The Case for Giving Shafer More Time

[GoSU96]

you don't have to go through every year to know that 6 TDs in 6 games not from your offense is unusually high. you really need to go back and verify that? you watched the games right?

53rd in scoring offense, 76th in offensive TDs.

They are doing better in getting to the Redzone and finishing drives than the last two years, and even those numbers are skewed by the extra possessions and starting field position, but the defensive and special teams scores are skewing the total offense number.

Right now points generated by the offense in regulation is 24. If they can hold that number against this much tougher second half of the year and get off the field more they have a legit chance at winning a couple of more games.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

you don't have to go through every year to know that 6 TDs in 6 games not from your offense is unusually high. you really need to go back and verify that? you watched the games right?

Not to be devils advocate but 42 teams have at least 2 defensive TD's, Multiple teams have punt/KO returns for TD. OT I guess is an outlier especially one where ya score twice.

 

[Millhouse]

Not to be devils advocate but 42 teams have at least 2 defensive TD's, Multiple teams have punt/KO returns for TD. OT I guess is an outlier especially one where ya score twice.

no one would ever bet on getting a TD per game from special teams, defense, or overtime

 

[TheCusian]

you don't have to go through every year to know that 6 TDs in 6 games not from your offense in regulation is unusually high. you really need to go back and verify that? you watched the games right?

Did you read the OP? I gave you credit for this. I said take this with a grain of salt since we've had high D scores and OT scores.

If you want to be more accurate look up the other years. I went with S&P+ because it accounts for more than just straight up cfbstats data. I went with cfbstats because I wanted to not have the whole thing get derailed because someone didn't like the gerg year I placed in there for context.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

no one would ever bet on getting a TD per game from special teams, defense, or overtime

No one said that, I certainly didn't. I was just implying that by averages I would guess Most teams have 4-6 TD by the end of a whole year like that. Certainly at this point we are overachieving.

 

[GoSU96]

Did you read the OP? I gave you credit for this. I said take this with a grain of salt since we've had high D scores and OT scores.

If you want to be more accurate look up the other years. I went with S&P+ because it accounts for more than just straight up cfbstats data. I went with cfbstats because I wanted to not have the whole thing get derailed because someone didn't like the gerg year I placed in there for context.

Here's the last 8 years in a nutshell.

Robinson left a gutted, blasted, non functional, sub D-1 level program that needed a complete rebuilding in all three phases on the field, program culture, strength and conditioning, recruiting, and facilities.

In four years Marrone and Shafer together did almost as well as Harbaugh did at Stanford (tied after year three, 12-1 vs 8-5 in year four), as well as Briles did at Baylor, and much better than Cutcliffe at Duke at building their programs back from similar (Stanford), worse (Baylor), better than (Duke) states.

Since Shafer took over the offense has cratered and the team is 13-18 to date. The defense is at it's lowest level since 2008 (youth, which is completely understandable) and the offense looks better and is measurably better in many ways under Lester than it was as as McF'it wrecked it.

 

[GoSU96]

And this is the point, the main point to this season's argument as well IMO.

Completely correct about year 4 in Marrone's tenure being a culmination of many years work.

I believe 2016 & 17 will be similar for this program. I think there's been a delayed start to the rebuild for a couple reasons. McD being one, personnel being another.

The question is will the patience pay off? I think people have already dug in to their side of the argument one way or another.

There's still a lot of football to be played in 2015.

That's why I keeping saying I really don't care if they win another game this year. Development year, and next year is where you make a call.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

Here's the last 8 years in a nutshell.

Robinson left a gutted, blasted, non functional, sub D-1 level program that needed a complete rebuilding in all three phases on the field, program culture, strength and conditioning, recruiting, and facilities.

In four years Marrone and Shafer together did almost as well as Harbaugh did at Stanford (tied after year three, 12-1 vs 8-5 in year four), as well as Briles did at Baylor, and much better than Cutcliffe at Duke at building their programs back from similar (Stanford), worse (Baylor), better than (Duke) states.

Since Shafer took over the offense has cratered and the team is 13-18 to date. The defense is at it's lowest level since 2008 (youth, which is completely understandable) and the offense looks better and is measurably better in many ways under Lester than it was as as McF'it wrecked it.

Yes but what you aren't saying is - Marrone gutted staff. Left at worst possible time. You yourself say the offense seems to be trending up now that LEster is in place or so it seems and we have an outlier defensive year. So we are ready to axe shafer based on an outlier year that is normally his strength?

