Think big boy football

[TheCusian]

The random numbers that you're throwing out are close to worthless. The pace between the two offenses is wildly different. Adjust for pace and your arrow flips.

- YPP is a tempo free stat. Arrow remains. +18 spots nationally. (and is included in your link)

- PPP is flipped. But let's apply some logic. If your Points per play is pretty good (2015), but you play at a slower pace - you score less than you would if your Points per play are less good (2016) but you run 220 more plays. That's what happened last year. Bottom line: we ran more plays and scored more offensive points. (This also shows off what this offense can be when it really starts clicking).

- I love when people argue that tempo stats are useless. Like being able to put up 400+ yards is the same as 300+ yards. There is real pressure put on the opposing team by more yards/first downs, etc. That we didn't score more is the anomaly.

- More possessions = More chances at scoring (for both teams). The advantage starts to slide towards the team that is more efficient at turning possessions into points. Neither 2015 or 2016 was particularly efficient. (I expect our ability to turn yards and first downs into points to go up this year. And our ability to offer better resistance on D to go up too).

(Brief aside: The 2016 defense was worse than the 2015 defense. The fact that we won the same amount of games without the help of OT/ST TD/D TD - including a victory over a ranked team - says a lot about the 2016 offense IMO).

The truth is that the two offenses are very close and any definitive declarations one way or another are foolish. And a claim I didn't make.

 

[721Comstock]

- YPP is a tempo free stat. Arrow remains. +18 spots nationally. (and is included in your link)

- PPP is flipped. But let's apply some logic. If your Points per play is pretty good (2015), but you play at a slower pace - you score less than you would if your Points per play are less good (2016) but you run 220 more plays. That's what happened last year. Bottom line: we ran more plays and scored more offensive points. (This also shows off what this offense can be when it really starts clicking).

- I love when people argue that tempo stats are useless. Like being able to put up 400+ yards is the same as 300+ yards. There is real pressure put on the opposing team by more yards/first downs, etc. That we didn't score more is the anomaly.

- More possessions = More chances at scoring (for both teams). The advantage starts to slide towards the team that is more efficient at turning possessions into points. Neither 2015 or 2016 was particularly efficient. (I expect our ability to turn yards and first downs into points to go up this year. And our ability to offer better resistance on D to go up too).

(Brief aside: The 2016 defense was worse than the 2015 defense. The fact that we won the same amount of games without the help of OT/ST TD/D TD - including a victory over a ranked team - says a lot about the 2016 offense IMO).

The truth is that the two offenses are very close and any definitive declarations one way or another are foolish. And a claim I didn't make.

Scoring WILL go up, as we'll have all those players with another year of experience running the system (Dino says between game 4-6 in Season 2 is when it will 'click', and then - watch out!), plus an improved running game (especially if we can ever add Gus to the fold there), and actual threats at the TE position to help spread the D even more, and/or offer a dump-off option if a play breaks down.

Once the O starts scoring more, it makes life easier on the D, as our opponents then have to change their gameplan to try to keep pace on the scoreboard. That allows the D to be more opportunistic, and hopefully get more TO's.
If nothing else, if the D simply improves to "meh" from "awful" (which, they did over the course of last season, for the most part), then that will help us win more games. We can't give up multiple huge chunk plays like we did early in the year against ND, Llvll, Clemson, etc. I'd imagine the influx of size and speed we just added will help immensely in this regard.

 

[TheCusian]

Scoring WILL go up, as we'll have all those players with another year of experience running the system (Dino says between game 4-6 in Season 2 is when it will 'click', and then - watch out!), plus an improved running game (especially if we can ever add Gus to the fold there), and actual threats at the TE position to help spread the D even more, and/or offer a dump-off option if a play breaks down.

Once the O starts scoring more, it makes life easier on the D, as our opponents then have to change their gameplan to try to keep pace on the scoreboard. That allows the D to be more opportunistic, and hopefully get more TO's.
If nothing else, if the D simply improves to "meh" from "awful" (which, they did over the course of last season, for the most part), then that will help us win more games. We can't give up multiple huge chunk plays like we did early in the year against ND, Llvll, Clemson, etc. I'd imagine the influx of size and speed we just added will help immensely in this regard.

