2022 Bracketology

[fieldystick]

Bracketology: No Obvious Way to Rank Field Past Maryland, Georgetown

The on-field differences between No. 3 and, say, No. 13 aren’t especially wide.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure

(8) Virginia vs. Penn

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(5) Rutgers vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

(4) Princeton vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(3) Yale vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s

(6) IVY/Brown vs. Ohio State

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(7) Cornell vs. Duke

(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three included: Penn, Duke, Ohio State

First three on the outside: Notre Dame, Harvard, Denver

Moving in: Delaware

Moving out: Towson

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

Three flights.

Jacksonville is an unavoidable flight.
UVM/Utah is an unavoidable flight.

OSU is an avoidable flight.

This is my main point of contention with his bracket right now.

 

[Zack80]

What is the distance for flights?

Duke to Ithaca doesn't seem real short either.

 

[fieldystick]

What is the distance for flights?

Duke to Ithaca doesn't seem real short either.

400 miles. I’m not sure if it’s driving distance or straight line. I usually use driving distance because it’s faster to calculate that unless it’s right on the cutoff, then sometimes I measure the straight line to try to get under.

I didn’t even see the Duke/Cornell matchup. I’m not at my computer to measure the straight line right now, but my suspicion is that it’s over 400 either way.

The last few weeks have been a nightmare to get to two flights because the combination of Utah, Jacksonville and so many Ivy League matchups to avoid. I cannot see the NCAA doing 4 flights.

 

[Zack80]

We still got some big games coming up, so no time to sweat about it too much.

 

[upperdeck]

the ivy think alone can go so many ways. if cornell brown penn win they probably jump to the 3-4 line I would think. Still hard to figure Princeton not even getting into the ivy top 4 but being a 3 seed here?

Does Penn winning it move them back up to a top 3-4 seed.. right now they are 3-4-6-7 in some of these.. they could go 3-4-5-6 if the right things happen.

 

[fieldystick]

the ivy think alone can go so many ways. if cornell brown penn win they probably jump to the 3-4 line I would think. Still hard to figure Princeton not even getting into the ivy top 4 but being a 3 seed here?

Does Penn winning it move them back up to a top 3-4 seed.. right now they are 3-4-6-7 in some of these.. they could go 3-4-5-6 if the right things happen.

Going to give the simple version. I think we are heading toward:

1. Maryland
2. Georgetown (if BE champion)
3. Ivy Champion
4. Princeton

5/6: Rutgers and another Ivy
7. Virginia (could sneak 6th imo)
8. Another Ivy (preferably not Cornell)

The whole thing about Cornell is about travel restrictions involving OSU. OSU only has two non-flight destinations that seem like likely seeds: UVA and Cornell. That they are both floating around in the 7/8 range is a headache because the 8 draws… Maryland @ OSU in quarterfinals. It’s still possible to make the bracket work with Cornell at #8 but it’s a bigger headache.

I think the 8/9 line will ultimately be ACC vs Ivy in some form or another. There really aren’t a lot of other options that make sense there.

 

[Hoo's That]

Bracketology: No Obvious Way to Rank Field Past Maryland, Georgetown

The on-field differences between No. 3 and, say, No. 13 aren’t especially wide.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure

(8) Virginia vs. Penn

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(5) Rutgers vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

(4) Princeton vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(3) Yale vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s

(6) IVY/Brown vs. Ohio State

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(7) Cornell vs. Duke

(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three included: Penn, Duke, Ohio State

First three on the outside: Notre Dame, Harvard, Denver

Moving in: Delaware

Moving out: Towson

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

If these pairings hold up (and I think they won't), I think the 3-6 Yale game goes to Hofstra and the 4-5 Rutty game goes to Columbus.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Inside Lacrosse Bracketology 2022 Fourth Look: Level-Setting

The Thursday of conference championship is sneakily the best day of the year to be a college lacrosse fan.Things will change so fast

www.insidelacrosse.com

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Inside Lacrosse Bracketology 2022 Fourth Look: Level-Setting

The Thursday of conference championship is sneakily the best day of the year to be a college lacrosse fan.Things will change so fast

www.insidelacrosse.com

This is interesting just from an Ivy standpoint. So you have Brown winning the league but still seeded lower than Yale who they theoretically would have beaten twice this season? Also not sure I see Penn getting a home game if they lose tomorrow night. A little surprised to see Princeton maintain a 2 seed so not even making the league tournament certainly didn't hurt them. Still think they avoid a possible MD/UVA rematch in the quarters but guess we'll see.

