The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[jdubs30]

As much as I thought I was going to stay out of most of the bubble talk this year, it's just too much fun! Put together a metrics chart over on TCW Bracketology to see where we stand. It is organized based on the bracket matrix rankings and current metrics.

What immediately stands out- our metrics and advanced metrics are good and getting better. Our Q1 wins at 1-7 and Road/Neutral record of 3-8 are not so good. Nine top-100 wins is tied for the most among bubble teams. So, definitely some things going for us, but also some significant drawbacks. Check out full chart and blog link below:

View attachment 197813

Anyone wondering why Louisville is ahead of us, this makes it pretty obvious

 

[upperdeck]

if you play in a conf like the MW where you get 5-6-7- chances to win road game your Net metrics go way up. sure on any given night they can win games against a P5.. but on most nights the only way they can lose is to play poorly and the other team play way better than normal . in the ACC you only got 2-3 of those chances to get road wins and like SU we dont get to play all those teams in a yr on the road or all the better teams at home.

 

[pearl31]

Anyone wondering why Louisville is ahead of us, this makes it pretty obvious

eh the 2 teams are pretty identical when you look at that

 

[HoustonCuse]

My paranoid SU DNA has me wondering if JAB's (cranky, unlikeable, pissy) disposition this year will allow for the Selection Committee, which is made up of 10 HUMANS, to look at each other and say, "let's turn the screws on this SOB ... first team OUT!" Athletic Directors crave control and this would likely earn them a few back slaps from colleagues in the coming months.

There is no one in the sport who did not read about thoughts on the Jalen Johnson and Matt Gutierrez. Then the Bryant game too, although that was so long ago, I doubt many outside of CNY remember. Both found their way to the top line on ESPN's headlines.

I'd love to be wrong.

Hate drives interest. Just look at our entire national media and political process. If they think JB is a monster, they’ll put us in to drive outrage clicks.

 

[JoeyZ]

As much as I thought I was going to stay out of most of the bubble talk this year, it's just too much fun! Put together a metrics chart over on TCW Bracketology to see where we stand. It is organized based on the bracket matrix rankings and current metrics.

What immediately stands out- our metrics and advanced metrics are good and getting better. Our Q1 wins at 1-7 and Road/Neutral record of 3-8 are not so good. Nine top-100 wins is tied for the most among bubble teams. So, definitely some things going for us, but also some significant drawbacks. Check out full chart and blog link below:

View attachment 197813

I did something similar by hand this morning, and I keep staring at it and seeing how we have the best Net, 2nd best KenPom, 2nd best SAG, and best BPI amongst all these teams. How we are not more discussed as having the last byes more than being last four in is actually besides me. These types of metrics were put in place to guard against bias for bigger name schools and conferences. You can't only choose to use them when it helps a smaller school or conference.

 

[upperdeck]

if you really look at teams we are much closer to top of last 4 byes than last 4 in.

 

[upperdeck]

utah-col st knocks one out.
boise done
xavier done
st johns done

ole miss loses and done

the only ones that can move are memphis and SH.

gtown can screw everything up though

 

[690West]

Lunardi just moved us up to the top of the "last 4 in" list.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

We've moved up to the top of the 'Last Four In" line...

If UVa can't play, we could get a bye.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Cuse is either getting a 10 seed or closing up shop due to COVID

 

[Tom W.]

Here is what I am thinking in terms of rooting guide for today. This includes metrics and bubble teams that we want to lose. Obviously, you could dig even deeper into metrics numbers, but these seem like the big ones on the slate today IMO. Did I forget anything? Go Orange!

12pm- USF over Wichita St

6pm Georgetown over Seton Hall. (This is technically best for us right now IMO, but would open up a bid steal. Then again, so could Seton Hall. Obviously, this all depends on Creighton or UConn winning the BET).

7:30pm Buffalo over Akron

9pm UNC over FL St (We want UNC to win the ACC at this point)

9pm LSU over Ole Miss (Big one here IMO)

12am- Colorado St over Utah St

 

[jncuse]

I made this point in an other thread.

