We're still a very good program | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

We're still a very good program

why isn't that stat meaningful? being decent every year while having special final 4 seasons isn't meaningful?

your eyes are spoiled and you're annoyed that we haven't ever been great the last 5 years (I agree that's true) but being consistently pretty good and getting to a final four is still rare

The whole basis of your stat is a miracle Final Four run. That limits the pool to what, a dozen teams. We have been on the bubble 5 years in a row. We are getting seeds twice as low as we used to.
 
If we have an all-time great coach (which I agree we do), shouldn't our expectations be higher than good? I'm not sure I could call this year good but fine I'll go along. Eventually, even the all-time greats lose a step or five.

I wasn’t commenting on expectations. I do agree that everyone has a shelf life professionally. JB’s has been impossibly long. Is it expiring? I don’t think it is, entirely, but I do think he needs to figure out a better approach offensively. And we need to have a plan B defensively other than just pressing when hope is almost lost.
 
Millhouse I know you’re a metrics person and all of this is great. But our players don’t look like other team’s players. Our offense doesn’t look like other tean’s offenses. Our defense is strong based on metrics but I didn’t think our defense was consistently good at all this year.

Also, Top 44 means a first or second round exit every year based on numbers, with a miracle Final Four run that consisted of wins over 7, 15, 11, 1 (which needed an all-time comeback/meltdown).

Sorry, I expect more. Every other 5-year period of Boeheim’s tenure has produced a top-tier seed in a bracket. We have a high water mark of an 8.

Also going to add that next year could be much worse.
throw out the final four as a fluke for the sake of argument. It's still a small group of teams.

you're talking about every 5 year period of boeheim's tenure? Boeheim is a hall of famer. I'm not arguing this has been as good as the rest of boeheim's career. When your coach wins a thousand games, he gets to coach as long as he wants, and thankfully, he's still pretty good

throw out the SRS stuff and the final 4. There are 14 teams that have made the sweet 16 twice and the elite 8 from 2015 to 2018. However you slice and dice it, (overall rating, tournament performance, both) they are in small groups

Gonzaga
Kansas
Wisconsin
UNC
Duke
Kentucky
Arizona
Notre Dame
Oregon
Villanova
Syracuse
Xavier
Michigan
Oklahoma
 
The whole basis of your stat is a miracle Final Four run. That limits the pool to what, a dozen teams. We have been on the bubble 5 years in a row. We are getting seeds twice as low as we used to.
Not true, go back through the post. Also, it's clear that many (edit - many is wrong - some) of those final 4 teams had more inconsistency overall or else the group in my first post would be bigger.

i don't know if you just responded to post 1 without reading the rest ( i do that too) but i addressed this in post 4
 
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I do appreciate op’s perspective, I haven’t taken an analytical look to our current state like that.

We’re very fortunate to have enjoyed the sustained success we have. But do people feel confident in the coming years?
 
I appreciate you trying to be optimistic, but those schools win conference championships and attract elite recruits and are consistently 1 and 2 seeds in the tournament. They aren't on pins and needles on Selection Sunday like we have mostly been over the 5 years (besides this year) hoping for a miracle from the committee.
I guess the point here is even with all that said, Syracuse still finds itself amongst those schools when it comes to SRS and tournament performance over the past 5 years. That's pretty good

Millhouse, I appreciate what you are saying and have set up in this thread and I'm on board with all of it
 
i'll ask again. why is it so hard for other schools to be as mediocre and irrelevant

JB has had an incredibly high floor mostly because he is just smarter than a lot of coaches.
 
North Carolina belongs in that group by the way across the board - basketball reference calls them north carolina in one place and UNC in another
 
The whole basis of your stat is a miracle Final Four run. That limits the pool to what, a dozen teams. We have been on the bubble 5 years in a row. We are getting seeds twice as low as we used to.
First half team that could not hang. 20-14 against a ok schedule. 1-6 against top twenty teams with losses being blow outs and the one big win when two key starters were missing for Duke. First rd exit against a 9th seed that will get drubbed next round. Hard to color season other than disappointing.
 
I wasn’t commenting on expectations. I do agree that everyone has a shelf life professionally. JB’s has been impossibly long. Is it expiring? I don’t think it is, entirely, but I do think he needs to figure out a better approach offensively. And we need to have a plan B defensively other than just pressing when hope is almost lost.

I don't have much faith that a 75 year old man is going to be making major changes to his coaching philosophy and failing that I think we're going to see best case scenario more of the same or much worse.
 
When your coach wins a thousand games, he gets to coach as long as he wants

No doubt but he doesn't have to do it here. He could do what Calhoun has done and move down a level where less time and effort is required. And if he's hanging on to get money owed to him (doubtful), cut him a fat check. He's deserved it for not taking anyone's phone calls all these years. That's the only reason his salary is where it is.
 
I know people are upset that we haven't been great the last 5 years but here is the list of teams that have an SRS rating (schedule adjusted point differential) of 44 or better the last 5 years that have also made a final 4 in that time

Duke
Gonzaga
Michigan State
Kentucky
Kansas
Villanova
Syracuse
UNC (EDIT i missed them)

That's good company. That's a bad stretch for Boeheim and it's still something that most schools can't accomplish. Stop being babies.

