We need six wins this year

[Pyle]

Ha! To be honest, I don't remember if I was or not. I do think we're having two different discussions.

I def was not on the SS got fired unfairly after 3 years and so Dino should be judged by those same metrics. I think any AD worth his salt is taking in every possible metric to make these decisions, of which W/L is one. It gets more important the deeper you get into a coaches tenure, but I've maintained that this is the *the far more important question*: Do you think this coach has the program headed in the right direction?

The last three guys who were fired got fired for a "no" when that question was asked. Year 3 and losing record, would cause some ripples - but I don't think it would result in a no (unless it's coupled with a scandal or a 1 win year or something). There's enough momentum with VaTech in year 1, Clemson in year 2 (which someone called a "moral victory" in this thread!) and recruiting - that he's safe.

Coaches shouldn't get fired for W/L records... Fans would be smart in their analysis to use that same lens.

 

[qdawgg]

are we talking about the same class?

Dontea Strickland – starting TB
Eric Dungey – starting QB and best Syracuse QB since Donavan McNabb
Jake Pickard – in the 2 deep at DE
Cody Conway – starting LT
Chris Fredrick – starting CB
Evan Adams – starting RG
Sterling Hofrichter – starting kicker

Steven Clark – starting DT

Colin Byrne – former starting Center / 2 deep OL
Kielan Whitner – 2 deep LB
Shy Cullen
AJ Duerig
Tyrone Perkins

Daivon Ellison

Ted Taylor – 2 deep LB graduated stared 7 games

Strictly talking about on paper, we were referring to how DB's recruiting class looks significantly better. We can only compare that to how they ranked out when first committed. Should have prefaced it that way.

That class turned out to be a very good class and actually shows that in the very least, that year was a great recruiting year. Again, on paper, that class was horrid. Just look at the list of offers from other schools for about half the class.

 

[Pyle]

people are underestimating what the WR losses mean to this system,

So it's year 3 and you're saying DB hasn't recruited a WR better than SS recruited? That's an indictment on the staff. He should have been able to project a weakness there and take care of it. If we have massive falloff at the WR position this year then it's a problem, a Dino problem.

 

[gbo]

I have getting out of there alive marked as an Orange W.

The sea will be angry that day my friends.

This rivalry is getting intense.

 

[Pyle]

Strictly talking about on paper, we were referring to how DB's recruiting class looks significantly better. We can only compare that to how they ranked out when first committed. Should have prefaced it that way.

That class turned out to be a very good class and actually shows that in the very least, that year was a great recruiting year. Again, on paper, that class was horrid. Just look at the list of offers from other schools for about half the class.

Honestly this is why recruiting classes shouldn't be judged the way they are. I mean basically what you are saying is that despite the opinions of recruiting analysts and forum junkies, SS knew what he was doing and recruited guys who he thought could play? Again this is not meant as a defense of Shafer, more an indictment on how much weight is given to a class before they even get on campus. I've given up on the NFL draft minus the first 10 picks too. Show me who makes the 2-deep then we can judge talent.

 

[qdawgg]

If we are talking about metrics, this is pretty simple honestly. We need to score more TD's. I didn't look, I don't think I'm wrong but I could be but I remember our scoring numbers any way you looked at it were not very good. Our offense as a whole put up massive numbers, no surprise to anyone on here. If we can just become more efficient at scoring I think we can turn things around. If we are going to look at metrics, I think that metric alone is the single biggest metric between 4 wins and 6 wins last year. Obviously so many other factors that go into that; injuries, depth, etc.

But this is actually a positive. Get better at scoring and win more games. The offense is already there, so it's not like were saying, get better at offense and then score. We are at the finish line, we just didn't cross it enough last year. For me personally, despite being critical at times, I've always said I expect DB to make this work.

 

[Alsacs]

It’s quite simple.
We used to have a clown show as a HC and coaching staff.
Thus no patience or trust.
This HC isn’t a clown show and is cleaning up a mess.
Thus I have patience and trust.
I believe in Dino and thus W/L record needs to improve but we had such a talent problem I am patient.

Scott Shafer’s hiring set the program back 5 years. Dino is cleaning that up and the schedule isn’t going to be as insane nonconference wise.

 

[qdawgg]

Honestly this is why recruiting classes shouldn't be judged the way they are. I mean basically what you are saying is that despite the opinions of recruiting analysts and forum junkies, SS knew what he was doing and recruited guys who he thought could play? Again this is not meant as a defense of Shafer, more an indictment on how much weight is given to a class before they even get on campus. I've given up on the NFL draft minus the first 10 picks too. Show me who makes the 2-deep then we can judge talent.

You're absolutely right. We had an interesting thread on here a long time ago, might have been going back to Marrone or the "transition" from Marrone to Shafer. There was an article that explained how a coach at a decent sized D1 school, the entire staff relied on one recruiting site to determine who they would offer based on stars. After like 4 years I think the recruiting classes were well ranked nationally but the record was terrible and the coaching staff was let go.