 

[fieldystick]

This is interesting just from an Ivy standpoint. So you have Brown winning the league but still seeded lower than Yale who they theoretically would have beaten twice this season? Also not sure I see Penn getting a home game if they lose tomorrow night. A little surprised to see Princeton maintain a 2 seed so not even making the league tournament certainly didn't hurt them. Still think they avoid a possible MD/UVA rematch in the quarters but guess we'll see.

I doubt Terry is including the games that Ivy champion would win to become the champion.

I think the eventual IL champion will be 3/4 seed at the minimum. No matter which of the four it is.

 

[Powellfan]

 

[fieldystick]

I know there's less interest here this year since it's not Syracuse who is being debated up and down the internet (*friendly wave* at our UVA friends!!),

but I'm happy to answer any questions that anyone may have about why I have evaluated teams certain ways.

I took today off work just because of how busy this weekend is going to be for me with various lacrosse goings-on...

 

[Zack80]

I am not really sure who will win the final spot. If Notre Dame wins, they would seem to be putting their name into the hat as their RPI would climb up above OSU and Harvard.
Harvard had that top 5 RPI win over Princeton. OSU has beaten ND and Harvard head-to-head. Notre Dame gets a lot of favoritism.

 

[DoctahLexus]

I know there's less interest here this year since it's not Syracuse who is being debated up and down the internet (*friendly wave* at our UVA friends!!),

but I'm happy to answer any questions that anyone may have about why I have evaluated teams certain ways.

I took today off work just because of how busy this weekend is going to be for me with various lacrosse goings-on...

Do you anticipate a return to the methods used back in the 2019 tourney for the selection process this year or will they maintain some of the 2021 antics? I remember you saying that if they went by the traditional formulas that Cuse could have actually been at a higher tourney position in 2021.

Answer at your own leisure! Always interested in your thoughts this time of year.

 

[fieldystick]

Do you anticipate a return to the methods used back in the 2019 tourney for the selection process this year or will they maintain some of the 2021 antics? I remember you saying that if they went by the traditional formulas that Cuse could have actually been at a higher tourney position in 2021.

Answer at your own leisure! Always interested in your thoughts this time of year.

The only things that the committee has done that I don't think the metrics support with their two mock top 10s are:

1) Rutgers at #5. I guess it's the upper limit of reasonable, but it feels like a stretch to me. At the time of the last top 10 they released, Rutgers had no top 10 wins, 3 top 20 wins, and their losses were to RPI 1/2. In general, the Ivy League teams have accomplished more to support a higher seed than Rutgers right now, and you are seeing this being reflected in IL's bracket - whereas I am and Stevens seems to be deferring to how the committee has shown its hand so far.

2) Jacksonville. Oh my goodness, don't get me started. There was nothing to support ever having Jacksonville in their first draft top 10 in early April. It has created a mess for them that they never would have had had it not been for that ranking. JU has zero case for an at-large by metrics if they lose to Richmond tomorrow, but the punditry will go wild over them being left out. They have 1 top 10 win, 3 top 20 wins, and very well could have 2 losses that end up being deemed "bad" (JHU and Utah). Their SOS is abysmal, and their RPI is in the 20s. It is not an exceptional résumé, even if you ignore the 24 beside their name in the RPI and only look at the key wins and losses.

-

Beyond these two things, their top 10 has more or less tracked with how I had the top 10 on the Monday before their reveals - maybe differing by one position here or there. To me, this suggests that we have returned to the largely metric-driven system that we used in 2019 and before.

