USA Lax Mag Preseason Poll | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

USA Lax Mag Preseason Poll

JeremyCuse said:
UNC has major concerns defensively, the loss of Bowen is enormous and that unit struggled even with him.
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Yeah I feel like I am taking crazy pills with UNC being ranked this high. I am sure they will win some big games, and having Grey is huge, but they are replacing five of their top 6 midfielders including their entire first line. They are very solid at goalie and at X but midfield is such an important position. I know they bring in a ton of five star freshmen, but midfield might be the hardest position to adapt to in college for first years.
 
You never like having to rely on so many freshmen to step in. Freshmen contributing is supposed to be a luxury for good teams. When your season hinges on several of them needing to step up, then that's more likely than not going to end up being a season to forget. Gray is the best player in the conference but I'm not in love with some of their other pieces.

Maher, the shortie, can play though. 65 GBs for an SSDM. My word.
 
Powellfan said:
Yeah I feel like I am taking crazy pills with UNC being ranked this high. I am sure they will win some big games, and having Grey is huge, but they are replacing five of their top 6 midfielders including their entire first line. They are very solid at goalie and at X but midfield is such an important position. I know they bring in a ton of five star freshmen, but midfield might be the hardest position to adapt to in college for first years.
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UNC roster has always been laden with 4 and 5 star talent.

Gray arriving and being 7 WAR simply brought their talent forth to realization.

Take him out of equation and their personal losses would be felt more. They were arguably a score away from being the best team last year. # 6 may be appropriate
 
JeremyCuse said:
UNC has major concerns defensively, the loss of Bowen is enormous and that unit struggled even with him.
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Remains to be seen , looks the part as he's certainly a physical presence who can cause turnovers given his aggressive checks as well as can clear the ball but defensively he was not a shutdown defender . Macri most always took on the ones they faced and other switches on we're made of by others. UNC is very high on a big frosh named Barton to seamlessly replace, as previously said remains to be seen. Bigger question is replacing all those older experienced maids but Gray makes assimilation easier for all and may be even more assertive in his farewell year .
 
ivorytower said:
Remains to be seen , looks the part as he's certainly a physical presence who can cause turnovers given his aggressive checks as well as can clear the ball but defensively he was not a shutdown defender . Macri most always took on the ones they faced and other switches on we're made of by others. UNC is very high on a big frosh named Barton to seamlessly replace, as previously said remains to be seen. Bigger question is replacing all those older experienced maids but Gray makes assimilation easier for all and may be even more assertive in his farewell year .
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i don't get the takes, including from the article, about their defense. their d was excellent last year. maybe in 2 games they struggled, and one of them they won.

i do wonder who's getting dropped from the rotation if 4 of the 9 are frosh. they mention shertzinger as a potential leader.

gray, solomon, kelly, tillman, shertzinger, herbert. who's getting bounced?

my guess unc at least ties for the acc crown again.
 
Powellfan said:
Yeah I feel like I am taking crazy pills with UNC being ranked this high. I am sure they will win some big games, and having Grey is huge, but they are replacing five of their top 6 midfielders including their entire first line. They are very solid at goalie and at X but midfield is such an important position. I know they bring in a ton of five star freshmen, but midfield might be the hardest position to adapt to in college for first years.
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UNC does have Cole Herbert back who was getting his feet wet last season. Maybe they move Lance Tillman out to the midfield. Then try to fit one of several highly ranked freshmen. Might be a little early to put a fork in them.
 
Zack80 said:
UNC does have Cole Herbert back who was getting his feet wet last season. Maybe they move Lance Tillman out to the midfield. Then try to fit one of several highly ranked freshmen. Might be a little early to put a fork in them.
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Tillman should be a name to watch for them. Correct me if I’m wrong but did he replace Cameron/Kelly in the final four game? My sense is that a reason Cameron transferred is Tillman was going to take that lefty attack spot. I don’t think they move him to midfield but you never know. Maybe Kelly is the one getting bounced?

