We need six wins this year

[PhatOrange]

Fired the last coach for 14 wins and one bowl game in 3 years with the prior coaches talent but most posters are cool with less than that for the next coaches 3 years. Doesn't make much sense to me. At some point there needs to be accountability for your actual record.

It makes sense to me because with HCDB I can see A) a plan and a vision B) progress both on the field and in recruiting C) a sharp guy who stays level headed and hasn’t wavered, D) total program CEO and E) intangibles, qualities from a guy who gets it.

With Shafer it was obvious in year 2 and 3 he had none of the above, and as the pressure got to him he became unhinged in press conferences and made crazy remarks about things like isis. Shafer was making zero forward progress and half his last class of recruits were D1AA. I can’t imagine where we’d be now if he got one more year.

I’m so confident in what I see from HCDB I’d give him a 10 year contract.

 

[OrangePA]

It makes sense to me because with HCDB I can see A) a plan and a vision B) progress both on the field and in recruiting C) a sharp guy who stays level headed and hasn’t wavered, D) total program CEO and E) intangibles, qualities from a guy who gets it.

With Shafer it was obvious in year 2 and 3 he had none of the above, and as the pressure got to him he became unhinged in press conferences and made crazy remarks about things like isis. Shafer was making zero forward progress and half his last class of recruits were D1AA. I can’t imagine where we’d be now if he got one more year.

I’m so confident in what I see from HCDB I’d give him a 10 year contract.

Mark Coyle wanted his own man at the HC position.

That was an important factor. That does not seem to be a real concern for John Wildhack.

In addition, the general belief in the Athletic Department in 2015 was, as you have observed, that Coach Shafer was not an effective CEO.

That, more than anything else, led to the decision to move in another direction.

 

[Dino2112]

Still concerned that theres fans who saw no improvement last year

That , and Dungey is this big injury risk ! I'd run alot too, if i could not trust that OL .

 

[nzm136]

WRONG. 3 years is not the norm.

3 years is what "continuity hires" like SMFS get, to show they can continue/build upon prior success, or not.
4-5 years is what a total rebuild hire gets, since you need that much time for everything to take hold.

Shafer had had zero statement wins in his 3 years, and poor recruiting, with no sign that any of that would ever change, so he was fired, and rightly so. That's what you do when continuity hires don't pan out.

Dino has already had 2 statement wins, including a generational win vs Clemson that we haven't seen since Mac's days THREE DECADES AGO. Recruiting is dramatically improved - we're running ACC-level size and speed out there now, vs. a lot of undersized MAC-level talent prior, plus we're finally building up some similar quality depth behind it.

Wildhack knows the deal. He knows what he has in Dino, and the direction the program is moving now.
There are only 2 scenarios where Dino doesn't get AT LEAST 4 years here:
1 - he gets hired away for more $ by a "better" program
2 - something illegal happens in the program, and he is fired because of it.

(#2 is pretty much only theoretical - we're just coming off NCAA investigations and sanctions, I honestly can't even imagine that sorta thing going on at SU ever, but especially in the wake of those sanctions.)

There may be a lot of fan grumbling if we don't win "X # of games this year" or "get to a bowl game", but thankfully Syverud and Wildhack make those hiring and firing decisions, and not fans.

The average tenure for an NCAA coach is 3.8 years, and that's including the huge successes who stick around for a long time. Take them out, and coaches last about 3 years. They either get fired, or they get hired away. You're theory about continuity hires vs. rebuild hires is probably true if you're talking about a school that's completely apathetic about football, like KU, but it isn't true for any school that wants to be competitive (I can list off about 10 colleges off of the top of my head - who do you have in mind?). Look at our own history. Did GRob get a 5 year blank check? Did SS? 5 years was the norm 30-40 years ago, but times have changes. 68% of coaches don't make it 5 years.

As for recruiting, I'll admit I like this class, and I like that we have a ~50 ranking with a small class (vs an anomaly where we have a billion scholarships for whatever reason), but our ranking has been extremely consistent since the 2012 season where Scott put took over a Marrone recruiting class at the last minute. We were bouncing around the 50's, and now we're in the low 50's. It's not like he signed a to 20 recruiting class.

"Dino has already had 2 statement wins..."

The flip to that is we also have 2 4-8 seasons, and in this hypothetical, we'd be looking at a 3rd in a row. What good is a signature win if all you do is finish 4-8?