Just trying to understand.

All I advocate. Is give shafer 2016 and into 2017. If by midway through 2017 there is no discernible improvement to defense and sustained offensive output- make the switch. Allow the staff current or new to turn it around or at least begin/keep recruiting. I am willing to give that much.


EDIT I just realized you actually think after next year is ok. That's closer to a realistic timeline in my opinion.

 

[phil77]

That's why I keeping saying I really don't care if they win another game this year. Development year, and next year is where you make a call.

That may not be Coyle's timeline. I know everyone wants Shafer to have another year. But if we have another 3-9 or 4-8 year being a new AD there is no easier time to get rid of Shafer and get in "HIS" guy to run the football program as it would be after back to back 3 win seasons.

 

[orangecuse]

This is exactly the time that the mid-term success of the program will be determined. Shafer needs more wins this year to show progress and Pitt is on the short list of potential wins. I hope the fans bring it tomorrow. I know many are discouraged but the team needs every advantage right now. We need a momentum swing and the only thing changing is the venue for the game, where fans are supposed to make it difficult for visitors to maintain composure. There IS a lot of football to be played this year and the outcomes of games are not yet written. Wouldn't it be freaking amazing if the team should manage to win out? Forget the improbability of that occurrence, I believe that the team can improve and perhaps dramatically. In Dungey I trust. LGO!!

Yes it would. MSU's chances of winning last week with 10 seconds left was 0.02%...so I guess anything is possible.

 

[TheCusian]

Here's the last 8 years in a nutshell.

Robinson left a gutted, blasted, non functional, sub D-1 level program that needed a complete rebuilding in all three phases on the field, program culture, strength and conditioning, recruiting, and facilities.

In four years Marrone and Shafer together did almost as well as Harbaugh did at Stanford (tied after year three, 12-1 vs 8-5 in year four), as well as Briles did at Baylor, and much better than Cutcliffe at Duke at building their programs back from similar (Stanford), worse (Baylor), better than (Duke) states.

Since Shafer took over the offense has cratered and the team is 13-18 to date. The defense is at it's lowest level since 2008 (youth, which is completely understandable) and the offense looks better and is measurably better in many ways under Lester than it was as as McF'it wrecked it.

We agree on a lot of that. Where I think the straight w-l is misleading is when you just look at the first 2.5 years of Marrone/Shafer. If you account for SOS, it's really not as different as we like to think. I'll give you the hill to climb for Marrone was much steeper thanks to Gerg's incompetence.

I think Shafer gets another year without another win, but I think we'll snag one or two more yet. I'd love 3 + a bowl game. But that remains a far shot.

 

[billsin01]

I've seen a lot of things written about Shafer's future and what it will take to either keep him or fire him. I think he deserves more time no matter what. There are a few disclaimer type things to get out of the way first:

1. No one know what Coyle will do, really. Lots of signs point towards him not making a decision this year. But the ball is in his court and he can do what he wants or thinks come December. It's not out there to think he'll want to put his stamp on the program or that he has short list of candidates.

2. W-L records are important. But context is needed when evaluating them.

3. Stats are important in evaluation, but sometimes there are things that are important that stats miss.

Here we go.

Continuation
The idea that Shafer was a continuation hire and not a "fresh start hire" is often brought up. "Shafer's taken us backwards" and "We were onto something and Shafer has not built on what Marrone accomplished" are common reasons people use to suggest firing.

I cannot argue that we've built on the success we had in 2012. We have not. But I can show that 2012 was an anomaly built on a senior QB and Hackett's system that was modified/installed in the spring of that year. With Nassib graduating with no sure thing behind him AND Marrone taking the entire offensive coaching staff (most notably, Hackett) made it impossible to continue with the record setting offense from 2012.

Shafer deserves total blame for what turned out to be a bad hire, in McDonald. The demotion combined with injuries derailed 2014. But a close look at McDonald's offense reveals that it wasn't that much worse than Hackett's in 2009-2011. Or Greg Robinson's in 2008.

Offensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's O in 2008: 73
Marrone's O in 2009, 2010, 2011: 77, 107, 86
Marrone's O in 2012: 32
Shafer's O in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 88, 110, 83

While Shafer was unable to continue the offensive success from 2012, the rankings show that we've just been bad at offense for a long time. For a continuation hire - he's done the job unfortunately.

Marrone deserves all the credit in the world for doing something Shafer has not: beating some really good teams. I think he needs a signature win or two this year or next to even consider keeping him past next season.