They mention DeMarco in that article so I have to imagine he’s in the running. Have to think they will mix and match as the season goes on. Still, I think Breschi said they have four freshmen in their top nine? That’s
 
wgdsr said:
i don't get the takes, including from the article, about their defense. their d was excellent last year. maybe in 2 games they struggled, and one of them they won.

i do wonder who's getting dropped from the rotation if 4 of the 9 are frosh. they mention shertzinger as a potential leader.

gray, solomon, kelly, tillman, shertzinger, herbert. who's getting bounced?

my guess unc at least ties for the acc crown again.
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UNC was 41st in the country in defensive efficiency last year. Given the schedule that's not horrible but it definitely was not excellent either. Was well behind Notre Dame and Duke for 3rd in the ACC. Cuse was 62nd, one of the very worst in Division 1.

Heels very strong on faceoffs with two capable guys and in goal with Krieg. Also solid rope unit with Maher, Wright et al. Gray is the linchpin. Ancillary attack pieces are fine, not spectacular. They don't need to be spectacular when they get to play with Gray though. It ALL comes down to midfield depth for them and being able to somehow make up for the loss of that veteran middie core.
 
nyclax said:
UNC was 41st in the country in defensive efficiency last year. Given the schedule that's not horrible but it definitely was not excellent either. Was well behind Notre Dame and Duke for 3rd in the ACC. Cuse was 62nd, one of the very worst in Division 1.

Heels very strong on faceoffs with two capable guys and in goal with Krieg. Also solid rope unit with Maher, Wright et al. Gray is the linchpin. Ancillary attack pieces are fine, not spectacular. They don't need to be spectacular when they get to play with Gray though. It ALL comes down to midfield depth for them and being able to somehow make up for the loss of that veteran middie core.
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What is defensive efficiency?
UNC allowed 170 goals in 16 games, 10.6 per game, which in the shot clock era of the game seems pretty good. Duke allowed 174 goals in 17 games, 10.2 per game - not a big difference. Virginia allowed 210 goals in 18 games - 11.7 per game.
 
nyclax said:
UNC was 41st in the country in defensive efficiency last year. Given the schedule that's not horrible but it definitely was not excellent either. Was well behind Notre Dame and Duke for 3rd in the ACC. Cuse was 62nd, one of the very worst in Division 1.

Heels very strong on faceoffs with two capable guys and in goal with Krieg. Also solid rope unit with Maher, Wright et al. Gray is the linchpin. Ancillary attack pieces are fine, not spectacular. They don't need to be spectacular when they get to play with Gray though. It ALL comes down to midfield depth for them and being able to somehow make up for the loss of that veteran middie core.
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i mean, the top 4 are brown (who played 1 game? 2?), st bonnies, manhattan and siena. i'm going to guess it's not adjusted for sos. i can't see more than 7 or 8 defenses ahead of them even without sos i'd say might've been better. and probably less than that. maybe someone could make a case for 10 or 11. that list itself is reason not to weigh it much.

the orangemen, and a host of other teams, probably think their d was pretty good.
 
Zack80 said:
What is defensive efficiency?
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Goals allowed per possessions faced. Much, much, much better than goals allowed per game. Ideally we'd use adjusted defensive efficiency which is defensive efficiency that takes into account the strength of the opposing offense. So giving up 15 goals to Virginia is not the same as giving up 15 goals to NJIT. It's the best stat we got. Unfortunately I couldn't find it on the Lax Reference website but I know it's out there somewhere. Would be curious to see where UNC stacks up there, very likely better than #41 but would still be surprised it it's in the top tier among teams that played a full season.
 
nyclax said:
Goals allowed per possessions faced. Much, much, much better than goals allowed per game. Ideally we'd use adjusted defensive efficiency which is defensive efficiency that takes into account the strength of the opposing offense. So giving up 15 goals to Virginia is not the same as giving up 15 goals to NJIT. It's the best stat we got. Unfortunately I couldn't find it on the Lax Reference website but I know it's out there somewhere. Would be curious to see where UNC stacks up there, very likely better than #41 but would still be surprised it it's in the top tier among teams that played a full season.
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c'mon, nyc. look at the list. it's not much much better than anything if it's not adjusted.

no one with a straight face could list 12 teams in front of unc on that list as having a better defense. really, not even much more than half that.
 
wgdsr said:
c'mon, nyc. look at the list. it's not much much better than anything if it's not adjusted.

no one with a straight face could list 12 teams in front of unc on that list as having a better defense. really, not even much more than half that.
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Unadjusted is still vastly better than goals allowed, which is utterly devoid of all the context you need to actually evaluate a defense. At least unadjusted factors in how many times the defense had to play defense. That tells you something. Goals allowed is completely warped by a team's faceoff play, the strength of its offense, the style of its offense, pace of play, and a million other elements of the game. Unadjusted one big flaw is that it doesn't account for SOS, but you can say the same for basically every stat. Still has some value even if it's far from perfect.