Boeheim knows the zone gives us a high floor and that does count for something and it doesn't stop us from sweet 16s and final 4s. People are making it out like this is some dragged out sucky period where we have to indulge the old man. Temple comparisons? Cheney couldn't win 20 in the A10 those late years
We're probably also the only one that made the final four as a low seed. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
 
No doubt but he doesn't have to do it here. He could do what Calhoun has done and move down a level where less time and effort is required. And if he's hanging on to get money owed to him (doubtful), cut him a fat check. He's deserved it.
Boeheim is healthier than Calhoun. I think you're being ridiculous
 
I guess the point here is even with all that said, Syracuse still finds itself amongst those schools when it comes to SRS and tournament performance over the past 5 years. That's pretty good

Millhouse, I appreciate what you are saying and have set up in this thread and I'm on board with all of it
eric thinks i'm trying to be optimistic. i'm not trying to be optimistic or pessimistic, I just wanted to see how many teams there were that don't have worse years. we all know they haven't been great but I think not being bad counts for something. everyone's too emotional
 
Being in the ACC does a lot of work in keeping SU's ranking high. Simple Rating System (SRS) is simple for a reason and is dependent on strength of schedule and gives all games an equal weighting.

Also, based on the description of the tool by Sports Reference, you're using it wrong.
It is a predictive system rather than a retrodictive system - this is a very important distinction. You can use these ratings to answer the question: which team is stronger? I.e. which team is more likely to win a game tomorrow? Or you can use them to answer the question: which of these teams accomplished more in the past? Some systems answer the first questions more accurately; they are called predictive systems. Others answer the latter question more accurately; they are called retrodictive systems. As it turns out, this is a pretty good predictive system. For the reasons described below, it is not a good retrodictive system.
Also, a lot of teams go through ups and downs. A lot is dependent on coaching changes which can happen even after a decent season. That limits a lot of schools who might have been decent for 8 years, coach retired or was fired, had a couple of down years, and then had a nice run of 4-5 seasons. Boeheim has managed to keep SU with a winning record for a lot of years. A lot of teams don't get the kind of consistent support that JAB has had. Coaching changes hurt for long term consistency; there's often a transition year.
 
the idea that you fire someone who is still doing a pretty good job and is going to retire soon because he isn't as great as he used to be is also unhealthy

Do you think FSU was unfair to Bobby Bowden?
 
Being in the ACC does a lot of work in keeping SU's ranking high. Simple Rating System (SRS) is simple for a reason and is dependent on strength of schedule and gives all games an equal weighting.

Also, based on the description of the tool by Sports Reference, you're using it wrong.

Also, a lot of teams go through ups and downs. A lot is dependent on coaching changes which can happen even after a decent season. That limits a lot of schools who might have been decent for 8 years, coach retired or was fired, had a couple of down years, and then had a nice run of 4-5 seasons. Boeheim has managed to keep SU with a winning record for a lot of years. A lot of teams don't get the kind of consistent support that JAB has had. Coaching changes hurt for long term consistency; there's often a transition year.

Good point. And I'll take that transition year if it means a new direction. We're not changing under Boeheim and anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves.
 
and yet here we are in a group with the very best programs in the country

it should be hard to ignore facts but you guys are doing it!
Bottom line is that we don't contend, we play a very boring style and have for a long time. We also have a bad rap in NBA circles. If you want to champion mediocrity , be my guest...I'm not buying it and that is why I finally gave up my season tickets in 2017 after 18 seasons. This ish has to change, and I do not see light at the end of the tunnel
 
Do you think FSU was unfair to Bobby Bowden?
that's a tough question. he was older and they'd fallen further from their peak. but i did think it was a little ugly. i hope it doesn't get to that point in 5 years with us
 
Being in the ACC does a lot of work in keeping SU's ranking high. Simple Rating System (SRS) is simple for a reason and is dependent on strength of schedule and gives all games an equal weighting.

Also, based on the description of the tool by Sports Reference, you're using it wrong.

Also, a lot of teams go through ups and downs. A lot is dependent on coaching changes which can happen even after a decent season. That limits a lot of schools who might have been decent for 8 years, coach retired or was fired, had a couple of down years, and then had a nice run of 4-5 seasons. Boeheim has managed to keep SU with a winning record for a lot of years. A lot of teams don't get the kind of consistent support that JAB has had. Coaching changes hurt for long term consistency; there's often a transition year.
how am i using it wrong?

the ACC is a tougher conference so the SOS is higher, that's right. I think people upset with our record expect the same number of wins against a tougher schedule. That's the whole point of using that measure rather than dopey eye tests.

your last paragraph, I agree. but doesn't that count for something?
 
i'll ask again. why is it so hard for other schools to be as mediocre and irrelevant
Why is it so hard for other schools? Well, they don't have the Carrier Dome, a major P5 conference on the East Coast, premier practice facilities, and one of the best fanbases in the country.

But what other schools can't do is missing the point. It's about what should be considered reasonable expectations for a program of our stature, year-in year-out. The other poster provided a 5-year baseline and we're not even close to hitting those marks. Comparing us to the rest of division 1 is like saying, 'well we could be worse'. That kind of thinking just breeds apathy and acceptance.
 
that's a tough question. he was older and they'd fallen further from their peak. but i did think it was a little ugly. i hope it doesn't get to that point in 5 years with us
Just how bad does it have to get milly? NITs? Losing seasons? By that point, we'd lose thousands of die-hard STHs and you may never get them back. If anything I'd say it would be harder to win them back when its -20 and 10 inches of snow outside.
 
Good point. And I'll take that transition year if it means a new direction. We're not changing under Boeheim and anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves.
Also, in looking at the original list: Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse, UNC

Those are all teams who, among the top ten P5 schools, have the longest tenured coachs. FSU and Baylor aren't there but have had a string of winning seasons. Scott Drew had to take over a team that was literally covering up a murder.
 

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