But outside of 2012, Marrone's record was built largely on the back of Shafer's defense. Marrone should and does get credit for hiring and overseeing Shafer during that time. But make no mistake - the big improvement in w-l record is defensive in nature.

Defensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's D in 2008: 86
Marrone's D in 2009, 2010, 2011: 51, 42, 63
Marrone's D in 2012: 54
Shafer's D in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 37, 33, 54

So if you're looking for a continuation - there it is. In fact you could say given SOS, that we've gotten better with Bullough.

Strength of Schedule
SOS is very interesting to look at when you compare the two coaches as well.

2008 Robinson: 14 (3 wins)
2009 Marrone: 24 (4 wins)
2010 Marrone: 105 (8 wins)
2011 Marrone: 45 (5 wins)
2012 Marrone: 54 (8 wins)
2013 Shafer: 46 (7 wins)
2014 Shafer: 26 (3 wins)
2015 Shafer: 93 (with all of our best opponents we've yet to play that number will fall a lot over the next month) (3 wins, so far)

What can we derive from all that? I think 2013 is being underrated a bit. 7 wins vs a tougher schedule than the very good 2012 team should be a bit more of a gold star than we give Shafer credit for. Those saying "Marrone had 8 wins his second season" need to pump the breaks a bit. They played a very advantageous schedule had a putrid offense. I think we can assume last years team could have as many as 8 wins too. And we all watched that clusterf.

The jump to the ACC is not as large as some suggest. But between that and scheduling up too much has left us with a hill to climb every year. This probably mitigates our increase in recruiting bit.

Offense/Defense/Recruiting
One of the mystifying things this year is that our offense looks and feels better than it's ranking this year. I think the playmakers we have now would have had 2012 Marrone/Hackett sticking around for few more years. It feels like the future is bright even if the stats don't bear that out. If we simply put together 2 halves of football, we'd be at 450-500 yds and 42 points.

Millhouse likes to say "imagine what some other OC could do with them" - and he makes a good point. But I cannot look past the fact that Lester went out and found a guy to run his offense and the kids a stud. Moving Phillips and Strickland to XB is a good move for them (and for Moe Neal next year). Bottom line - we're stock piling decent talent on offense and thats come from good recruiting this staff has done.

If people say "give a coach some time to see what they can do with their recruits" than this offense is exhibit A.

It's also worth noting that the 2015 run offense is committing way less penalties, takes care of the ball pretty well, and has more TD, explosive plays, and better passing efficiency than the 2014 team.

In fact this team is scoring points at the best rate than any year since the 2012 team*:

2008: 217 points
2009: 254 points
2010: 288 points
2011: 290 points
2012: 390 points
2013: 295 points
2014: 205 points
2015: 193 points in 6 games x 2 = 386 points (unlikely due to SOS)

*How many are defensive scores or OT scores? I don't know - didn't remove them from previous years. (Millhouse honorary grain of salt disclaimer)

I'm not worried about the defense at all. This year is not far off from our average. I think it's youth, honestly. And that they'll get better. This year.

Non-Football Considerations
I think this is not as important than w's, so let's get that out of the way. However, let's not just sweep it under the rug. Families are buying what Shafer and staff as authentic human beings and good people. Kids are doing pretty well in the classroom. Off field trouble has been down since his first year. Shafer seems like a high character guy. That counts for a lot with me. And I'd bet it resonates with Coyle.

Conclusion
I think given the info here and our recent history, Shafer gets another year no matter what. Could Coyle decide otherwise? Sure...

Good thing we have 6 more games vs good/great teams. Go Cuse!

Interesting case and some good points in here. I would say that if I were to break it down I'd actually focus on two basic points:

1) Is there reason to believe the 2016 team could be better than the 2015 team?
If you like the young talent on offense and feel we've at least shown some signs of improvement from the GMcD offense, then reasonably it's not crazy to assume the offense in year 2 of a system, with decent young talent returning, takes a step forward. (Note: This is not to say I'm incredibly excited about the tandem of Shafer/Lester running the offense, but simply that improvement seems logical to project.) Defensively, Shafer has a history of putting good defenses on the field here. You're young and thin on the DL this year, if that situation improves heading into next year, then OK, I'm good with the defense potentially improving as well. Bottom line: It's logical to assume it will be a better football team. How much better? I'm a bit more skeptical there, but improvement is at least a start.

