Discussion in 'Syracuse Football Board' started by MadNY3, Feb 10, 2018.
You’re a numbers guy. Improvement can be found outside of W/L.
Bottom line is this: if you were happy with Marrone after two, you should be over the moon about Babers in year two.
Babers has done more (1 top 25 upset, 1 top 5 upset) against a harder schedule.
(Things didn’t *really* click for Marrone until year 4, but the signs were there. Same with Babers - but with better recruiting)
The schools history plays no role. New Chancellor, new AD, new conference (new $), new BoT members, etc.
We should look no further than the other teams in our division: NC State, Wake, and even *shudder* BC. Year 4.
When you have Clemson and FSU on your schedule AND have a modest history (especially recently) - schools are wise to give 4+ years if they see enough signs. And they are there for Babers 1000%.
I get all that but the program needs a Bowl game period. I cannot imagine people will be ok with another 4-8 season no matter the optics, recruiting, etc. At some point this school needs to turn it around with wins and more importantly, success in November. We have wilted in past Novembers b/c our depth is atrocious. That should be resolved w a few Dino classes now.
BC, who we have roasted the past 5 years, have gone to 4 bowl games in that period. That's our barometer. They have figured out a way to get strong in November with equal talent and to everyone on this board, an inferior coach. Well is he? At some point Bill Parcells is right, you are what you are. I have faith in Dino to get us to 7-8 wins this year. If we don't even get to 6 wins this year, I think we have a right, as fans, to question the direction of the program and who Dino has brought in to direct this thing.
That seems like the right metric -- how are we doing compared to BC. I would add Pitt, Wake, and outside the ACC, Rutgers.
At this point, you have to look to factors other than w/l. Is the recruiting trending in the right direction? Is Dino winning his share of head to head battles in landing recruits? Is the staff (including S&C) what we want to see? Is the roster improved compared to what Dino inherited? Does Dino provide the face and tone to our program that we want to see, when he is interviewed & when he is featured at alumni events? Is the program relatively free of disruptions, academic casualties, misadventures with the law? In every category, Dino earns high marks (with the notable exception of the w/l record in November).
As for W/L, the roster and the two deep in particular looks stronger than any we have had, with the possible exception of 2012. The QB position is solid and deeper than it has been. The lines on both sides are better. We have open questions at WR and LB, but we also have young, promising players in the ranks in those units. So, Dino has set the table -- and good things will follow.
As for W/L, the roster and the two deep in particular looks stronger than any we have had, with the possible exception of 2012. The QB position is solid and deeper than it has been. The lines on both sides are better. We have open questions at WR and LB, but we also have young, promising players in the ranks in those units. So, Dino has set the table -- and good things will follow.[/QUOTE]
I think a sober view is appropriate: The QB position is the same in that the starting QB can't seem to stay healthy (not all his fault - I'm looking at you OL) and is backed up by a RS freshman who has never taken a snap, the OL is the same except that Roberts returns - maybe they are better, but we will see, the DL is perhaps a bit deeper but roughly the same, and yes, WRs & LBs are basically an unknown quantity. Until we see them on the field, we won't know if the roster is "stronger."
I'm in on Babers still as I don't think any coach at this program should be given less than 5 years due to the inherent difficulties in building a consistent winner while looking at the large hurdles this program faces now and in the future.
However, I find it very interesting that the most fervent Babers diehards totally avoid any discussion of a W-L record as a measure of success/failure. Not one poster answered any of the questions in my original post regaeding the same. Instead, they state how a fan who doesn't see how much better we are simply doesn't understand football or they use the tired argument that its all HCSS fault. In this thought process HCDB avoids all accountability for the team's actual record. The total failure to state any future expectations allows the yearly analysis to move to subjective measures which can continually change. Hence, the blank check comments from some.
I am genuinely interested, as I was when he was hired, as to how HCDB will be measured as a success/failure in the W/L column and when those columns are meaningful to some, if ever. It seems to be a conversation most don't want to have for whatever reasons.
Btw, I'm pretty sure you were a winning record by Year 3 guy originally. Kudos to you for actually having the discussion.
