2022 Bracketology

[Zack80]

I don't see why everyone is counting Harvard out. 8-4 record, 3 top 20 RPI wins including #3 Princeton and #9 Brown, solid SOS, no bad losses.

 

[fieldystick]

I don't see why everyone is counting Harvard out. 8-4 record, 3 top 20 RPI wins including #3 Princeton and #9 Brown, solid SOS, no bad losses.

Because they don’t fit the narrative of the Duke/ND play-in game.

I think Harvard’s case is very strong on paper if ND beats Duke.

… but I suspect Harvard will be left out by the committee. And I want to hear why.

 

[wgdsr]

Because they don’t fit the narrative of the Duke/ND play-in game.

I think Harvard’s case is very strong on paper if ND beats Duke.

… but I suspect Harvard will be left out by the committee. And I want to hear why.

because tosu will have rpi and wins over both harvard and nd.

 

[wgdsr]

I don't see why everyone is counting Harvard out. 8-4 record, 3 top 20 RPI wins including #3 Princeton and #9 Brown, solid SOS, no bad losses.

they're boxed in.

 

[fieldystick]

because tosu will have rpi and wins over both harvard and nd.

8-4 Harvard vs 8-4 ND on paper for one spot. (Pretend Duke really is out if they lose.)

Run it. It’s close.

ND will probably be ahead in own RPI. Harvard has better wins. Losses are basically the same.

Add another Duke win for ND.

 

[wgdsr]

8-4 Harvard vs 8-4 ND on paper for one spot. (Pretend Duke really is out if they lose.)

Run it. It’s close.

ND will probably be ahead in own RPI. Harvard has better wins. Losses are basically the same.

Add another Duke win for ND.

View attachment 217048

but dook isn't out. and with one more win vs duke, they have 11 rpi. and the duke win. no longer close.

it's close if they lose, probably in harvard's favor. but tosu has them both.

 

[Zack80]

they're boxed in.

Seems insignificant, since with Harvard's quality wins, I would have them in front of UVa.

 

[wgdsr]

Seems insignificant, since with Harvard's quality wins, I would have them in front of UVa.

sure. but you're not on the committee. and the committee values rpi. you're saying who you'd rank to be in. i'm saying who will be in.

if it's a progressive committee, i'm wrong.

 

[fieldystick]

but dook isn't out.

Mm, maybe not. But the premise I presented was why Harvard is being ignored:

The answer is that they don’t fit that Duke/ND is a play-in game that ESPN has caught hold of.

Most years, I accuse the media of over-complicating the bubble. I think this year, they are over-simplifying it.

(I am not sold on that Duke is in with a loss. I was hellbent against it earlier this week, but I’m starting to reconsider. I think it depends on how certain metrics around the 5/10/20 lines fall)

 

[wgdsr]

Mm, maybe not. But the premise I presented was why Harvard is being ignored:

The answer is that they don’t fit that Duke/ND is a play-in game that ESPN has caught hold of.

Most years, I accuse the media of over-complicating the bubble. I think this year, they are over-simplifying it.

(I am not sold on that Duke is in with a loss. I was hellbent against it earlier this week, but I’m starting to reconsider. I think it depends on how certain metrics around the 5/10/20 lines fall)

haha. don't agree at all until i see something different. duke will be 9 or 10 rpi. imo, they are in and also don't abide by the espn nd/duke play-in game narrative either.

 

[fieldystick]

duke will be 9 or 10 rpi.

You know I don’t prescribe to straight RPI for at-larges. They haven’t done anything so egregious since 2017 to make me think it’s not a coincidence.

I will look more closely at Duke tonight.

This might be the year you make me believe.

If you make me believe, you’re going to save me a lot of work in future years. Instead of starting at spreadsheets for hours, I can just use the abacus to project RPIs and be done with it.

 

[fieldystick]

rpi.

Why did BU have to go and lose to army. They would have solved this for us.

 

[fieldystick]

rpi.

Question. Which snub in the 17-19 period sold you on that it wasn’t a coincidence? Below should be a link to the RPI lists we talked about two months ago.