2) What is your budget for a new coach/staff?
Does the university go all in and allow for $3M-$4M for a head coach and $1M for each coordinator as well as providing legit funding for the rest of the staff? Or are we looking at $1.5M-$2M with less cash for the surrounding staff members? If it is the latter, then I think you give Shafer another year b/c you're probably not hiring someone you're sure is an upgrade. If the budget is such that you can go lure a bigger, more proven name with a legit surrounding staff, then I think you're pretty tempted to make the move based on what feels like a bit of limited ceiling with Shafer.

Them's my thoughts.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

That may not be Coyle's timeline. I know everyone wants Shafer to have another year. But if we have another 3-9 or 4-8 year being a new AD there is no easier time to get rid of Shafer and get in "HIS" guy to run the football program as it would be after back to back 3 win seasons.

Except you and that's obvious. LOL his guy.

 

[TheCusian]

That may not be Coyle's timeline. I know everyone wants Shafer to have another year. But if we have another 3-9 or 4-8 year being a new AD there is no easier time to get rid of Shafer and get in "HIS" guy to run the football program as it would be after back to back 3 win seasons.

Agreed. If Coyle is hell bent on getting rid of him there is not a whole lot Shafer can do but win a few more games.

 

[phil77]

Except you and that's obvious. LOL his guy.

I do want him to have another year because that means Syracuse won a couple games coming home. Not like I am rooting against him and the university to fail. I want to win every week. I want Shafer to be around next year because that would mean we have been successful in the back half of our schedule.

I am very harsh on him because I do not see the in game coaching improvement I want from a head coach. IMO his game management and game planning are not improving at all. That doesn't mean I root against him and want him to fail. By all accounts he is a great person and great in the community. But I have serious concerns about his head coaching ability

 

[billsin01]

I think what this board probably needs to prepare itself for is that Fredericks, Ish and Erv might just be guys who every team we play has a bunch of. I hope that's not the case, but they might just be average.

I would argue that this is absolutely true. The idea that we'll be lining up against an ACC foe that doesn't have a fairly comparable counter to those three and the rest of the guys on offense seems extremely unlikely, IMO.

 

[TheCusian]

Interesting case and some good points in here. I would say that if I were to break it down I'd actually focus on two basic points:

1) Is there reason to believe the 2016 team could be better than the 2015 team?
If you like the young talent on offense and feel we've at least shown some signs of improvement from the GMcD offense, then reasonably it's not crazy to assume the offense in year 2 of a system, with decent young talent returning, takes a step forward. (Note: This is not to say I'm incredibly excited about the tandem of Shafer/Lester running the offense, but simply that improvement seems logical to project.) Defensively, Shafer has a history of putting good defenses on the field here. You're young and thin on the DL this year, if that situation improves heading into next year, then OK, I'm good with the defense potentially improving as well. Bottom line: It's logical to assume it will be a better football team. How much better? I'm a bit more skeptical there, but improvement is at least a start.

2) What is your budget for a new coach/staff?
Does the university go all in and allow for $3M-$4M for a head coach and $1M for each coordinator as well as providing legit funding for the rest of the staff? Or are we looking at $1.5M-$2M with less cash for the surrounding staff members? If it is the latter, then I think you give Shafer another year b/c you're probably not hiring someone you're sure is an upgrade. If the budget is such that you can go lure a bigger, more proven name with a legit surrounding staff, then I think you're pretty tempted to make the move based on what feels like a bit of limited ceiling with Shafer.

Them's my thoughts.

Great points.

I do think they'll be better. I don't see the SOS getting any easier. So it'll have to be earned.

I don't know about money. I'd bet that's a consideration that Coyle holds pretty high given the fiscal issues of Gross.

 

[TheCusian]

I would argue that this is absolutely true. The idea that we'll be lining up against an ACC foe that doesn't have a fairly comparable counter to those three and the rest of the guys on offense seems extremely unlikely, IMO.

Yeah - but that's the wrong comp. The real comp is did we have anyone "ACC average" our first two years in conference? I like Smith. But outside of that?! I don't know.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

Interesting case and some good points in here. I would say that if I were to break it down I'd actually focus on two basic points:

1) Is there reason to believe the 2016 team could be better than the 2015 team?
If you like the young talent on offense and feel we've at least shown some signs of improvement from the GMcD offense, then reasonably it's not crazy to assume the offense in year 2 of a system, with decent young talent returning, takes a step forward. (Note: This is not to say I'm incredibly excited about the tandem of Shafer/Lester running the offense, but simply that improvement seems logical to project.) Defensively, Shafer has a history of putting good defenses on the field here. You're young and thin on the DL this year, if that situation improves heading into next year, then OK, I'm good with the defense potentially improving as well. Bottom line: It's logical to assume it will be a better football team. How much better? I'm a bit more skeptical there, but improvement is at least a start.

