The balanced view

[capeorange]

I love the idea of Melo being around the program, but let's face facts -- his son is a quality recruit, but hardly a program changer. He also plays the same position as Moore, who is possibly the second best player on this year's team, with JJ being unavailable. And all three of them [including JJ] play the same position, so something has to give.

There's also a strong likelihood that the roster undergoes mass attrition, whether Red stays or is let go. Davis, Lampkin, and Carlos all expend their eligibility. Would it be a surprise if Bell portals out [I actually expect this to be the outcome after the season, given rumblings]? Also seems unlikely that the trio of Moore / Anthony / JJ all suit up next season. And Freeman could opt to go pro; kid is playing pretty well, and is projected as a first round pick.

Meaning that next season has the look of a rebuilding year -- exactly when our program / Red can't afford to have one. We still don't have a proven PG -- I have high hopes for Fennel, but still a risk. Sure, we could hit the portal hard, but that's no guarantee given how "well" that worked for us this year.

Great post! Nothing but the facts.

 

[Sherman20]

Then please tell us, in detail. why it is so important.

Is it money? Is Carmelo going to heavily invest in NIL and facilities for SU? Will that investment continue after his son leaves in a year or two? Is he going to funnel 5-star players to SU? Endow scholarships or coaching/staff positions?

I'm not singling you out kcsu , I'm just continuing my new crusade to get people to actually be transparent instead of coyly alluding to insider things that are "enormous" but won't be spoken of. That s h! t has driven me nuts for years and its gotta stop.

Yes, it seems obvious that it’s money/ donations. Specifically to help our collectives with NIL. Or possibly some upgrades to the Melo Center.

 

[Nicknack]

I appreciate you trying.

Almost none of that landed with me, but I do genuinely appreciate the attempt.

That's hilarious because that's 100% how I felt after reading a well thought out and written post by Consigliere. I still think we're stuck right now in a dirty toilet bowl. We need a BIG shift as a program. Big changes, big swings, big expectations... let's go big Cuse.

Edit: hell, let's just go medium (that would be an upgrade to what we're doing now)

 

[Sherman20]

We played the team that was the pre-season projected 10th best team in the B10 on a neutral court and lost by 27 to a team that let up on the gas pedal against us. This was not a fluke, this is the state of Syracuse basketball. The light at the end of the tunnel is there alright, but it's an oncoming train.

Who cares where Maryland was projected? That’s irrelevant now. Right now, they’re a top
15 team in KenPom and other metrics.

 

[kcsu]

As much as I’m frustrated with the team and coaching, I agree with you on this post. But only IF we know that what you are saying is true that Melo and Co would leave with a different coach. What if it’s the other way around? What if they agree with the people who believe Red is a very nice guy who struggles with being the head coach?

If in fact they are ok with a new coach that obviously changes everything. However I seriously doubt that is the case.

 

[Nicknack]

We scored 6pts and had 6 turnovers in the first 7min yesterday. There was never a 16min timeout, but Red didn’t call a timeout until there was 12:56 left. He just watched the whole thing unfold and did absolutely nothing. It’s hard to imagine any other coach going that long without a timeout, especially considering the 16min TO never came.

We were lucky to lose by only 27 points to Maryland. I truly mean that. They really could have had us by 40 at halftime. They played almost as ugly as us for the first several minutes of the game. Unfortunately for us, they're a much better team and eventually got going. We don't have a "got going" button.

 

[Newhouser]

If in fact they are ok with a new coach that obviously changes everything. However I seriously doubt that is the case.

I never knew Red and Melo were so tight. If it's a JB connection, that will be broken when Red gets canned next year (as I don't think White or Anthony are major game changers), so we are basically tapping Melos wallet for as long as we can? Just confused by any parent who would subject their child to this program in its current state.

 

[DilemaCuse]

I love the idea of Melo being around the program, but let's face facts -- his son is a quality recruit, but hardly a program changer. He also plays the same position as Moore, who is possibly the second best player on this year's team, with JJ being unavailable. And all three of them [including JJ] play the same position, so something has to give.

