The Case for Giving Shafer More Time

[TheCusian]

Deserved more then 3 seasons? Jeez I hope so after two 8 win seasons that included bowl wins vs other P5 programs. I'd be the first one lining up for a huge extension if that's what Shafer was doing.

His 2nd 8 win season happened in year 4 no? He had one 8 win season and it was a miracle given what we'd gone through with Gerg, but looking back it's really about as an impressive season as Shafers first (7 wins).

EDIT: both coaches have a win over a P5 opponent in a bowl game in their first 2.5 years.

 

[orangecuse]

SOS in 2010: 105
SOS in 2014: 26

2010 OOC: Akron, Colgate (FCS), Maine (FCS), Washington
2014 OOC: Villanova, CMU, Maryland, #8 Notre Dame

2010 Ranked teams: WVU
2014 Ranked teams: ND, FSU, Clemson

2010 starting QB: Nassib 13 games
2015 starting QB: Hunt 6 games

I think the +3 games for Marrone is not all that impressive in his first 2.5 years given the stats above. He deserves credit for his upsets over ranked opponents. That's a major check mark vs Shafer.

Only chiming into the gunfight because if you truly believe that after the total disaster and debacle the GRob hire was and ensuing state of the program prior to DM's arrival...well, that's a quite obtuse position in my opinion...no offense.

 

[TheCusian]

Only chiming into the gunfight because if you truly believe that after the total disaster and debacle the GRob hire was and ensuing state of the program prior to DM's arrival...well, that's a quite obtuse position in my opinion...no offense.

Yeah - that should be considered more than I stated in the OP.

I know this all looks like a takedown of Marrone, but I honestly wish he'd stuck around. I do value what he accomplished.

 

[orangeinjersey]

What's Temples SOS? They're 7-0, and playing Notre Dame in Prime Time next week. I don't know their SOS, but I know they're 7-0

 

[TheCusian]

What's Temples SOS? They're 7-0, and playing Notre Dame in Prime Time next week. I don't know their SOS, but I know they're 7-0

Casual fans don't know or care about SOS unless their teams are in the playoff or close to it. The point is that if you're evaluating a coach and firing/hiring then you need to take it into account. I'm all for scheduling weak OOC to get some momentum. It worked for Marrone and the 2010 team. Another example: I know NC State hasn't won a game vs a P5 team and has 4 wins vs pretty bad comp. Therefore I don't think I'll write them off as a loss. We just don't have any idea how good of a 4-2 they are. But most people will say they're the better team just by looking at the w-l.

 

[qdawgg]

Yeah - that should be considered more than I stated in the OP.

I know this all looks like a takedown of Marrone, but I honestly wish he'd stuck around. I do value what he accomplished.

I actually think he accomplished what he was going to. Shafer would have continued, in all likelihood having successful defenses. Hackett quite possibly would have left for an NFL position regardless, or a "higher" level CFB program. If he continued to provide stability it would have been nice but I think he quite possibly reached his ceiling, or close to it. We would have been calling for his head at some point with his conservative game plans, in hindsight, based on the talent available it was all we could do to attempt to stay competitive.

As I've always maintained. I want Shafer to stay here and be successful. I've come off as bashing him but from my perspective I'm partially playing devils advocate. There are definitely significant factors making Shafers job more difficult and leading to the losing. At the same time there are some question marks as well. I really hope the question marks are growing pains and they can be overcome and that the roadblocks he's faced are the major reasons for the lack of wins.

I have to say, I have loved going for these 4th downs this year. I think it shows some growth and b@lls. Millhouse would say it just makes sense statistically, which might be true, but that's not conventional coaching wisdom. So to go for these 4th downs is something Marrone would have never done, even with better talent. On the flip side, the OL is a major concern to me and it's not the players I'm concerned with. It's the thought process to put someone with no experience in charge of coaching the OL. If he corrects that after the season, I can see giving him another year just because that decision shows growth and would not be an easy decision to make.

 

[TheCusian]

I actually think he accomplished what he was going to. Shafer would have continued, in all likelihood having successful defenses. Hackett quite possibly would have left for an NFL position regardless, or a "higher" level CFB program. If he continued to provide stability it would have been nice but I think he quite possibly reached his ceiling, or close to it. We would have been calling for his head at some point with his conservative game plans, in hindsight, based on the talent available it was all we could do to attempt to stay competitive. As I've always maintained. I want Shafer to stay here and be successful. I've come off as bashing him but from my perspective I'm partially playing devils advocate. There are definitely significant factors making Shafers job more difficult and leading to the losing. At the same time there are some question marks as well. I really hope the question marks are growing pains and they can be overcome and that the roadblocks he's faced are the major reasons for the lack of wins. I have to say, I have loved going for these 4th downs this year. I think it shows some growth and b@lls. Millhouse would say it just makes sense statistically, which might be true, but that's not conventional coaching wisdom. So to go for these 4th downs is something Marrone would have never done, even with better talent. On the flip side, the OL is a major concern to me and it's not the players I'm concerned with. It's the thought process to put someone with no experience in charge of coaching the OL. If he corrects that after the season, I can see giving him another year just because that decision shows growth and would not be an easy decision to make.

