Jake
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Again, it’s an opinion / prediction. Stop trying to shout people down by claiming your opinions are fact. It’s really not hard to comprehend.,
We need to get the fifth seed of ACC tournament.
- Thread starter blust2i3d4
- Start date
I want to win out and reach the ACCT finals.
It’s just our resume sucks this year,
The league is down. We don’t have wins over tournament teams.
There are a lot of other teams that arent in the projected fields with more wins.
Committees typically care about
Nonconference resumes
Road/neutral wins
Good wins over tournament teams.
Syracuse has nothing in the first one.
Good road conference record.
Not good record on the last one.
Beating Virginia x2, One of Duke/UL/FSU is not a NCAAT at-large resume.
Look at a team like UCLA.
They aren’t projected in the field but they just won at Colorado today.
They beat Utah and Arizona on the road their last 3 games.
Those wins at Arizona and Colorado are better than our resume.
Georgetown isn’t in the field.
They beat Texas, at Oklahoma State, at SMU and us in the conference, they won at Butler.
Their resume is better than ours and they aren’t in the field.
Our resume is not good just because we beat Pitt, UNC, BC, Miami project Wake, UVA and UL.
The numbers just aren’t there but it’s not a fact so I was wrong. They got that. It’s not a stone cold fact. It’s just common sense analyzing the numbers .
obliterata
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7 conference road wins would be more than all the other bubble teams, at the very least that gets us on the bubble. That might not be enough but you can't just say we have no chance of getting a bid.
1 of the 7 would be over teams in the NCAAT field.
We would be on the bubble of course.
It’s just not enough.
You got to beat NCAAT teams.
We made the field last year because we won at Duke and at Ohio State. Both of whom were NCAAT teams.
Plus we beat Georgetown, Louisville and other solid teams.
We need good wins.
Road wins are good but we need resume wins.
I’ve set no expectations on getting an at-large bid. Just haven’t beaten the good teams. Next 4 games are about improving ACC seed and improving for the conference tournament. I’m treating that Conference tournament like the NCAAs, just win and advance.
With how down the ACC is, this is the year for a middle of the pack team to win the thing. Hopefully Cuse is that team.
With how down the ACC is, this is the year for a middle of the pack team to win the thing. Hopefully Cuse is that team.
sutomcat
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Remaining schedule...
At Pittsburgh
Pitt has lost 4 in a row and has 2 wins in their last 9 games. They are a mess.
Home against UNC
UNC has unbelievably not gotten a win yet in February. They have lost 7 in a row. Cole Anthony came back and made a bad team worse.
At BC
BC is 4-8 in their last 12 games. Finishing the season very poorly.
At Miami
Miami has won 3 in a row but against the dregs of the conference. They lost 7 of 8 just before that.
19-12, 12-8 isn’t great but if we can get there and get a couple wins in the ACCT, we could sneak in. Stranger things have happened.
Beating a team that had won 5 of 7 is a nice win. Hopefully the team can build on this and establish the momentum they had a while back.
At Pittsburgh
Pitt has lost 4 in a row and has 2 wins in their last 9 games. They are a mess.
Home against UNC
UNC has unbelievably not gotten a win yet in February. They have lost 7 in a row. Cole Anthony came back and made a bad team worse.
At BC
BC is 4-8 in their last 12 games. Finishing the season very poorly.
At Miami
Miami has won 3 in a row but against the dregs of the conference. They lost 7 of 8 just before that.
19-12, 12-8 isn’t great but if we can get there and get a couple wins in the ACCT, we could sneak in. Stranger things have happened.
Beating a team that had won 5 of 7 is a nice win. Hopefully the team can build on this and establish the momentum they had a while back.
pretty much until most of the bid leagues conference tournaments are decided , there is no point in getting worked up about whether we can make it or not as until then you dont know many spots will be available at the end. Im a realist though the team this year has very few signature wins, but keep winning games and it may be enough as committee members will see x number of wins vs another team with a few less wins, even though there wins are better and put us in, its subjective to every member to vote as they see fit
That is correct. We have no idea what the bubble will look like this year.
Consigliere
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No worries. Just name the 36 teams that would get at large bids over us in that scenario and we can put the whole thing to rest.