"There are only 2 scenarios where Dino doesn't get AT LEAST 4 years here"

Nobody (at least not me) said that he wouldn't get 4 years. Either he gets a bowl this year, or he's on the hot seat for the next season and has to wow.

"...thankfully Syverud and Wildhack make those hiring and firing decisions, and not fans"

"Thankfully" is a strong word. SU FB has a long and storied history of shooting itself in its foot at the hands of the Chancellor and the Athletic Director. Additionally, you have no insights into their opinion. You're just projecting your own wishes into what they might do, and writing it off as fact to make yourself feel relieved. Admittedly, I don't have any special insights, either, but our past actions and actions of other similar programs are consistent w/ my beliefs.

 

[nzm136]

Completely disagree. There was tons of evidence of improvement through 8 or 9 games. The bottom fell out as our team was beat to hell and we had no depth. Beat Clemson and took Miami and FSU and LSU to the wire on the road...when have we ever done that? Miami and FSU are places that even some of our really good teams in the 90’s got pounded at.

I expect things to be significantly better in years 3-4 but if not, I’m not going to panic. We’re not going to get anyone better and we’re in no position to put anyone on the hot seat after 3-4 years regardless, unless we want to keep the cycle of suck going. This isn’t b-ball, it can take longer. Especially when you’re talking about one of the least talented P-5 teams over the last 4-5 years. Maybe the least. If it takes longer than 3-4 years, so what? We’ve sucked for 15.

You're just drinking Kool Aid.

"We’re not going to get anyone better and we’re in no position to put anyone on the hot seat after 3-4 years regardless"

The last 2 coaches that we fired were here less than 5 years, so we clearly are in a position to put someone on the hot seat after 3 years.

"We’re not going to get anyone better..."

We also won't find anyone much worse than 3 straight ~4-8 seasons.

"Miami and FSU are places that even some of our really good teams in the 90’s got pounded at."

I'm as excited about last season as the next guy, but that FSU team wasn't a Bobby Bowden 1990's team, and that Miami team wasn't a 'cheating like crazy' []_[] team. The '87-'01 teams would have beaten us.

"The bottom fell out as our team was beat to hell and we had no depth."

This will always be a problem. It's a result of the scheme. High tempo = more chances for an injury and more fatigue (which increases the likelihood of injuries AND exacerbates a lack of depth in and of itself)

I think that he has 3 years to make a bowl, or he has to wow in year 4. I expect him to, but pretending like he is above judgement for 5 years is absolutely drinking Kool Aid.

 

[nzm136]

^^^ I think your hearing some of us say year 4 is when you see a jump. You want to see the jump sustained in year 5. Potential path to 6 wins and bowl is possible in year 3 but there are a ton of unknowns with the most important being who is replacing the ~200 receptions and touchdowns of Ish and Erv? We have strong QB returning who is injury prone and a top tier 2nd year backup with zero game snaps...zero. (I think he will be great but we have no college game proof at this time). The oline should be better but we have a new coach there...so tbd and on defense we are playing all new linebackers...all of them. We ran short on depth last year and we are on the cusp of having better depth in 18. So overall there is a path if things go a certain way in 18 and the football gods smile on us but I think we see the jump in 19 and it duplicates in 20. Go Cuse!

To be completely honest, it's far from my decision, but I would be very content w/ a letdown year 5 if he can at least get us one good year and a clear upwards trajectory that leaves me hopeful for future years.

And to be clear, I expect him to do well. I really think that we can make a bowl this year (year 3), and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see 9 wins next year (year 4)

 

[nzm136]

100% disagree. I’d like to see your facts to back this up.

89/130 CFB coaches have a tenure of 0-4 years at the end of last season. A significant chunk of the rest are clearly settled coaches (i.e. 10+ years). Do the math.

There's actually a HUGE drop (25 coaches to 12) between years 2 and 3 because coaches who aren't cutting it are canned at the end of their 3rd year (occasionally sooner).

But look at our history. GRob didn't get 5, and neither did SS. Look at comparable programs. All the ones that I looked at either had a revolving door every 3-4 years, or they had an established coach.

The days of large blank checks are over.