There's also a strong likelihood that the roster undergoes mass attrition, whether Red stays or is let go. Davis, Lampkin, and Carlos all expend their eligibility. Would it be a surprise if Bell portals out [I actually expect this to be the outcome after the season, given rumblings]? Also seems unlikely that the trio of Moore / Anthony / JJ all suit up next season. And Freeman could opt to go pro; kid is playing pretty well, and is projected as a first round pick.

Meaning that next season has the look of a rebuilding year -- exactly when our program / Red can't afford to have one. We still don't have a proven PG -- I have high hopes for Fennel, but still a risk. Sure, we could hit the portal hard, but that's no guarantee given how "well" that worked for us this year.

Cant have a rebuilding year in Year 3 when there is no tournament in Years 1 and 2

I mean its one thing were you have some success, put it all together, mass exodus to the draft and need to rebuild but not in Year 3 when 1 and 2 arent special or sub standard. Year 2 rebuild cannot be the mindset if looking to be coach beyond year 3.

 

[MikeSU02]

I think we have adapted poorly to the new normal in college basketball. We vastly underestimated the size of the NIL war chest we needed. We took a conservative approach by waiting until players entered the portal before reaching out. Yes, I know that's the rule but the high profile transfers are locked in to their new destination including compensation before their names are released. We were breaking in a new head coach who, though universally acclaimed as the right man for the job by the coaching community, media and search firm we apparently surreptitiously hired, was expected to have some type of learning curve then lost his lieutenant to a HC job of his own. Now we're in a perfect storm where we may not have a single player who is performing to their previous levels and have our best player out for what looks to be a longer than expected injury issue.

Add in what turned out to be a bear of a non conference schedule and we all see the results.

There are reasons for optimism. The Kline hire is making us much more proactive in the transfer market. There is already a list of potential candidates. HS recruiting is looking very good and Englestad is using his foreign connections to link us with potentially lower cost high end talent from overseas. And Melo sounds like he is all in to assist in the fund raising efforts to advance NIL needs.

Expect a very busy offseason with at least three open scholarships, sure to be more with attrition. Also expect us to fill at least one of the two available assistant coaching positions. Not sure if Red was being a good soldier saying he could get by on the old limit of three but most P4s have 4 or the full allotment of 5 assistant coaches now.

Going to be a tough couple of months, and no false illusions here, but I look forward to seeing this team improve and, though it's not easy, can still see some light at the end of the tunnel.

IMO, this isn't balanced. It's selective. You are looking at this like this a 1.5 season evaluation. This is now going on for over a decade. It is a continuation of the end of the JB era. The school chose to do a continuation hire, they have to be evaluated on it.

There is no perfect storm, this is what college basketball is. The non con is totally fine. There is no bear of a non con. This is a normal schedule we should have.

Kline is TBD.

There is no evidence that Red is a good coach because when he had better players he had a better record. There is no one as good as Judah and Maliq on this team.

Recruiting is now HS/First Year + Portal In - Portal Out. It doesn't matter if Red can get HS recruits if he cannot handle the portal.

A "busy" off season is literally what every single program will be having, especially the P5 programs.

It hasn't been a tough couple of months, it's been a tough decade+ and limiting your evaluation to the last 1.5 years is magically waving away just how long we've been on this road.

The data has been and is readily available. The light has been blinking red for years (no pun intended).

Again, let's just go back to what it really is:

We allowed JB to stay on way too long. We thought we had to hire Red. For financial or other reasons, we are now on a decade+ downslide, but we have to eat it with Red for another year before this university thinks it can make a move.

That's where we are. It's fine to just say "it's going to suck until SU fixes this, if they can"

 

[kcsu]

Adding in Melos kid the NC stud retaining Donnie, Choppa, Petar and possibly JJ would be a solid foundation. With the help of fresh NIL money and our new GM making the call on who we spend money on I believe we land a solid 5 and PG. If Red can't make a go of it with this new roster than JW will make a change. No inside information but this is what I believe is going to happen.