Now, regardless of that, a high % of 5 star players (there are less 5 star players though) are likely to make an impact proportionally than 3 star players at their college. The same is true of 4 star players. You will find a 2 star player that becomes something, or a nobody like Bromley. But they are the outliers and it's rare that a player like Bromley turns into the player he did. The gray area is the 3 star players. That's where a good coaching staff makes a difference. Not only do they find the right 3 star players but they find the right players for their system.

At the end of the day it comes down to the recruiting staff being able to find the right players and land them, not just any 3 - 4 star player.

 

[Orangello]

So it's year 3 and you're saying DB hasn't recruited a WR better than SS recruited? That's an indictment on the staff. He should have been able to project a weakness there and take care of it. If we have massive falloff at the WR position this year then it's a problem, a Dino problem.

I didn't say that at all.

 

[TheCusian]

Just like it's interesting that the same arguments used to defend Babers didn't work with Shafer either. Fact is Shafer came pretty close to beating some damned good teams his last year. That's not a defense, just pointing out some of the hypocrisy used. People seem to think Babers moral victories are somehow more meaningful that Shafers.

I think his actual victories are more meaningful than Shafers, lol.

Shafer in year 3 was trending down, recruiting was worse, he was unsteady and imploding. Babers, going into year 3 has none of those things. That of course means we should measure the two equally in the first place.

 

[Pyle]

I didn't say that at all.

You said that people are underestimating the losses. That means you don't believe we can fill the gaps, that means SS recruited better at WR. I fail to see where the logic breaks down on this one. For the record I don't think we will fall off much at WR but since everyone thinks that SS's recruiting was horrible I found it very odd that you don't think DB is able to fill those shoes.

 

[gbo]

You're absolutely right. We had an interesting thread on here a long time ago, might have been going back to Marrone or the "transition" from Marrone to Shafer. There was an article that explained how a coach at a decent sized D1 school, the entire staff relied on one recruiting site to determine who they would offer based on stars. After like 4 years I think the recruiting classes were well ranked nationally but the record was terrible and the coaching staff was let go.

Now, regardless of that, a high % of 5 star players (there are less 5 star players though) are likely to make an impact proportionally than 3 star players at their college. The same is true of 4 star players. You will find a 2 star player that becomes something, or a nobody like Bromley. But they are the outliers and it's rare that a player like Bromley turns into the player he did. The gray area is the 3 star players. That's where a good coaching staff makes a difference. Not only do they find the right 3 star players but they find the right players for their system.

At the end of the day it comes down to the recruiting staff being able to find the right players and land them, not just any 3 - 4 star player.

Any coach worth his salt is not using a recruiting site to identify and evaluate. Those sites are just for people like us. I don't doubt it happens though.

 

[Pyle]

I think his actual victories are more meaningful than Shafers, lol.

Shafer in year 3 was trending down, recruiting was worse, he was unsteady and imploding. Babers, going into year 3 has none of those things. That of course means we should measure the two equally in the first place.

I won't disagree with the unsteady thing. I believe he was fully aware what a short leash he had under Director Gopher and yeah I think it rattled him big time. I just want accountability. I'm tired of hearing excuses. I don't want Dino fired, I want him held accountable. Let me also clarify, I'm talking about the fans. DinoIS holding himself accountable from what I see. The guy takes responsibility for just about everything happening out there. The bucks stops with him and he embraces it.

 

[TheCusian]

Wise words from a great coach. But they don't work as well here and is an example of how we simplifying a complex question into something more manageable can get good coaches fired.

Syracuse vs last years schedule: 4-8
Syracuse vs last years Giants schedule: 0-16 (and probably forfeited the last 15)

In the NFL schedules are more balanced, therefore records are more telling. In CFB it's def not the case. Year 2 SoS for Marrone was in the 100's - year 2 SoS for Babers was in the top 20. Which team was better?

So it's more "You are what the deep analytics factoring in strength of schedule says you are"

 

[TheCusian]

I won't disagree with the unsteady thing. I believe he was fully aware what a short leash he had under Director Gopher and yeah I think it rattled him big time. I just want accountability. I'm tired of hearing excuses. I don't want Dino fired, I want him held accountable. Let me also clarify, I'm talking about the fans. DinoIS holding himself accountable from what I see. The guy takes responsibility for just about everything happening out there. The bucks stops with him and he embraces it.

I hear ya. But fans have limited ways to make coaches accountable. It's usually with their wallets and eyeballs.

We trust Wildhack to do that. I see no reason to trust that it's not happening.

 

[Pyle]

Wise words from a great coach. But they don't work as well here and is an example of how we simplifying a complex question into something more manageable can get good coaches fired.

Syracuse vs last years schedule: 4-8
Syracuse vs last years Giants schedule: 0-16 (and probably forfeited the last 15)

In the NFL schedules are more balanced, therefore records are more telling. In CFB it's def not the case. Year 2 SoS for Marrone was in the 100's - year 2 SoS for Babers was in the top 20. Which team was better?

So it's more "You are what the deep analytics factoring in strength of schedule says you are"

NFL Schedule are NOT balanced!!!! They are simply designed to get every team to play every other team at equal intervals. The fact the divisions get pitted against other divisions is absolutely not balanced. For the NFC North, who got matched up with the South, it was a brutal schedule.