 

[blizz]

The average tenure for an NCAA coach is 3.8 years, and that's including the huge successes who stick around for a long time. Take them out, and coaches last about 3 years. They either get fired, or they get hired away. You're theory about continuity hires vs. rebuild hires is probably true if you're talking about a school that's completely apathetic about football, like KU, but it isn't true for any school that wants to be competitive (I can list off about 10 colleges off of the top of my head - who do you have in mind?). Look at our own history. Did GRob get a 5 year blank check? Did SS? 5 years was the norm 30-40 years ago, but times have changes. 68% of coaches don't make it 5 years.

As for recruiting, I'll admit I like this class, and I like that we have a ~50 ranking with a small class (vs an anomaly where we have a billion scholarships for whatever reason), but our ranking has been extremely consistent since the 2012 season where Scott put took over a Marrone recruiting class at the last minute. We were bouncing around the 50's, and now we're in the low 50's. It's not like he signed a to 20 recruiting class.

"Dino has already had 2 statement wins..."

The flip to that is we also have 2 4-8 seasons, and in this hypothetical, we'd be looking at a 3rd in a row. What good is a signature win if all you do is finish 4-8?

"There are only 2 scenarios where Dino doesn't get AT LEAST 4 years here"

Nobody (at least not me) said that he wouldn't get 4 years. Either he gets a bowl this year, or he's on the hot seat for the next season and has to wow.

"...thankfully Syverud and Wildhack make those hiring and firing decisions, and not fans"

"Thankfully" is a strong word. SU FB has a long and storied history of shooting itself in its foot at the hands of the Chancellor and the Athletic Director. Additionally, you have no insights into their opinion. You're just projecting your own wishes into what they might do, and writing it off as fact to make yourself feel relieved. Admittedly, I don't have any special insights, either, but our past actions and actions of other similar programs are consistent w/ my beliefs.

I like this way better. First it's no way do we keep him for a 5th year if he doesn't have us in the ridiculous amount of wins column... now it's fire him after 3 years, no matter what.

 

[hungrychuck]

That , and Dungey is this big injury risk ! I'd run alot too, if i could not trust that OL .

Absolutely. I don’t know how you watch ED last year and come away with the take that he is fragile or injury prone.

One of the most durable college QBs I’ve ever seen. The foot thing was pure fluke.

 

[orangeinjersey]

Man, reading this thread, how scary is it to wonder if this Babers thing doesnt work out? Where do we go from there, yikes.

 

[RandomGuy]

It makes sense to me because with HCDB I can see A) a plan and a vision B) progress both on the field and in recruiting C) a sharp guy who stays level headed and hasn’t wavered, D) total program CEO and E) intangibles, qualities from a guy who gets it.

With Shafer it was obvious in year 2 and 3 he had none of the above, and as the pressure got to him he became unhinged in press conferences and made crazy remarks about things like isis. Shafer was making zero forward progress and half his last class of recruits were D1AA. I can’t imagine where we’d be now if he got one more year.

I’m so confident in what I see from HCDB I’d give him a 10 year contract.

While I agree 100% with your sentiment... Half of Shafer's 2015 class were not D1AA(2013 was worse). G5? Maybe. In his 3 years, he recruited 20 players that were basically 2 stars. Including Samuels, Cordy, and Hoff. All 2 stars are not 2 stars. Recruit, nearly, an entire class of 2 stars, in 3 years? There's your depth problem.

 

[Pyle]

Let's not fall into the classic verbal abuser trap..."I'm the best you'll ever find!"

This freaking out thing if Dino doesn't work out I just don't get. We're an ACC program and there's a lot of up and coming coaches out there. This mindset about Dino being all we have left is what keeps victims in abusive relationships because they start to believe this is the most they deserve. I want Dino to work, I'm tired of losing and don't want to hit the reset button, but sometime you gotta push a button...just not yet.

 

[sufandu]

They're all Dino's players after 3-4 years. You can't blame losses on a talent gap if you recruited (and developed) all of the players.

And once again, there is no evidence of promise until there is something other than hope to show for it. As of right now, the offense regressed in year 1 and probably bounced back in year 2. We've had 2 big upsets (VT and Clemson), a number of close games, several losses that sting (0-4? vs BC/WF in the last 2 years, MTSU, etc.), and back-to-back 4-8 campaigns.

That record is fine for years 1 & 2, but if there isn't improvement by year 3, it's crazy to not start asking questions, and a weak performance in year 3 + an anticlimactic year 4 = time to cut the line.

The above said, I fully expect Dino to do well, and I have no reason to think that he won't. But giving the guy unlimited get out of jail free cards isn't realistic.

