we’re gonna make the tournament

[Fly Rodder]

Fran needs to review his tweets before hitting send, because that's a mess. But I think I agree with him.

 

[FloridaFan]

We have a ton of toss up games. It isn’t realistic to expect to win most of them. I expect to lose to Duke, Louisville, FSU. The other 10 games we will mostly likely get 4-6 wins. Since SU always has a February slide, I do think 3-7 is more likely than 7-3. That being said I think we end up 17-15.

Always is a strong word my friend

 

[jncuse]

Agree on what you are saying but Syracuse is building or picking up momentum. We started off very poorly...see our early record. But we are picking up steam, playing better and just knocked off three teams that beat us over the last month. Momentum has to give us a plus!

IF we are looking at the probability of the team reaching 12-8 or 13-7... I agree we are on an upward trend to get there. Still a very hard task, but not totally improbable as it once seemed.

My comment above is based more on the probabilty of getting in IF we were 12-8.. not can we actually get there.

 

[Newhouser]

That is a pretty solid summary.

 

[syrBossHogg]

19% chance to get a bid per Team Rankings

Really need to beat one of Duke/Lville/FSU and avoid losing to BC/Wake/GT

 

[SUFan44]

19% chance to get a bid per Team Rankings

Really need to beat one of Duke/Lville/FSU and avoid losing to BC/Wake/GT

If we win all of our 50-50ish games, we will be 14-6 in the ACC. I think that gets us in regardless of not having a "marquee" win.

Pitt - 70% chance of winning per KenPom
@ Clemson - 46% (watched them barely beat Wake -- they aren't that good)
Duke - 26% (likely loss but not impossible at home)
Wake - 77%
NC State - 59%
@ Florida State - 23%
@ Louisville - 19%
GTech - 73%
@ Pitt - 45%
North Carolina - 75%
@ Boston College - 70%
@ Miami - 54%

If we win only the games we are favored (bolded), we will be 12-8 and firmly on the bubble. If we snag the other two 40%+ games on the road, I think we are definitely in.

 

[NineOneSeven]

We have a ton of toss up games. It isn’t realistic to expect to win most of them. I expect to lose to Duke, Louisville, FSU. The other 10 games we will mostly likely get 4-6 wins. Since SU always has a February slide, I do think 3-7 is more likely than 7-3. That being said I think we end up 17-15.

It's a reasonable take.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Always is a strong word my friend

Always is a strong word my friend

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games V Day on this year. If the prior trend continues, that doesn’t bode well.

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb 1 on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games late this year so we need to buck this trend.

 

[Geode]

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games V Day on this year. If the prior trend continues, that doesn’t bode well.

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb 1 on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games late this year so we need to buck this trend.

interesting stats. Wonder how much of the trend can be attributed to wear and tear on key starters playing 35+ mins/game. Even though player health is monitored I gotta think that eventually wears the body down. Flip side of that coin, if you play a deeper bench do you still have the wins that put you into position to make a tourney run. That's why JB is the coach and not us...

 

[Orange Barrel]

Baby steps - they’re growing by leaps and bounds...

 

[RF2044]

LOTS of work to be done before I'm comfortable stating that. We have some ground to make up given the lousy performance in the non-conference portion of the schedule.

BUT, this team has improved exponentially on both ends of the floor, and the opportunity is there in a weak [relatively speaking] ACC. Just win, baby.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games V Day on this year. If the prior trend continues, that doesn’t bode well.

Since joining the ACC we are 28-29 from Feb 1 on. From Valentines Day on we are 13-23. Pretty sure this happened in the Big East as well. We have a lot of games late this year so we need to buck this trend.

Different years/Different schedules.

This year we play 2 top 50 teams after Valentines day and last year we played 6.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

interesting stats. Wonder how much of the trend can be attributed to wear and tear on key starters playing 35+ mins/game. Even though player health is monitored I gotta think that eventually wears the body down. Flip side of that coin, if you play a deeper bench do you still have the wins that put you into position to make a tourney run. That's why JB is the coach and not us...

Will be interesting to see how we finish. We are a jump shooting team which could be an issue with tired legs. Will all the mins catch up to us? Could also explain the February swoon that seems to happen every year this millennium.

 

[Cuse1055]

I have a weird confidence that this team is going to go on a 2006 conference tourney run and win the ACC tournament.

 

[Trueblue25]

19% chance to get a bid per Team Rankings

Really need to beat one of Duke/Lville/FSU and avoid losing to BC/Wake/GT

We were below 6% before uva

 

[ForCuseSake]

Does the Selection Committee give greater weight to the last 10 games?

(Did they used to or am I having a senior moment?)

 

[Cusefan0307]

Does the Selection Committee give greater weight to the last 10 games?

(Did they used to or am I having a senior moment?)

that went away about 10-15 years ago.

 

[syrBossHogg]

We were below 6% before uva

Shows how much work is still needed even with a 4 game win streak

 

[Eric15]

I have a weird confidence that this team is going to go on a 2006 conference tourney run and win the ACC tournament.

We are so overdue for some conference tourney success. In the past decade we have only won more than one game in a conference tourney one time (2013).

 

[storange]

Still think we are more likely to end 15-17 then 19-14. The last few games have been an enjoyable ride. Hopefully we keep the momentum going.

I believe you said we wouldn’t sniff .500 for the next two seasons and if I confused you with another poster I apologize.

 

[djorange1989]

I think we need to go 8-4 with at least one of those wins being against Duke/FSU/'Ville and another quad 1 win, which could be at Pitt or at Clemson, based on both currently being right on that cut line of a top 75 road win. then win at least one game in the ACC tourney, and that could get us in. OOC was so dismal, we have to make up for it. no terrible losses(Ok State is looking pretty bad but not a horrible loss) but no good wins at all in OOC. we keep playing well we can certainly make a case as a team who jelled and turned into a solid team, but it's now overall body of work and not how you finish out

 

[Doc5120]

The fact I'm reading his thread without rolling my eyes is a good thing. The next 2 are ones we really have to have, and then roll it out against Duke and see what happens.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Looking forward to a blood fued vs Pitt

We almost Kansas-Kansas-State with Notre Dame. I am sure they will do with Pitt.