What is the deal with Pomeroy ?

[orange2win]

The Arizona thing is a perfect example of what I was talking about before; Arizona is #1 in Pomeroy, they lose, and there is a comment like


Arizona was #2 in the AP Poll too. But no one knocks the AP poll for having Arizona #2.

Ken's numbers are daily. The polls are weekly. I doubt Arizona will #2 come Monday.

 

[CiceroCuse]

It seems to me that Pomeroy is basically held to an impossible standard. No one has ever claimed it's perfect because of course its not. You'll often see posts if a team Pomeroy likes higher than the general consensus loses, crowing about how Pomeroy is off on that team or whatever. No one says the AP poll is flawed if the 10th team beats the 5th team, it's just accepted as something that happens.

And I've said this a million times; Pomeroy's projected game lines are almost always right in line with Vegas; if Pomeroy is so off then just bet the games, you'd make a killing.

I agree. I have following kenpom.com for 4 years and it is uncanny how accurate he can be. Maybe there is one better but i think his is pretty good.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Lol you like to move fulcrum when trying to argue your point. Im not bashing the guy. Hell props to him as a fellow math nerd. But it is ridiculous to think you can use models to predict a champion. Any student of college basketball could give you the top 15 teams most likely to win the title. It would be congruent with much of what kenpom would say. Ken pom is beneficial in seeing where the dropoffs are in terms of who is for real and who is not. It is not any better than a human in saying who will win the whole thing. Comparing championship contenders requires qualitative analysis. Kenpom may back into a similar conclusion but its not ahead of the game. We over value these things.

No, you just misunderstand my arguments. I am generally more interested in his model beyond the top 20 for gambling purposes, so I consider it in its entirety. The purpose of his model is not to predict the champion, it is to predict Winning %. BPI on the other hand is designed to predict entrance to the tournament and tournament success.

 

[longtimefan]

The bolded part is a ridiculous thing to say, ESPECIALLY for a purported objective measurement guy — and is an example of why I have always found kenpom and other college hoops numbers geeks to be insufferable.

He's merely stating what his metrics tell him.

How good are those metrics? Well, a bunch of top-level coaches subscribe to his advanced stuff. Including Mike Hopkins, I believe.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Anyone else hear Seinfeld's voice when reading the title of this thread?

And yes I'm being 'silly' because this arguing about some guy who uses stats to evaluate a team is boring to me. BORING I SAY!

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's so funny to me why people care about this potatoe-y stuff.

Pomme de terre

 

[Czar]

ITT: People who didn't get above Algebra 2 in High School.

 

[moqui]

LMFAO @ "eye test" when there are a hundredandingsomething games being played today alone.

I think Pomeroy is the best in his particular niche if for no other reason than that he is transparent - his algorithm is published and his data are publicly available.

But I am not going to get into another debate about him unless and until it is with someone who can detail his formula and enumerate what they believe are the particular flaws in it.

 

[pearl31]

So, just a quick glance at the guru's current rankings…
are you OK, for example, with Louisville being the #5 ranked team while Cincinnati is the #26 ranked team?

 

[pearl31]

LMFAO @ "eye test" when there are a hundredandingsomething games being played today alone.

Riiiight and it's really necessary to watch all of those teams/games, isn't it?

 

[AZOrange]

(I'm not sure what the point about convincing anyone how good we are is directed at - I agree that that's silly.)

Here's the operative WSU paragraph from Pomeroy:

I don’t bring this up to make the case that Wichita State’s schedule has been tougher than Syracuse’s. It hasn’t. But I think if you asked most basketball people, certainly talking heads on TV or people with a poll votes, you’d get something close to unanimity that winning at home against Duke is better than winning at Saint Louis, and again, that’s wrong, and wrong by a lot.


First, he says - explicitly - that WSU's schedule hasn't been tougher than SU's. I assume everyone agrees with that. Then he says that beating Duke at home is easier than beating SLU away. I take it many disagree with that. I'm not so sure myself. But the basis of his opinion is no secret. And it has nothing to do with animosity towards Syracuse or, per the OP, "arrogance." (Do you even disagree? My sense has been that folks who follow college basketball the closest are the ones with the strongest appreciation for the importance of home court advantage.)

