut.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Houston is a 13 pt favorite over Cincy .. so people are either overhyping the risk to us ... or we should have heavy betting action on Cincy

I think Creighton and Colorado were both 9 points favorites

 

[Cuse69]

Yes, corrected. Thanks.

Why do you value palm so highly, I don't follow this stuff near what I used to but it is generally known he gets leaks and is in the know?

 

[jdubs30]

Houston is a 13 pt favorite over Cincy .. so people are either overhyping the risk to us ... or we should have heavy betting action on Cincy

Cincys best player got hurt yesterday and is out

 

[Tom W.]

Wow, that was a wild day. And not a good one for us.

Palm has dropped us behind Maryland, UL and UCLA. He has Wichita State just ahead of us; they stay ahead even with their bad loss. Interesting to see such big late movements, all for teams that have not played in days.

Why? My speculation is that Palm floated some fake changes to mess with Lunardi and other bracketologists. My guess is that the new order is the real order. It is either that or someone on the committee leaked some info to him on the contents of the S curve.

Right now, he has VCU behind us. If they beat the Bonnies, you can expect them to move above us. Why is this significant? We are both 11 seeds and destined for play in games regardless.

It is important because SU and VCU are the last 2 at large teams in Palm’s bracket. If Houston loses, one more at large has to get booted, and if VCU wins as well, that at large team is going to be Syracuse.

Some random comments...

Everyone is assuming the NCAA is not going to rule on the Oklahoma State appeal and has them in the field. Will the NCAA deign to respond to the cheating Cowboys today?

The discrepancies between what Palm and Lunardi are projecting are pretty vast. As best I can determine, here are the last 8 at large in and the first 4 out for both, listed in order...

Palm	Lunardi
In
St Bonaventure	Maryland
Louisville	VCU
Maryland	Michigan State
Colorado State	UCLA
UCLA	Syracuse
Wichita State	Louisville
Syracuse	Drake
VCU	Utah State
Out
St Louis	St Louis
Boise State	Wichita State
Drake	Colorado State
Utah State	Ole Miss

Colorado State is in and doesn’t have a PIG for Pam and is not even in the field for Lunardi. Can’t imagine what their fans are thinking right now.

Palm has VCU as the last team in. Lunardi has team in and not in a PIG. If you believe him, heck, they might even survive losing the game to the Bonnies this afternoon.

Bottom line:

If we are in, we are playing in a play in game.

If Lunardi is right, we have no worries. We obviously won’t play UL because we play in the same league, even though in this screwed up year, where we were scheduled to play them twice, we never did.

Drake and Syracuse makes sense and would be a great story...a blue blood and the unknown from nowhere, popping out of a corn field.

If Palm is right, which he probably is, we need Houston to win. If Houston can’t beat Cincy, we need St Bonaventure to do us a solid and beat VCU. Both teams will be playing for a bid and there is no bigger motivation to win a game than that. Both will be playing against teams who are in.

If Cincinnati and VCU win, we are reduced to hoping the NCAA acts responsibly, or hoping to get a last minute COVID related bid, because we will be the first alternate. And we have to root for Lunardi to be right. You know his track record with Syracuse...

I mean, that theory is possible. But Palm is the 85th raked bracketologist in the world according to his bracket matrix 5 year average. Lunardi is 55th. I now gets a team or two wrong every year, but I'm not sure why people elevate Palm so much above Lunardi.

 

[sutomcat]

Why do you value palm so highly, I don't follow this stuff near what I used to but it is generally known he gets leaks and is in the know?

I don’t know how he makes his picks but of the big name bracketologists, I have found his brackets have been the most accurate. He works for CBS and CBS is the prime TV network for the event, so many they provide him with some hints. Or maybe he is just smart.

Not sure, but he has established credibility for me.

You never know what the committee is going to do, and he is not always right.

At this point, I kind of hope he is wrong and SU can survive a win by Cincy and a win by VCU.

Krannert Executive Forum - Jerry Palm - Purdue Business

krannert.purdue.edu

 

[sutomcat]

I mean, that theory is possible. But Palm is the 85th raked bracketologist in the world according to his bracket matrix 5 year average. Lunardi is 55th. I now gets a team or two wrong every year, but I'm not sure why people elevate Palm so much above Lunardi.

My only method of evaluation of bracketologists is how they do projecting where Syracuse ends up. I don’t follow all their picks and really don’t care about ones not involving Syracuse.

This is where I think Palm has done a lot better work than Lunardi. As Joe himself admits, he is awful at projecting SU’s outcome.

As mentioned, I hope this time Joey is the one in the know regarding SU. And hopefully it doesn’t matter what happens with the games today!

 

[DoctorBombay]

My only method of evaluation of bracketologists is how they do projecting where Syracuse ends up. I don’t follow all their picks and really don’t care about ones not involving Syracuse.

This is where I think Palm has done a lot better work than Lunardi. As Joe himself admits, he is awful at projecting SU’s outcome.

As mentioned, I hope this time Joey is the one in the know regarding SU. And hopefully it doesn’t matter what happens with the games today!

I’m sorta torn on this season as a whole. The biggest reason I want us to make it is because it’ll selfishly pique my interest for another week. Otherwise, i really could care less.
When teams get “forfeited” wins and advance w/out playing, it kinda puts a damper on things. And mark my words, we haven’t seen the end of more forfeits in the Indy Bubble.
Now of course i want us to be in, i think we’re in regardless of today, and mostly for our player’s sake too. But if we’re not- i won’t be as devastated as in other years. JMHO

 

[Orangefan1]

It would be nice not to keep having these conversations every year. There lies the problem right there

 

[upperdeck]

I know has had them out before and they were in.. Has he ever had them solidly in and then they were out?

 

[Knicks411]

I mean, that theory is possible. But Palm is the 85th raked bracketologist in the world according to his bracket matrix 5 year average. Lunardi is 55th. I now gets a team or two wrong every year, but I'm not sure why people elevate Palm so much above Lunardi.

I think it's because there's a thought Lunardi "hates" Syracuse. So you then have to elevate the other primary guy.

 

[SU94]

I think it's because there's a thought Lunardi "hates" Syracuse. So you then have to elevate the other primary guy.

FWIW: The Athletic/Brian Bennett has us in the West Region, play-in game against Utah State. We are his final team in the field. So, Cincy could ruin that.

Yuck. Hate this (love this too).

 

[Knicks411]

FWIW: The Athletic/Brian Bennett has us in the West Region, play-in game against Utah State. We are his final team in the field. So, Cincy could ruin that.

Yuck. Hate this (love this too).

Going into yesterday, I thought there was a chance we could duck the first four game. After the results yesterday, I'm thinking the only way we arent playing Thursday is if we arent playing at all