ACC at-larges
3 from
Duke/Louisville/Florida State/Virginia
Big XII
3 from
Baylor/Kansas/West Virginia/Texas Tech
Big East
4 from
Seton Hall/Villanova/Butler/Marquette/ Creighton
Big Ten
8 from Michigan State/ Maryland/ Penn State/ Iowa/ Illinois/ Rutgers/ Ohio State / Michigan / Wisconsin
PAC-12
3 from Oregon/ Arizona/ Colorado/ Arizona State
SEC
3 from Auburn/ Kentucky/ LSU/ Florida
American
2 from Cincinnati/ Houston/ Wichita State
WCC
2 from Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s/ BYU
A-10
2 from Dayton/ Rhode Island/ Richmond
That right there is 30 of 36 at-larges
Then you got the following teams ahead of us
NC State
Oklahoma
Xavier
Georgetown
Providence
Indiana
Purdue
UCLA
USC
Stanford
Arkansas
Alabama
Mississippi State
South Carolina
Memphis
That right there 15 teams competing for the last 6 at-larges without even putting us on the bubble.
Also doesn’t include other midmajors for the bubble and assumes San Diego State wins it’s conference tournament and automatic bid.
So there you go.
Have you looked at the bubble out of 25 bubble teams like five of them have a win better than us maybe four
Orijinal
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Wait, wait, wait. If Syracuse has 22 wins, that means they won out the regular season and won 3 ACCT games. That's not enough? What are we talking about here?
blust2i3d4
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I have a feeling that Rutgers and Illinois will lose at least four games in the next three weeks. They will either finish 10-10 or 9-11 in B1G and they don't have good OOC wins and have lost to bottom ACC team in ACC-B1G challenge. Hard to imagine they get NCAA tournament invitation.
Last edited:
ACC at-larges-3 from
Duke/Louisville/Florida State/Virginia
Big XII-3 from
Baylor/Kansas/West Virginia/Texas Tech
Big East-4 from
Seton Hall/Villanova/Butler/Marquette/ Creighton
Big Ten-8 from Mi St/ Maryland/ PState/ Iowa/ Illinois/ Rutgers/ Ohio St Michigan / Wisconsin
PAC-12
3 from Oregon/ Arizona/ Colorado/ Arizona State
SEC
3 from Auburn/ Kentucky/ LSU/ Florida
American
2 from Cincinnati/ Houston/ Wichita State
WCC
2 from Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s/ BYU
A-10
2 from Dayton/ Rhode Island/ Richmond
That right there is 30 of 36 at-large
drop it down to 25 or 26
2)Rhode Island and Richmond not locks and have bad losses
3)Cincinnati lost to colgate lost c floridia UConn Tulane bowling green
4(Rutgers—18-9 lost 4/6
5)Oklahoma
6)Purdue
following teams ahead of us
NC State17-10
Oklahoma-16-11
Xavier17-10
Georgetown losing to DePaul
Provide lost toCharleston LBch State Nwst Penn
Indiana17-9
Purdue—lost 5 in row
UCLAlost to cal state Fullerton,Hofstra
USC19-8
Stanford17-9
Arkansas17-10
Alabama15-13
Mississippi State17-10
South Carolina 16-11 lost 2 in a row
Memphis-lost 3-5
Duke/Louisville/Florida State/Virginia
Big XII-3 from
Baylor/Kansas/West Virginia/Texas Tech
Big East-4 from
Seton Hall/Villanova/Butler/Marquette/ Creighton
Big Ten-8 from Mi St/ Maryland/ PState/ Iowa/ Illinois/ Rutgers/ Ohio St Michigan / Wisconsin
PAC-12
3 from Oregon/ Arizona/ Colorado/ Arizona State
SEC
3 from Auburn/ Kentucky/ LSU/ Florida
American
2 from Cincinnati/ Houston/ Wichita State
WCC
2 from Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s/ BYU
A-10
2 from Dayton/ Rhode Island/ Richmond
That right there is 30 of 36 at-large
drop it down to 25 or 26
2)Rhode Island and Richmond not locks and have bad losses
3)Cincinnati lost to colgate lost c floridia UConn Tulane bowling green
4(Rutgers—18-9 lost 4/6
5)Oklahoma
6)Purdue
following teams ahead of us
NC State17-10
Oklahoma-16-11
Xavier17-10
Georgetown losing to DePaul
Provide lost toCharleston LBch State Nwst Penn
Indiana17-9
Purdue—lost 5 in row
UCLAlost to cal state Fullerton,Hofstra
USC19-8
Stanford17-9
Arkansas17-10
Alabama15-13
Mississippi State17-10
South Carolina 16-11 lost 2 in a row
Memphis-lost 3-5
Consigliere
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Thanks. Now we can have a rational discussion.
elimunelson
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Let’s assume the end when there is a month to go. There’s always teams that get hot and sneak in. It can be us but things have to happen. Someone like Purdue has lost 5 in a row. They are playing out of
The dance. It’s fluid. If they keep wining the odds sneak up. Enjoy it versus crying from
The mountain top factually it’s over.