Anyway, this discussion inspired me to pony up for a Lax Pro subscription. UNC was 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season.
 
nyclax said:
Goals allowed per possessions faced. Much, much, much better than goals allowed per game. Ideally we'd use adjusted defensive efficiency which is defensive efficiency that takes into account the strength of the opposing offense. So giving up 15 goals to Virginia is not the same as giving up 15 goals to NJIT. It's the best stat we got. Unfortunately I couldn't find it on the Lax Reference website but I know it's out there somewhere. Would be curious to see where UNC stacks up there, very likely better than #41 but would still be surprised it it's in the top tier among teams that played a full season.
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As you say strength of opposing offenses would matter.
Also, there are lots of different types of possessions for the defense:
-set 6 on 6.
-man down, 2 man down, man up.
-fast break, broken field - including FOs where the Face-off man wins cleanly and forward - and goes to the goal.
-Clearing - here the opponent doesn't get the ball up to other end of the field even

The number of these types possesions can be affected by the style of play of the teams.
In the end, this will throw a lot of "noise" into your "defensive efficiency" statistic.
 
goals allowed per possessions is a good start for developing a fair defensive profile and rating system; refinements suggested by z80 would bring us all closer to the truth. I think it's worth the work to find a relatively accurate rating.
 
Overreacting to a scrimmage, but maybe it’s not so hard for UNC to integrate a new midfield? They are scrimmaging Navy today.

 

14. SYRACUSE​

Owen Seebold, A, Sr.

In the penultimate game of the season, Seebold recorded seven points against Robert Morris. It was a glimpse of what could be for the attackman this year. — Katie McNulty

 
Zack80 said:
We get #5 Notre Dame today on laxmagazine:
www.usalaxmagazine.com

2022 NCAA Lacrosse Preview: No. 5 Notre Dame (Men)

Kevin Corrigan wants more Kavanaghs. Luckily for him, he has one of the best.
www.usalaxmagazine.com www.usalaxmagazine.com
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Can anyone with a grasp of advanced analytics explain the impact of Notre Dame's face-off prowess on their defensive performance last year? Most years Notre Dame has a great defense but lousy face-off play. Last year they seemed to have great defensive play but also great face-off play as well. I am curious since it seems like they will not have as dominant a face-off unit this year and they seem to be bringing in more transfers to their defense than ever before. It clearly worked with Kyle Thornton last year, but it feels like a different unit than the one that was run by Gerry Byrne for such a long time.
 
Powellfan said:
Can anyone with a grasp of advanced analytics explain the impact of Notre Dame's face-off prowess on their defensive performance last year? Most years Notre Dame has a great defense but lousy face-off play. Last year they seemed to have great defensive play but also great face-off play as well. I am curious since it seems like they will not have as dominant a face-off unit this year and they seem to be bringing in more transfers to their defense than ever before. It clearly worked with Kyle Thornton last year, but it feels like a different unit than the one that was run by Gerry Byrne for such a long time.
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my analytics are faceoffs won + successful clears + successful rides = possessions. not perfect, but close enough. good teams will generally be in low 30s to high 30s for the year on either side. not a perfect dispersion, of course. 10% drop in faceoffs will mean 3 more possessions 1st to other team.

so approx a goal each way. less if you discount it a bit for 6 v 6 vs successful rides, fast breaks (there really aren't that many off the faceoff). that won't matter against detroit mercy and maybe they continue to beat them at same /o pace but lose say 20% more to a unc where it can make things tough.

reynolds or the kid from lehigh should be able to replace thornton. replacing their 1st teamer not as easy. cochran did get several starts 2 years ago in 5 games and is back after a medical redshirt.

their freshman fogo lynch was one of the best in the country by ratings, but of course he is a freshman.
 
Powellfan said:
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After last season, I don't want to underestimate the Hoyas but number 4 seems high to me. Their schedule was relatively soft last year and will be somewhat tougher this year including an ACC team in ND so we shall see how they do. Goaltending stats for McElroy were good but...he faced several weak teams and was average to weak against UVA.
 
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