Until I see otherwise, I'll assume another Nov fall off. I think our tempo/system has alot to do with the team not finishing out strong against this schedule. So that being said, to reach a bowl we need 6 out of our first 8. I see 3 cooked in wins, that means we need to steal 3 from FSU/Clem/Pitt/NC/NCST. If we go bowling this year, it's because of one of two things...we have either reached the upper middle of the ACC or we've figured out how to win in Nov. Either one and Dino wins.
Buuuuut, another 4-8 season means we aren't progressing like we should. Even if you like the press conferences, the recruiting stuff, the 'system', if it's producing the same exact results after 3 years then something's broken in the machine. Mac was over .500 by year 3, Marrone was over .500 by year 2, fell off in year 3 but had at least given us a taste. The very simple fact is that Dino needs to, at a bare minimum, finish the regular season at .500 and lose a bowl game just to equal SS's 3 year mark of 14-23. Let that sink in. Another 4-8 season means Dino's record at SU is 12-24. Looking at the records of most SU coaches after 3 years...well that doesn't put him in very good company, right between Maloney and SS.
So what's the answer if we don't get to a bowl game, start over again?
If you want to look at BC, you need to do it with proper perspective. Addazio took over a team that was only 2 years removed from over a decade of winning football, including multiple 9+ win seasons. The perception of the program was different than what DB came into. Addazio has had 11 guys drafted since he took over including 7 the first two years (probably the previous coaches players). Contrast that with us having 3 over the same time period, the only one under DB being a punter. Addazio took over a more talented team than DB. We should see an uptick in depth this year, but Dino's players are all freshman and sophomores.
We need to look beyond the record to see progress. If the team is 4-8 this year, we get blown out more often, we look disfunctional on defense, and the offense doesn't improve in the redzone, then there is cause for concern.
If we're 4-8 but score more points on offense, give up fewer big plays on defense, especially late in the season, and have no double digit losses, that's progress. Year 4 is where I'll ramp up my expectations more. By then, Dino's first full class will be upperclassmen and the sophomores, along with our two highly rated transfers, should be ready to contribute more.
If all we do is look at records, why even bother watching the games? Just check out the summary the next day.
I see three games we should absolutely win this coming year, WMU, Wagner, and UConn. Who should we comsider on the same level as us going into the year, Pitt and BC? Everyone else seems to be one step ahead of us. Hopefully the QB losses at WF and Louisville bring them back to us a bit. But we likely need to win 3 out of those 4 to get to 6. How do we evaluate UNC? Are they really a 3-9 team we should see as a peer or are they a team that gets healthy and may be that one step ahead of us. Then there are the likely losses of Clemson, FSU, and ND. Clemson is Clemson, can we really take them down two years in a row? Does FSU stumble out of the gates with a new coach or is he a guy that injects new energy into a talented roster with it's NFL qb returning from injury? Then there is Notre Dame, who should have a lot more talent than us.
If things break our way with us staying healthy and some other teams falling off I could see 8 wins (the three underdogs, Pitt and BC, UNC, either Louisville or NC State, and an unexpected upset of the big 3). If the teams we hope come back to us keep progressing and the big dogs don't miss a beat, I'd be disappointed but hopeful in the direction of the program with 5 wins.
I'm far from a guru but my gut says 60/40 odds against us getting to 6-6 this year.
I hate the whole cumulative record thing. SS took over a bowl winning team and rode the coat tails to 7 wins his first year. Dino took over the mess he left behind when he wasn't good enough to at least maintain what he was given.
Since SS's first year the division has gotten tougher with WF, BC, and NC State all getting better (WF 4-8, NC State 3-9 in 2013) along with the addition of Louiville.
Again, you have to look beyond the records.
6 wins and a top 40 class and i’ll chain myself to the dome until he gets a significant extension.
Don’t force my hand SU
It's hard for me to see 6 or more wins this year. Dungey can't make it through a season, people are underestimating what the WR losses mean to this system, and while I like to believe the D overall can't be worse than last year, I don't see the quantum leap in that unit necessary to get us to a winning record. There is a very steep learning curve in this conference and youth is at a decided disadvantage. I do believe we'll have a legit running game this year.