 

[PoppyHart]

Adding in Melos kid the NC stud retaining Donnie, Choppa, Petar and possibly JJ would be a solid foundation. With the help of fresh NIL money and our new GM making the call on who we spend money on I believe we land a solid 5 and PG. If Red can't make a go of it with this new roster than JW will make a change. No inside information but this is what I believe is going to happen.

Do you still believe Red has the requisite coaching (not recruiting) skills to get the program to where it needs to be?

 

[baggerbob]

Adding in Melos kid the NC stud retaining Donnie, Choppa, Petar and possibly JJ would be a solid foundation. With the help of fresh NIL money and our new GM making the call on who we spend money on I believe we land a solid 5 and PG. If Red can't make a go of it with this new roster than JW will make a change. No inside information but this is what I believe is going to happen.

If next year isn't a top 20 team under Red the program from the fan's prospective is finished.
Terrible year this year and keeping Red is a sure way to lose the fan base completely.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Who cares where Maryland was projected? That’s irrelevant now. Right now, they’re a top
15 team in KenPom and other metrics.

Remember when we were those things? Over a decade ago.

 

[wiCuse]

Adding in Melos kid the NC stud retaining Donnie, Choppa, Petar and possibly JJ would be a solid foundation. With the help of fresh NIL money and our new GM making the call on who we spend money on I believe we land a solid 5 and PG. If Red can't make a go of it with this new roster than JW will make a change. No inside information but this is what I believe is going to happen.

So it's also your opinion that Team Melo selected SU because of Red? I have to imagine given his influence, Melo would be consulted about any HC change. We will be fine with or without Petar, Choppa and JJ.

 

[kcsu]

Do you still believe Red has the requisite coaching (not recruiting) skills to get the program to where it needs to be?

I'm not sure. If I had to make a bet, I would say 75% he doesn't but, in my opinion, he did do a good job last year. Not great by any measure but good considering it was his first year and he inherited a complete mess. This year was cooked before is started. Why? Because he made a bad call on Dry Rub and missed out on his top PG target. Replace Lampkin with a real center, Land the PG he wanted keep JJ healthy and we are not having this conversation. Going forward let the GM decide who we pursue add some new thinking with new coaches increase NIL with Melos help and everything changes. Still is Red a good x and o guy. I don't think so. By the way neither was JB his first few years but he sure could recruit. Players win games more than coaching and i do believe that Red can bring in good players.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Replace Lampkin with a real center, Land the PG he wanted keep JJ healthy and we are not having this conversation.

That was basically last year's team with Donnie Freeman instead of Justin Taylor. They were not even close to the bubble and he completely missed on the single most important position he had to replace. If Freeman didn't come here, he could have slotted Maliq Brown in and I don't think that would have been much of a downgrade. Lampkin is whatever, a big expensive stop-gap who can't play defense.

 

[Cuseball]

What if Red is fired. Melos kid goes to USC, the 5 star bolts, Donnie and Choppa transfer, and Melo closes the door on Syracuse because he no longer has any connections?
Save this post. Because the above is pretty much exactly what will happen.
The other scenario is Red is retained. One or more new assistant coaches are added.
Melos kid, Donnie, Choppa, 5 star and two studs out of the portal are added because Melo steps up with NIL money. Syracuse is relevant because of Team Melo on Social media. His circle is at games...
There is a buzz about SU again. We are getting a basketball version of what CU got in football.
If Red is gone this is gone as well.
I see your point but Personally I lean towards giving Red one more year in order to Keep Melo and all he brings .

You would never fire Autry without first speaking with Melo. I would assume if Melo had a say in the next coach then It would be fine. Melo is smart and he can see what is happening to the team and what Autry offers as coach. Get Melo on board and move on from this failed experiment.

 

[Scooch]

Yes, it seems obvious that it’s money/ donations. Specifically to help our collectives with NIL. Or possibly some upgrades to the Melo Center.

Yeah it *seems* obvious but I don’t want to assume, and no one is saying, so here we are. Shrug.