 

[TheCusian]

This rivalry is getting intense.

View attachment 122386

I want to be good enough that we can make a wager about you guys wearing all purple the year after you lose to us. All the orange belongs to us.

 

[TheCusian]

NFL Schedule are NOT balanced!!!! They are simply designed to get every team to play every other team at equal intervals. The fact the divisions get pitted against other divisions is absolutely not balanced. For the NFC North, who got matched up with the South, it was a brutal schedule.

*more* balanced than college

 

[Pyle]

I want to be good enough that we can make a wager about you guys wearing all purple the year after you lose to us. All the orange belongs to us.

As long as we don't have to wear battleship gray.

 

[gbo]

I want to be good enough that we can make a wager about you guys wearing all purple the year after you lose to us. All the orange belongs to us.

I could get on board something like that. We need to play for some kind of trophy. Maybe we can convince the Orange Bowl to give up the name for our rivalry.

 

[Orangello]

You said that people are underestimating the losses. That means you don't believe we can fill the gaps, that means SS recruited better at WR. I fail to see where the logic breaks down on this one.

I know what I said and it most assuredly doesn't mean what you're trying to twist it to say in order to fit your narrative. If you can't see the complete absence of logic in your non-sequitar, I'd suggest starting with Aristotle's on Sophistical Refutations.

 

[IthacaMatt]

are we talking about the same class?

Dontea Strickland – starting TB
Eric Dungey – starting QB and best Syracuse QB since Donavan McNabb
Jake Pickard – in the 2 deep at DE
Cody Conway – starting LT
Chris Fredrick – starting CB
Evan Adams – starting RG
Sterling Hofrichter – starting kicker

Steven Clark – starting DT

Colin Byrne – former starting Center / 2 deep OL
Kielan Whitner – 2 deep LB
Shy Cullen
AJ Duerig
Tyrone Perkins

Daivon Ellison

Ted Taylor – 2 deep LB graduated stared 7 games

So that's 10 guys out of 25 who contributed. There are some good players, but that's not a great class, in my opinion. You can't bat 40% on whether a kid you offer a scholarship is ever going to be a contributor.

 

[Trueblue25]

I love the optimism, but I see 2018 as 6-6 and 2019 as possibly 8-4.

If we’re 6-6 next year and McKinley Williams makes a big jump with some of the younger d babers kids... i could see us being a 9 win team in 2019

 

[sufandu]

I'm in on Babers still as I don't think any coach at this program should be given less than 5 years due to the inherent difficulties in building a consistent winner while looking at the large hurdles this program faces now and in the future.

However, I find it very interesting that the most fervent Babers diehards totally avoid any discussion of a W-L record as a measure of success/failure. Not one poster answered any of the questions in my original post regaeding the same. Instead, they state how a fan who doesn't see how much better we are simply doesn't understand football or they use the tired argument that its all HCSS fault. In this thought process HCDB avoids all accountability for the team's actual record. The total failure to state any future expectations allows the yearly analysis to move to subjective measures which can continually change. Hence, the blank check comments from some.

I am genuinely interested, as I was when he was hired, as to how HCDB will be measured as a success/failure in the W/L column and when those columns are meaningful to some, if ever. It seems to be a conversation most don't want to have for whatever reasons.

Btw, I'm pretty sure you were a winning record by Year 3 guy originally. Kudos to you for actually having the discussion.

Completely untrue. I established expectations with regard to both record and looking beyond the record within my posts. I also pushed back on your insistence on ignoring the context within which different coach's records are established and compared. If you're incapable of seeing or choose not to see the difference between the status of the program and conference division when SS took over and when DB took over and then which direction the team has trended with each one, there's nothing more for me to say.

 

[CbusCuse]

You said that people are underestimating the losses. That means you don't believe we can fill the gaps, that means SS recruited better at WR. I fail to see where the logic breaks down on this one. For the record I don't think we will fall off much at WR but since everyone thinks that SS's recruiting was horrible I found it very odd that you don't think DB is able to fill those shoes.

First of all lets not forget that Amba was a Babers get so he did fill a need initially very nicely. But I think we will have a blip of slightly less talent at WR in 2018. But come on regarding "that means SS recruited better at WR". The situation has little to do with Babers ability to recruit the WR position. The future looks bright at that spot. Babers "first" class was 2016 and he had very little time to finish it off. He was unable to get a real solid WR in that initial class but Butler still has a chance. I'll admit though that was a little surprising to me as I thought he'd be able bring in a stud even in the shortened time frame. However his 2017 and 2018 classes look great at WR to me. Despite that replacing Ish and Erv next year is still going to be difficult because Babers first full recruiting class of WR's will basically be RS frosh. I do think you see at least one of his guys break out this year though, just not to the level of a Senior Ish or Amba. But you can't expect that from guys so young. My money is on Sharrod breaking out first but I could see RTB or Nykeim doing so as well. If they are not replaced its more likely because Shafer's senior and redshirt senior class of WR's didn't perform ...or make it to campus. Hello KJ Williams and Corey Cooper.