That said, I don't think HCDB is going anywhere for 5 years and I'm fine with that. Recruiting is trending the right way, he's a leader and his willingness to change/fix things that aren't working are the three things that gives me hope this gets turned around before his 5 years are up.
I love the optimism, but I see 2018 as 6-6 and 2019 as possibly 8-4.
It was 2 years ago that the defense was so awful - Babers' first year.
Last year we improved by 28 yards per game (YPG) in passing yards allowed.
We improved by 28 YPG in rushing defense.
Total improvement was from 501 YPG allowed to 444 YPG - a 12% decrease.
We gave up 2.2 fewer first downs per game and 77 fewer points, a decrease of 6.4 points per game.
We made improvements last year. This year, I expect that both lines will be much better, and that should translate statistically.
I have getting out of there alive marked as an Orange W.
The sea will be angry that day my friends.
I haven't. I'm also not delusional. I think the bar this year is set at 6-6. We MUST make a bowl game, or it's going to get awfully hard to sell a rebuild after 3 years to recruits. The schedule is somewhat easier than it was last year, but it won't be until 2019 that it becomes truly easier. I think 8-4 in 2019 is doable.
If we're not .500 or better, everybody that's a part of the Syracuse University Team, Admin, Staff & players will be extremely disappointed.
Fandom is typically a more irrational endeavor than playing and coaching, I guarantee you that nobody in that room thinks anything less than .500 is even remotely close to acceptable in 2018.
That 2015 class was not good IMO. Almost last in the ACC, the overall stars of each player actually looked better on paper even being the 13th ranked class in the ACC. At least 30% and possibly closer to 40% of that class had no offers, very limited offers, and multiple offers from the likes of Central Michigan, Toledo, Nevada, Temple, Stony Brook.... and we were their best offer.
And it's interesting some of the same posters used the same logic to defend Shafer almost to the very end.
I agree. But I don't think "people" will get Dino fired this year if he goes 4-8. He's got more time than most and rightly so. Like Marrone, Clawson, Doreen, TheDude - he's got a steep hill to climb.
As an aside - fans have a right to question the direction of the program minute to minute - as we do here. The important voice is Wildhack's. I'd bet his expectations and Babers are quite similar. But I also don't see Wildhack saying "it's year 3, we need .500 or he's out" ... Just not reality.
are we talking about the same class?
Dontea Strickland – starting TB
Eric Dungey – starting QB and best Syracuse QB since Donavan McNabb
Jake Pickard – in the 2 deep at DE
Cody Conway – starting LT
Chris Fredrick – starting CB
Evan Adams – starting RG
Sterling Hofrichter – starting kicker
Steven Clark – starting DT
Colin Byrne – former starting Center / 2 deep OL
Kielan Whitner – 2 deep LB
Ted Taylor – 2 deep LB graduated stared 7 games
Ha! To be honest, I don't remember if I was or not. I do think we're having two different discussions.
I def was not on the SS got fired unfairly after 3 years and so Dino should be judged by those same metrics. I think any AD worth his salt is taking in every possible metric to make these decisions, of which W/L is one. It gets more important the deeper you get into a coaches tenure, but I've maintained that this is the *the far more important question*: Do you think this coach has the program headed in the right direction?
The last three guys who were fired got fired for a "no" when that question was asked. Year 3 and losing record, would cause some ripples - but I don't think it would result in a no (unless it's coupled with a scandal or a 1 win year or something). There's enough momentum with VaTech in year 1, Clemson in year 2 (which someone called a "moral victory" in this thread!) and recruiting - that he's safe.
Coaches shouldn't get fired for W/L records... Fans would be smart in their analysis to use that same lens.
Just like it's interesting that the same arguments used to defend Babers didn't work with Shafer either. Fact is Shafer came pretty close to beating some damned good teams his last year. That's not a defense, just pointing out some of the hypocrisy used. People seem to think Babers moral victories are somehow more meaningful that Shafers.
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