The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[OrangeYaGladi]

I do think people are underestimating the possibility of some bad results today. I.e. bid stealers winning

Tried to warn people yesterday.

Today, I’m expecting good results from the SBu and Hou

 

[hoopsupstate]

I have to believe Houston must be better than they showed yesterday. They didn’t even look like a top 25 team.

 

[Orangezoo]

My only method of evaluation of bracketologists is how they do projecting where Syracuse ends up. I don’t follow all their picks and really don’t care about ones not involving Syracuse.

This is where I think Palm has done a lot better work than Lunardi. As Joe himself admits, he is awful at projecting SU’s outcome.

As mentioned, I hope this time Joey is the one in the know regarding SU. And hopefully it doesn’t matter what happens with the games today!

This year it makes sense things could be a little off the rails. Palm as a comp sci guy is usually numbers driven and thus does better with us where Joe is some numbers some his own formula whatever that is.

This year from a pure numbers standpoint, we sit really well positioned across all the different metrics and ratings. The two single negatives are road record and quad 1 record. Everything else is strong.So if Jerry is the right one on us then it's crystal clear that quad 1 and road/neutral record is the key.

 

[Orangezoo]

I have to believe Houston must be better than they showed yesterday. They didn’t even look like a top 25 team.

Memphis turned that game into a playground brawl. If that is Hardaway's style I have zero doubt he is as dirty as they come in recruiting too.

Houston should fare much better in a real basketball game today.

 

[Tom W.]

Happy Selection Sunday! Just posted the newest bubble metrics over on TCW Bracketology for those interested. Picture below. Cuse still has those great metric numbers, but also still have that annoying 1-7 in Q1. It is just hard for me to picture the committe not putting us in the first four because of that number. We shall see. Go Bonnies, go Houston!

 

[upperdeck]

This year it makes sense things could be a little off the rails. Palm as a comp sci guy is usually numbers driven and thus does better with us where Joe is some numbers some his own formula whatever that is.

This year from a pure numbers standpoint, we sit really well positioned across all the different metrics and ratings. The two single negatives are road record and quad 1 record. Everything else is strong.So if Jerry is the right one on us then it's crystal clear that quad 1 and road/neutral record is the key.

its also a yr where teams had issues with schedules because of travel and cancellations so rewarding teams because they lucked out with more shots at quad 1 is bad.. they need to really do their job more this year to look at teams and think about cause an effect of the issues and not just hide behind flawed numbers..

 

[Sherman20]

Wow, that was a wild day. And not a good one for us.

Palm has dropped us behind Maryland, UL and UCLA. He has Wichita State just ahead of us; they stay ahead even with their bad loss. Interesting to see such big late movements, all for teams that have not played in days.

Why? My speculation is that Palm floated some fake changes to mess with Lunardi and other bracketologists. My guess is that the new order is the real order. It is either that or someone on the committee leaked some info to him on the contents of the S curve.

Right now, he has VCU behind us. If they beat the Bonnies, you can expect them to move above us. Why is this significant? We are both 11 seeds and destined for play in games regardless.

It is important because SU and VCU are the last 2 at large teams in Palm’s bracket. If Houston loses, one more at large has to get booted, and if VCU wins as well, that at large team is going to be Syracuse.

Some random comments...

Everyone is assuming the NCAA is not going to rule on the Oklahoma State appeal and has them in the field. Will the NCAA deign to respond to the cheating Cowboys today?

The discrepancies between what Palm and Lunardi are projecting are pretty vast. As best I can determine, here are the last 8 at large in and the first 4 out for both, listed in order...

Palm	Lunardi
In
St Bonaventure	Maryland
Louisville	VCU
Maryland	Michigan State
Colorado State	UCLA
UCLA	Syracuse
Wichita State	Louisville
Syracuse	Drake
VCU	Utah State
Out
St Louis	St Louis
Boise State	Wichita State
Drake	Colorado State
Utah State	Ole Miss

Colorado State is in and doesn’t have a PIG for Pam and is not even in the field for Lunardi. Can’t imagine what their fans are thinking right now.

Palm has VCU as the last team in. Lunardi has team in and not in a PIG. If you believe him, heck, they might even survive losing the game to the Bonnies this afternoon.

Bottom line:

If we are in, we are playing in a play in game.

If Lunardi is right, we have no worries. We obviously won’t play UL because we play in the same league, even though in this screwed up year, where we were scheduled to play them twice, we never did.

Drake and Syracuse makes sense and would be a great story...a blue blood and the unknown from nowhere, popping out of a corn field.