Home court is an advantage no doubt but I don't think it trumps opponents level either. And he doesn't just say the opinion that a home win over Duke is better than St. Louis is wrong...he says it's wrong by a lot. Again, I think that sounds like an opinion of a pure number cruncher and less of a game watcher.

 

[Czar]

So, just a quick glance at the guru's current rankings…
are you OK, for example, with Louisville being the #5 ranked team while Cincinnati is the #26 ranked team?

Cincy's offense is ing awful.

 

[pearl31]

Cincy's offense is awful.

23-3 including a win @ l'vlle.

 

[Czar]

23-3 including a win @ l'vlle.

They play just as slow as us, but are horribly inefficient. Their schedule is weak and awful. I don't know what more you want.

 

[AZOrange]

What is goofy about his point?

And no one is saying we need to convince anyone of anything about how good we are. The record speaks for itself and whether or not we are first or second or third is irrelevant in March.

What are you talking about? There have been ad nauseous posts on here about ken pomeroy and his system...again it's helpful for bubble like teams but it's completely irrelevant and pointless to worry about kenpom when were undefeated and no.1 on February 15th. No matter who sneaks ahead etc right now...were the top seed in March...that's all that matters.

 

[AZOrange]

LMFAO @ "eye test" when there are a hundredandingsomething games being played today alone.

I think Pomeroy is the best in his particular niche if for no other reason than that he is transparent - his algorithm is published and his data are publicly available.

But I am not going to get into another debate about him unless and until it is with someone who can detail his formula and enumerate what they believe are the particular flaws in it.

I find the efficiency numbers telling. To me, it supports what you're seeing on the court even though the announcers can't seem to grasp it.

 

[pearl31]

They play just as slow as us, but are horribly inefficient. Their schedule is weak and awful. I don't know what more you want.

wait, what? wins over l'vlle, pitt, smu and uconn is awful? compared to a team (l'vle) whose resume isn't even close but is ranked 15 places higher?
I'd be fine if his rankings were of the most efficient offensive teams. but they're not. they're supposed to, apparently, rank the best teams in order. and they fail to do that accurately.

 

[Waltdods]

What are you talking about? There have been ad nauseous posts on here about ken pomeroy and his system...again it's helpful for bubble like teams but it's completely irrelevant and pointless to worry about kenpom when were undefeated and no.1 on February 15th. No matter who sneaks ahead etc right now...were the top seed in March...that's all that matters.

Hasn't literally every thread about Pomeroy on this board for the last few weeks started exactly like this one, with someone saying "Ken Pomeroy is a dork and hates Syracuse"? I haven't seen any post where anyone says "We're only the second best team in the country according to Pomeroy and will never win a championship." Has that happened?

 

[AZOrange]

Hasn't literally every thread about Pomeroy on this board for the last few weeks started exactly like this one, with someone saying "Ken Pomeroy is a dork and hates Syracuse"? I haven't seen any post where anyone says "We're only the second best team in the country according to Pomeroy and will never win a championship." Has that happened?

That's kind of my point...the posts ad nauseum about irrelevant kenpom rankings...pomeroy doesn't hate syracuse, I don't think he could even pick us out on a court if he showed up to the duke game...

 

[Marsh01]

Pomeroy is such a waste. Means absolutely nothing

 

[Orangezoo]

No, you just misunderstand my arguments. I am generally more interested in his model beyond the top 20 for gambling purposes, so I consider it in its entirety. The purpose of his model is not to predict the champion, it is to predict Winning %. BPI on the other hand is designed to predict entrance to the tournament and tournament success.

You are all over the place. First you respond without reading my responses then you refer to points you never made. Thats great you use pomeroy for that but once again you move the goal posts and say I dont get something you neither stated or inferred. Were done here.