 

[djcon57]

Yeah it *seems* obvious but I don’t want to assume, and no one is saying, so here we are. Shrug.

Yep it seemed obvious that we were hiring Autry so we would keep the boosters that supported JB as well.

How'd that go.

 

[Scooch]

To clarify, my intent using that phrase is that expecting a turnaround simply by changing coaches is a fool’s errand. There are several factors that I listed that contributed to the current challenges. All must be addressed to realistically expect a marked improvement.
The AD is not reluctant to make changes, but to his credit he endeavors to provide the incumbent everything that Coach feels is necessary to succeed within the financial constraints of the department and often even beyond. We saw exactly that scenario with Dino.
Had we hired Fran Brown without the commitment to NIL support, facilities investment, enhanced support staff among other factors, we would probably be chastising Wildhack for hiring an unproven assistant.

That’s fair. Two points (1) no one is suggesting support that is a surprise. NIL, funding for facilities, etc. Fran had a well detailed plan on how to address those things from minute one of his tenure. Autry, apparently, did not. And we heard that Autry was uncomfortable asking people for money. That’s simply not gonna cut it.

(2) NIL is a part of acquiring talent, but it doesn’t replace evaluating talent properly. Autry’s track record on that front is poor, in my opinion. This has to improve.

 

[Scott11]

I'm as concerned and as frustrated as the rest of us. But I would let Red have one more year.

Simply put, this season was torpedoed when we swung and missed in the portal with poor talent evaluation. None of these guys can play to a level that we are looking for. Red said he wants to play a faster, high pressured defensive game and he spent the most NIL on an out of shape center who can't score, rebound or play defense. Insane. Carlos clearly was a second choice at the 1 and does not have the talent to play in the ACC. Davis has had a couple of solid games against mostly lousy competition. Taylor, McCloud and sadly Westry are sunk costs with almost no return. I don't know what coach would win with this roster. Yes Red was mostly responsible for the roster construction but Kline was not. Hopefully Kline can improve our talent analysis next year in the portal. I think he can. It can't be worse. And maybe Red will be more successful with a good roster.

Make no mistake Kiyan and White will not turn the program around by themselves. I don't think either of them will be as good as freshman as Donnie is right now. But we presently have the highest ranked class we have had in recent years. And the Melo factor remains. I think it is noteworthy that much to many of our surprise, Kiyan/Melo didn't bring any help with him as far as recruits. What I hope that means is that Melo is planning on helping out with the portal. I can't fathom a situation where he sits back and lets Kiyan start his college career with no talent to help him. That hope, and admittedly it is a hope, is worth giving Red one more year imo. I want to preserve the 4 recruits and the opportunity for us to improve in the portal, hopefully with Melo's assistance.

Plus aside from the portal disasters, everything has gone wrong. JJ got hurt and while we all know he is not a superstar, losing 19 ppg would hurt any team and plus it made Red believe he has to play Carlos insanely high minutes. Many of us had concerns about Bell and his defense/attitude/lack of rebounding, but who foresaw him forgetting how to shoot? He looks miserable and I think he will look for a new home. This staff is tired of babysitting him.

This is the worst situation this program has been in including going on probation. But there may be a road to recovery and before we blow it up and start from scratch I'd see if we could bring the following roster next year and see if we can get back on track. I would spend the rest of the year recruiting and developing Donnie (right now there is no consensus on his draft stock and the portal might be a bigger flight risk than the NBA) and Choppa and hope for the following roster next year that could get us back on track and see what kind of coach Red is with some talent (don't forget many were praising him for getting 20 wins last year with that roster).

1 PORTAL, Fennell, Westry
2 JJ, Moore, Cuffe (I think he will look for a better opportunity)
3 Kiyan, Womack
4 Donnie, Petar, White
5 PORTAL x 2

 

[althea]

I'm as concerned and as frustrated as the rest of us. But I would let Red have one more year.