Yeah - I think people are reading the OP as a full endorsement of Shafer and/or that he was a better coach than Marrone. I did not try to make that case... I think Marrone needed time and I think Shafer needs the same.

Wining the game this weekend would go a long way.

I agree about the 4th down calls. He needs to call games more aggressively. He had UVa by the throat - we looked better than them for 3Q and then we went turtle in shell.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Deserved more then 3 seasons? Jeez I hope so after two 8 win seasons that included bowl wins vs other P5 programs. I'd be the first one lining up for a huge extension if that's what Shafer was doing.

Wish you were the AD a few years ago because part of the reason Marrone was looking to get out of town was the lack of discussion on an extension. Of all the things, good and bad, that Gross accomplished in his time, his handling of football was an absolute failure.

 

[GoSU96]

not saying the ranking's right - it's too much of a black box for my liking but here's the link
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff2008

SU got high marks for pass downs and rushing offense. ranked 41 and 20th respectively. they treat sacks as passing yards, so maybe that explains the high marks for rushing but i don't know what the hell pass downs ranking is about. the running backs were good

I'm sorry, but anybody can get to 55th being as run heavy as they were and using heavy sets constantly, the offense as a whole was horrific, non functional.

It was as bad as the three years before with Pariani and White.

If an offense with that profile gets spit out as 73rd or 83rd by some formula, the formula needs a lot of work.

 

[Millhouse]

2011 we were killed with injuries. You allow the injury excuse for last year but forget 2011. We started that 5-2 and had a great upset win on national TV in primetime over #11 WVU.

Shafer's D? Or Doug Marrone's D? Your defense of SS really is amazing. Honestly it is amazing. Our 2010 offense was 2014 bad?
Do you remember this game.

the offenses were bad in marrone's first 3 years but at least we were thrown a bone every year with games pretty close to 450-500 yard good showings on offense.

for shafer, there was BC in 2013. 94 plays at so-so yards per play. maryland which was obviously goofy. then we pulled the plug.

we got to 400 in lester's first game, and that's it.

the offense needs to explode at some point for me to feel good about lester. lots of plays lots of yards.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm sorry, but anybody can get to 55th being as run heavy as they were and using heavy sets constantly, the offense as a whole was horrific, non functional.

It was as bad as the three years before with Pariani and White.

If an offense with that profile gets spit out as 73rd or 83rd by some formula, the formula needs a lot of work.

i'm not defending it. i'd like to see an adjusted yards per play. rushing yards are worth more than passing yards. 6 yards per rush is great. 6 yards per pass isn't. so yards per play is biased to passing teams. but yards per play still tells the story good enough because teams that run well eventually hit on giant passing plays that bring up the yards per play. and it has the benefit of being simple and transparent

i don't go too crazy posting that football outsiders stuff

they adjusted their ppg from 18 to 24 (their s&p+ is presented like an adjusted scoring average). 25% bump.

i don't get it

the powerpoint presentation was snazzy but garbage in garbage out

 

[GoSU96]

Concur. That was a fantastic year in year 4 of his tenure.

And this is where you fail completely.

It was year four of a COMPLETE rebuild. He didn't pick up a functioning program.

Shafer is in year three after picking up a solid program with a really good defense and run game returning.

2012 wasn't an aberration, it was the result of the three prior years of work building the program back up.

 

[GoSU96]

garbage in garbage out

You got that right.

 

[Finwad32]

And this is where you fail completely.

It was year four of a COMPLETE rebuild. He didn't pick up a functioning program.

Shafer is in year three after picking up a solid program with a really good defense and run game returning.

2012 wasn't an aberration, it was the result of the three prior years of work building the program back up.

And this is the point, the main point to this season's argument as well IMO.

Completely correct about year 4 in Marrone's tenure being a culmination of many years work.

I believe 2016 & 17 will be similar for this program. I think there's been a delayed start to the rebuild for a couple reasons. McD being one, personnel being another.

The question is will the patience pay off? I think people have already dug in to their side of the argument one way or another.

There's still a lot of football to be played in 2015.

 

[Millhouse]

You got that right.