And yes, I feel strongly that Syracuse's results/metrics deserved a seed last year. After the actual top 6 seeds, which I had the same (different order), you were left with: Syracuse, Denver, Lehigh, Rutgers as reasonable options for the last two seeds. There's pretty much no question in my mind which of these four teams was the one with the most verifiably good wins/metrics. But... I'm trying to let 2021 go. There's no point in getting irritated over it at this point.

 

[wgdsr]

The only things that the committee has done that I don't think the metrics support with their two mock top 10s are:

1) Rutgers at #5. I guess it's the upper limit of reasonable, but it feels like a stretch to me. At the time of the last top 10 they released, Rutgers had no top 10 wins, 3 top 20 wins, and their losses were to RPI 1/2. In general, the Ivy League teams have accomplished more to support a higher seed than Rutgers right now, and you are seeing this being reflected in IL's bracket - whereas Stevens and I seem to be deferring to how the committee has shown its hand so far.

2) Jacksonville. Oh my goodness, don't get me started. There was nothing to support ever having Jacksonville in their first draft top 10 in early April. It has created a mess for them that they never would have had had it not been for that ranking. JU has zero case for an at-large by metrics if they lose to Richmond tomorrow, but the punditry will go wild over them being left out. They have 1 top 10 win, 3 top 20 wins, and very well could have 2 losses that end up being deemed "bad" (JHU and Utah). Their SOS is abysmal, and their RPI is in the 20s. It is not an exceptional résumé, even if you ignore the 24 beside their name in the RPI and only look at the key wins and losses.

-

Beyond these two things, their top 10 has more or less tracked with how I had the top 10 on the Monday before their reveals - maybe differing by one position here or there. To me, this suggests that we have returned to the largely metric-driven system that we used in 2019 and before.

And yes, I feel strongly that Syracuse's results/metrics deserved a seed last year. After the actual top 6 seeds, which I had the same (different order), you were left with: Syracuse, Denver, Lehigh, Rutgers as reasonable options for the last two seeds. There's pretty much no question in my mind which of these four teams was the one with the most verifiably good wins/metrics. But... I'm trying to let 2021 go. There's no point in getting irritated over it at this point.

fieldy, where were you when i was getting roasted for suggesting the 'cuse needed to play lehigh last year not holy cross?!!? hahaha

 

[DoctahLexus]

The only things that the committee has done that I don't think the metrics support with their two mock top 10s are:

1) Rutgers at #5. I guess it's the upper limit of reasonable, but it feels like a stretch to me. At the time of the last top 10 they released, Rutgers had no top 10 wins, 3 top 20 wins, and their losses were to RPI 1/2. In general, the Ivy League teams have accomplished more to support a higher seed than Rutgers right now, and you are seeing this being reflected in IL's bracket - whereas Stevens and I seem to be deferring to how the committee has shown its hand so far.

2) Jacksonville. Oh my goodness, don't get me started. There was nothing to support ever having Jacksonville in their first draft top 10 in early April. It has created a mess for them that they never would have had had it not been for that ranking. JU has zero case for an at-large by metrics if they lose to Richmond tomorrow, but the punditry will go wild over them being left out. They have 1 top 10 win, 3 top 20 wins, and very well could have 2 losses that end up being deemed "bad" (JHU and Utah). Their SOS is abysmal, and their RPI is in the 20s. It is not an exceptional résumé, even if you ignore the 24 beside their name in the RPI and only look at the key wins and losses.

-

Beyond these two things, their top 10 has more or less tracked with how I had the top 10 on the Monday before their reveals - maybe differing by one position here or there. To me, this suggests that we have returned to the largely metric-driven system that we used in 2019 and before.

And yes, I feel strongly that Syracuse's results/metrics deserved a seed last year. After the actual top 6 seeds, which I had the same (different order), you were left with: Syracuse, Denver, Lehigh, Rutgers as reasonable options for the last two seeds. There's pretty much no question in my mind which of these four teams was the one with the most verifiably good wins/metrics. But... I'm trying to let 2021 go. There's no point in getting irritated over it at this point.