We have a coach who can win in March. It may not happen but I’ll keep watching.
The dance. It’s fluid. If they keep wining the odds sneak up. Enjoy it versus crying from
The mountain top factually it’s over.
We have a coach who can win in March. It may not happen but I’ll keep watching.
cliftonparksufan
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We might have the easiest schedule remaining of the eight loss teams. 4-0 would be nice but none are opportunities for signature wins. At this point since it's moot, give me the four plus a couple in the ACCT and let the chips fall. If we don't get in at least we can say the team ended on a positive direction.
SUalldway
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I'm focusing on Beat Pitt @ Pitt on Wed.
We could go 4-0 in the last 4 games.
That would put us 19-12.
We would have 1 win over an NCAAT team.
That isn’t an at-large resume.
If we had good wins of course we could be an at-large.
We need to win the ACCT. Why can’t people read tea leaves.
Good wins > bad losses.
We have 1 good win.
A bunch of solid okay wins and our good win is the equivalent of South Carolina’s 3rd best win.
They are 15-12 and not in the field. They have 4 tomato cans as well.
We needed resume wins.
That would put us 19-12.
We would have 1 win over an NCAAT team.
That isn’t an at-large resume.
If we had good wins of course we could be an at-large.
We need to win the ACCT. Why can’t people read tea leaves.
Good wins > bad losses.
We have 1 good win.
A bunch of solid okay wins and our good win is the equivalent of South Carolina’s 3rd best win.
They are 15-12 and not in the field. They have 4 tomato cans as well.
We needed resume wins.
great stuff Alsacs. I’ve got a similar listing I am working off of. Totally agree with you if we win the next 4 and two in the ACC our record would be decent (21-12) but somewhat hollow. However, a couple of our gaps such as lack of quadrant 1, 2 and 3 wins can be made to look better. Pitt and Miami are quadrant 2, UNC at home and BC on the road are quadrant 3. I think 4 more wins in these categories gets us to 12 wins on the year which is within range of some of these others. Then in the ACC 1st round Pitt or UNC would be quadrant 2 and then UVA could be a quad 1. Might need to beat the 1 seed to be secure but there is some hope.
some of those teams listed Above us are not really above. Purdue is 14-14, UCLA has a 90+ NET ranking,
Cuse
This is actually the best area of focus but fun to dream a bit
The shame is that the bubble is really weak this year. Bubble teams are losing constantly, including us. Yesterday Duquesne, NC State, Florida, Xavier, Tennessee, Purdue, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Richmond, and Georgetown lost. You look back on all our close losses, especially FSU and Duke, and say "what if".
Sgt Cuse
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I think saying "really smart take" is a little hyperbole. IMO, the OP statement "We have no chance to beat the top 3" - is inaccurate. No chance against FSU? Didn't anyone else watch that game, in Tallahassee? SU held a 4 point lead with under 4 to go. IMO, FSU is a clear tier down from the other 2.
To the OP, I think getting to the 4/5 line would be huge. Another big break would be getting into the side with FSU.
sutomcat
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Good job listing the schools we would be in competition with for an at large bid.
There is no question that the road to getting one is tough.
You say at 19-12, we would have 1 win over an NCAAT team. I assume based on earlier posts, you consider UVa to be that team.
Do you not think Colgate is getting a bid? They are 21-7, 12-3 in the Patriot League, up 2 games on everyone else and barring a major upset in the Patriot League tournament, they are in.
Also, North Florida has been doing really well in their conference. They are 12-3, neck and neck with Liberty for first place in the ASUN. and I think most experts expect the bid for that conference to go to one of those teams.
Lastly. I don’t think anyone is saying we would get a bid based on a 19-12 regular season. What some are saying, and I join them in this, is that if we go 4-0 to close out the regular season and also get 2 wins in the ACCT, to get to 21-12, we might have a chance.
In that event, Syracuse would have another win over an NCAAT team in Virginia.
Some of the teams on your list are going to finish up 2-5 or 3-4. A couple might finish 1-6. That will help a lot.
In the end, I think the ACC, perhaps unfairly, will end up getting 5 teams in. NC State has pulled well in front of us with their win at the Dome and their win over Duke, but they have some bad losses and maybe we can squeak by them if they lose to UNC and Duke down the stretch and do not have a good ACCT. That would give them a 19-12/8-10 regular season record, so if they do poorly in the ACCT, we would have a better overall record and a far better conference record. I think getting the 5 seed and establishing ourselves as the 5th best team in the ACC is our best hope towards getting a bid.
It is a long shot but I do think it is a possibility. It will get more interesting if NC State loses against to UNC (among their bad losses are getting swept by GT and possibly getting swept by UNC).
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