2022 Bracketology

Given you conjecture that it is by RPI UVa would be in.
In my mind, using the old criteria, if ND loses, UVa shouldn't be in. UVa's best win would be over a #14-15 ND.

wgdsr · May 6, 2022

Zack80 said:
Given you conjecture that it is by RPI UVa would be in.
In my mind, using the old criteria, if ND loses, UVa shouldn't be in. UVa's best win would be over a #14-15 ND.

so would tosu's. harvard would be 12 and nd likely 13. not a deal breaker?
so you have uva out, tosu out and notre dame out. hoo is in?

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

wgdsr said:
so would tosu's. harvard would be 12 and nd likely 13. not a deal breaker?
so you have uva out, tosu out and notre dame out. hoo is in?

If ND loses their RPI would probably drop to 14-15. OSU beat ND also.

Powellfan · May 7, 2022

fieldystick · May 7, 2022

Powellfan said:

I still don't like Duke's case even after looking at it more. In ~36 hours, maybe we'll know whether my theory or wgdsr's theory is right once and for all.

OrangeXtreme · May 7, 2022

Men's Lacrosse Bracketology: One Day Away from Selection Sunday

What will happen Sunday? Here's Patrick Stevens' latest guess.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Brown vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(5) Penn vs. Virginia
(4) IVY/Yale vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(3) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Rutgers vs. Cornell

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(7) Duke vs. Ohio State
(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three included: Cornell, Virginia, Ohio State
First three on the outside: Notre Dame, Harvard, North Carolina

Moving in: ---
Moving out: ---

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

fieldystick · May 7, 2022

OrangeXtreme said:
(7) Duke

Last three included: Virginia,

I will admit that I continue to be mystified by this development. The committee has in no way shown that this is their line of thinking. Both Rutgers and Virginia have been consistently been seeded/ranked higher than their metrics indicate they should be, per committee's drafts.

Why suddenly veer toward Duke? And why Duke?

fieldystick · May 7, 2022

wgdsr said:
i think it was the 1st year. that's what fit. don't remember what team(s). and then the next 2 years confirmed, fo sho in 2019.
then the committee chair in 2019 was interviewed and confirmed it all himself.

2019. Committee chair for about 5 minutes from 18:30.

Can you give me the quote that indicates to you it is straight RPI? Because I do not hear it at all in his answer.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

fieldystick said:
2019. Committee chair for about 5 minutes from 18:30.

Can you give me the quote that indicates to you it is straight RPI? Because I do not hear it at all in his answer.

thanks, interesting interview. it was from a print interview probably in the balto sun. i tried googling 5 or 6 diff things and came up empty.

the gist of it was as u may have seen posted elsewhere... "we put the top 8 at large rpis on the board and then evaluated whether anything jumped out that was off." presumably vs other candidates. and once you do that (with a metric that isn't even a criterion), while u haven't sealed anything, now the hill to climb is much steeper. and maybe you've chosen it already. particularly because teams are on the bubble for a reason, and there's unlikely to be some huge difference bt one in and one out. add in the fact that jhu lined up as 3 in as a 9 and it's over for a cornell.

his interview here -- evaluating 4 criteria ---contains one completely made up criterion (rpi), and 2 interpretations (top 10 and top 20 wins) which seem like their own versions. maybe they have that flexibility and maybe it's just whatever the committee wants to do. losses don't come in to his consideration per his words until they feel like it (high point).

try figuring that out!!!

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

The RPI ranks have had some shifting. Brown's loss has dropped them to #10, although just barely behind #9 UVa. BU, who beat Lehigh, has jumped back up to #11. ND is down to #15 and UNC down to #18. Army up to #17
... and wgdsr, Hopkins is back at #20

Still some more games to go, and more shifting.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

Zack80 said:
The RPI ranks have had some shifting. Brown's loss has dropped them to #10, although just barely behind #9 UVa. BU, who beat Lehigh, has jumped back up to #11. ND is down to #15 and UNC down to #18. Army up to #17
... and wgdsr, Hopkins is back at #20

Still some more games to go, and more shifting.

thanks. nd wins they will be 11 unless bu wins, where they could then be 12 but still the 8th at large via rpi as everyone on the bubble is pushed down one.

i figured hop had a good chance to move up if loyola lost and maybe even if army had. and st joe's and army may have their hands full today, one loses and hop may be solidly in top 20.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

fieldystick said:
I still don't like Duke's case even after looking at it more. In ~36 hours, maybe we'll know whether my theory or wgdsr's theory is right once and for all.

duke from bubble in/out to a 6 or 7 seed? or a 5 to keep rutgers away from umd?!?!