2) What is your budget for a new coach/staff?
Does the university go all in and allow for $3M-$4M for a head coach and $1M for each coordinator as well as providing legit funding for the rest of the staff? Or are we looking at $1.5M-$2M with less cash for the surrounding staff members? If it is the latter, then I think you give Shafer another year b/c you're probably not hiring someone you're sure is an upgrade. If the budget is such that you can go lure a bigger, more proven name with a legit surrounding staff, then I think you're pretty tempted to make the move based on what feels like a bit of limited ceiling with Shafer.

Them's my thoughts.

Ill bite.
1.
But how far away really is the team now with any deficiency that can be identified. Ill take out LSU Game (its a non starter - we played up they played down). USF was a game where we struggled in the first half first trip out. I think that's expected. We started to fight back then got burned by bad penalties and then it snowballed a bit. UVA IMO was literally 3-4 plays that could have made that a 3 TD Game in our favor. So that close and then we are 4-2 maybe 5-1. Just saying How much better do they need to get. I don think the bar is so far out of reach that its not plausible that we could make a large leap next year (record wise) and product wise.

Generally I see what you are saying though.

2.
I doubt it . But I have been surprised before.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I do want him to have another year because that means Syracuse won a couple games coming home. Not like I am rooting against him and the university to fail. I want to win every week. I want Shafer to be around next year because that would mean we have been successful in the back half of our schedule.

I am very harsh on him because I do not see the in game coaching improvement I want from a head coach. IMO his game management and game planning are not improving at all. That doesn't mean I root against him and want him to fail. By all accounts he is a great person and great in the community. But I have serious concerns about his head coaching ability

Who are you - In game coaching. Tell me right now your ability to determine in game coaching. Resume please, and I am not trying to be an ass but I am so sick of people just saying things when they are a causal fan.

 

[bcubs9497]

I do want him to have another year because that means Syracuse won a couple games coming home. Not like I am rooting against him and the university to fail. I want to win every week. I want Shafer to be around next year because that would mean we have been successful in the back half of our schedule.

I am very harsh on him because I do not see the in game coaching improvement I want from a head coach. IMO his game management and game planning are not improving at all. That doesn't mean I root against him and want him to fail. By all accounts he is a great person and great in the community. But I have serious concerns about his head coaching ability

The great thing is that it's not about what you want...

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I would argue that this is absolutely true. The idea that we'll be lining up against an ACC foe that doesn't have a fairly comparable counter to those three and the rest of the guys on offense seems extremely unlikely, IMO.

Can we argue that Freshman Fredericks and Sophmore Erv and Ish are better than Freshman Jerome Smith and Sophmore Alec lemon and Jerrod West

 

[Full_Rebar]

The great thing is that it's not about what you want...

Same could be said about all of us quite frankly. Coyle and Syverud could decide they want to pick their own HC and there might not be a damn thing anyone else can do about it.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Can we argue that Freshman Fredericks and Sophmore Erv and Ish are better than Freshman Jerome Smith and Sophmore Alec lemon and Jerrod West

We can argue it. How exactly are you going to prove it?

 

[billsin01]

Ill bite.
1.
But how far away really is the team now with any deficiency that can be identified. Ill take out LSU Game (its a non starter - we played up they played down). USF was a game where we struggled in the first half first trip out. I think that's expected. We started to fight back then got burned by bad penalties and then it snowballed a bit. UVA IMO was literally 3-4 plays that could have made that a 3 TD Game in our favor. So that close and then we are 4-2 maybe 5-1. Just saying How much better do they need to get. I don think the bar is so far out of reach that its not plausible that we could make a large leap next year (record wise) and product wise.

Generally I see what you are saying though.

2.
I doubt it . But I have been surprised before.

I would doubt the $$ question as well. But as for point 1, I think it's dangerous playing shoulda-woulda-coulda with this stuff. The bottom line to me is that we haven't really beaten anyone with Shafer at the helm that you can hang your hat on. That makes me a bit skeptical that a year or two years makes that big of a difference. I don't know that we need to get that much better, but I worry a bit about our ability to cover that ground with this staff. Getting significantly better from a GRob team to a legit football team is actually an easier leap to make, IMO, than going from a relatively competitive team, to a team that's actually at least in the discussion for a division title in the ACC.