I don't think anyone is giving him a get out of jail free card. They are pointing out that the rebuild is a tough one and there has been progress even if the record didn't show it. If people can't see that, they don't actually understand football.

Clearly these are not all of Dino's players yet. Nearly every true senior, redshirt junior, and redshirt senior on the roster preceded him. Are we supposed to expect Dino's freshman and sophomores to compete at a high level against peer team's juniors and seniors that were recruited by their coaches?

I'm hoping for 6-6 this year, but if we don't get it, I won't blindly use the record to judge the team. I'll look at team execution, which players were on the field, etc. to draw my conclusions.

My leash will get shorter in year 4, if we're still having this conversation.

 

[PhatOrange]

While I agree 100% with your sentiment... Half of Shafer's 2015 class were not D1AA(2013 was worse). G5? Maybe. In his 3 years, he recruited 20 players that were basically 2 stars. Including Samuels, Cordy, and Hoff. All 2 stars are not 2 stars. Recruit, nearly, an entire class of 2 stars, in 3 years? There's your depth problem.

His last class was 2016. I think HCDB only kept 4 kids and the ones he cut bait with I'm not sure even went G5.

His 2015 class was a good class.

 

[PhatOrange]

89/130 CFB coaches have a tenure of 0-4 years at the end of last season. A significant chunk of the rest are clearly settled coaches (i.e. 10+ years). Do the math.

There's actually a HUGE drop (25 coaches to 12) between years 2 and 3 because coaches who aren't cutting it are canned at the end of their 3rd year (occasionally sooner).

But look at our history. GRob didn't get 5, and neither did SS. Look at comparable programs. All the ones that I looked at either had a revolving door every 3-4 years, or they had an established coach.

The days of large blank checks are over.

Your whole argument is firing a coach if he's not successful after 3 or 4 years. So you can't include coaches in your numbers who've been hired away. Fired only. You said,

There's no way we give anyone a 5 year blanket pass. 3 is the norm, and 4 is generous.

He will have to have something other than moral victories to get to year 5. He needs 2 bowl appearances or a really great year 4.

Our history of GRob and Shafer is because they were trainwrecks. I mean comments about Little Engines that Could and Isis. Marrone was not in jeopardy and neither is HCDB regardless of his short term record. People with a brain know he's been handicapped and because they can see he's not a trainwreck he's going to get time to get his guys and implement his program.

The number of schools who turnover coaches quickly that actually find success has to be small. very small. Of course eventually the blind squirrel will find a nut and one of their revolving doors will find some success.

 

[RandomGuy]

His last class was 2016. I think HCDB only kept 4 kids and the ones he cut bait with I'm not sure even went G5.

His 2015 class was a good class.

Ahhh... Referring to what the 2016 class would have looked like... Ok then.

 

[JrodCuse]

There's no way we give anyone a 5 year blanket pass. 3 is the norm, and 4 is generous.

He will have to have something other than moral victories to get to year 5. He needs 2 bowl appearances or a really great year 4.

So we’re gonna fire him if we have another non bowl game this year? And get who? Another Scott Shaffer? Or Greg Robinson? This team was god awful just 3 years ago. This isn’t the nfl where you can go into free agency and fix your team. It takes several years to adjust and shape a roster. If we fire babers that would be one of the dumbest things we’ve ever done. You don’t hire someone to build your house then fire them just when they’ve finished laying the foundation.

 

[RandomGuy]

Your whole argument is firing a coach if he's not successful after 3 or 4 years. So you can't include coaches in your numbers who've been hired away. Fired only. You said,

There's no way we give anyone a 5 year blanket pass. 3 is the norm, and 4 is generous.

He will have to have something other than moral victories to get to year 5. He needs 2 bowl appearances or a really great year 4.

Our history of GRob and Shafer is because they were trainwrecks. I mean comments about Little Engines that Could and Isis. Marrone was not in jeopardy and neither is HCDB regardless of his short term record. People with a brain no he's been handicapped and because they can see he's not trainwreck he's going to get time to get his guys and implement his program.

The number of schools who turnover coaches quickly that actually find success has to be small. very small. Of course eventually the blind squirrel will find a nut and one of their revolving doors will find some success.

Someone posted an anatomy of successful rebuilds, at the end of the season. Wish I knew where it was...

