ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.