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

Zack80 said:
It does look like the top RPI teams made the NCAA tmt as at-large bids in 2017-2019. UNC making it with the #17 RPI in 2016 seems to be an exception.

2019 NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2018 NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2017 NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2016 NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

UNC was chosen over #15 Villanova

2015 NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

in 2015 #15 OSU was chosen over #12 Georgetown.

Here's something to play with:

RPI Archive

s3.amazonaws.com

for the search type in lacrosse followed by year like
lacrosse 2016
Then look for Selection \ team by team league (all games)

thanks. it'd seem to me, beyond rpi something would really have to stand out. if the duke game holds, it'd be my guess that it'll be:
- harvard's top quality wins (is that enough?)
vs
- tosu's head to head(s) and inside the cut line rpi giving them pole position

my guess is tosu wins out

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

Notre Dame comes back to win 16-14.

fieldystick · May 7, 2022

wgdsr said:
duke from bubble in/out to a 6 or 7 seed? or a 5 to keep rutgers away from umd?!?!

I still think bubble out. This was the outcome I was on the record for earlier this week. And I had OSU/ND in. Harvard/Duke out.

But you and Stevens have managed to put enough doubt in my mind that I’m going to give Duke one last look before I make a probably wrong call…

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

fieldystick said:
I still think bubble out. This was the outcome I was on the record for earlier this week. And I had OSU/ND in. Harvard/Duke out.

But you and Stevens have managed to put enough doubt in my mind that I’m going to give Duke one last look before I make a probably wrong call…

I expect to see Duke in.
They're Duke! Duke has built up a big lacrosse reputation over the last 15 years. Danowski! The committee will view the statistics with blue colored glasses and the numbers pertaining to Duke's 3 out-of-top 20 losses will be printed in blue and the committee will not see them.

Then there is Notre Dame with their huge sports reputation and a pretty good one for lacrosse.

Wouldn't you hate to be Harvard in this situation?

I'll go with Duke and Notre Dame.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

Zack80 said:
I expect to see Duke in.
They're Duke! Duke has built up a big lacrosse reputation over the last 15 years. Danowski! The committee will view the statistics with blue colored glasses and the numbers pertaining to Duke's 3 out-of-top 20 losses will be printed in blue and the committee will not see them.

Then there is Notre Dame with their huge sports reputation and a pretty good one for lacrosse.

Wouldn't you hate to be Harvard in this situation?

I'll go with Duke and Notre Dame.

numbers, lol. they'll be like #8 rpi. that's a problem this year for some reason? they'll also have 5 top 20 wins. which will be a record by 1 or 2 if they're out.

duke and nd, if they are in, are in on prior selection precedent.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

fieldystick said:
I still think bubble out. This was the outcome I was on the record for earlier this week. And I had OSU/ND in. Harvard/Duke out.

But you and Stevens have managed to put enough doubt in my mind that I’m going to give Duke one last look before I make a probably wrong call…

make your own call fieldy!!! you put tons more into it than i do. there's always the vagaries of the committee. potentially. we'll see if jax is a canary or a red herring.

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

wgdsr said:
numbers, lol. they'll be like #8 rpi. that's a problem this year for some reason? they'll also have 5 top 20 wins. which will be a record by 1 or 2 if they're out.

duke and nd, if they are in, are in on prior selection precedent.

Of course, Duke played 17 games.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

Zack80 said:
Of course, Duke played 17 games.

c'mon man. just stop. fieldy posted a vid from 2019, 4 criteria top 10 wins, top 20 wins, rpi and sos.
tosu has sos.
harvard has top 10 wins.
that's it.

he was lying (it's rpi), but even the cover doesn't give lead in for conspiracy theories.

btw, i'm fine with you valuing top wins. and ftr, there's one team in the entire nc$$ i'd be happy to see left out. guess hoo?

Zack80 · May 7, 2022

wgdsr said:
c'mon man. just stop. fieldy posted a vid from 2019, 4 criteria top 10 wins, top 20 wins, rpi and sos.
tosu has sos.
harvard has top 10 wins.
that's it.

he was lying (it's rpi), but even the cover doesn't give lead in for conspiracy theories.

btw, i'm fine with you valuing top wins. and ftr, there's one team in the entire nc$$ i'd be happy to see left out. guess hoo?

The Wahoos? They don't have any top ten wins.

wgdsr · May 7, 2022

Zack80 said:
The Wahoos? They don't have any top ten wins.

so now you want to give duke and nd bids? i gave you that chance earlier, and you declined.

nyclax · May 7, 2022

Duke is in. Leaving a team out with the 8th best RPI would be unprecedented. And I doubt the committee is interested in breaking precedent. At least to that degree. Duke at 8 and Ohio State at 14 is no contest.

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