The point was that it can take 4 or 5 years for a successful rebuilds. It was compelling proof, that IF the program is showing improvement, 3 years is not enough.

 

[gbo]

8-4

 

[Frozen]

8-4

I agree. I've got the game at Clemson marked down as an Orange W.

 

[RandomGuy]

Thanks to cuse309 for adding facts to the discussion.

I have researched this, and posted it in other threads. I looked at coaches that turned around programs that were as bad as Syracuse...i.e...consistently less than 6 wins a year over the course of 10-20 years. Schools like, Baylor pre Briles, Stanford pre Harbaugh, K-State pre Snyder, Virginia Tech pre Beamer, Cuse pre Mac, Wake before Clawson, Duke before Cutcliff, Washington
State pre Leach and plenty of others I'm forgetting. What I discovered was that none of the coaches won 6+ in their second year other than Leach. And in Leaches third year he took a step back and won 3, before winning 7+ every year since then. Coach Marrone was a winner in his second year as well, but also took a step back winning just 5 in year 3, before winning 8 in year 4. I didn't include him in my list of coaches to turn around a program, because we'll never know if he could have won 6+ consistently. I feel he could have, but we'll never know, so he din't exactly "turn around" the program. In almost every case a consistent record of 6+ wins isn't achieved until year 4, and some guys were able to win 6 in year 3. So far Dino is right where the majority of these other cats were in year 2.
Some coaches won more gamers in year 2 than in year 1. Some won more in year 1 than in year 2. Some coaches had the same record through 2 years like Clawson with back to back 3-9 seasons. I attribute a lot of this to a lack of depth following a departure. Decommits, and transfers abound, and the new coach is left filling positions with JUCOS, grad transfers, and kids with no other P5 offers. It takes a good 3-4 years to build some quality depth. That's probably why when coaches have been successful in rebuilds as big as this one, the tangible success in wins and losses doesn't happen until years 3,4, or even 5.

 

[RandomGuy]

cuse309

Coaches record through 4 years trying to rebuild teams with a long history of losing just like us.

Clawson 3-9, 3-9, 7-6, 7-5/6

Briles 4-8, 4-8, 7-6, 10-3

Harbaugh 4-8, 5-7, 8-5, 12-1

Snyder 1-10, 5-6, 7-4, 5-6

Beamer 2-9, 3-8, 6-4-1, 6-5

Mac 4-6-1, 2-9, 6-5, 6-5

Cutcliff 4-8, 5-7, 3-9, 3-9

Leach 3-9, 6-7, 3-9, 9-4

There are plenty more that fit this category.

Good to get 6 in year 3. Not the end of the world, if we don't.

 

[UnknownOrange]

You're just drinking Kool Aid.

"We’re not going to get anyone better..."

We also won't find anyone much worse than 3 straight ~4-8 seasons.

 

[anomander]

I think enough time has gone by to reflect on this past season. I am as confident as ever that Dino is the man for the job and it's just a matter of time before we are back to winning (at least 6 wins) on a regular basis. We saw what could be with the Clemson game. We also saw a team fight their a$$ off and compete on the road in some legendary road venues. What failed us was depth. Dino has had 2 classes. In those 2 classes, including transfers, he has quickly improved the overall size and athleticism. The only problem is those guys are still going to be young. Throw this past recruiting class in and you are going to see an even bigger improvement in size. I do want to see an improvement on offense. For being an offensive guru I have been a little surprised that the scoring hasn't been better. The yards are there, but they haven't turned into points. imo it could be a couple things. As I said yards haven't been an issue, but they have really struggled inside the red zone. I think the lack of a run game has really hurt the efficiency inside the 20. It looks like RB has been addressed this last recruiting(transfer) class. Let's see if we see some improvements inside the red zone.
The other factor, imo, may not be a popular one, but is QB play. Dungey is an absolute warrior, but he isn't the type of QB Dino prefers to run this offense. The short passing game requires a high % passer. Dungey is many things, but accuracy isn't one of his best attributes. I actually think a QB better suited for this system would improve the overall offense. Dungey is good enough where he can will us to 6 wins, but I don't think we will see this offense at it's best until there is a QB that can complete passes at an elite level/

 

[SmilinBob]

I saw them competitive until the end when they were wore down and beaten up. Depth and injuries are the keys once again. I give Babers 5 solid years but I have to see more improvement on the D's part this year and I think we will.