 

[Knicks411]

What are you talking about? There have been ad nauseous posts on here about ken pomeroy and his system...again it's helpful for bubble like teams but it's completely irrelevant and pointless to worry about kenpom when were undefeated and no.1 on February 15th. No matter who sneaks ahead etc right now...were the top seed in March...that's all that matters.

Yeah I think we're talking past each other cause I don't really disagree with this

 

[memcorsu]

I find it amusing thar you say his individual team ratings are subjectively skewed (which they are not) and then go on to make many subjective assessments

I never claimed to not be subjective. I posted that "I struggle inside myself" to not draw an opinion of a person I do not know personally and understand that media can skew things. I have read a lot of his comments from different reports and he always comes off arrogant. I give the man props. I don't enjoy running numbers as he does and he is defending what he does for a living. Numbers are often skewed to support an argument unfortunately. Not that he has an agenda for one team or another . I believe his agenda is defending his formulas. I think that we are an outlier and thus don't fit his numbers as well as he would like.

It seems to me that Pomeroy is basically held to an impossible standard. No one has ever claimed it's perfect because of course its not. You'll often see posts if a team Pomeroy likes higher than the general consensus loses, crowing about how Pomeroy is off on that team or whatever. No one says the AP poll is flawed if the 10th team beats the 5th team, it's just accepted as something that happens.

And I've said this a million times; Pomeroy's projected game lines are almost always right in line with Vegas; if Pomeroy is so off then just bet the games, you'd make a killing.

I don't enjoy gambling or have any desire. I am stating that Ken himself comes of that his stats are "end all be all". Just my humble opinion. I do watch a lot of basketball outside of SU and think that there are so many more issues in W-L that can be captured in his numbers. IE injuries, flu, travel, officiating, off nights, on nights, dumb luck, coaching errors, time clock errors, silly clock stoppage for what ever reason effecting momentum, different defenses offenses meshing not meshing against each other, etc...

Hasn't literally every thread about Pomeroy on this board for the last few weeks started exactly like this one, with someone saying "Ken Pomeroy is a dork and hates Syracuse"? I haven't seen any post where anyone says "We're only the second best team in the country according to Pomeroy and will never win a championship." Has that happened?

Don't know if Ken is a dork or not. In my original post I stated that he might be the nicest fella in the world. I have read many things that he writes and much of it is probably defending his brand but comes of arrogant. That my be my personal issues. I usually do not post about things such as this. I think there is a greater understanding of a game when you participated in the game itself. IE you see things as a coach that you do not see as a player.

I guess the issue I have the most is not just that of reading Kens writings but much of the media trying to disprove how special this program is over the last few years. This year is so very unique and instead of wanting to accept that this is a neat scenario they want to lessen it. There is so much more to sports than what you get in the numbers. That is what makes it fun for me. So often their is a David and Goliath moment. Time when a fallen hero redeems themselves through special moments or "no name hero's" come out of the mist to to great things.

Please forgive my original outburst in my initial post. I guess these are thing I should continue to keep to myself. They guy found a great niche and is making, what I assume, as a good living at it. I wish him the best of luck as well as all of you my faithful Orangmen brothers and sisters. I look forward to the ball falling as it may and hopefully giving us the joy of another championship and hopefully we can concretely prove we are #1 in April.


I'll go back to the kids table now and finish my pizza.

 

[SWC75]

24-0 is a stat.

So is 25-0.

 

[jncuse]

MEMCORSU said

I believe his agenda is defending his formulas. I think that we are an outlier and thus don't fit his numbers as well as he would like.

You do realize his formula has us ranked as #2. It certainly suggests we are one hell of a team, and he has never suggested we are not one of the ebst in the country. Not sure what agenda you are talking about, or outlier.

The guy never pissed on Syracuse or did not claim they were not a top team. He just said their schedule will get much tougher due to the fact that we had played a low level quality of road games prior to the Pitt game. That's not an agenda, that's not pissing on the team, and that's not inaccurate It's a case of over sensitive fans.