I feel a little for Galloway/Jacksonville as in a more standard year that Denver win would be a quality one and the Hop loss would not be quite so costly. In the end probably all they had to do was beat Utah for that 10 ranking to be more reasonable? Or would it take more than that?

 

[fieldystick]

I feel a little for Galloway/Jacksonville as in a more standard year that Denver win would be a quality one and the Hop loss would not be quite so costly. In the end probably all they had to do was beat Utah for that 10 ranking to be more reasonable? Or would it take more than that?

I think they would need to win the SoCon too. So 15-1 SoCon champion Jacksonville with the only loss being to Hopkins... yeah, you probably could convince me that they'd stack up at 10th +/- in terms of evaluating for seeds. Maybe they even sneak the 8th seed or something if the committee was in a really good mood, who knows.

But to me, anyway, it seems like the people who are all up in arms about Jacksonville getting left out, aren't projecting ahead that they'd have another loss yet to come to Richmond - or before last night and even worse, potentially High Point/VMI - for this to be possible. In its current form, it's already an extremely flimsy case, adding another loss on top of it breaks it entirely.

The hard truth is that there's just too many bad teams/games (that never had any hope of being good or really helpful evaluation-wise) on their schedule:
Mercer
Marquette
Air Force
Bellarmine
UMass-Lowell
St. John's
Virginia Military
Hampton
Mercer, again

Some of those aren't their fault (conference), some of them are (UMass-Lowell? St. John's?).

Richmond scheduled like a team that could play their way into the at-large conversation with some upsets. Jacksonville scheduled like a team who didn't expect to be in this position in May (and that's because I don't think they expected it either).

 

[Zack80]

Notre Dame still has that poor #23 NCAA selection SOS according to lax reference.

RPI – D1 Men – Lacrosse Reference

Harvard is at #18 and OSU at #7. Virginia is sort of middling at #17. Brown is at #15.

I wonder how much they use the SOS.

 

[fieldystick]

Men's Lacrosse Bracketology: One Day Away from Selection Sunday

What will happen Sunday? Here's Patrick Stevens' latest guess.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure

(8) Duke vs. Penn

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(5) IVY/Brown vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

(4) Yale vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(3) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s

(6) Rutgers vs. Virginia

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(7) Cornell vs. Ohio State

(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three included: Penn, Virginia, Ohio State

First three on the outside: Notre Dame, Harvard, North Carolina

---

Hold on. I want to post something about one thing in particular here. The rest, I don't have a problem with.

 

[fieldystick]

(8) Duke vs. Penn

---

Hold on. I want to post something about one thing in particular here. The rest, I don't have a problem with.

Penn has:
Better own RPI
Stronger SOS
At worst, roughly equivalent quality of wins as what Duke has
Far less damaging losses than Duke has
The head-to-head over Duke

What is the case for this game being played at Duke? Someone please make it, because I have no idea.

 

[Zack80]

View attachment 217043View attachment 217044

Penn has:
Better own RPI
Stronger SOS
At worst, roughly equivalent quality of wins as what Duke has
Far less damaging losses than Duke has
The head-to-head over Duke

What is the case for this game being played at Duke? Someone please make it, because I have no idea.

They're Duke!

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

View attachment 217043View attachment 217044

Penn has:
Better own RPI
Stronger SOS
At worst, roughly equivalent quality of wins as what Duke has
Far less damaging losses than Duke has
The head-to-head over Duke

What is the case for this game being played at Duke? Someone please make it, because I have no idea.

I guess I could see this scenario if Penn loses tonight and Duke wins tomorrow?

 

[fieldystick]

They're Duke!

But I say based on what: performance and statistics and record and strength of schedule? BUT WHAT ABOUT HEART AND UNIFORM COLOR!!

 

[fieldystick]

I guess I could see this scenario if Penn loses tonight and Duke wins tomorrow?

Yeah, I’d talk about it then. But I don’t see how he ended up where he did before these things have actually happened.