If Palm is right, which he probably is, we need Houston to win. If Houston can’t beat Cincy, we need St Bonaventure to do us a solid and beat VCU. Both teams will be playing for a bid and there is no bigger motivation to win a game than that. Both will be playing against teams who are in.

If Cincinnati and VCU win, we are reduced to hoping the NCAA acts responsibly, or hoping to get a last minute COVID related bid, because we will be the first alternate. And we have to root for Lunardi to be right. You know his track record with Syracuse...

What the heck? Palm had us as the first 11 seed yesterday. What is going on? None of these teams he’s moving are even playing?

 

[Knicks411]

its also a yr where teams had issues with schedules because of travel and cancellations so rewarding teams because they lucked out with more shots at quad 1 is bad.. they need to really do their job more this year to look at teams and think about cause an effect of the issues and not just hide behind flawed numbers..

I can just think of all the mid major teams who dont get nearly the shots we do at Q1 games (especially at home) in a normal year reading this and losing their minds

 

[Sherman20]

Gonna be a nervous day tomorrow. I think we should be in and most do as well. But who knows where the committee had us before the upset. The committee has made more shocking moves with us in the past... there was years we were locks and we were left out and there was years we didnt have any business to be in and they put us in.

Lets go Houston!

Disagree. There were never any years we got in when we didn’t deserve it. The year we really got screwed was 2007.

 

[orangenauburn]

I'm still in the belief that the bracketologists have been over valuing the non P5 and probably the Pac12, while undervaluing the ACC

We come in as a 10 seed

 

[Bball44]

SU vs Drake might generate some buzz since JB commented on their schedule.

 

[upperdeck]

I can just think of all the mid major teams who dont get nearly the shots we do at Q1 games (especially at home) in a normal year reading this and losing their minds

yup.. but I also think its bad to reward teams who get tons of shots and do little with it.. is MSU the team with some nice wins but also huge stretches of awful play?

 

[Knicks411]

Disagree. There were never any years we got in when we didn’t deserve it. The year we really got screwed was 2007.

If you go by the bracket matrix, in 2016, we were behind like 3-4 teams that didnt make it. (I think, it's a little hard for me to follow)

2018, we were behind 3 teams as well

 

[upperdeck]

I'm still in the belief that the bracketologists have been over valuing the non P5 and probably the Pac12, while undervaluing the ACC

We come in as a 10 seed

most of the crazy results have been a result of teams playing badly more than teams playing well.. Gtown played a nice game yesterday but Creighton looked awful.

 

[Knicks411]

yup.. but I also think its bad to reward teams who get tons of shots and do little with it.. is MSU the team with some nice wins but also huge stretches of awful play?

A lot of the years we are on the bubble that's our case!

 

[upperdeck]

A lot of the years we are on the bubble that's our case!

you equate losing to bad play and thats not always true..

 

[OHIORANGES]

Tough day for me worrying about us.
Rooting against Cincy, where I live & they are my 3rd favorite team.
Orange; The OSU; Cincy.
They are not a garbage team as some of you think.

 

[orange79]

SU vs Drake might generate some buzz since JB commented on their schedule.

What did he say?

Because, quite frankly, Drake's SOS is brutal. 202 overall (and 309 OOC), compared to 43 (90) for SU.

 

[im4cuse]

Hoping CBS goes for the cheap thrill of having Biden mention us in his bracket. They love that segment.

 

[Knicks411]

you equate losing to bad play and thats not always true..

Yeah to be fair I was more thinking the nice wins part than necessarily the bad play part.

But I could say the same thing about MSU I guess

 

[Bball44]

What did he say?

Because, quite frankly, Drake's SOS is brutal. 202 overall (and 309 OOC), compared to 43 (90) for SU.

That Drake shouldn't get an at-large with 16 Quad 4 wins

 

[orange79]

So, here's a slightly OT question:

Since the entire tournament is going to be held in Indianapolis, what are they going to call the regions this year?

 

[orange79]

That Drake shouldn't get an at-large with 16 Quad 4 wins

They have 11, but I get your point. Thanks.

 

[Sherman20]

If you go by the bracket matrix, in 2016, we were behind like 3-4 teams that didnt make it. (I think, it's a little hard for me to follow)

2018, we were behind 3 teams as well

That doesn’t mean we didn’t “deserve” it. These amateur bracketologists are just that...amateurs. In 2016, I thought we would get in and def deserved to get in. Texas A&M and Uconn wins at the B4A and beating Duke on the road were all better wins than the other bubble teams that year. Plus other key ACC wins.

 

[syr6987]

Andy Katz had us in the field of 64