The truth is that there will always be a segment of the fanbase that doesn't like tempo football. I think it's fair to question the stress it puts on the defense, but there is no doubt in my mind that this will work here (Dome + natural disadvantages in recruiting/access to athletes).

 

[nzm136]

- YPP is a tempo free stat. Arrow remains. +18 spots nationally. (and is included in your link)

- PPP is flipped. But let's apply some logic. If your Points per play is pretty good (2015), but you play at a slower pace - you score less than you would if your Points per play are less good (2016) but you run 220 more plays. That's what happened last year. Bottom line: we ran more plays and scored more offensive points. (This also shows off what this offense can be when it really starts clicking).

- I love when people argue that tempo stats are useless. Like being able to put up 400+ yards is the same as 300+ yards. There is real pressure put on the opposing team by more yards/first downs, etc. That we didn't score more is the anomaly.

- More possessions = More chances at scoring (for both teams). The advantage starts to slide towards the team that is more efficient at turning possessions into points. Neither 2015 or 2016 was particularly efficient. (I expect our ability to turn yards and first downs into points to go up this year. And our ability to offer better resistance on D to go up too).

(Brief aside: The 2016 defense was worse than the 2015 defense. The fact that we won the same amount of games without the help of OT/ST TD/D TD - including a victory over a ranked team - says a lot about the 2016 offense IMO).

The truth is that the two offenses are very close and any definitive declarations one way or another are foolish. And a claim I didn't make.

Yards don't win games. Points do. Compare the things that matter on offense: primarily it's ability to score when it gets the ball, and secondarily it's ability to set its defense up for success.

As for the 2016/2015 defense argument, it's hard to say. The '16 looked a lot worse, but it hard to look good when you're winded because the offense doesn't stay on the field.

 

[TheCusian]

Yards don't win games. Points do. Compare the things that matter on offense: primarily it's ability to score when it gets the ball, and secondarily it's ability to set its defense up for success.

As for the 2016/2015 defense argument, it's hard to say. The '16 looked a lot worse, but it hard to look good when you're winded because the offense doesn't stay on the field.

The question wasn't which team won more games (a tie).

Since the question is which offense was better, I'd go with the one with more points, yards per play, and overall yards. All of which were better in 2016 by a slim margin (except actual yards). (The 2015 team was more efficient by a slim margin, but played so slow that they either didn't take advantage of it's efficiency OR didn't have time to be exposed).

I'd also openly question whether it's the job of the offense to set up the defense. I think that's kind of overthinking it unless you're in the last half of the 4th Q. The job of the offense is to score.

There's no doubt that tempo tends to hurt the D. But using the same tempo-free stats to evaluate the offense, helps evaluate the D. And 2015's D was better in YPP.

 

[PhatOrange]

Yards don't win games. Points do. Compare the things that matter on offense: primarily it's ability to score when it gets the ball, and secondarily it's ability to set its defense up for success.

As for the 2016/2015 defense argument, it's hard to say. The '16 looked a lot worse, but it hard to look good when you're winded because the offense doesn't stay on the field.

points were an anomaly. a half way decent kicker would've been that many more points.. And a just above luke warm running game. You'd have to be an idiot to think the 2015 offense is or was better.

 

[bcubs9497]

In theory, Baber's offense is a can't lose proposition. Last year, though, its execution sucked. Way too many drive killing penalties and mental mistakes. Get those things shored up, and we will see an almost exponential improvement in the offensive AND defensive aspects of the game.

 

[RMH44]

In theory, Baber's offense is a can't lose proposition. Last year, though, its execution sucked. Way too many drive killing penalties and mental mistakes. Get those things shored up, and we will see an almost exponential improvement in the offensive AND defensive aspects of the game.

Steve...do you have any predictions who starts along the OL?

Or is that off limits ;-)