Simply put, this season was torpedoed when we swung and missed in the portal with poor talent evaluation. None of these guys can play to a level that we are looking for. Red said he wants to play a faster, high pressured defensive game and he spent the most NIL on an out of shape center who can't score, rebound or play defense. Insane. Carlos clearly was a second choice at the 1 and does not have the talent to play in the ACC. Davis has had a couple of solid games against mostly lousy competition. Taylor, McCloud and sadly Westry are sunk costs with almost no return. I don't know what coach would win with this roster. Yes Red was mostly responsible for the roster construction but Kline was not. Hopefully Kline can improve our talent analysis next year in the portal. I think he can. It can't be worse. And maybe Red will be more successful with a good roster.

Make no mistake Kiyan and White will not turn the program around by themselves. I don't think either of them will be as good as freshman as Donnie is right now. But we presently have the highest ranked class we have had in recent years. And the Melo factor remains. I think it is noteworthy that much to many of our surprise, Kiyan/Melo didn't bring any help with him as far as recruits. What I hope that means is that Melo is planning on helping out with the portal. I can't fathom a situation where he sits back and lets Kiyan start his college career with no talent to help him. That hope, and admittedly it is a hope, is worth giving Red one more year imo. I want to preserve the 4 recruits and the opportunity for us to improve in the portal, hopefully with Melo's assistance.

Plus aside from the portal disasters, everything has gone wrong. JJ got hurt and while we all know he is not a superstar, losing 19 ppg would hurt any team and plus it made Red believe he has to play Carlos insanely high minutes. Many of us had concerns about Bell and his defense/attitude/lack of rebounding, but who foresaw him forgetting how to shoot? He looks miserable and I think he will look for a new home. This staff is tired of babysitting him.

This is the worst situation this program has been in including going on probation. But there may be a road to recovery and before we blow it up and start from scratch I'd see if we could bring the following roster next year and see if we can get back on track. I would spend the rest of the year recruiting and developing Donnie (right now there is no consensus on his draft stock and the portal might be a bigger flight risk than the NBA) and Choppa and hope for the following roster next year that could get us back on track and see what kind of coach Red is with some talent (don't forget many were praising him for getting 20 wins last year with that roster).

1 PORTAL, Fennell, Westry
2 JJ, Moore, Cuffe (I think he will look for a better opportunity)
3 Kiyan, Womack
4 Donnie, Petar, White
5 PORTAL x 2

No offense to you but we need to stop putting Westry in any hypothetical lineup. He is essentially big foot.

 

[Red2003]

I like the ideas here. One thing that hit me hard was that Autry really has to have a Fran Brown like year next year.

Make a Legit tourney seed, end the season top 25, finish in the top quarter of the ACC.

Looking at the bubble from afar all next season isn’t going to cut it. He pretty much has to have the season go the opposite of this one.

Even then we’ll need to see that continue year after year to erase what we’ve seen so far.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Hard to miss
I notice players not listening in time outs. Most are looking at the video board
see them get burned on D, and he just sits there?
Jimmy would have been at half court?
Reality might be Red's a great guy, good recruiter but not a good coach?
nothing will happen this year
it might get ugly if the losses at home get worse

This part.
Professionally I have been, and have hired/supervised coaches for over 20 years. The one trait you look for in a coach is assertiveness, ie; How do you get, and maintain control over your team.
Yes, sports are different from business, but IMHO, Red seems too soft and disengaged. It's like he doesn't want to shake things up for some reason.
If something is important to your entire coaching philosophy, like defense for instance, then you go overboard to illustrate that for your team.
Sit guys down. Wholesale substitutions if need be, just to make your point. We're already losing by 30, and games are done after 5 minutes. At this point, what do you really have to lose? It's maddening how he seems resigned to his fate. It's Dino-eseque how he appears willing to tolerate and accept mediocrity. We are Syracuse dammit! How do we repeatedly get shellacked in game after game...and nothing changes?

 

[Scott11]

No offense to you but we need to stop putting Westry in any hypothetical lineup. He is essentially big foot.

No offense taken. If you look above, I referred to him as a sunk cost. I just think that he will be back. But I have no clue.