The general trend that I have observed on this board is the following; many tend to overrate what is needed to get in at this time of year. If you look at the years we have squeezed in on March 15th, we actually did less than people thought we needed to do on February 10th.

I bring up this point from post #3 in the thread. Not that we are a "lock", but we are in good shape and we didn't have to accomplish as much after February 10th as we thought. Even after posting this, I still fell into the same trap of overselling what we needed to do a few pages later in the thread, although not overselling as much as others.

I guess the point to remember is we are fighting against other mediocre teams and they do mediocre things around us. 2017, or was it 2018, was the one year where the bubble really strengthened as we got closer, and we were probably last team out (against Kansas St)

 

[690West]

 

[Tom W.]

I bring up this point from post #3 in the thread. Not that we are a "lock", but we are in good shape and we didn't have to accomplish as much after February 10th as we thought. Even after posting this, I still fell into the same trap of overselling what we needed to do a few pages later in the thread, although not overselling as much as others.

I guess the point to remember is we are fighting against other mediocre teams and they do mediocre things around us. 2017, or was it 2018, was the one year where the bubble really strengthened as we got closer, and we were probably last team out (against Kansas St)

This. I think we get caught up in the frustrations of what we remember from the season. We all expect better, and we forget that other teams struggle too (especially this year).

 

[NineOneSeven]

So classis this would happen too. The drama leading up to our tournaments the last decade is really something else.

 

[Briancuse]

So classis this would happen too. The drama leading up to our tournaments the last decade is really something else.

The bball Gods figured we didn't have enough drama, so they took it up a notch.

 

[Knicks411]

If anything the fact that there’s no Duke, UK, etc helps us. This all about making money - the committe would rather have a brand like Syracuse in than 3 MWC teams.

the committee is less worried about “screwing over Boeheim” than they are getting the most eyeballs possible on the tournament - and Colorado State doesn’t bring that

I read thoughts like this, but how much does it really matter?

The current TV contract with CBS/Turner is in place through 2032. And even if we make it in, we're going to be favored to play one or two games max. I can accept our game would (I guess?) draw slightly higher ratings than chose your MWC team or whatever, but really by how much? Is increasing the tv ratings for an early round game in 2021 by like 5% going to matter one bit when the NCAA is trying to renegotiate the tv deal in 8 or 9 years? I really struggle to believe that.

Granted, higher ratings are better than lower ratings. Obviously But I just don't see it being that big of a deal

 

[upperdeck]

We've moved up to the top of the 'Last Four In" line...

If UVa can't play, we could get a bye.

View attachment 197827

so his Bracketology here is updated but the one on the ESPN link is not?

best thing is both col and utah cant go past us in his mind and most of the teams close are done. if Ole miss loses that would put 5 teams behind us that SH has to win and climb past by beating Gtown. memphis/SMU have to go past like 8

 

[OrangeXtreme]

so his Bracketology here is updated but the one on the ESPN link is not?

I posted the one Lunardi just tweeted at 10:40 AM.

 

[upperdeck]

I posted the one Lunardi just tweeted at 10:40 AM.

i see that.. I just wonder why they are too lazy to actually update it on their main site.. i assumed it was his info they were using since he rights the lead lines..

 

[ORRange]

Hard to figure out, do we want Seton Hall or Gtown to win? I'm thinking SH and then root for them to lose to Creighton/uconn.

 

[Chris02M]

Hard to figure out, do we want Seton Hall or Gtown to win? I'm thinking SH and then root for them to lose to Creighton/uconn.

georgetown as painful as it is

 

[upperdeck]

we want GT to win and lose in finals.. it would stop SH and be a bad loss on top of it.

 

[Chris02M]

likely have some mountain west play in action as whoever wins between colorado state and utah state is in and loser is out

 

[Tom W.]

we want GT to win and lose in finals.. it would stop SH and be a bad loss on top of it.

Yep. Would also be good for the Cuse metric numbers with our H2H win over Gtown. Nothing substantial, but I am a "every little bit helps" kind of guy.

Definitely need GTown to lose to Creighton/UConn after though.