SU must've been so unusually terrible in some respect that it broke the model in a way they never thought to test. field position? i can't figure it out and i don't want to think too hard about gerg's swan song

i have no idea how they give SU a 14th ranked strength of schedule

 

[NineOneSeven]

Need to at least win one more game.

 

[Shenexon]

And this is the point, the main point to this season's argument as well IMO.

Completely correct about year 4 in Marrone's tenure being a culmination of many years work.

I believe 2016 & 17 will be similar for this program. I think there's been a delayed start to the rebuild for a couple reasons. McD being one, personnel being another.

The question is will the patience pay off? I think people have already dug in to their side of the argument one way or another.

There's still a lot of football to be played in 2015.

This is exactly the time that the mid-term success of the program will be determined. Shafer needs more wins this year to show progress and Pitt is on the short list of potential wins. I hope the fans bring it tomorrow. I know many are discouraged but the team needs every advantage right now. We need a momentum swing and the only thing changing is the venue for the game, where fans are supposed to make it difficult for visitors to maintain composure. There IS a lot of football to be played this year and the outcomes of games are not yet written. Wouldn't it be freaking amazing if the team should manage to win out? Forget the improbability of that occurrence, I believe that the team can improve and perhaps dramatically. In Dungey I trust. LGO!!

 

[TheCusian]

You got that right.

Good gravy.

The S&P+ is built with this in mind. Read.

 

[Finwad32]

This is exactly the time that the mid-term success of the program will be determined. Shafer needs more wins this year to show progress and Pitt is on the short list of potential wins. I hope the fans bring it tomorrow. I know many are discouraged but the team needs every advantage right now. We need a momentum swing and the only thing changing is the venue for the game, where fans are supposed to make it difficult for visitors to maintain composure. There IS a lot of football to be played this year and the outcomes of games are not yet written. Wouldn't it be freaking amazing if the team should manage to win out? Forget the improbability of that occurrence, I believe that the team can improve and perhaps dramatically. In Dungey I trust. LGO!!

The only thing I'll say is that I don't believe in what games could be potential wins. I've seen far too much not to know that anything can happen in any given week. You can assign probabilities and likelihoods to each game, but, the only predictable part of football is that it's unpredictable.

 

[Millhouse]

Good gravy.

The S&P+ is built with this in mind. Read.

we all know why you ran with that stat. no one on earth actually thinks SU belongs where that rating puts them, not even gerg or bill connelly or whoever. no one thinks that team was good at anything except running the ball.

 

[TheCusian]

we all know why you ran with that stat. no one on earth actually thinks SU belongs where that rating puts them, not even gerg or bill connelly or whoever. no one thinks that team was good at anything except running the ball.

I had no earthly knowledge of that stat prior to picking S&P+... I thought about leaving it off, but ran with it to show context. Leave it off if you want. I didn't even need to reference it very much in the OP.

 

[TheCusian]

Go and Millhouse are getting too wrapped up in the S&P+ numbers for the last year of Gerg, so I whipped this up.

It pretty much reveals the same things, give or take. It doesn't refute anything from the OP. And like I said, I included Gerg's last year for context. Leave it off if you want.

 

[Millhouse]

Go and Millhouse are getting too wrapped up in the S&P+ numbers for the last year of Gerg, so I whipped this up.

It pretty much reveals the same things, give or take. It doesn't refute anything from the OP. And like I said, I included Gerg's last year for context. Leave it off if you want.

it doesn't matter how many dashboards you create, it doesn't change that we've had an unusual number of defensive scores and overtime possessions in 6 games this year

we've had 2 years where we've outgained opponents per play since the end of 2007. Both of those years were marrones.

Year YPP Margin
2010 0.61
2012 0.35
2014 -0.09
2013 -0.23
2015 -0.28
2009 -0.32
2011 -0.32
2008 -1.25

and the only reason 2014 was so high was because of the MD game where they outgained MD by a million

 

[TheCusian]

it doesn't matter how many dashboards you create, it doesn't change that we've had an unusual number of defensive scores and overtime possessions in 6 games this year

yeah - mentioned that in the OP. Def work to be done this year.

EDIT: Also - if you get a second, go ahead and remove them from the other 7 years so we can compare properly. The stats I have include those things, so I went with it. Spent enough time on this yesterday.

 

[Millhouse]

yeah - mentioned that in the OP. Def work to be done this year. EDIT: Also - if you get a second, go ahead and remove them from the other 7 years so we can compare properly. The stats I have include those things, so I went with it. Spent enough time on this yesterday.

you don't have to go through every year to know that 6 TDs in 6 games not from your offense in regulation is unusually high. you really need to go back and verify that? you watched the games right?