Post in thread 'Johns Hopkins Game Preview (3/13, 4pm)'
Johns Hopkins Game Preview (3/13, 4pm)

 

[wgdsr]

Question. Which snub in the 17-19 period sold you on that it wasn’t a coincidence? Below should be a link to the RPI lists we talked about two months ago.

Post in thread 'Johns Hopkins Game Preview (3/13, 4pm)'
Johns Hopkins Game Preview (3/13, 4pm)

i think it was the 1st year. that's what fit. don't remember what team(s). and then the next 2 years confirmed, fo sho in 2019.
then the committee chair in 2019 was interviewed and confirmed it all himself.

 

[fieldystick]

i think it was the 1st year. that's what fit. and then the next 2 years confirmed, fo sho in 2019.
then the committee chair in 2019 was interviewed in 2019 and confirmed it all himself.

I’ll go back and watch the 19 show tonight. I have it recorded.

I scored 2019 the same at home, though. That’s why I’m not sold. I had Cornell first out. (Attached below)

I also had 17 and 18 the same they did. None of it felt strange to me.

I called the 21 bubble wrong, but I thought it was between Loyola and Army (which I’d argue it was). But we all know 2021 was weird.

 

[wgdsr]

I’ll go back and watch the 19 show tonight. I have it recorded.

I scored 2019 the same at home, though. That’s why I’m not sold. I had Cornell first out. (Attached below)

I also had 17 and 18 the same they did. None of it felt strange to me.

I called the 21 bubble wrong, but I thought it was between Loyola and Army (which I’d argue it was). But we all know 2021 was weird.

i didn't like hopkins' case in 19 vs cornell. 7 losses vs 8 wins isn't fantastic unless there's some big wins. if they're not 9 rpi vs cornell's 13, imo they're not in.

 

[fieldystick]

i didn't like hopkins' case in 19 vs cornell. 7 losses vs 8 wins isn't fantastic unless there's some big wins. if they're not 9 rpi vs cornell's 13, imo they're not in.

Took Mary-land from like maybe the #3 seed to last team in.

 

[wgdsr]

Took Mary-land from like maybe the #3 seed to last team in.

yes. but they don't select on rankings the week you beat them during the season. cornell beat #1 towson. there would be resumes of teams for days.

 

[fieldystick]

yes. but they don't select on rankings the week you beat them during the season. cornell beat #1 towson. there would be resumes of teams for days.

Yes, I know.

My thought was moreso, Hopkins wasn’t even really on the radar until they just about wrecked Maryland.

Whether that says more about 2019 Hopkins, 2019 Maryland, or the process - I don’t know.

 

[Zack80]

sure. but you're not on the committee. and the committee values rpi. you're saying who you'd rank to be in. i'm saying who will be in.

if it's a progressive committee, i'm wrong.

We'll see I guess. Until then I believe I shall follow the usual principles.

 

[wgdsr]

We'll see I guess. Until then I believe I shall follow the usual principles.

sigh. the committee already told u they don't follow the usual principles. and they're not even defined. how much weight % wise is supposed to be given to wins, for example?

and tosu's case over uva is what?

 

[wgdsr]

Yes, I know.

My thought was moreso, Hopkins wasn’t even really on the radar until they just about wrecked Maryland.

Whether that says more about 2019 Hopkins, 2019 Maryland, or the process - I don’t know.

right. unsaid but inferred by moi is umd's case was also better than hopkins. hopkins had what? head-to-head twice and probably sos? and h-to-h only if you match them up. so why was maryland last team in??? well, they WERE just rpi 12...

 

[Zack80]

sigh. the committee already told u they don't follow the usual principles. and they're not even defined. how much weight % wise is supposed to be given to wins, for example?

and tosu's case over uva is what?

I think that I said Harvard over UVa, based on better wins.

 

[wgdsr]

I think that I said Harvard over UVa, based on better wins.

fair enough. so duke and nd are in?

 

[Zack80]

fair enough. so duke and nd are in?

Notre Dame could only be in if they win.